Operating AssumptionsMatch Valuation Model - Operating AssumptionsModel Timing AssumptionsProjected Fiscal Years Ending Dec 312016201720182019202020212022202320242025Projected Fiscal Years Ending Dec 312016201720182019202020212022202320242025Segmented RevenuesDirect RevenueNorth America6747419021,0341,1921,3771,5781,8172,0912,403 Growth rate-10.0%21.7%14.6%15.3%15.6%14.6%15.1%15.1%14.9% % of Total Revenue60.3%55.7%52.2%50.4%47.5%44.8%42.5%40.4%38.3%36.4%International3935407759741,2721,6542,0942,6403,3144,145 Growth rate-37.2%43.5%25.7%30.6%30.0%26.6%26.1%25.6%25.1% % of Total Revenue35.2%40.6%44.8%47.5%50.7%53.8%56.3%58.6%60.8%62.8%Total Direct Revenue1,0671,2811,6772,0082,4643,0323,6724,4575,4056,549 Growth rate-20.0%30.9%19.7%22.7%23.0%21.1%21.4%21.3%21.2%Average SubscribersNorth America3,2683,5694,1614,7915,4386,1727,0057,9519,02510,243 Growth rate Base-9.2%16.6%15.1%13.5%13.5%13.5%13.5%13.5%13.5% Base13.5%13.5%13.5%13.5%13.5%13.5% Bear12.5%12.5%12.5%12.5%12.5%12.5%International2,1402,8393,7125,0186,4238,22110,52313,15416,44220,553 Growth rate Base-32.7%30.8%35.2%28.0%28.0%28.0%25.0%25.0%25.0% Base28.0%28.0%28.0%25.0%25.0%25.0% Bear26.5%26.5%26.5%23.5%23.5%23.5%North America to International152.7%125.7%112.1%95.5%84.7%75.1%66.6%60.4%54.9%49.8%Total5,4086,4087,8739,80911,86114,39317,52821,10525,46730,796 Growth rate-18.5%22.9%24.6%20.9%21.4%21.8%20.4%20.7%20.9%ARPUNorth America0.210.210.220.220.220.220.230.230.230.23 Growth rate-0.7%4.4%(0.5%)1.5%1.8%1.0%1.4%1.4%1.3%International0.180.190.210.190.200.200.200.200.200.20 Growth rate-3.4%9.7%(7.0%)2.1%1.6%-1.1%0.8%0.4%0.1%Total0.200.200.210.200.210.210.210.210.210.21 Growth rate-1.3%6.5%(3.9%)1.5%1.4%(0.5%)0.8%0.5%0.2%Indirect RevenueIndirect Revenue51495343434344464748 Growth rate--2.6%6.6%-17.5%0.0%0.0%2.0%3.0%3.0%3.0% % of Total Revenue4.5%3.7%3.0%2.1%1.7%1.4%1.2%1.0%0.9%0.7%Total Indirect Revenue51495343434344464748 Growth rate-(2.6%)6.6%(17.5%)-%-%2.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%Total GAAP revenuesTotal revenues 1,1181,3311,7302,0512,5073,0753,7164,5025,4526,597Growth rate-19.0%30.0%18.6%22.2%22.6%20.9%21.1%21.1%21.0%COGS, SG&A, Other ExpensesRevenues 1,1181,3311,7302,0512,5073,0753,7164,5025,4526,597Expenses as % of revenue Cost of revenues Base(17.5%)(21.0%)(23.7%)(25.7%)(23.5%)(24.3%)(24.5%)(24.1%)(24.3%)(24.3%)Base(23.5%)(24.3%)(24.5%)(24.1%)(24.3%)(24.3%)Bear(25.0%)(25.8%)(26.0%)(25.6%)(25.8%)(25.8%) Selling General & Admin Exp. Base(44.1%)(41.3%)(34.7%)(33.3%)(36.4%)(34.8%)(34.8%)(35.4%)(35.0%)(35.1%)Base(36.4%)(34.8%)(34.8%)(35.4%)(35.0%)(35.1%)Bear(38.4%)(36.8%)(36.8%)(37.4%)(37.0%)(37.1%) Stock-Based Compensation(0.2%)(1.0%)(0.0%)-%-%-%-%-%-%-% R & D Exp.(7.0%)(7.6%)(7.6%)(7.4%)(7.5%)(7.5%)(7.5%)(7.5%)(7.5%)(7.5%) Other operating expenses-%-%-%-%-%-%-%-%-%-%EBITDA Margin31.2%29.1%33.9%33.6%(90.7%)(88.3%)(88.9%)(89.3%)(88.8%)(89.0%)Working CapitalAccounts receivable (% of revenues)5.7%8.8%5.7%5.7%7.4%6.9%7.3%7.9%8.1%8.6%Unearned Reve.
