Diaporama utilisé par deux experts d'Euler Hermes (Ana Boata, directrice de la recherche macroéconomique et Maxime Lemerle, directeur de la recherche secteur et insolvabilité) lors du webinaire qu'ils ont animé pour le Forum financier, le 30 novembre 2020.

1. © Copyright Allianz
Ana Boata, Head of
Macroeconomic Research
Maxime Lemerle, Head of
Sector Research
DELAYED BUT
NOT DERAILED
RECOVERY

2. © Copyright Allianz
Second wave of national lockdowns in EuropeQ4 2020
• Europe goes into second lockdown in November with restrictions more targeted & less restrictive compared to
Spring. Depending on the health situation the start of deconfinement will begin after 4 weeks in Germany vs. 6
weeks in Spain & France.
• USA to implement tighter albeit targeted & regional restrictions under a Biden presidency as soon as Q4 to
alleviate pressure on the health care system. Asia meanwhile will be spared a renewed sanitary crisis however
weak links including India need watching.
Timid recovery amid elevated restrictionsQ1 2021
• European restrictions are eased but register notably above summer 2020 levels as strict rules on social
interactions remain in place to reduce the risk of a sanitary relapse and in turn a triple-dip while countries need
more time to set up adequate track, trace isolate systems. Meanwhile some economic activities remain subject to
very tough restrictions until the vaccination campaign of people at risk is well advanced, and that more rapid
testing is available
• USA peak in stringency in January and gradual ease of restrictions starting in February. Vaccination campaign of
people at risk expected to be finalized in Q1.
Resurrection rebound for EasterQ2 2021
• European deconfinement enters a new chapter as adequate health sector capabilities, critical mass of the
vaccination of people at risk and more details on a mass vaccination campaign allow for further lifting of
restrictions at the same time as warmer temperatures (March/April) keep a lid on the growth rate of Covid-19
cases and provide tailwind to outdoor social spending. Positive confidence effects help unleash parts of the
excess private savings.
Vaccine confidence boostH2 2021
• Getting closer to a mobility-adjusted her immunity by Fall 2021 provides tailwind to the economic recovery by
reducing heightened level of economic uncertainty. Some limited step-up in restrictions starting in September still
possible. Return to normal by mid-2022.
2
Source: Allianz Research
COVID-19: LIGHT LOCKDOWN PUT AT LEAST ONE
THIRD OF THE ECONOMY ON PAUSE
Germany 46%
France 53%
Italy 52%
Spain 40%
Netherlands 47%
Belgium 50%
UK 35%
USA 30%
Cost of November lockdown in % of
April shock
We expect Belgian GDP to fall by -5% in Q4 and
rebound by +1.5% to +2.0% in Q1 2021. Overall, GDP
growth is expected at close to -8% in 2020 followed by
a rise of +2.5% to +3.5% in 2021 dependent on the
confidence effects and fiscal stimulus package

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The higher the vulnerability, the higher the downside
risk during the vaccination campaign
At the global scale, around 6 billion doses have been
ordered from the producing companies which is likely
to cover 38% of the global population. Many
governments have already ordered sufficient doses to
create herd immunity
COVID-19: EXECUTION RISK RELATED TO THE
VACCINATION ROLLOUT REMAIN HIGH
Sanitary vulnerability Vaccine orders sufficient for herd immunity (in million doses)
Sources: Refinitiv, WHO, Allianz Research
Sources: Company data, WHO, Allianz Research
3

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Our estimates suggest production side bottlenecks should not
pose a meaningful hurdle, at least for developed economies, but
the distribution could prove more challenging. The U.S., Germany,
Belgium, the Nordics and France rank highest in terms of their
capacity to handle, transport and distribute a Covid-19 vaccine at
a large scale.
Vaccination skepticism seems to be particularly
widespread in Western Europe while in Southern and
Eastern Europe, there is greater confidence. The
vaccination rate statistics for the seasonal flu among
the age group of 65+ years stands below 50%.
COVID-19: THE SUPPLY SIDE BOTTLENECKS ARE
LIKELY TO ARISE FROM DISTRIBUTION
Health system readiness (probability of
distribution frictions)
Trust in vaccines and willingness for Covid-
19 vaccination
Sources: Refinitiv, WHO, Allianz Research Sources: WHO, different national and international polls, Allianz Research
4
Approval of Covid-19 crisis management
(in %)
Sources: YouGov, Allianz Research

