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Boston by the Numbers

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Boston by the Numbers

  1. 1. Boston by the Numbers October 26, 2016
  2. 2. imagine.boston.gov @ImagineBos #ImagineBoston
  3. 3. imagine.boston.gov @ImagineBos #ImagineBoston
  4. 4. Since Fall 2015, we have had over 12,000+ interactions with Bostonians across the City to hear their vision and concerns for Boston in 2030 and beyond. Utile – can we show images of the visioning sessions, open houses, textizen, etc here imagine.boston.gov @ImagineBos #ImagineBoston
  5. 5. Today, we are here to talk about the opportunity – and the challenges – presented by Boston’s recent growth. Boston’s population has recovered from a mid- century decline, growing steadily between 1980 and 2010 and accelerating rapidly over the last five years. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census; U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census, 2014 1-Year American Community Survey imagine.boston.gov @ImagineBos #ImagineBoston
  6. 6. Boston wasn’t always growing. Declining industry, a movement to the suburbs and local race relations led to population loss. Population change over time benchmarked to 1950 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 1900-2010 U.S. Decennial Census, 2013 American Community Survey 1-year estimate; HR&A analysis -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 1950 1960 1970 1980 Boston 801,444 Population peak New York City, -10% Baltimore, -17% Philadelphia, -19% Washington D.C., -20% Boston, -30% 562,994 Lowest point in 20th century San Francisco, -12% % Change, 1950-1980 Seattle, -6% imagine.boston.gov @ImagineBos #ImagineBoston
  7. 7. Beginning in the 1980s, Boston began to recover population, entering a league with dynamic, knowledge-driven peer cities. Population change over time compared to 1980 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 1900-2010 U.S. Decennial Census, 2013 American Community Survey 1-year estimate; HR&A analysis -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 1980 1990 2000 2010 2013 Boston, 12% 629,182 New York City, 17% Baltimore, -21% Washington D.C., -3% % Change, 1980-2013 Boston, 562,994 1980 Philadelphia, -9% San Francisco, 20% Seattle, 26% 2013 CAGR: .2% CAGR: .26% CAGR: .47% CAGR: .62% imagine.boston.gov @ImagineBos #ImagineBoston
  8. 8. 6% Population growth to 656,051, 2010-2014 7% Job growth to 642,265, 2010-2014 Sources: EMSI, U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census, 2011-2014 1-year American Community Surveys, BRA Research Division Analysis 617,594 597,671 38,457 44,594 Population Jobs 2010 2014 This growth has accelerated over the past five years and is expected to continue, with over 700,000 residents expected by 2030. imagine.boston.gov @ImagineBos #ImagineBoston
  9. 9. BOSTON'S POPULATION PROJECTIONS: 2010 – 2030 BOSTON'S POPULATION: PAST AND FUTURE BPDA Research Division October, 2016
  10. 10. BOSTON'S POPULATION PROJECTIONS: 2010 – 2030TRENDS
  11. 11. 11 667,137 617,594 589,141 574,823 562,994 641,071 697,197 801,444 770,816781,188 748,060 670,585 560,892 500,000 550,000 600,000 650,000 700,000 750,000 800,000 850,000 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Boston's Population (1900-2015) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1900-2010 Decennial Census, 2015 Census Population Estimate, BPDA Research Division Analysis 2015  Boston’s population reached its peak in 1950, with just over 800,000 residents  Like many major U.S. cities, Boston experienced significant decline in the post-World War II era. By 1980, Boston’s population fell to under 563,000 residents  Since 1980, Boston’s population grew by 18%, with the 2010 Census marking the first time since 1970 that Boston’s population exceeded 600,000 people
  12. 12.  The population growth between 2000 and 2010 (4.8%) marks the first time in the last one hundred years that the population of Boston grew faster than that of the state (3.1%) 4.8% 2.5%2.1% -12.2% -8.1% -13.0% 4.0% -1.3% 4.4% 11.6% 19.6% 3.1% 5.5% 4.9% 0.8% 10.5% 9.8% 8.7% 1.6% 10.3% 14.4% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Population Growth for Boston and Massachusetts by Decade (1910 – 2010) Boston % Change Massachusetts % Change 1Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1910-2010 U.S. Decennial Census, BPDA Research Division Analysis