Operating AssumptionsMatch Valuation Model - Operating Assumptions.docx
1. Operating AssumptionsMatch Valuation Model - Operating
AssumptionsModel Timing AssumptionsProjected Fiscal Years
Ending Dec
312016201720182019202020212022202320242025Projected
Fiscal Years Ending Dec
312016201720182019202020212022202320242025Segmented
RevenuesDirect RevenueNorth
America6747419021,0341,1921,3771,5781,8172,0912,403
Growth rate-
10.0%21.7%14.6%15.3%15.6%14.6%15.1%15.1%14.9% % of
Total
Revenue60.3%55.7%52.2%50.4%47.5%44.8%42.5%40.4%38.3
%36.4%International3935407759741,2721,6542,0942,6403,3144
,145 Growth rate-
37.2%43.5%25.7%30.6%30.0%26.6%26.1%25.6%25.1% % of
Total
Revenue35.2%40.6%44.8%47.5%50.7%53.8%56.3%58.6%60.8
%62.8%Total Direct
Revenue1,0671,2811,6772,0082,4643,0323,6724,4575,4056,549
Growth rate-
20.0%30.9%19.7%22.7%23.0%21.1%21.4%21.3%21.2%Averag
e SubscribersNorth
America3,2683,5694,1614,7915,4386,1727,0057,9519,02510,24
3 Growth rate Base-
9.2%16.6%15.1%13.5%13.5%13.5%13.5%13.5%13.5%
Base13.5%13.5%13.5%13.5%13.5%13.5%
Bear12.5%12.5%12.5%12.5%12.5%12.5%International2,1402,8
393,7125,0186,4238,22110,52313,15416,44220,553 Growth
rate Base-
32.7%30.8%35.2%28.0%28.0%28.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%
Base28.0%28.0%28.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%
Bear26.5%26.5%26.5%23.5%23.5%23.5%North America to
International152.7%125.7%112.1%95.5%84.7%75.1%66.6%60.
4%54.9%49.8%Total5,4086,4087,8739,80911,86114,39317,528
2. 21,10525,46730,796 Growth rate-
18.5%22.9%24.6%20.9%21.4%21.8%20.4%20.7%20.9%ARPUN
orth America0.210.210.220.220.220.220.230.230.230.23
Growth rate-
0.7%4.4%(0.5%)1.5%1.8%1.0%1.4%1.4%1.3%International0.18
0.190.210.190.200.200.200.200.200.20 Growth rate-
3.4%9.7%(7.0%)2.1%1.6%-
1.1%0.8%0.4%0.1%Total0.200.200.210.200.210.210.210.210.21
0.21 Growth rate-
1.3%6.5%(3.9%)1.5%1.4%(0.5%)0.8%0.5%0.2%Indirect
RevenueIndirect Revenue51495343434344464748 Growth rate-
-2.6%6.6%-17.5%0.0%0.0%2.0%3.0%3.0%3.0% % of Total
Revenue4.5%3.7%3.0%2.1%1.7%1.4%1.2%1.0%0.9%0.7%Total
Indirect Revenue51495343434344464748 Growth rate-
(2.6%)6.6%(17.5%)-%-%2.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%Total GAAP
revenuesTotal revenues
1,1181,3311,7302,0512,5073,0753,7164,5025,4526,597Growth
rate-
19.0%30.0%18.6%22.2%22.6%20.9%21.1%21.1%21.0%COGS,
SG&A, Other ExpensesRevenues
1,1181,3311,7302,0512,5073,0753,7164,5025,4526,597Expense
s as % of revenue Cost of revenues
Base(17.5%)(21.0%)(23.7%)(25.7%)(23.5%)(24.3%)(24.5%)(24.
