Explaining why NAB offered the best value bank investment.

1. Stock Focus
National Australia Bank (NAB)
1
MORE BANK FOR YOUR BUCK
.
$20.87
$26.44
$30.61
$34.78
Positive Neutral Negative
Share Price
RECOMMENDATION : POSITIVE
NAB is the best value Australian major bank, trading at 9.7x
FY12F PE, an 11% discount to peers. Catalysts to close the
price-value gap include (i) continued strength in total system
business credit; (ii) eventual UK exit; and (iii) continued
margin claw-back. We analyse these catalysts in this Note.
NAB’s third quarter trading update (3Q12) was broadly
within our expectations. Revenue is flat, costs appear well
managed, asset quality is stable and customer margins are
flat. However, the UK remains a drag driven by higher
funding costs, mitigated by lower bad debt expenses. We
retain our Positive view and reduce our blended valuation by
-1.6% to $27.83 (prev. $28.29).
WHAT’s NEW?
• FY12 cash earnings run-rate of $5.628bn (1H12 $2.828bn, 3Q12
unaudited $1.4bn) is in line with EAP’s forecast of $5.625bn.
• Revenue was down ~1% (lower Markets and Specialised Group Assets),
apparently offset by “lower” expenses.
• Weaker UK Banking results.
• 3Q12 customer margin flat.
WHAT’s CHANGED?
• FY12e -0.9%; FY13e EPS -2.2%.
WHAT NOW?
In this Note, we analyse the following potential catalysts in more detail:
1. Continued strength in total system business credit.
2. Eventual UK exit.
3. Continued margin claw-back.
Trading Data
Last Price $24.70
12 month range $21.01 - $25.99
Market Cap $56,147m
Free Float $54,586m (97%)
Avg. Daily Volume 7.2m
Avg. Daily Value $175.5m
12 month return (historical) 15.3%
Asset growth supported by NAB’s lower
product pricing relative to peers.
Funding costs have driven margins to the
downside.
Earnings Forecasts
Yr to September 09A 10A 11A 12E 13E 14E
E&P Cash EPS (¢) 190.1 219.4 255.6 253.4 261.7 282.8
Basic Cash EPS (¢) 204.7 221.2 257.3 255.1 263.4 284.4
Reported EPS (¢) 123.4 202.1 244.2 218.0 259.5 281.1
E&P Cash EPS Growth (%) (15.2) 15.4 16.5 (0.9) 3.3 8.0
DPS (¢) 146.0 152.0 172.0 174.6 186.0 198.8
Yield (%) 5.9 6.2 7.0 7.1 7.5 8.0
Grossed-Up Yield (%) 8.4 8.8 9.9 10.1 10.8 11.5
Franking (%) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
E&P Cash Multiple (x) 12.1 11.2 9.6 9.7 9.4 8.7
Price/Book (x) 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2
PEG Ratio (x) 0.4 0.7 4.0 0.8
Net Interest Margin (%) 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1
Return on Average Assets (%) 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8
ROE (%) 9.8 11.8 13.4 12.6 12.5 13.2
Valuation (blended) 27.83
George Gabriel, CFA
ggabriel@evansandpartners.com.au
August 24, 2012
+61 3 9631 9853

2. 2
POTENTIAL CATALYSTS
Three potential catalysts are: (i) continued increase in total business credit; (ii) eventual UK Banking
exit; and (iii) continued margin claw-back.
Total business credit increases
NAB provides the sector’s greatest leverage to Business Banking. Consequently, as total system
business lending continues to grow, NAB should outperform.
• Total business credit growth is up from -2.2% in June 2011 (12 months rolling) to +4.4% (year to
date). Chart 1.
• Business Banking comprises 44.7% of NAB’s 1H12 earnings. Table 1.
• NAB has sector-leading 24.0% corporate loan market share and 21.2% business deposits market
share. Table 2.