  13. 13.  Boston’s population growth between 2000 and 2010 compares favorably to most Northern cities. Other cities on this list – including Charlotte, Raleigh and Austin – benefit from their states’ liberal land annexation laws, which allow them to expand their populations by annexing adjacent land 1 46.3% 35.2% 20.4% 10.3% 10.2% 9.4% 8.2% 8.0% 7.5% 6.9% 5.7% 5.2% 4.8% 3.7% 2.6% 2.1% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.0% -4.6% -6.9% -8.3% -8.6% -25.0% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Raleigh, NC Charlotte, NC Austin, TX Portland, OR Miami, FL Phoenix, AZ Denver, CO Seattle, WA Houston, TX San Diego, CA San Jose, CA Washington, DC Boston, MA San Francisco, CA Los Angeles, CA New York, NY Atlanta, GA Dallas, TX Philadelphia, PA Minneapolis, MN Baltimore, MD Chicago, IL St. Louis, MO Pittsburgh, PA Detroit, MI Population Growth with Comparison Cities (2000 - 2010) This report’s consistent set of 25 comparison cities: the principal cities of the nation’s largest metropolitan areas, plus 3 cities whose highly educated metro area populations make them good comparisons for Boston. These include Raleigh, Austin and San Jose. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 U.S. Decennial Census, BPDA Research Division Analysis
  14. 14.  Since 1970, the foreign-born population has increased significantly, driving Boston’s population growth  From 1980 to 2000, all of Boston’s population growth was due to growth in the foreign-born population  Since 2000, both the foreign-born and native-born populations have been growing 801,444 697,938 641,071 562,994 574,283 589,141 617,594 669,469657,352 587,974 557,068 475,938 459,686 437,305 454,072 479,346 144,092 109,964 83,988 87,056 114,597 151,836 167,311 190,123 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Native and Foreign-born Components of Boston's Population (1950-2015) Total Population Native Born Foreign Born American Community Survey Estimates Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1950-2010 Decennial Census, 2006-2010 & 2015 American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis Note: Nativity components for 2010 come from the ACS and the Total comes from the Decennial Census so the components do not sum to the total shown. 2015
  15. 15.  In 2010, Boston’s population was 52% female, a higher proportion than the US and Massachusetts (50.8% and 51.6% respectively)  Between 2000 and 2010, the female population in Boston grew by 5.3%, while the male population grew slightly more slowly at 4.4% 1Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1950-2010 U.S. Decennial Census, 2015 1-Year American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis 388,180 334,707 295,240 265,526 275,972 283,588 295,951 322,149 413,264 362,490 345,831 297,468 298,311 305,553 321,643 347,320 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 Gender Component of Boston's Population (1950-2015) Males Females
  16. 16.  Demographic growth is based on (a) natural growth -- births minus deaths -- and (b) net migration  Natural growth in 2012 was 4,274 persons. The decline in deaths over the decade contributed to an increase in natural growth  Immigration also drives Boston's population growth in part because of the high number of births to immigrants - 40% of Boston births are to foreign-born mothers 1Source: Massachusetts Department of Public Health, BPDA Research Division Analysis 8,067 8,216 8,003 7,812 7,716 7,547 7,906 7,852 8,015 7,973 7,807 8,042 8,011 7,817 4,500 4,572 4,416 4,284 4,063 4,070 3,812 3,878 3,701 3,649 3,595 3,742 3,7803,567 3,644 3,587 3,528 3,653 3,477 4,040 4,137 4,272 4,158 4,447 4,269 4,037 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Boston Resident Births and Deaths (2000-2013) Births Deaths Natural Change
  17. 17.  The natural population growth of the White population went from negative in 2000 to positive in 2003 and continued to grow through 2012  The natural population growth of the Black/African American population remained positive but decreased due to a lower number of births  The natural population growth of the Latino population remained high, at 1,705 in 2012  Asian natural growth remained steady over the periods 2000-2012 1Source: Massachusetts Department of Public Health, Boston Public Health Commission Research and Evaluation Office, BPDA Research Division Analysis 541 508 470 448 452 441 540 1,499 1,373 1,158 1,330 1,125 1,200 1,172 1,585 1,618 1,404 1,517 1,507 1,461 1,705 -336 -194 204 297 762 916 768 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Boston Natural Population Growth by Race and Ethnicity (2000-2012) Asian Black Hispanic White
