This document discusses the threats that earthquakes pose to industrial facilities containing hazardous substances. An earthquake could cause structural damage leading to a toxic chemical release, fire, or explosion, endangering workers and the environment. Earthquake forecasts could help facilities better prepare by reviewing emergency response plans, minimizing on-site risks, and activating protective systems in advance. The case study examines potential impacts of an ammonia release from a damaged plant, including fatalities, injuries and costs. Improved earthquake forecasting may allow industrial operations to implement risk reduction measures before an event occurs.

1. Operational Earthquakes
Forecasting:
The Case of Industrial Plants
Sigalit Shahar
Hazmat 2016

2. The threat
• Structural damage to a facility containing
hazardous substances may cause:
Release of toxic vapors and fumes
Extensive fire
Massive explosion
Adverse environmental impact
Substantial financial loss
Loss of credibility

3. In earthquakes, this picture is even more critical
due to the combination of:
The stochastic behavior of seismic phenomena
The chemical hazards
Existing processes in the industry were rarely
designed according to a seismic standard.
Assistance from community rescue-forces is
questionable

4. Direct impact on industry
Fatalities,
injuries, and
trapped people
Damage to
buildings
earthquake
industry
Loss of
containment of
hazardous
substances
Major accident of
hazardous
substance(s)
On-going
incident

5. What if we can get a forecast for the next earthquakes?
All our protection layers must be reviewed:

6. Community Emergency Response
Preparations at state-level:
• Deployment of (out-numbered) rescue forces:
hospitals, schools, city center, shopping-malls
OR industrial parks
• Assessment of the rescue-services, or extent of
rescue services that will be postponed
• Dynamic decision making on priorities

7. Plant Emergency Response
• Emergency response teams (ERTs) to be in
alert phase: adoption of military procedures
that are highly irregular in industry-lives
• Administrative procedures 1: for example
minimizing the number of employees on site
• Administrative procedures 2: minimizing the
quantities of hazardous substances

8. Mittigation
Emergency preparedness:
• Starting up emergency systems: scrubbers, ventilation,
electricity and more
• Verifying that all water reservoirs are filled and in operation
• Verifying that all first-aid, communication and rescue
equipment are in operation
• Sheltering
• Close all stop-valves such as drain valves, storm-water valves
and more
• Deployment of fire fighting equipment
• Deployment of mobile gas monitors
• Minimizing the current stock of hazardous substances
• If appropriate, storage of food and drinking water

9. Prevention
Commencing shutdown procedures according to
a pre-determined plan based on risk analysis
F3 M M H H
F2 L M M H
F1 L L M M
F0 L L L M
S0 S1 S2 S3
F = Frequency Code
S = Severity Code
HAZARD CATEGORY CODES:
[L] Low risk - Nice to have
[M] Moderate risk - Action required
[H] Critical risk - Must take action

10. Control
Pre-planning:
• Resistance to earthquakes built-in to the design
• Physical protection and retrofitting against
earthquakes
• Design of automatic and passive safeguards
• Design of automatic shutoff systems: shutoff valves,
emergency shutdown procedures and more
• Design of secondary containment systems to handle
loss of containment scenarios

11. Case Study: Ammonia plant
•Threat Zone:
1,500 meters
radius
•Potentially
exposed
population:
30,000
•Worst case
Scenario: 145
fatal casualties
(average)

12. Case Study: Ammonia plant
•Ammonia is a toxic gas. Uncontrolled release of
ammonia could be fatal.
loss-of-containment Scenario (3 examples only) Casualties Damage Cost (M US$)
Rupture of Ammonia Receiver 19 24.6
Release of Entire Content of Ammonia Receiver within 10
Minutes
145 195
Leak from a 10 mm Diameter Hole in Ammonia Receiver 16 21.5
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