CHART 1: TOTAL SYSTEM CREDIT
TABLE 1: NAB SEGMENTAL EARNINGS MIX
TABLE 2: BANK SECTOR MARKET SHARES

3. 3
UK Banking exit
NAB is restructuring its UK Banking operations so that it retains a “Good Bank” (retail and small
business loans in its core markets of Scotland and Northern Ireland) with assets which are attractive to
a potential buyer, whilst at the same time transferring “Bad Bank” assets (A$9.5bn of UK commercial
property loans) to NAB Group in 1H13 and allowing them to run-off through to 2016. Refer EAP Note,
“NAB Battle of Britain – Beginning of the End for UK Banking Exit”, 30 April 2012, for detailed
discussion. Even though the UK Banking exit has commenced, NAB’s valuation discount remains. There
are two potential catalysts which could result in removal of the valuation discount: (i) sale of
UK “Good Bank” assets on attractive terms; or (ii) run-off of “Bad Bank” assets to eventual
immateriality.
(i) “Good Bank” sale
The intention of restructuring of UK Bank is to increase “Good Bank’s” appeal to future buyers through:
• increasing profitability through cost reduction (staff redundancies, branch closures and back office
consolidation);
• removal of bad loans (via transfer to NAB Group); and
• reduced reliance on wholesale funding.
A sale of Clydesdale is unlikely until 1H13, when the “Bad Bank” loans are due to be transferred to NAB
Group. However, a sale is possible any time thereafter.
(ii) Immateriality of “Bad Bank”
“Bad bank” assets can become immaterial in two ways: loan run-off or earnings stabilisation.
• Loan run-off
As “Bad Bank” loans amortise (“run-off”), they become less material to NAB Group.
UK Banking assets (ie. both Good Bank and Bad Bank) comprise ~10% of total NAB Group assets. The
“Bad Bank” comprises ~£6.2bn (A$9.5bn), which is 2.4% of NAB’s total loans or 1.3% of total Group
assets.
NAB expects two-thirds of the “Bad Bank” to have run off by 2016, leaving a residual ~$3bn “Bad Bank”
loan portfolio or ~0.5% of NAB Group’s ~$619bn of average interest earnings assets (as at 1H12).
• Earnings stabilisation
Earnings stabilisation requires both asset quality and funding cost stabilisation. Whilst the near-term
outlook remains volatile, in the medium-term we would expect these to stabilise. The 3Q Trading
Update described the most recent trends (no data was provided, just descriptive commentary):
“UK Banking results were weaker due to lower revenue, mainly from increased funding costs. The
charge for B&Ds was lower, but remains elevated and asset quality measures continued to deteriorate
in the commercial real estate portfolio, reflecting ongoing weakness in the UK economy”.
It is worth noting that Standard & Poor's has already upgraded its outlook on NAB’s UK
Banking subsidiary Clydesdale Bank from stable to positive (the long-rating remains BBB+). S&P
said NAB’s UK Bank would have a "lower risk profile than historically" and the UK outlook "incorporates
our view that the broader de-risking and simplification of the franchise and adequate funding and
liquidity will support Clydesdale's overall creditworthiness" once NAB completed the transfer of £6bn in
distressed real-estate loans to the balance sheet of the NAB group.

4. 4
Continued margin recovery
NAB is leading the sector in recovering net interest margins.
A key feature of CEO Cameron Clyne’s tenure has been his price discounting strategy in Personal
Banking (which appears to have also extended into other business segments). However, although NAB
successfully acquired share in all key segments (Table 3), this has been at the expense of net interest
margin decline of 11bp (Table 4).
Most recently, NAB has been leading the way in margin claw-back, given NAB has increased its:
• Liquidity margin on business loans by 0.2% (without a comparable move by peers) in July 2012,
estimated to add ~$80m to earnings; and
• Standard variable mortgage (SVR) rate out-of-cycle by more than peers in May and June 2012, up
22bp (against a peer average of 18bp). Notwithstanding this, NAB retains the sector’s cheapest
standard variable rate (SVR) mortgage of 6.78%. Table 5.