  18. 18.  Boston’s White population decreased from 80% of the population in 1970 to 47% in 2010  The share of the Hispanic/Latino population increased from 3% in 1970 to 18% of Boston’s population in 2010  The African American population shifted from 16% of the population in 1970 to 22% of the population in 2010  Hispanic and Asian immigration contribute heavily to Boston’s growing diversity 1Note: 2000 was the first year the Census compiled data on individuals who identified themselves as multiracial. Those who indicated “two or more races” are included in “Other” in 2000 and 2010 in this chart. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970 -2010 U.S. Decennial Census, 2015 American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis 79.8% 67.9% 59.0% 49.5% 47.0% 44.7% 15.8% 21.7% 23.8% 23.8% 22.4% 22.9% 2.6% 6.4% 10.8% 14.4% 17.5% 19.5% 2.7% 5.2% 7.5% 8.9% 9.5% 4.5% 4.1% 3.4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 Boston's Diverse Population 1970-2015 White Black / African American Hispanic / Latino Asian / Pacific Islander Other Race*
  19. 19. 19  Since 2000, Boston has become a “majority-minority” city. The non-white population is over 50% partly due to the growth of the foreign-born population from Latin America, the Caribbean, and Asia  This trend continued in 2010 with the minority population making up 53% of Boston’s population or about 328,231 residents 1.4% 1.7% 1.9% 2.3% 2.2% 2.3% 2.9% 3.3% 5.3% 9.8% 20.2% 32.1% 41.0% 50.5% 53.0% 98.6% 98.3% 98.1% 97.7% 97.8% 97.7% 97.1% 96.7% 94.7% 90.2% 79.8% 67.9% 59.0% 49.5% 47.0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Boston's Minority Population 1870-2010 Total non-White population White population Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1870-2010 U.S. Decennial Census, BPDA Research Division Analysis
  20. 20.  The Racial Diversity Index calculates the likelihood that two people randomly chosen from a geographic area are from a different racial or ethnic group  The Diversity Index shows that Boston and most of its neighborhoods, though not all of its neighborhoods, were more diverse in 2010 than in 2000  The Racial Diversity Index for the city as a whole increased from .64 to .66 between 2000 and 2010 20 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 Dorchester Harbor Islands Boston Mission Hill Roslindale Hyde Park Roxbury South End Jamaica Plain Allston East Boston West End Bay Village Fenway Brighton LMA Downtown West Roxbury Charlestown South Boston Mattapan Leather District Chinatown Back Bay South Boston Waterfront Beacon Hill North End Neighborhood Diversity Index (2000 - 2010) 2010 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 U.S. Decennial Census, BPDA Research Division Analysis Based on the methodology “Mapping the USA’s diversity from 1960 to 2060” USA TODAY
  21. 21. RACIAL DIVERSITY  Racial diversity by census tract increased dramatically in most of Boston from 1970 to 2010  In the maps, yellow represents census tracts with low racial diversity index scores, while red represents census tracts with high racial diversity 21 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970 - 2010 U.S. Decennial Census, BPDA Research Division Analysis
  22. 22. BLACK/AFRICAN AMERICAN POPULATION  In 1970, the Black/African American population was largely concentrated in the neighborhoods of Roxbury and parts of Dorchester and Mattapan (tracts colored red in the maps at right)  In 2010 that concentration was still evident, although the Black/African American population had increased throughout Dorchester, Mattapan, and Hyde Park 22Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970 - 2010 U.S. Decennial Census, BPDA Research Division Analysis
  23. 23. HISPANIC POPULATION 23 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970-2010 U.S. Decennial Census, BPDA Research Division Analysis  The Hispanic population has grown significantly since 1970 with large communities with large communities forming in East Boston and Jamaica Plain (colored red in maps at right)
  24. 24. 24 34% 35% 35% 36% 30% 18% 13% 16% 20% 26% 27% 28% 17% 21% 24% 25% 25% 30% 32% 28% 25% 20% 15% 11% 9% 9% 10% 12% 15% 16% 10% 13% 14% 13% 15% 14% 15% 13% 12% 9% 7% 5% 5% 6% 8% 11% 13% 13% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 Proportion of Population that is Foreign-Born (1850-2015) Boston Massachusetts United States Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1850-2010 Decennial Census, 2015 American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis  Restrictive immigration policies 1925-1970 reduced the foreign born population and limited Boston’s population growth  Since 1970, Boston foreign-born share has increased from 13% to 28%