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COVID-19: DEMAND WILL BE KEY FOR THE SUCCESS
OF THE VACCINATION STRATEGY
Vaccination success depending on vaccine demand WHO recommendations regarding vaccination campaigns
Sources: various, Allianz Research
Note: vulnerable groups (due to age, health or occupation) in red, other vulnerable groups in black
, essential but not frontline functions in blue, groups that could carry and circulate the virus in
purple and reseve in grey.
Sources: WHO, Allianz Research
5
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Week0
Week2
Week4
Week6
Week8
Week10
Week12
Week14
Week16
Week18
Week20
Week22
Week24
Week26
Week28
Week30
Immunizationlevel
Maximum
vaccination
success
Vaccination success
with 80%
participation rate
Vaccination
success with 60%
participation rate

6. © Copyright Allianz
But confidence effects will need to
improve, notably in terms of labor
market
CONFIDENCE EFFECTS WILL BE KEY TO UNLEASH
EXCESS SAVINGS IN 2021
6
Sources: Eurostat, Allianz Research
Households’ confidence indicators
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Savings intentions in the next 12 months
Unemployment expectations in the next 12 months
Excess savings in Belgium could bring
close to EUR6bn of additional
consumer spending in 2021 (up to one
third of excess savings), i.e. +1.4pp of
GDP growth
Sources: Eurostat, Allianz Research
Potential for additional private consumption
from excess savings, EURbn and pp of
GDP growth
The share of Covid-19 sensitive (clothing
and footwear, furniture, transport, recreation
and culture, restaurants and hotels) goes
from 33% in the U.S. to 48% in Austria.
48%
44% 45% 44% 44% 43% 42% 42% 41% 41% 40% 40% 40%
38% 37%
33%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Austria
UK
Norway
Spain
Ireland
Portugal
Italy
Netherlands
Germany
Sweden
Canada
Denmark
Luxembourg
France
Belgium
USA
Sources: OECD, Allianz Research
Share of Covid-19 sensitive consumption
(% of total consumption)

7. © Copyright Allianz
We expect a start of tightening in monetary and financial
conditions in 2022, as markets anticipate the Fed will
hike interest rates in H2 2023. We expect the USD to
depreciate by -2.5% in 2021 (to 1.22) followed by an
appreciation of +3.0% in 2022 (1.18)
MONETARY POLICY: LOWER-FOR-MUCH-LONGER
Key interest rates vs 10-year yields
7
Central Banks Balance Sheets (% of GDP)
Sources: national sources, Allianz ResearchSources: national sources, Allianz Research
Global liquidity is at a record high level and should continue to
increase. The ECB is expected to announce EUR500bn
additional QE purchases in December. The Fed is likely to
continue to expand its balance sheet to USD7.7tn end of 2021,
before a progressive tapering starting in H2 2022.

8. © Copyright Allianz
One out of five companies in Belgium are directly
exposed to the Covid-19 sanitary restrictions. We expect
operating losses of up to -20% for these sectors which
combined with a fall in operating expenses of -10% and
slow recovery in the next 6 months, could put pressure
on cash balances of these companies.
INVESTMENT CYCLE: FISCAL RELIEF & STIMULUS
MEASURES WILL BE NEEDED IN 2021
Net savings, i.e. cash from operating activities
Sources: Eurostat, Allianz Research Sources: Eurostat, Allianz Research
8
2020Q1 2020Q2
Gross VA -9% -14%
Compensation employees -18% 0%
(-) Other taxes on production -21% 5%
(+) Other subsidies on production 7% 57%
(=) Gross operating surplus 10% -25%
Margins 43.8% 38.3%
(-) Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. -0.9 -3.1
(=) Net saving (cash from operating
activities)
10 -9
GFCF -19% -15%
Free cash flow -5.7 -22.2
Continued fiscal relief measures coupled with strong stimulus
plans in 2021 (more than 4%) could boost growth by up to
1.5pp in 2021. Belgian fiscal package of more than 4% of
GDP is positive news, but significant execution risks remain.
Sanitary restrictions
Fiscal cost per
quarter (% of GDP)
Level 1
Basic sanitary measures and social distancing; restrictions
on large gatherings, international travel; screening on
arrivals
<0.5
Level 2
Curfews; reinforcing remote working; cancellation of public
events and private gatherings up to 6 persons; partial
closing of some sectors
Up to 0.5%
Level 3
Regional lockdowns; full remote working and school
closing; shutdown of sectors Covid-19 sensitive;
restrictions on travel between regions
Up to 1%
Level 4
National lockdown, school closing and remote working;
international border closing
Above 2%

