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 The	
  Future	
  of	
  Energy	
  	
  
	
  Insights	
  from	
  Discussions	
  Building	
  on	
  an	
  Ini4al	
  Perspec4ve...
Context	
  
The	
  ini4al	
  perspec4ve	
  on	
  the	
  Future	
  of	
  Energy	
  kicked	
  off	
  the	
  	
  
Future	
  Ag...
Inevitable	
  Transi8on	
  
The	
  energy	
  system	
  is	
  at	
  the	
  beginning	
  of	
  an	
  inevitable	
  transi4on...
Popula8on	
  and	
  Climate	
  
The	
  two	
  fundamental	
  and	
  strongest	
  influences	
  behind	
  the	
  	
  
energy...
Transi8on	
  or	
  Delay?	
  
The	
  debate	
  is	
  polarized	
  on	
  many	
  fronts,	
  for	
  example	
  between	
  th...
Fuelling	
  Prosperity	
  
The	
  benefits	
  of	
  energy	
  cannot	
  be	
  forgoXen.	
  It	
  is	
  one	
  of	
  the	
  ...
Less	
  Carbon	
  -­‐	
  More	
  Energy	
  
The	
  climate	
  change	
  debate	
  is	
  serious	
  but	
  needs	
  to	
  b...
Collabora8on	
  and	
  Trade-­‐Offs	
  
To	
  bring	
  about	
  a	
  shi[	
  and	
  to	
  broaden	
  the	
  frame	
  of	
  ...
Extended	
  Period	
  of	
  Transi8on	
  
An	
  extended	
  period	
  of	
  co-­‐evolu4on	
  and	
  co-­‐existence	
  of	
...
Modera8ng	
  Expecta8ons	
  
We	
  need	
  to	
  moderate	
  our	
  expecta4ons	
  of	
  a	
  wholly	
  renewable	
  energ...
Urbanisa8on	
  
Urbanisa4on	
  can	
  bring	
  many	
  benefits,	
  but	
  if	
  managed	
  	
  
poorly	
  can	
  cause	
  ...
Serious	
  Change	
  Required	
  
Serious	
  aXen4on,	
  op4mism	
  and	
  swi[	
  collabora4ve	
  ac4on	
  is	
  	
  
nee...
A	
  ShiJ	
  from	
  Unexpected	
  Players	
  
Agreement	
  between	
  China	
  and	
  the	
  US	
  is	
  a	
  tes4mony	
 ...
Transi8on	
  From	
  Natural	
  Gas	
  to	
  Renewables	
  
Increasing	
  investment	
  on	
  renewables,	
  improving	
  ...
Storage	
  is	
  Promising	
  and	
  Game-­‐changing	
  	
  
There	
  is	
  a	
  lot	
  of	
  emphasis	
  on	
  the	
  dev...
Energy	
  Efficiency	
  –	
  The	
  Invisible	
  Fuel	
  
The	
  cheapest	
  and	
  cleanest	
  form	
  of	
  energy	
  is	
...
Leapfrogging	
  to	
  a	
  Low	
  Carbon	
  Future	
  
Driven	
  by	
  technological	
  improvements	
  in	
  the	
  low	
...
Rise	
  of	
  the	
  Micro-­‐Actors	
  
We	
  can	
  see	
  a	
  blurring	
  of	
  energy	
  consumers	
  and	
  producers...
Hydro	
  Revival	
  
In	
  response	
  to	
  rising	
  CO2	
  and	
  pollu4on	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  associated	
  health	...
Demand-­‐Driven	
  Energy	
  
The	
  energy	
  system	
  will	
  become	
  more	
  demand-­‐driven	
  than	
  supply-­‐led...
BeRer	
  Storage	
  
Improvements	
  in	
  baXery	
  and	
  hydrogen	
  energy	
  storage	
  make	
  renewable	
  energy	
...
Solar	
  Houses	
  