  25. 25. FOREIGN BORN POPULATION  The percentage of the population that is foreign- born has increased in most census tracts in Boston since 1970  In the maps at right, yellow census tracts have a foreign-born population of less than 10%  In the red census tracts, foreign-born residents make up more than 60% of the population 25Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970-2010 U.S. Decennial Census, BPDA Research Division Analysis
  26. 26. 26 0.6% 4.8% 3.3% 9.0% 10.1% 12.4% 25.2% 32.3% 45.1% 49.3% 50.3% 49.3% 8.0% 16.0% 21.0% 24.2% 25.3% 25.6% 63.6% 37.9% 24.2% 17.5% 14.3% 12.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 Region of Origin of Boston's Immigrants Africa Americas Asia Europe Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970-2010 Decennial Census, 2015 1-year American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis  In 1970, a majority of Boston’s immigrants had come from Europe  Since then, increasing shares of immigrants have come from the Americas, Asia, and Africa
  27. 27. 27 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 1-year American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis 2.1% 2.1% 3.7% 4.0% 5.2% 5.5% 5.6% 8.2% 10.5% 12.5% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Guatemala India Jamaica Colombia Vietnam El Salvador Cape Verde Haiti Dominican Republic China Percent of Foreign-born Population Top Ten Countries of Origin for Boston’s Foreign Born - 2015  Boston’s foreign-born population comes from more than 100 countries. The largest foreign born populations in Boston are Chinese, Dominican, and Haitian
  28. 28. 28 32.9 28.1 28.9 30.4 31.1 30.8 32.1 29.5 31.2 33.4 36.5 39.1 29.5 30.0 32.9 35.3 30.8 31.8 37.2 37.8 39.1 39.4 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Median Age in Boston/MA/US (1950-2015) Boston Massachusetts U.S. 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1950-2010 Decennial Census, 2015 American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis  The median age in Massachusetts and the U.S. has risen significantly since 1970  While the median age in Boston has also risen, the large young adult population keeps Boston’s median age below that of Massachusetts or the U.S.
  29. 29. 29 50,000 30,000 10,000 10,000 30,000 50,000 0 to 4 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84 85 Plus 2015 ACS 50,000 30,000 10,000 10,000 30,000 50,000 Female Male 1980 50,000 30,000 10,000 10,000 30,000 50,000 2010  Boston has a large young adult population, as shown in the population pyramids below. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1980, 2010 Decennial Census, 2015 1-year American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis
  30. 30.  Households are made up of one or more persons (unrelated individuals or families) sharing a housing unit  Boston’s average household size fell significantly from 3.4 in 1950 to 2.4 in 1980 and remained steady through 2010  Since 1950, Boston’s average household size has been lower than that of the U.S. 30Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1950-2000 U.S. Decennial Census, 2006-2010 American Community Survey, 2015 American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis 3.4 3.0 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.7 2 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3 3.2 3.4 3.6 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Average Household Size (1950-2015) Boston USA ACS Estimates 2015
  31. 31. 31 2.86 2.84 2.83 2.82 2.66 2.51 2.43 2.39 2.34 2.29 2.18 2.11 2.06 1.93 1.88 1.77 1.69 1.67 1.63 1.62 1.56 1.55 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 Dorchester Mattapan East Boston Hyde Park Roslindale Roxbury Mission Hill Jamaica Plain West Roxbury Allston South Boston Charlestown Brighton South End South Boston Waterfront Downtown North End Beacon Hill Back Bay Fenway Longwood West End Average Household Size by Neighborhood (2013) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009-2013 American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis  Boston’s neighborhoods vary by average household size. In 2013, Dorchester, Mattapan, East Boston and Hyde Park had the highest average household sizes, while Back Bay, Fenway, Longwood and the West End had the lowest