TABLE 3: 1-YEAR CHANGE IN MARKET SHARES
TABLE 4: MAJOR BANK NET INTEREST MARGINS
TABLE 5: OUT-OF-CYCLE RATE RISES

5. 5
NAB 3Q Trading Update
Trading Updates by their nature comprise mostly qualitative description and limited quantitative
disclosures. Key insights are summarised below.
• FY12 run-rate cash earnings in line with our expectations, slightly below consensus.
o FY12 cash earnings run-rate is $5.628bn (1H12 $2.828bn, 3Q unaudited cash earnings
$1.4bn)
o 2.0% below FY12 consensus of $5.743bn
o In line with EAP FY12 forecast of $5.625bn
• 3Q12 jaws trends unclear. 1H12 jaws was +4.3% (ahead of peers ANZ +0.7%, WBC +1.7%).
o Revenue was down 1% (lower Markets and Specialised Group Assets revenue, offset by
Personal Banking income growth).
o Expenses were lower (but not quantified).
• Bad debts FY12 run-rate is below our expectations, with small reductions in the charge across a
number of business units partially offset by increased Business Banking charge.
o FY12 run-rate bad debt expense is $2.179bn (3Q12 bad debts $524m; 1H12 $1.131bn).
o EAP FY12 forecast of $2.432bn.
o Declining quarterly bad debt expense trend - $524m in 3Q12, vs $566m in 2Q12.
• Group Asset Quality stable.
o 90 days past due and gross impaired assets to gross loans was 1.72% (vs 1.73% in Mar qtr).
o Increased UK impairments offset by improvements in Wholesale Banking and SGA.
• FY12 funding requirement appears fully satisfied, with FY13 pre-funding commenced.
o NAB required $23m of FY12 funding. Chart 1.
o NAB has raised $27bn of term wholesale debt, increasing its weighted average term to
maturity to 4.9 years.
o Stable Funding Index of 85% as at 30 June 2012. (Banks are required to achieve 100% by
Jan 2018 under Basel 3).
o NAB’s largest refinance burden is FY14, of $29bn.
• Core Tier 1 capital comfortably exceeds minimum.
o 8.05% (up from 8.03% as at 31 March 2012), exceeding minimum target of 7.0%.

6. 6
FINANCIAL SUMMARY
National Australia Bank NAB
As at: 24/02/2014 Recommendation: Positive Share Price $24.70
Year end September 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
INCOME STATEMENT
Interest Income $m 34,270 33,422 34,853 38,952
Interest Expense $m (21,236) (19,834) (20,713) (24,315)
Net Interest Income $m 13,034 13,589 14,140 14,638
Non Interest Income
Fees & Commissions $m 2,507 2,603 2,853 3,017
Trading Income $m 234 470 351 351
Other Banking Income $m 0 0 0 0
Banking Non Interest Income $m 2,741 3,073 3,203 3,367
Wealth Management Income $m 1,486 1,611 1,813 1,934
Income/(Loss) from Associates $m 0 0 0 0
Total operating income $m 16,843 18,372 19,356 20,139
Operating Expenses
Personnel Expenses $m (4,563) (4,472) (4,419) (4,518)
Occupancy & Equipment $m (599) (550) (556) (571)
Total Operating Expenses $m (8,365) (8,704) (8,706) (8,902)
Pre Prov. Oper. Profit Before Tax $m 8,478 9,668 10,649 11,237
Bad debt charge $m (1,750) (2,618) (2,428) (2,067)
Pre Tax Profit $m 6,728 7,050 8,221 9,169
Tax Expense $m (1,508) (2,251) (2,316) (2,578)
Minorities $m (1) 0 0 0
Reported Profit Statutory $m 5,219 4,798 5,905 6,591
Cash earnings adjustment $m 241 734 12 0
Reported Cash Profit $m 5,460 5,570 5,955 6,629
Preference Share Dividends $m (37) (38) (38) (38)
E&P Normalised NPAT $m 5,423 5,532 5,917 6,591
E&P Cash EPS ¢ 255.6 253.4 261.7 282.8
Basic Cash EPS ¢ 257.3 255.1 263.4 284.4
Reported EPS ¢ 244.2 218.0 259.5 281.1
Dividend per Share ¢ 172.0 174.6 186.0 198.8
BALANCE SHEET
Gross Loans & Other Receivables $m 439,108 459,740 486,843 514,027
Total Assets $m 753,757 801,030 837,379 873,463
Impaired Assets $m 6,386 6,213 6,135 6,219