A	
  solar	
  cost	
  and	
  performance	
  revolu4on	
  will	
  reshape	
  residen4al	
  energy	
  
p...
Conscious	
  Users	
  	
  
Domes4c	
  energy	
  use	
  paXerns	
  change	
  as	
  a	
  result	
  of	
  rising	
  social	
 ...
Nuclear	
  Skills	
  Shortage	
  
Many	
  countries	
  lack	
  the	
  skills	
  and	
  training	
  to	
  maintain	
  suffici...
Conscious	
  Stewards	
  
We	
  are	
  more	
  aware	
  of	
  the	
  consequences	
  of	
  our	
  ac4ons:	
  There	
  is	
...
Smarter	
  Consump8on	
  
Much	
  technology	
  for	
  energy	
  efficiency	
  is	
  proven	
  and	
  implementable	
  today...
Millennial	
  Managers	
  
As	
  more	
  digital-­‐na4ve	
  Millennials	
  take	
  the	
  lead	
  they	
  bring	
  differen...
Business	
  Response	
  to	
  Resource	
  Risks	
  
To	
  prevent	
  the	
  exploita4on	
  of	
  global	
  regulatory	
  a...
Incumbent	
  Blockers	
  
Several	
  large,	
  well-­‐established	
  organisa4ons	
  con4nue	
  to	
  seek	
  to	
  preven...
No	
  Nukes	
  to	
  Go	
  Nukes	
  
More	
  see	
  nuclear	
  energy	
  as	
  a	
  significant	
  piece	
  of	
  the	
  fu...
Infrastructure	
  for	
  the	
  Future?	
  	
  
We	
  will	
  see	
  a	
  transi4on	
  from	
  aged	
  to	
  new	
  infras...
Let	
  Them	
  Eat	
  Cake	
  	
  
The	
  short-­‐term	
  impacts	
  of	
  climate	
  change	
  dispropor4onately	
  affect...
New	
  Hazards,	
  New	
  Protocols	
  	
  
Regulatory	
  frameworks	
  and	
  standards	
  evolve	
  to	
  address	
  new...
Planetary	
  Nexuses	
  
More	
  eco-­‐friendly	
  opportuni4es,	
  and	
  trade-­‐offs,	
  on	
  energy	
  supply	
  and	
...
People	
  Power	
  	
  
Public	
  demand	
  and	
  pressure	
  for	
  different	
  solu4ons	
  drive	
  a	
  more	
  techno...
Policy	
  Beats	
  Poli8cs	
  	
  
Increased	
  public	
  pressure	
  stems	
  from	
  greater	
  awareness	
  of	
  more	...
Transi8on	
  or	
  Disrup8on	
  
We	
  will	
  see	
  significant	
  change	
  in	
  the	
  energy	
  system	
  over	
  the...
Technology	
  Shaping	
  the	
  Market	
  
The	
  cost	
  compe44veness	
  of	
  new	
  technologies	
  leads	
  to	
  the...
Changing	
  Energy	
  Risk	
  Profile	
  
The	
  impact	
  of	
  natural	
  disasters,	
  wider	
  acceptance	
  of	
  the	...
Unclear	
  Analy8cal	
  Models	
  	
  
Current	
  analy4cal	
  models	
  may	
  not	
  handle	
  disrup4ve	
  elements	
  ...
ShiJ	
  in	
  The	
  Investment	
  Landscape	
  
As	
  renewable	
  /	
  storage	
  technologies	
  become	
  cost	
  comp...
Integra8on	
  vs.	
  Fragmenta8on	
  
While	
  the	
  EU	
  2030	
  framework	
  is	
  designed	
  to	
  lead	
  to	
  an	...
Closing	
  the	
  Narra8ve	
  Gap	
  
We	
  focus	
  on	
  sharing	
  a	
  clear,	
  compelling	
  narra4ve	
  that	
  eng...
Air	
  Quality	
  
As	
  more	
  experience	
  asthma	
  and	
  other	
  breathing	
  difficul4es,	
  urban	
  	
  
air	
  q...
Last	
  Mile	
  Grid	
  Connec8vity	
  
Private	
  /	
  public	
  collabora4ons	
  give	
  another	
  100m	
  people	
  in...
Mass	
  Engagement	
  