  32. 32. 32  The share of Boston’s population that is single, never-married, has been rising from 33.1% in 1950 to 56.4% in 2010 – considerably higher than the national share  The percentage of Boston’s population that is married has been falling proportionately, from 55.4% in 1950 to 31.9% in 2010 Note: Age 14+ for 1950-1970; Age 15+ for 1980-2010. Separated is included in married for 1950, 2000, & 2010. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Decennial Census 1950-2000, 2006-2010 American Community Survey, 2009-2013 American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis. 33.1% 33.5% 39.5% 47.2% 50.9% 50.5% 56.4% 56.6% 55.4% 51.2% 43.4% 33.9% 31.7% 36.6% 31.9% 31.4% 11.5% 15.3% 17.1% 18.9% 17.4% 12.9% 11.7% 12.0% 23.1% 22.1% 25.4% 26.3% 26.9% 27.1% 31.0% 33.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2013 %of14/15+Population Marital Status of Boston's Population (1950-2013) Boston Single Boston Married Boston Widowed or Divorced U.S. Single
  33. 33. 33  More people are living alone, and the average household size declined between 1960 and 1980  Only 30.4% of households have more than 2 people in 2015, down from 49.2% in 1960 Note: The slides on household and family composition begin in the year of first available data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1960-2010 U.S. Decennial Census; 2015American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis 23.9% 28.9% 36.8% 35.5% 37.1% 37.7% 37.3% 26.8% 28.7% 29.0% 29.5% 29.6% 31.1% 32.2% 17.3% 15.1% 13.9% 14.9% 14.3% 14.9% 14.9% 13.4% 10.9% 9.3% 10.3% 9.8% 9.8% 9.0% 8.9% 6.9% 5.4% 5.4% 5.3% 4.1% 4.0%9.6% 9.5% 5.6% 4.5% 3.9% 2.3% 2.5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 OccupiedHousingUnits Boston Households by Number of People (1960-2015) Total Occupied Units 1 person in unit 2 persons 3 persons 4 persons 5 persons 6 or more persons
  34. 34. 34  A family or family household consists of a householder living with one or more other people related to the householder by birth, marriage, or adoption  The percentage of Boston households that are families has been consistently lower than the national average  This trend corresponds with the falling percentage of Boston residents who are married, and the falling share of children as a percentage of the population Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970-2010 U.S. Decennial Census, 2009-2013 American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis 64.8% 53.3% 50.7% 48.1% 46.0% 77.4% 67.7% 64.0% 61.5% 60.0% 80.3% 73.2% 70.2% 68.1% 66.8% 47.2% 60.8% 66.4% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 %ofTotalHouseholds Family Households (1970-2013) Boston Greater Boston area United States ACS Estimates 2013
  35. 35. 35  The percentage of family households that were headed by a married couple fell from 1970 to 1990. Since 1990, a little over half of family households have included a married couple Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970-2010 U.S. Decennial Census, 2009-2013 American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis 72.5% 63.0% 58.6% 58.6% 55.5% 56.4% 4.9% 6.6% 8.3% 8.3% 9.0% 10.1% 22.6% 30.4% 33.1% 33.1% 35.5% 33.5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 Family Households by Family Type ( 1970-2015) Married Unmarried Male Householder Unmarried Female Householder
  36. 36. 36  The percentage of Boston households that include at least one person under age 18 has been falling and remains below national and regional levels Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970-2010 U.S. Decennial Census, 2009-2013 American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis 31.6% 27.0% 24.8% 25.6% 22.9% 41.5% 33.0% 29.1% 30.7% 30.3% 44.1% 37.9% 33.6% 36.0% 33.5% 23.6% 29.8% 32.9% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Households with Children under 18 (1970-2013) Boston MAPC Region United States ACS Estimates 2013
  37. 37. 37  Boston has a smaller percentage of households with a person over age 65 than either the Greater Boston region or the nation  In 2013, 38.8% of Boston residents 65 and over lived in a single-person household  52.7% of Boston seniors lived in family households in 2013 and 8.0% of them lived with a son or daughter Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000-2010 U.S. Decennial Census, 2009-2013 American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis 18.9% 19.0% 19.6% 24.1% 23.6% 25.2% 23.4% 24.0% 25.5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2000 2010 2013 %ofallhouseholds Households with person over age 65 Boston Greater Boston region United States
  38. 38. BOSTON'S POPULATION PROJECTIONS: 2010 – 2030 2030 PROJECTION S