9. © Copyright Allianz
COVID-19: CONTINUED DIVERGENCE BETWEEN
MANUFACTURING, CONSTRUCTION AND SERVICES
9
Data for October showed that global trade in
goods was back to pre-crisis levels in volume
terms. But there’s also a price effect which
explains why it should be back to pre-crisis
USD value only in 2021.
Sources: CPB, Euler Hermes
Global merchandise trade in volume
(100 = Sept. 2008 and 100 = Feb. 2020)
Companies in the manufacturing sector
benefit from a faster recovery than
expected recovery in global trade in
goods
Sources: Eurostat, Allianz Research
Manufacturing sector confidence indicators
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Assessment of export order books
Production expectations in the manuf sector
Transport & travel services will go back
to pre-crisis levels in H2 2022. We
expect limited relocation/reshoring in
strategic sectors (agri-food, pharma) to
start to be visible in 2021.
Sources: CPB, Euler Hermes
18,7
16,6
18,7 19,3 20,3
2,5
1,1
1,6
2,1
2,5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
pre-crisis 2020 2021 2022 2023
Goods Travel and transport services Other services
Global trade in USD value terms, for goods
and services

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Chinese exports have surprisingly outperformed this
year. Out of the top 20 exporters in the world, China’s
total market share now stands at c.25%, compared to
c.20% on average of over 2017-19.
This gain is driven by strong global demand for
medical goods and electronics (in the context of the
Covid-19 pandemic), and construction and interior
decoration related goods (in an environment of low
interest rates).
COVID-19: CHINA WINNING EXPORTS MARKET
SHARE DESPITE THE CRISIS
China’s overall exports market share (%, out of top 20 exporters) China exports growth %y/y and contributions (pp)
Sources: International Trade Centre, Euler Hermes, Allianz Research Sources: International Trade Centre, Euler Hermes, Allianz Research
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2008 2009 2017
2018 2019 2020 -25
04-2018
07-2018
10-2018
01-2019
04-2019
07-2019
10-2019
01-2020
04-2020
07-2020
Other
Electrical

11. © Copyright Allianz
3 159 1 591
Transport equipment 969
Transport
equipment
423
Chemicals 409 Chemicals 242
Plastics and rubber 284 Plastics and rubber 137
Mineral products 216 Mineral products 135
Textile materials 207
Machinery and
electrical equipment
114
30-Nov-20 11
BREXIT: A ‘NO DEAL’ WOULD COST EUR3.1BN TO
BELGIAN EXPORTERS
Hard Brexit Soft Brexit
Footwear, headgear, umbrellas,
whips, riding-crops, feathers,
artificial flowers
21% Products of the plant kingdom 8%
Textile materials 21% Paper or cardboard 7%
Animal products and live animals 20% Pearls, precious stones and metals,
metals clad, imitation jewelry, coins
7%
Products of the plant kingdom 20% Mineral products 7%
Food and beverages, alcoholic
beverages, vinegars, tobacco
20% Wood, charcoal, cork, articles of
straw and plaiting materials,
basketware
7%
Transport equipment 19% Textile materials 7%
Animal or vegetable fats, oils and
waxes
19% Miscellaneous goods 7%
Plastics and rubber 18% Chemicals 7%
Leather, furskins, saddlery,
harness, travel goods, handbags
16% Plastics and rubber 7%
Articles of stone, plaster, cement,
asbestos, mica, ceramic products,
glass and glassware
15% Machinery and electrical equipment 7%
Increases in import prices (rounded) for
Top 10 most impacted products
Export loss by country & Brexit scenario in value (top
5 main exposed sectors), EUR million
Source: Euler Hermes, Allianz Research
Source: Euler Hermes, Allianz Research