Deposits & Other Pub. Borrowing $m 402,964 435,184 457,323 479,706
Bonds, notes & subordinat’d debt $m 99,768 99,768 99,768 99,768
Total Shareholder Equity $m 42,188 45,800 48,805 51,175
Avg housing loans $m 237,855 258,915 275,486 293,410
Avg non-housing loans $m 175,259 189,443 199,948 209,352
Avg total gross loans $m 413,114 448,357 475,434 502,762
Avg Interest Earning Assets $m 580,639 628,545 657,357 684,685
Avg Total Assets $m 700,690 758,501 793,270 826,248
Avg Interest Bearing Liabilities $m 518,133 561,383 584,686 606,994
Avg Total Liabilities $m 660,856 714,507 745,967 776,258
Avg Shareholders’ Equity $m 40,571 43,994 47,302 49,990
GROWTH RATES
Per Share
E&P Cash EPS % 16.5% (0.9)% 3.3% 8.0%
Basic Cash EPS % 16.3% (0.9)% 3.3% 8.0%
Dividend Per Share % 13.2% 1.5% 6.5% 6.9%
Profit & Loss
Net Interest Income % 6.3% 4.3% 4.1% 3.5%
Banking Non Interest Income % 2.0% 12.1% 4.2% 5.1%
Wealth Management Income % (1.7)% 8.4% 12.5% 6.7%
Total Non Interest Income % 2.0% 12.1% 4.2% 5.1%
Total Operating Income % (1.0)% 9.1% 5.4% 4.0%
Operating Expenses % (2.1)% 4.0% 0.0% 2.2%
Pre-Provision Profit % 0.1% 14.0% 10.2% 5.5%
Impairment Charges % (37.3)% 49.6% (7.3)% (14.9)%
Cash Profit % 19.2% 2.0% 6.9% 11.3%
Balance Sheet
Gross Loans & Other Receivables % 10.2% 4.7% 5.9% 5.6%
Total Shareholders’ Equity % 8.3% 8.6% 6.6% 4.9%
Average Balance Sheet
Housing Loans % 11.6% 8.9% 6.4% 6.5%
Non-Housing Loans % 1.7% 8.1% 5.5% 4.7%
Avg Interest Earning Assets % 6.2% 8.3% 4.6% 4.2%
Avg Interest Bearing Liabilities % 4.1% 8.3% 4.2% 3.8%
Year end September 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E
VALUATION METRICS
E&P Cash P/E Multiple x 9.6 9.7 9.4 8.7
Basic P/E Multiple x 9.7 9.7 9.4 8.7
Price/Pre-prov. operating profit x 6.4 5.7 5.4 5.3
NTA per share $ 15.9 17.0 17.6 17.9
Book Value per Share $ 19.2 20.4 21.0 21.4
Price/NTA x 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4
Price/Book x 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2
Dividend per Share ¢ 172.0 174.6 186.0 198.8
Dividend Payout Ratio x 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Dividend Yield % 7.0% 7.1% 7.5% 8.0%
Grossed Up Yield % 9.9% 10.1% 10.8% 11.5%
Issued Shares m 2,201.2 2,241.7 2,319.1 2,389.2
Weighted Average Shares m 2,180.1 2,241.7 2,319.1 2,389.2
PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS
Profitability
Income / Avg Assets % 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4%
Expense / Avg Assets % 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Return on Average Assets % 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8%
Return on Ordinary Equity % 13.4% 12.6% 12.5% 13.2%
Return on Risk Weighted Assets % 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6%
Net Interest Margin Analysis
Net Interest Spread % 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7%
Net Interest Margin % 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1%
Non Int. Income to Total Income % 22.6% 26.0% 26.9% 27.3%
Efficiency
Cost/Income % 49.7% 47.4% 45.0% 44.2%
Tax Rate
Effective tax rate % 22.4% 31.9% 28.2% 28.1%
CAPITAL ADEQUACY
Risk Weighted Assets $m 341,069 369,446 391,226 413,072
Tier 1 Capital $m 33,075 36,206 39,123 41,307
Total Capital $m 38,408 41,982 45,240 47,766
Tier 1 Ratio % 9.7% 9.8% 10.0% 10.0%
Tier 2 Ratio % 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%
Total Capital Ratio % 11.3% 11.4% 11.6% 11.6%
ACE Ratio % 7.8% 8.0% 8.3% 8.4%
Tangible Leverage Ratio % 4.6% 4.8% 4.9% 4.9%
ASSET QUALITY
90-day Past Due Loans $m 2,150 2,092 2,066 2,094
Non Performing Loans $m 6,386 6,213 6,135 6,219