As	
  the	
  pressures	
  of	
  higher	
  energy	
  costs,	
  the	
  impacts	
  of	
  climate	
  ch...
Distributed	
  Energy	
  Supply	
  
Key	
  developing	
  economies	
  invest	
  heavily	
  in	
  lower-­‐carbon,	
  distri...
Declining	
  Energy	
  Intensity	
  
As	
  major	
  growth	
  regions	
  invest	
  in	
  lower-­‐carbon	
  supply	
  op4on...
Future	
  Agenda	
  
84	
  Brook	
  Street	
  
London	
  
W1K	
  5EH	
  
+44	
  203	
  0088	
  141	
  
futureagenda.org	
 ...
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Future of energy - Insights from Discussions Building on an Initial Perspective by Jeremy Bentham, VP Global Business Environment at Shell

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Insights from Discussions Building on an Initial Perspective by An initial perspective on the future of energy by Jeremy Bentham, VP Global Business Environment at Shell. This includes insights from an event with The Climate Group and builds on the starting point for the global future agenda discussions taking place through 2015 as part of the the futureagenda2.0 programme. www.futureagenda.org

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Future of energy - Insights from Discussions Building on an Initial Perspective by Jeremy Bentham, VP Global Business Environment at Shell

  1. 1.  The  Future  of  Energy      Insights  from  Discussions  Building  on  an  Ini4al  Perspec4ve  by:    Jeremy  Bentham  |  Vice  President  Global  Business  Environment  |  Shell  
  2. 2. Context   The  ini4al  perspec4ve  on  the  Future  of  Energy  kicked  off  the     Future  Agenda  2.0  global  discussions  taking  place  through  2015.     This  summary  builds  on  the  ini4al  view  and  is  updated  as  we  progress.   Ini4al   Perspec4ves   Q4  2014   Global   Discussions   Q1/2  2015   Insight   Synthesis   Q3  2015   Sharing     Output   Q4  2015  
  3. 3. Inevitable  Transi8on   The  energy  system  is  at  the  beginning  of  an  inevitable  transi4on,     with  increasing  contribu4ons  from  renewable  energy,     energy  efficiency  and  sustainable  development.  
  4. 4. Popula8on  and  Climate   The  two  fundamental  and  strongest  influences  behind  the     energy  system  transi4on  is  an  increasingly  prosperous  and     growing  popula4on,  and  concerns  about  climate  change.  
  5. 5. Transi8on  or  Delay?   The  debate  is  polarized  on  many  fronts,  for  example  between  the     governments  of  advanced  and  emerging  economies.  This  delays  meaningful   ac4on  at  scale,  and  in  the  mean4me  the  stresses  con4nue  to  mount.  
  6. 6. Fuelling  Prosperity   The  benefits  of  energy  cannot  be  forgoXen.  It  is  one  of  the  enablers     of  our  prosperity  and  wellbeing,  and  you  cannot  have  a  func4oning,   produc4ve,  efficient,  modern  economy  without  reliable  energy.    
  7. 7. Less  Carbon  -­‐  More  Energy   The  climate  change  debate  is  serious  but  needs  to  be  broader,     focused  not  solely  on  reducing  CO2  emissions,  but  on  developing     a  low  carbon,  high-­‐energy  future  to  ensure  prosperity  for  all.    
  8. 8. Collabora8on  and  Trade-­‐Offs   To  bring  about  a  shi[  and  to  broaden  the  frame  of  discussion,     pragma4c  collabora4on  is  needed,  between  government,     society  and  industry  at  an  unprecedented  scale.  
  9. 9. Extended  Period  of  Transi8on   An  extended  period  of  co-­‐evolu4on  and  co-­‐existence  of     renewables  and  fossil  fuels  is  likely  as  new  energy     infrastructures  supplement  or  supplant  old.  
  10. 10. Modera8ng  Expecta8ons   We  need  to  moderate  our  expecta4ons  of  a  wholly  renewable  energy     future  in  the  near  term  with  the  understanding  that  there  are     significant  technological  and  economic  obstacles.    