12. © Copyright Allianz
Source: Euler Hermes, Allianz Research
Elections in Africa
Oct 2020: Morocco (PJD expected status-quo with
poor majority and delayed entry into office)
Oct 2020: Ivory Coast (Ouattara expected to be re-
elected but with political instability)
Nov 2020: Burkina Faso (Kaboré expected to be re-
elected but with period of political paralysis)
Nov 2020: Egypt (status quo to be expected)
Mali: Ghana (either incumbent Nana Akufo-Addo or
former president John Mahama to win)
Other Elections : Tanzania, Liberia, Central African
Republic, Seychelles, Guinea, Somalia, Chad, lybia,
Soudan, Niger
Tunisia: new government formation may create
instability
GLOBAL: PREVAILING HIGH POLITICAL RISK IN 2021
Latin America unrests
- Brazil: October 2020 local elections (challenging for
Bolsonaro’s new party), risk of social tensions with
public sector reform
Middle East main tension points
Large scale anti-government protests in Lebanon, Iraq and Iran
- Iran: impact of US withdrawal from JCPOA and new US sanctions, as
well as potential counter measures. Parliamentary election in February
as a potential source of geopolitical tension
- Lebanon: political uncertainties and potential new proxy war between
Saudi and Iran
- Yemen: Sunni v. Shia
- Saudi vs. Iran, incl. Straits of Hormuz, revisited
- Qatar vs. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Egypt (blockade)
- Israel: impact of Jerusalem recognition by the US
- Turkey: Tensions with Greece
U.S.-China tensions
Technology cold war to intensify
whatever the outcome of US
elections
12
Elections in Europe
Sept/Oct 2021: Germany (CDU/Greens coalition expected to win with higher
public investment for greening the economy)
Sep 2021: Russia Duma (United Russia expected to win). Tensions with US
on the rise
Oct 2021: Czechia (ANO expected to win without a majority)
Nov 2021: Bulgaria (GERB expected to win)
Asia-Pacific (geo)political risks to watch
Hong Kong: legislative council election postponed by one
year to September 2021. New protests are possible.
Taiwan: cross-strait relations still tense, with possible
interventionism of the U.S.
Japan: potential snap elections in Q4 2020.
Thailand: anti-government protests to be closely monitored
India: potential boomerang effect related to the Citizenship
Amendment Act.
China: long-term trend of isolation of China on the
international stage could continue. Australia, India, Japan
and Taiwan have been putting policies in place.
Other elections: New Zealand (Oct 2020), Myanmar (Nov
2020), Vietnam (May 2021)
November 03, 2020
US presidential election
Predicted outcome:
60% Democrats win
40% Republicans win
High probability of a close race with
disputed result leading to high market’s
volatility and Supreme Court’s final say
Key Summits
G20: November 21-22, 2020Brexit: 55% probability for a very last minute
agreement with FTA implementation by mid-
2021
45% probability for a no deal with early
elections and a comeback to the negotiating
table in 2021

13. © Copyright Allianz
SOCIAL RISK ON THE RISE, FISCAL DILEMMA AHEAD?
Watch list for potential social tensions in 2020-2021 Taxes – companies vs households (OECD average)
Sources: National statistics, IMF, World Bank, ILO, OECD, IHS Markit, Wellcome Trust Global Monitor,
RAND Corporation, Allianz Research
Sources: OECD, Euler Hermes, Allianz Research
13