1%)(24.3%)(24.3%)Base(23.5%)(24.3%)(24.5%)(24.1%)(24.3%)
(24.3%)Bear(25.0%)(25.8%)(26.0%)(25.6%)(25.8%)(25.8%)
Selling General & Admin Exp.
Base(44.1%)(41.3%)(34.7%)(33.3%)(36.4%)(34.8%)(34.8%)(35.
4%)(35.0%)(35.1%)Base(36.4%)(34.8%)(34.8%)(35.4%)(35.0%)
(35.1%)Bear(38.4%)(36.8%)(36.8%)(37.4%)(37.0%)(37.1%)
Stock-Based Compensation(0.2%)(1.0%)(0.0%)-%-%-%-%-%-
%-% R & D
Exp.(7.0%)(7.6%)(7.6%)(7.4%)(7.5%)(7.5%)(7.5%)(7.5%)(7.5%
)(7.5%) Other operating expenses-%-%-%-%-%-%-%-%-%-
%EBITDA
Margin31.2%29.1%33.9%33.6%(90.7%)(88.3%)(88.9%)(89.3%)
(88.8%)(89.0%)Working CapitalAccounts receivable (% of
3. revenues)5.7%8.8%5.7%5.7%7.4%6.9%7.3%7.9%8.1%8.6%Une
arned Revenue (% of
revenues)14.4%14.9%12.1%10.7%12.6%11.8%11.7%12.0%11.8
%11.8%Accounts payable (% of cost of
revenues)(3.8%)(3.6%)(2.3%)(3.8%)(3.3%)(3.1%)(3.4%)(3.3%)(
3.3%)(3.3%)Accrued expenses (% of cost of
revenues)(26.3%)(21.2%)(19.3%)(33.9%)(24.8%)(26.0%)(28.2
%)(26.3%)(26.9%)(27.1%)working capital -77.5-146.7-198.6-
207.0-200.4-274.0-355.4-410.7-506.8-609.4PP&E, Depreciation
and Capex AssumptionsNet PP&E as % of
Revenues5.6%4.6%3.4%5.3%5.4%5.4%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%Dep
reciation as % of Net
PP&E(44.0%)(53.0%)(56.5%)(29.7%)(45.0%)(45.0%)(45.0%)(4
5.0%)(45.0%)(45.0%)Capex as % of
revenues(4.1%)(2.2%)(1.8%)(1.9%)(3.0%)(3.0%)(3.0%)(3.0%)(
3.0%)(3.0%)PP&E beginning balance
(net)109135167203247299Depreciation28333332496175911111
35Capex(46)(29)(31)(39)(75)(92)(111)(135)(164)(198)PP&E
ending balance (net)636258109135167203247299363DebtTotal
Debt ending
balance1,1761,2531,5161,6031,9322,3942,7453,2954,0154,819I
nterest
expense(82)(78)(73)(92)(111)(137)(157)(188)(230)(276)Interest
expense as % of total
debt(7.0%)(6.2%)(4.8%)(5.7%)(5.7%)(5.7%)(5.7%)(5.7%)(5.7%
)(5.7%)New
issuance4005252603906377137661,0031,2351,465New issuance
as % of Operating
expenses69.7%79.0%35.5%46.7%57.8%54.8%48.7%52.0%53.3
%52.2%Debt repayment1445- 0300308251415453515662Debt
repayment as % of total debt37.8%-
%19.8%19.2%13.0%17.3%16.5%15.6%16.5%Total debt
beginning
balance1,1761,2531,5161,6031,9322,3942,7453,2954,015Other
AssumptionsAmortization as of % Goodwill and
Intangibles(1.2%)(0.1%)(0.1%)(0.6%)-0.3%-0.3%-0.4%-0.3%-
4. 0.3%-0.4%TaxesTax
Rate26.1%(41.2%)3.0%3.7%20.0%20.0%20.0%20.0%20.0%20.0