  11. 11. Urbanisa8on   Urbanisa4on  can  bring  many  benefits,  but  if  managed     poorly  can  cause  greater  environmental  degrada4on     and  accelerate  global  warming.    
  12. 12. Serious  Change  Required   Serious  aXen4on,  op4mism  and  swi[  collabora4ve  ac4on  is     needed  to  achieve  the  change  needed  to  happen  on  many  fronts,     from  the  energy  supply  mix  to  energy  demand  management    
  13. 13. A  ShiJ  from  Unexpected  Players   Agreement  between  China  and  the  US  is  a  tes4mony  for  unexpected     ac4ons  by  powerful  players.  To  bring  about  the  4pping  point  for   a  low  carbon  future,  greater,  bold  collabora4on  at  scale  is  needed.    
  14. 14. Transi8on  From  Natural  Gas  to  Renewables   Increasing  investment  on  renewables,  improving  technology,  falling  prices  and   growing  awareness  all  support  transi4on  to  a  low  carbon  future,  but  a  clear   exit  strategy  is  needed  for  natural  gas  as  a  transi4on  fuel  to  renewables.    
  15. 15. Storage  is  Promising  and  Game-­‐changing     There  is  a  lot  of  emphasis  on  the  development  of  storage  technologies.  Besides     solving  the  problem  of  power  intermiXency  from  renewables,  energy  storage   offers  poten4al  for  the  development  of  a  whole  new  mobile  energy  system.  
  16. 16. Energy  Efficiency  –  The  Invisible  Fuel   The  cheapest  and  cleanest  form  of  energy  is  the  energy  we  don’t  use.  Adop4on   of  effec4ve  energy  efficiency  measures  and  careful  management  of  energy   demand  will  play  a  key  role  in  crea4ng  a  clean,  low  cost  energy  future.  
  17. 17. Leapfrogging  to  a  Low  Carbon  Future   Driven  by  technological  improvements  in  the  low  carbon  energy  sector,   developing  countries  can  leapfrog  their  way  into  lower  carbon  economies   without  passing  through  an  intense  fossil  fuels  phase.  
  18. 18. Rise  of  the  Micro-­‐Actors   We  can  see  a  blurring  of  energy  consumers  and  producers  –  to  ‘prosumers’   who  do  both.  Hence  a  move  to  mul4ple  micro-­‐actors  working  individually  and   collec4vely  -­‐  supported  by  new  technological  developments,  including  storage.    
  19. 19. Hydro  Revival   In  response  to  rising  CO2  and  pollu4on  as  well  as  associated  health     concerns,  China  will  con4nue  to  influence  the  funding  and  willingness     to  build  large-­‐scale  hydro  solu4ons,  especially  in  the  developing  world.    
  20. 20. Demand-­‐Driven  Energy   The  energy  system  will  become  more  demand-­‐driven  than  supply-­‐led  as     more  distributed  genera4on  and  renewables  are  included  onto  the  system.     End-­‐user  behaviour  will  also  change  as  beXer  technology  becomes  available.  
  21. 21. BeRer  Storage   Improvements  in  baXery  and  hydrogen  energy  storage  make  renewable  energy   more  reliable  and  so  accelerate  electric  vehicle  growth  and  support  greater   distributed  genera4on.  This  has  the  poten4al  to  enable  a  behaviour  change.  
  22. 22. Solar  Houses   A  solar  cost  and  performance  revolu4on  will  reshape  residen4al  energy   provision  and,  coupled  with  beXer  baXeries,  storage  and  online     connec4vity,  will  thus  transform  the  wider  electricity  system.  
  23. 23. Conscious  Users     Domes4c  energy  use  paXerns  change  as  a  result  of  rising  social  awareness  of   limited  resources  and  beXer  informa4on  -­‐  enabled  by  technologies  such  as   smart  metering,  smart  household  appliances  and  new  monitoring  capabili4es.    