  39. 39. 39 667,137 617,594 589,141 574,823 562,994 641,071 697,197 801,444 770,816781,188 748,060 670,585 560,892 500,000 550,000 600,000 650,000 700,000 750,000 800,000 850,000 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Boston's Population (1900-2015) Driven by immigration & increasing student population Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1900-2010 Decennial Census, 2015 Census Population Estimate, BPDA Research Division Analysis 2015 Driven by annexation of land, immigration, & natural change: births-deaths Driven by lower international migration and out-migration of families (suburbanization)
  40. 40. 401930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1900-2010 Decennial Census, 2015 Census Population Estimate, BPDA Research Division Analysis 50,000 30,000 10,000 10,000 30,000 50,000 0-4 Years 5-9 Years 10-14 Years 15-19 Years 20-24 Years 25-29 Years 30-34 Years 35-39 Years 40-44 Years 45-49 Years 50-54 Years 55-59 Years 60-64 Years 65-69 Years 70-75 Years 75-79 Years 80-84 Years 85 Years or older 50,000 30,000 10,000 10,000 30,000 50,000 Female Male 1980 50,000 30,000 10,000 10,000 30,000 50,000 2010 Boston’s Population by Age and Sex 1950
  41. 41. 41 COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE Deaths Natural Change Migration Population Base Births Domestic In- Migration Projected Population Domestic Out- Migration Net International Migration = + - + - +
  42. 42. 42 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 0-4 Years 5-9 Years 10-14 Years 15-19 Years 20-24 Years 25-29 Years 30-34 Years 35-39 Years 40-44 Years 45-49 Years 50-54 Years 55-59 Years 60-64 Years 65-69 Years 70-75 Years 75-79 Years 80-84 Years 85 Years or older Boston -2010 Decennial Census Female Male  Population Base: Boston’s 2010 population of 617,594 POPULATION BASE Population Base Births Deaths Domestic In-Migration Domestic Out-Migration Net International Migration Projected Population - + += + - Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census, BPDA Research Division Analysis
  43. 43. 43 2.3% 4.6% 6.2% 7.9% 5.7% 1.4% 0.1% 1.4% 2.8% 4.3% 8.9% 6.9% 1.9% 0.2% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 MaternalBirthRate Mother’s Age at Birth Boston’s Age-Specific Annual Birth Rates 2006 to 2009 Average 2010 to 2014 Average  Boston has averaged 7,900 births a year since 2000  Overall fertility has declined slightly and shifted to older mothers BIRTHS Source: Massachusetts Department of Public Health, Births to Boston Residents, 2006-2014 & U.S. Census Bureau, 2006-2014 1-year American Community Survey, 2010 Decennial Census, BPDA Research Division Analysis Population Base Births Deaths Domestic In-Migration Domestic Out-Migration Net International Migration Projected Population - + += + -
  44. 44. 44 16.5% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% less than 1 1-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60- 64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 One-yearDeathRate Boston Gender Specific One-Year Death Rates by Age, 2010-2013 Male average 1-year Death Rate Female average 1-year Death Rate DEATHS Source: Massachusetts Department of Public Health, Boston Resident Deaths 2010-2013 & U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census, 2011-2013 1-year American Community Survey, BPDA Research Division Analysis  Boston deaths have been declining from an average of 4,496 a year from 2000 to 2002 to an average of 3,692 a year from 2010 to 2013 Population Base Births Deaths Domestic In-Migration Domestic Out-Migration Net International Migration Projected Population - + += + -
  45. 45. 45 NATURAL CHANGE IN POPULATION Source: Massachusetts Department of Public Health, Boston Resident Births and Deaths 2000-2013, BPDA Research Division Analysis  Births outnumber deaths in Boston by about 3,500 to 4,000 a year  In the absence of migration, Boston’s population would have grown by this amount through natural change 3,567 3,644 3,587 3,528 3,653 3,477 4,042 4,040 4,137 4,272 4,158 4,447 4,269 4,037 - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 BirthsminusDeaths Natural Change in Boston's Population, 2000-2013 Population Base Births Deaths Domestic In-Migration Domestic Out-Migration Net International Migration Projected Population - + += + -