%
FinancialsMatch Valuation Model - FinancialsHistorical and
Projected Income StatementProjected Fiscal Years Ending Dec
31($ in millions of U.S. dollars except per share
amounts)2016201720182019202020212022202320242025Total
Direct
Revenue1,0671,2811,6772,0082,4643,0323,6724,4575,4056,549
Total Indirect Revenue51495343434344464748Total GAAP
accounting
revenues1,1181,3311,7302,0512,5073,0753,7164,5025,4526,597
Cost of
revenues(196)(279)(410)(527)(588)(747)(910)(1,084)(1,324)(1,
602)Gross
profit9221,0511,3201,5241,9192,3282,8063,4184,1284,995Marg
in82.5%79.0%76.3%74.3%76.5%75.7%75.5%75.9%75.7%75.7%
Selling General & Admin
Exp.(493)(550)(600)(682)(913)(1,070)(1,294)(1,592)(1,908)(2,3
13)Stock-Based Compensation(2)(13)(1)-------R & D
Exp.(78)(101)(132)(152)(189)(231)(278)(339)(410)(495)Other
operating expenses----------
EBITDA3493875876908161,0271,2331,4881,8112,187Margin31
.2%29.1%33.9%33.6%32.6%33.4%33.2%33.0%33.2%33.1%Dep
reciation(28)(33)(33)(32)(49)(61)(75)(91)(111)(135)Amort. of
Goodwill and
Intangibles(17)(1)(1)(9)(4)(5)(6)(5)(5)(5)EBIT30435355364976
39611,1531,3921,6952,047Margin27.2%26.5%32.0%31.6%30.4
%31.3%31.0%30.9%31.1%31.0%16%57%17%18%26%20%21%
22%21%Interest
expense(82)(78)(73)(92)(111)(137)(157)(188)(230)(276)Interest
income--5-------Currency Exchange Gains (Loss)20(10)5-------
Other Non-Operating Inc. (Exp.)(1)(13)(2)(2)------Earnings
before taxes2412524885556538249961,2031,4651,771Tax
expense(63)104(15)(20)(131)(165)(199)(241)(293)(354)Net
income (loss)1783564735345226597979631,1721,417Earnings
5. of Discontinued Ops.(6)(6)(0)-------Minority interest(1)(0)50---
---Net income attributable to
company1713504785355226597979631,1721,417Basic shares
outstanding252264277280280280280280280280Diluted shares
outstanding270296297295295295295295295295Diluted
earnings (loss) per
share0.641.181.611.811.772.232.703.263.974.80xHistorical and
Projected Cash Flow StatementProjected Fiscal Years Ending
Dec 312016201720182019202020212022202320242025Funds
From Operating ActivitiesNet income
(loss)1713504785355226597979631,1721,417Depreciation And
Amortization4534344153658196116140Stock-Based
Compensation52696690------Net Cash From Discontinued
Ops.4(6)--------Other Operating
Activities(17)(85)(24)1(33)4863297079Change in Acc.