  24. 24. Nuclear  Skills  Shortage   Many  countries  lack  the  skills  and  training  to  maintain  sufficient  numbers  of   qualified  nuclear  engineers  needed  for  renova4ng  and  building  plants  –  and   hence  they  can’t  take  advantage  of  the  opportuni4es  that  nuclear  offers.  
  25. 25. Conscious  Stewards   We  are  more  aware  of  the  consequences  of  our  ac4ons:  There  is  a  sense  of   stewardship  of  the  world  -­‐  not  only  in  how  we  manage  our  home,  but  also  in   how  we  live  in  our  ecosystem.  We  start  to  behave  as  conscious  stewards.  
  26. 26. Smarter  Consump8on   Much  technology  for  energy  efficiency  is  proven  and  implementable  today.  In   the  future  governments  will    first  focus  on  gedng  the  basics  of  demand  side   right  -­‐  by  reducing  consump4on  before  inves4ng  heavily  in  renewable  energy.  
  27. 27. Millennial  Managers   As  more  digital-­‐na4ve  Millennials  take  the  lead  they  bring  different   perspec4ves,  experiences  and  expecta4ons  about  societal  challenges  and  the   role  of  organisa4ons.  This  drives  a  shi[  towards  a  deeper  sense  of  purpose.  
  28. 28. Business  Response  to  Resource  Risks   To  prevent  the  exploita4on  of  global  regulatory  arbitrage,  we  work     out  how  to  more  effec4vely  govern  the  global  footprint  to  create  a  level   playing  field:  Business  and  government  develop  new  models  to  manage  risk.  
  29. 29. Incumbent  Blockers   Several  large,  well-­‐established  organisa4ons  con4nue  to  seek  to  prevent   change  by  arguing  for  short-­‐term  incremental  shi[s  rather  than  wider,  more   collabora4ve  system-­‐based  change  that  may  benefit  society  in  the  long-­‐term.  
  30. 30. No  Nukes  to  Go  Nukes   More  see  nuclear  energy  as  a  significant  piece  of  the  future  energy  mix  -­‐  driven   by  collec4ve  inac4on  on  the  need  to  transi4on  away  from  fossil  fuels.     But  many  are  unprepared  with  regard  to  skills,  policy  and  public  debate.  
  31. 31. Infrastructure  for  the  Future?     We  will  see  a  transi4on  from  aged  to  new  infrastructures  designed  to  manage   and  distribute  energy  from  diverse  sources  of  power  genera4on.  A  ques4on  is   whether  this  will  leave  a  new  legacy  problem  for  the  next  genera4on.  
  32. 32. Let  Them  Eat  Cake     The  short-­‐term  impacts  of  climate  change  dispropor4onately  affect  the  world’s   poor.  This  delays  strong  ac4on  as,  collec4vely,  many  socie4es  simply  don't   (yet)  care  enough  about  them  to  drive  changes  in  the  global  energy  system.  
  33. 33. New  Hazards,  New  Protocols     Regulatory  frameworks  and  standards  evolve  to  address  new  kinds  of  energy   hazard  that  are  emerging  from  the  adop4on  of  technologies  such  as  residen4al   baXeries  for  energy  storage  and  localised,  power  genera4on  schemes.  
  34. 34. Planetary  Nexuses   More  eco-­‐friendly  opportuni4es,  and  trade-­‐offs,  on  energy  supply  and     use  emerge  from  considering  the  nexuses  of  core  resources  such  as     food,  water,  energy  and  land  with  a  growing  popula4on.     Water   Food   Land   Energy  
  35. 35. People  Power     Public  demand  and  pressure  for  different  solu4ons  drive  a  more  technocra4c   energy  environment  resul4ng  in  more  holis4c  policies  that  integrate  the  needs   of  different  stakeholders  and  manage  resources  more  effec4vely.  
  36. 36. Policy  Beats  Poli8cs     Increased  public  pressure  stems  from  greater  awareness  of  more  stringent   emission  reduc4on  targets  in  some  countries.  This  starts  to  influence  poli4cal   will  in  others  na4ons  and  so  helps  to  shi[  policy  globally.  