  46. 46. 46  The BPDA migration methodology measures three types of migration  Domestic in-migration: people who move to Boston from elsewhere in the United States  Domestic in-migration rate is the percentage of the U.S. population outside of Boston that moves to Boston  Domestic out-migration: people who move from Boston to elsewhere in the United States  Domestic out-migration rate is the percentage of the Boston population that moves elsewhere in the United States  Net international migration: net movement of people to Boston from other countries and from Boston to other countries  Net international migration rate is the net percentage of Boston residents who moved internationally Population Base Births Deaths Domestic In-Migration Domestic Out-Migration Net International Migration Projected Population - + += + -
  47. 47. 47 NET MIGRATION Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007-2014 1-year American Community Survey, PUMS, BPDA Research Division Analysis  From 2007 to 2014, Boston had a net gain on average of 2,376 people per year due to migration. This positive net migration is due to the large influx of 17 to 24 year olds -1,310 -413 9,046 2,873 -1,736 -2,404 -1,310 -1,101 -204 -199 -36 -224 -271 -186 -34 -12 -103 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 0-4 5-16 17-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ AverageAnnualNetMigration Age Average Annual Net Migration 2007 to 2014 Population Base Births Deaths Domestic In-Migration Domestic Out-Migration Net International Migration Projected Population - + += + -
  48. 48. 48  Natural change explains the U.S. population pyramid well: births replenish the 0-4 cohort and deaths gradually diminish the older cohorts  However, migration is a more important factor in Boston’s population, creating a bulge in the young adult years and making projections much more difficult Source: U. S. Census Bureau, 2010, U.S. Decennial Census , BPDA Research Division Analysis 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 0-4 Years 5-9 Years 10-14 Years 15-19 Years 20-24 Years 25-29 Years 30-34 Years 35-39 Years 40-44 Years 45-49 Years 50-54 Years 55-59 Years 60-64 Years 65-69 Years 70-75 Years 75-79 Years 80-84 Years 85 Years or older United States - 2010 Decennial Census Female Male 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 0-4 Years 5-9 Years 10-14 Years 15-19 Years 20-24 Years 25-29 Years 30-34 Years 35-39 Years 40-44 Years 45-49 Years 50-54 Years 55-59 Years 60-64 Years 65-69 Years 70-75 Years 75-79 Years 80-84 Years 85 Years or older Boston - 2010 Decennial Census Female Male Domestic Out-migration Domestic & International In-migration Domestic Out-migration Deaths Births
  49. 49. United States Average annual migration flows to and from Boston (2007-2014):  Domestic In-migration = 54,407  Domestic Out-migration = 58,101  Net International Migration = 6,070 Boston Greater Boston -5,138Massachusetts + 350 +1,095 World United States MIGRATION FLOWS Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007-2014 1-year American Community Surveys, BPDA Research Division Analysis
  50. 50. 50 BPDA population projection methodology yields a projected Boston population of 723,500 in 2030 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1900-2010 Decennial Census, 2010-2030 Population Projections, BPDA Research Division Analysis Population Base Births Deaths Domestic In-Migration Domestic Out-Migration Net International Migration Projected Population - + += + - 560,892 670,585 748,060 781,188 770,816 801,444 697,197 641,071 562,994 574,823 589,141 617,594617,594 676,000 723,500 500,000 550,000 600,000 650,000 700,000 750,000 800,000 850,000 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Decennial Census BPDA Projection
  51. 51. COMPARISON TO OTHER POPULATION PROJECTIONS 51 Source: Reardon, Tim & Hari, Meghna, “Metro Boston 2030 Population and Housing Demand Projections,” MAPC, 2014. Renski, Henry & Strate, Susan “Long-Term Population Projections for Massachusetts Regions and Municipalities,” UMDI, 2014. BPDA Research Division Analysis 562,994 574,823 589,141 617,594 709,500 723,500 752,000 500,000 550,000 600,000 650,000 700,000 750,000 800,000 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Decennial Census MAPC Projection BPDA Projection Donahue Projection
  52. 52. 52 THE PROJECTIONS DATABASE AND MODEL CAN BE UPDATED AS NEW DATA BECOME AVAILABLE BPDA PROJECTIONS ARE BASED ON MOST UP-TO-DATE DATA:  2010 Census from U.S. Census Bureau (Population Base)  2010-2014 birth and death data from Massachusetts Department of Public Health (Natural Change)  2007-2014 migration data from U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Surveys (Migration)

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