NPL / Gross Loans and Other Rec % 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2%
Total Provisions $m 3,980 3,970 4,076 4,226
Total Prov. / Gr. Loans & Oth Rec % 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8%
Individual Provision $m 1,475 1,584 1,564 1,585
Individual Provision Cover % 23.1% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5%
Collective Provision $m 2,505 2,387 2,512 2,641
Collective Prov. / Perform. Loans % 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Impairment Charges / Avg RWA % 0.5% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5%
Imp Assets / Gr. Loans & Oth Rec % 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2%
Impaired asset coverage % 23.1% 25.5% 25.5% 25.5%
Collective Provision / RWA % 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
BDD / Gr. loans and Oth Rec % 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4%
WEALTH MANAGEMENT
Funds Under Administration $m 119,220 118,028 128,064 137,846
Inforce Premiums $m 1,466 1,493 1,558 1,645
Funds Mgt Revenue Margin % 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%
Life Insurance Revenue margin % 33.2% 37.9% 44.0% 44.0%
Shareholder Invest. Returns % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

7. 7
RESEARCH RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS
Positive Stock is expected to outperform the S&P/ASX 200 over the coming 24 months
Neutral Stock expected to perform in line with the S&P/ASX 200 over the coming 24 months
Negative Stock is expected to underperform the S&P/ASX 200 over the coming 24 months
Speculative Stock has limited history from which to derive a fundamental investment view or its prospects
are highly dependent on event risk, eg. Successful exploration, scientific breakthrough, high
commodity prices, regulatory change, etc.
Suspended Stock is temporarily suspended due to compliance with applicable regulatory and/or Evans &
Partners policies in circumstances where Evans & Partners is acting in an advisory capacity.
Not Rated Stock is not included in our investment research universe.
Research Criteria Definitions
Recommendations are primarily determined with reference to how a stock ranks relative to the S&P/ASX 200 on
the following criteria:
Valuation Rolling 12 month prospective multiples (composite of Price-to-Earnings Ratio, Dividend
Yield and EV/EBITDA), or long-term NPV for resource stocks.
Earnings Outlook Forecast 2 year EPS growth.
Earnings Momentum Percentage change in the current consensus EPS estimate for the stock (rolling 1 year
forward basis) over the consensus EPS estimate for the stock 3 months ago.
Shareholder Returns Composite of forecast ROE (rolling 1 year forward basis) and the percentage change in
ROE over 2 years.
Debt Servicing Capacity Rolling 12 month EBIT Interest Cover ratio.
Cyclical Risk Qualitative assessment of the 2 year outlook for a stock/industry’s profit cycle.
Industry Quality Qualitative assessment of an industry’s growth/returns potential and company specific
management capability.
Financial Transparency If we don’t understand it, we won’t recommend it.
For stocks where Evans & Partners does not generate its own forecasts, Bloomberg consensus data is used.
Analysts can introduce other factors when determining their recommendation, with any material factors stated in
the written research where appropriate.

8. 8
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RESEARCH ANALYST CERTIFICATION
I, George Gabriel, CFA, hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the
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