  37. 37. Transi8on  or  Disrup8on   We  will  see  significant  change  in  the  energy  system  over  the  next  decade.     But,  we  are  unsure  if  it  will  be  navigated  in  ways  that  minimize  impact  on   society,  or  whether  we  will  experience  a  series  of  disrup4ons  to  respond  to.  
  38. 38. Technology  Shaping  the  Market   The  cost  compe44veness  of  new  technologies  leads  to  the  development  of   new  policies  and  business  models  that  enable  the  accelera4on  of  renewables,   growth  in  distributed  genera4on  and  a  shi[  to  a  lower  carbon  energy  mix.    
  39. 39. Changing  Energy  Risk  Profile   The  impact  of  natural  disasters,  wider  acceptance  of  the  need  to  avoid  a   warmer  world  and  increased  risk  of  cyber-­‐crime  to  our  infrastructure  all  lead     to  a  deeper  understanding  of  the  risk  profile  of  different  energy  solu4ons.  
  40. 40. Unclear  Analy8cal  Models     Current  analy4cal  models  may  not  handle  disrup4ve  elements  entering  the   energy  sector  -­‐  and  so  may  provide  results  that  do  not  fully  reflect  poten4al   shi[s  in  the  speed  of  change  and  impacts  of  disrup4ons  and  discon4nui4es.  
  41. 41. ShiJ  in  The  Investment  Landscape   As  renewable  /  storage  technologies  become  cost  compe44ve  we  may  see  a   shi[  in  investment  sen4ment  towards  cleaner  energy  solu4ons  based  more  on   poten4al  financial  returns  rather  than  on  the  carbon  vs.  climate  debate.    
  42. 42. Integra8on  vs.  Fragmenta8on   While  the  EU  2030  framework  is  designed  to  lead  to  an  energy  system  that     is  more  compe44ve,  secure  and  sustainable,  there  are  also  driving  forces     that  might  lead  to  a  more  fragmented,  distributed  energy  system.  
  43. 43. Closing  the  Narra8ve  Gap   We  focus  on  sharing  a  clear,  compelling  narra4ve  that  engages  different   audiences,  helps  to  improve  energy  literacy  and  builds  the  case  for  change.   This  may  lead  to  beXer  policy  decisions  and  shi[s  in  consumer  behaviour.  
  44. 44. Air  Quality   As  more  experience  asthma  and  other  breathing  difficul4es,  urban     air  quality  becomes  a  visible  issue  and  a  major  catalyst  for  change     –  in  transport  policy,  in  energy  source  and  in  city  design.  
  45. 45. Last  Mile  Grid  Connec8vity   Private  /  public  collabora4ons  give  another  100m  people  in  India  access     to  electricity  via  connec4on  to  the  grid  -­‐  but  250m  people  con4nue     to  use  wood,  diesel  and  kerosene  to  cook  and  light  their  homes.  
  46. 46. Mass  Engagement   As  the  pressures  of  higher  energy  costs,  the  impacts  of  climate  change     and  the  need  for  universal  access  combine,  shi[s  in  behaviour  and     investment  are  driven  by  wider  public  awareness  of  energy  issues.  
  47. 47. Distributed  Energy  Supply   Key  developing  economies  invest  heavily  in  lower-­‐carbon,  distributed     energy  with  integrated  storage  to  deliver  more  reliable  and  affordable  power.   This  is  supported  by  beXer  market  pricing  and  smarter  subsidies.  
  48. 48. Declining  Energy  Intensity   As  major  growth  regions  invest  in  lower-­‐carbon  supply  op4ons  and  priori4se   energy  efficiency,  we  see  an  associated  decline  in  energy  intensity  in  the   economy  –  achieving  reduc4ons  of  up  to  10%  over  the  next  decade.  
  49. 49. Future  Agenda   84  Brook  Street   London   W1K  5EH   +44  203  0088  141   futureagenda.org   The  world’s  leading  open  foresight  program   What  do  you  think?   Join  In  |  Add  your  views  into  the  mix     www.futureagenda.org  

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