14. © Copyright Allianz 14
PROTRACTED CRISIS SCENARIO (30%)
DELAYED U-SHAPED RECOVERY PROTRACTED CRISIS
GROWTH &
ECONOMIC
POLICY
• Light lockdowns delay the recovery, but do not
jeopardize it. Economic cost 30-50% of April lockdown
• The recovery is expected to gain traction in Q2 2021
driven by the US and Europe. Higher confidence effects
and ongoing policy support trigger deployment of
precautionary savings - corporate investment reacts
strongly already in Q2 as the vaccination campaign is
moving ahead according to expectations whereas
household spending is booming from Q3 2021 onwards.
• Policy mistakes (health, economic, social)
• Fiscal policy not aggressive enough (prolonged relief in
2021 & stimulus implementation)
• Rise in political risk; ineffective monetary policy
• Unmanaged banking sector risks (no extension to public
guarantee schemes, liquidity stress)
HEALTH
POLICY
• Better coordination & strong investment in health system
allow for better virus management. Elevated sanitary
restrictions until at least Easter to avoid another
wave/lockdown.
• Distribution hurdles as well as prevailing vaccination
skepticism, mainly across Western European countries,
but also supply side bottlenecks in the emerging markets
don't allow for a mass-vaccination campaign which
requires some sanitary restrictions to still be maintained
throughout 2021.
• (Health) policy mistakes, e.g. fast reopenings, slow
investments in Track & Trace lead to uncontrolled third
wave and renewed (light) lockdowns before summer
2021.
• Negative news on the vaccine front (i.e. mutation risk,
short longevity, lower-than-expected efficacy plus
significant unresolved supply & demand bottlenecks
during the vaccination campaign) trigger negative
confidence shock.
ECONOMIC
IMPACT
BASECASE
WORSTCASE
GDP growth, % 2020 2021
World -4.5 +4.4
US -4.2 +3.6
China +2.0 +8.4
Eurozone -7.6 +4.1
UK - 12.0 +2.0
Global trade
volume
2020
-10%
2021
+7%
Insolvencies 2020-22
+30%
GDP growth, % 2020 2021
World -4.6 -2.6
US -4.3 -4.1
China +1.9 +1.5
Eurozone -7.6 -3.7
UK -12.0 -9.0
Global trade
volume
2020
-12%
2021
-5%
Insolvencies 2020-22
+75%

15. © Copyright Allianz
The drop in insolvencies is not only massive but also broad-based over all major dimensions with double-digit slumps
recorded for almost all economic activities, all sizes of companies in terms of number of employees and all geographical
localization. The major exception concerns the 100+ employees, with 12 cases ytd (compared to 8 in 2019).
INSOLVENCIES: (ALMOST) NO EXCEPTION
Insolvencies by sector, ytd figures Insolvencies by region, and by size of companies,
ytd figures
Sources: StatBel, Euler Hermes, Allianz Research Sources: StatBel, Euler Hermes, Allianz Research
15
Jan to Oct y/y change Share
0 - 4 employees 5 650 -31% 92%
5 - 9 employees 271 -26% 4%
10 - 19 employees 122 -18% 2%
20-49 employees 51 -15% 1%
50 - 99 employees 12 -29% 0%
100 - 199 employees 6 ns 0%
200 - 499 employees 4 ns 0%
500 - 999 employees 1 ns 0%
1000+ employees 1 ns 0%
Total 6 118 -31% 100%
Jan to Oct y/y change Share
Flanders region 3 192 -22% 52%
Brussels-capitalregion 1 272 -49% 21%
Walloon region 1 654 -26% 27%
Total 6 118 -31% 100%
Jan to Oct y/y change Share
Agriculture 50 -26% 1%
Manufacturing 238 -34% 4%
Energy 3 -57% 0%
Water 9 -44% 0%
Construction 1 080 -34% 18%
Trade 1 391 -33% 23%
Transport 324 -22% 5%
Hotels/restaurants 1 208 -28% 20%
Information/communication 222 -19% 4%
Finance/Insurance 51 -31% 1%
Real estate 120 -42% 2%
Specialized and business services 514 -31% 8%
Administrative 387 -25% 6%
Education 41 2% 1%
Wealth, Social 112 -46% 2%
Arts, events, leisures 153 -6% 3%
Other services 212 -38% 3%
Total 6 118 -31% 100%