Receivable(11)(52)17(18)(69)(26)(60)(85)(86)(123)Change in
Acc. Payable(24)(17)2129(1)484810Change in Unearned
Rev.1933139964871107104136Change in Inc. Taxes30(1)13(4)-
-----Change in Other Net Operating Assets(5)(11)(15)(24)------
Cash flow from operating
activities2643156036585697999591,1141,3841,659Funds From
Investing ActivitiesCapital
Expenditure(46)(29)(31)(39)(75)(92)(111)(135)(164)(198)Cash
Acquisitions(1)(0)1(4)------Divestitures-96--------Invest. in
Marketable & Equity Securt.1151(4)-------Net (Inc.) Dec. in
Loans Originated/Sold----------Other Investing
Activities4(0)(4)1------Cash flow from investing
activities(31)118(38)(42)(75)(92)(111)(135)(164)(198)Funds
From Financing ActivitiesShort Term Debt Issued----------Long-
Term Debt
Issued4005252603906377137661,0031,2351,465Total Debt
Issued4005252603906377137661,0031,2351,465Short Term
Debt Repaid----------Long-Term Debt Repaid(450)(445)-
(300)(308)(251)(415)(453)(515)(662)Total Debt
Repaid(450)(445)-
(300)(308)(251)(415)(453)(515)(662)Issuance of Common
6. Stock39590-------Repurchase of Common
Stock(30)(254)(341)(420)------Common Dividends Paid----------
Special Dividend Paid--(556)-------Other Financing
Activities(21)(309)(12)(7)------Cash flow from financing
activities(61)(424)(650)(337)329461351550721803Effect of
exchange rate on cash(6)10(2)(1)------Beginning cash
balance882542731874661,2882,4563,6545,1837,124Change in
cash &
equivalents16619(86)2798221,1681,1981,5291,9412,265Ending
cash
balance2542731874661,2882,4563,6545,1837,1249,389CheckO
KOKOKOKOKOKOKOKOKOKSupplemental ItemsCash
Interest Paid827271NACash Taxes Paid441522NALevered Free
Cash Flow61328422448Unlevered Free Cash
Flow112377468506Change in Net Working
Capital131(69)(52)(8)Net Debt Issued(50)8026090Net Cash
From Discontinued Ops. - Investing(4)(1)--xHistorical and
Projected Balance Sheet StatementProjected Fiscal Years
Ending Dec
312016201720182019202020212022202320242025CheckOKOK
OKOKOKOKOKOKOKOKAssetsCurrent AssetsCash &
equivalents2542731874661,2882,4563,6545,1837,1249,389Acco
unts Receivable, Net6411799116186212272357443565Deferred
Income Tax Asset (Short-Term)131619-------Other Current
Assets160393894949494949494Short-Term Investments---------
-Total Current
Assets4904453446761,5682,7624,0205,6347,66110,048Net
PP&E636258109135167203247299363Goodwill and other
intangibles1,4241,4781,4821,4681,4641,4591,4541,4491,4441,4
39Other Noncurrent Assets11112524242424242424Long-term
Investment551195555555Deferred Income Tax Asset (Long-
Term)5123134141141141141141141141Total
Assets2,0492,1302,0532,4243,3374,5585,8477,5009,57412,020
Liabilities & Shareholders EquityCurrent LiabilitiesAccounts
Payable7101020192331354353Accrued
Exp.515979179146194257286356435Curr. Port. of LT Debt-----
7. -----Unearned Revenue,
Current161198210219315363434541645781Other Current
Liabilities945157-------Total Current
Liabilities3143193554184805807228621,0441,269Long-Term
Debt1,1761,2531,5161,6031,9322,3942,7453,2954,0154,819Def.
Tax Liability, Non-Curr.25282018181818181818Other Non-
Current Liabilities30233664646464646464Total
Liabilities1,5461,6231,9272,1032,4943,0563,5484,2385,1416,16
9Common Stock0000000000Additional Paid-in Capital49181----
----Retained Earnings (Accumulated
Deficit)1825324549891,5112,1702,9673,9295,1016,519Treasury
Stock--(134)(350)(350)(350)(350)(350)(350)(350)Accumulated
Other Comprehensive
Income(176)(112)(195)(319)(319)(319)(319)(319)(319)(319)Tot
al Common
Equity4975011263208421,5022,2983,2614,4335,850Minority
Interest66-1111111Total Shareholders'
Equity5035071263218431,5022,2993,2624,4345,851Total
Liabilities & Shareholders'
Equity2,0492,1302,0532,4243,3374,5585,8477,5009,57512,020
CheckOK`OKOKOKOKOKOKOKOKOK
ValuationMatch Valuation ModelAssumptionsFinancials
SummaryHistoricalProjected Fiscal Years Ending March 3110-
Year US Treasury0.64%
Yunzhi FENG: Yunzhi FENG:
Last updated on May 6, 2020. Data source: FRED
Forecast
Summary20192020202120222023202420251.0Expected Market
Return6.67%Revenues2,0512,5073,0753,7164,5025,4526,5971.0
Market Risk Premium6.03%
Yunzhi FENG: Yunzhi FENG:
Last updated on May 1, 2020. Data source: Aswath Damodaran
WebsiteRevenue Growth
Rate18.6%22.2%22.6%20.9%21.1%21.1%21.0%1.0Beta1.02EBI
8. TDA6908161,0271,2331,4881,8112,1871.0CAPM Cost of
Equity6.8%EBITDA Growth
Rate17.5%18.4%25.8%20.1%20.6%21.7%20.8%1.0Cost of
Debt5.9%EBITDA
Margin33.6%32.6%33.4%33.2%33.0%33.2%33.1%1.0Tax
Rate25.0%Net income5345226597979631,1721,4171.0After-tax
Cost of Debt4.5%NI Growth
Rate13.0%(2.3%)26.3%20.8%20.8%21.8%20.9%1.0Target
Gearing10.0% NI
Margin26.1%20.8%21.4%21.4%21.4%21.5%21.5%1.0WACC6.6
%1.01.0Valuation date5-May-201.0Next year end date31-Dec-
201.01.01.0Match Valuation Model - Discounted Cash Flow
Valuation1.0FCFF Valuation 1.0($ in millions of U.S. dollars
except per share amounts)Projected Fiscal Years Ending March
311.0Free Cash Flows2020202120222023202420251.0EBIT *
(1-tax rate)6117699221,1131,3561,6381.0Depreciation And
Amortization536581961161401.0Non-cash Interest Adjustment-
-----1.0Capex(75)(92)(111)(135)(164)(198)1.0Net Change in
Working Capital(7)748155961031.0Free Cash Flows to Firm
(FCFF)3831,3522,5854,1326,5409,5161.0Years to
Discount0.661.662.663.664.665.661.0Cost of
Capital6.6%6.6%6.6%6.6%6.6%6.6%1.0Discount
Factor0.960.900.840.790.740.701.0PV Free Cash Flows to Firm
(FCFF)3671,2172,1843,2754,8666,6441.01.0FCFF Fair Value
Multiple Method1.0EBITDA Multiple16.9x
Yunzhi FENG: Yunzhi FENG:
Source: Siblis Research, Multiples of EV/EBITDA of Internet
companies1.0Terminal Year EBITDA2,1871.0Terminal
Value36,9131.0Present Value of Terminal
Value27,4611.0Terminal Value as % of Total
Value69.8%1.0Present Value of Forecast FCF11,9091.0Forecast
Period as % of Total Value30.2%1.0Enterprise Value39,3701.0-
Debt(2,098)1.0+ Cash7911.0Equity Value38,0631.0Shares
outstanding2831.0Fair Value Share Price134.591.0Current
Share Price80Upside68.0%Match Valuation Model - Residual
9. Income Valuation1.0Abnormal Earnings Valuation 1.0($ in
millions of U.S. dollars except per share
amounts)HistoricalProjected Fiscal Years Ending March
311.0Abnormal
Earnings20192020202120222023202420251.0Net
Income5345226597979631,1721,4171.0Equity
Value3208421,5022,2983,2614,4335,8501.0Equity
Charge22571021562213011.0Cost of
Equity6.8%6.8%6.8%6.8%6.8%6.8%1.0Residual
Income5016026958079511,1161.0Years to
Discount0.661.662.663.664.665.661.0Cost of
Equity6.8%6.8%6.8%6.8%6.8%6.8%1.0Discount
Factor0.960.900.840.790.740.691.0PV Residual Income to
Equity4795405836347007701.01.0Residual Inome Valuation
Method1.0Current Equity Book Value320Growth
Rate3%1.0Present Value of Perpetuity with
Growth20,9131.0Terminal Value as % of Total
Value83.9%1.0Present Value of Forecast Residual
Income3,7071.0Forecast Period as % of Total
Value14.9%1.0Equity Value24,9401.0Shares
outstanding2831.0Fair Value Share Price88.191.0Current Share
Price80.100Upside10.1%