16. © Copyright Allianz
Country Last data y/y
Last 3m
y/y
Last 6m
y/y
Last 12m
y/y
Ytd y/y Trend
Italy 2020 Q2 - -72% -46% -22% -46% Steady decrease
France 10-2020 -41% -37% -40% -33% -38% Steady decrease
Austria 2020 Q3 -51% -46% -25% -33% Steady decrease
Belgium 10-2020 -34% -30% -39% -25% -31% Steady decrease
United Kingdom 2020 Q3 -39% -39% -21% -29% Steady decrease
Norw ay 09-2020 -21% -28% -28% -15% -20% Steady decrease
Sw itzerland 10-2020 -11% -18% -18% -14% -17% Steady decrease
Denmark 10-2020 -34% -17% -13% -8% -13% Steady decrease
The Netherlands 10-2020 -45% -32% -21% -9% -12% Steady decrease
Germany 08-2020 -35% -19% -14% -9% -11% Steady decrease
Sw eden 10-2020 -34% -33% -17% -4% -3% Steady decrease
Ireland 09-2020 22% 22% 11% -14% -2% Recent trend reversal
Spain 08-2020 73% 13% -24% -1% -1% Recent trend reversal
Major economic downturns usually bring an upturn in insolvencies, for logical reasons (companies suffering big losses
suddenly struggle to survive and many fail). Yet, the COVID-19 pandemic has prompted most governments to decide (i)
policy measures designed to avoid liquidity and (ii) changes in insolvency frameworks designed to give time and flexibility to
companies before they resort to filing for bankruptcy. The resurgence of the virus lead most of them to extend or create new
measures to support companies struggling because of the renewed lockdowns and social distancing measures.
A PARADOXAL DROP DUE TO THE WAVES OF
MASSIVE, URGENT BUT TEMPORARY SUPPORTS
European insolvencies pulse checkInsolvencies and economic cyle, Europe
Sources: various, Euler Hermes, Allianz Research Sources: various, Euler Hermes, Allianz Research
16
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Insolvency Index Western Europe (lhs)
Real GDP growth - Western Europe (rhs,
reversed axis)

17. © Copyright Allianz
Lockdowns will have an heavy cost for Covid-19 sensitive sectors across the Eurozone (with operating losses averaging -
15%/-20% in 2020 compared to pre-crisis levels). In the absence of prolonged fiscal policy support or an aversion to
taking on more debt, this could dry up cash buffers, putting around 24% of Eurozone companies at risk of a cash-flow
crisis next year. One out of five companies in Belgium are directly exposed to the Covid-19 sanitary restrictions (vs. one
out of four in France and Germany). Their combined turnover exceeds EUR200bn and they account for more than one
out of five workers.
Enterprises -
number
% of the
country
% of EZ
total
Turnover -
million euro
% of the
country
% of EZ
total
Gross
operating
surplus -
million euro
% of the
country
% of EZ
total
Employees in
full time
equivalent units
- number
% of the
country
% of EZ
total
Germany 647 468 25% 16% 1 247 794 18% 29% 119 737 18% 32% 5 837 758 24% 31%
France 689 825 24% 17% 858 997 22% 20% 50 377 19% 13% 2 854 689 23% 15%
Italy 798 442 22% 19% 711 730 23% 16% 68 411 20% 18% 2 644 887 27% 14%
Spain 603 865 23% 15% 475 917 23% 11% 42 705 21% 11% 2 633 668 28% 14%
Belgium 125 132 20% 3% 219 163 20% 5% 17 588 13% 5% 422 813 21% 2%
Netherlands 252 204 21% 6% 236 430 14% 5% 26 353 15% 7% 772 645 19% 4%
Portugal 241 590 27% 6% 99 057 26% 2% 8 730 23% 2% 933 132 34% 5%
other countries 793 529 29% 19% 499 717 18% 11% 40 904 12% 11% 2 848 296 29% 15%
Eurozone 4 152 055 24% 100% 4 348 805 20% 100% 374 805 17% 100% 18 947 888 25% 100%
THE PHASE OUT OF THE SUPPORTS WILL BE KEY:
WATCH OUT FOR BUSINESSES AT RISK (1/2)
Covid-19 sensitive sectors, European countries
(*) Automotive: retailers, wholesalers, suppliers, car rental (excludes car manufacturers)
Sources: Eurostat, Euler Hermes, Allianz Research
17

18. © Copyright Allianz
The Covid-19 sensitive sectors, defined by those which posted the largest drop in activity in H1 2020, represent
slighty more than 125,000 companies and almost 423,000 employees. We found them first in the hotels and
restaurants and leisure activities, but also in the automotive sub-sectors and the services. Yet, the biggest number
of employees at risk remains on the retail trade of non-essential goods.
Enterprises -
number
% of the
country
Turnover -
million euro
% of the
country
Gross
operating
surplus -
million euro
% of the
country
Employees in
full time
equivalent
units - number
% of the
country
Household equipment (textile, wearing apparel) 1 672 0% 3 908 0% 351 0% 13 681 1%
Non-essential retail trade 13 101 2% 37 328 3% 2 281 2% 90 478 5%
Transportation services 9 679 2% 15 114 1% 2 269 2% 69 507 3%
Automotive (*) 22 539 4% 100 931 9% 5 349 4% 68 710 3%
Hotels and restaurants, leisures activities 51 075 8% 16 382 1% 2 772 2% 81 976 4%
Other industries 7 212 1% 35 172 3% 2 955 2% 62 499 3%
Other services 19 854 3% 10 329 1% 1 612 1% 35 962 2%
Belgium 125 132 20% 219 163 20% 17 588 13% 422 813 21%
THE PHASE OUT OF THE SUPPORTS WILL BE KEY:
WATCH OUT FOR BUSINESSES AT RISK (2/2)
Covid-19 sensitive sectors, Belgium
(*) Automotive: retailers, wholesalers, suppliers, car rental (excludes car manufacturers)
Sources: Eurostat, Euler Hermes, Allianz Research
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19. © Copyright Allianz
We estimate that, even before the Coronavirus outbreak, 13,000 SMEs and MidCaps in the Eurozone were already at-risk
when looking at their trend in terms of profitability, capitalization and interest coverage (ie 7% of the 200,000 SMEs and
Midcaps studied in Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and Belgium). In Belgium, we find 8% of total SMEs and
Midcaps at risk, with construction, agrifood and services most impacted sectors, and with a high concentration of ‘zombie
companies’ in the top five sectors (64% compared to 67% in France and the Netherlands (67%) and less than 60% in
Germany and Italy.
THE PHASE OUT OF THE SUPPORTS WILL BE KEY:
WATCH OUT FOR (NEW) ZOMBIE COMPANIES
Sources: Euler Hermes, Allianz Research
19
Share of SME & MidCaps at risk, % of total Share of SME & MidCaps at risk, % of total – top 5
sectors
Germany France Italy
Construction 15% Services 20% Construction 16%
Metals 11% Construction 19% Agrifood 11%
Agrifood 11% Retail 12% Services 11%
Machinery 10% Automotive 8% Retail 9%
Services 10% Agrifood 8% Machinery 9%
Spain Belgium The Netherlands
Agrifood 18% Construction 20% Services 26%
Construction 16% Services 15% Construction 12%
Services 15% Agrifood 10% Agrifood 11%
Transport 9% Retail 9% Automotive 9%
Automotive 6% Transport 9% Machinery 9%
Sources: Euler Hermes, Allianz Research

20. © Copyright Allianz
3856
4398
5237
6135
6472
7136
7539
7751
6924
7163
6791
7062
7171
7565
7910
7877
7617
7677
8472
9421
9579
10224
10587
11740
10736
9762
9170
9968
9878
10598
7300
12300
13000
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020f
2022f
While renewed supports are more targeted, we believe the extension of generous partial unemployment schemes, state
guaranteed loans and tax deferrals increases the risk of keeping insolvencies artificially low until mid-2021 notably in
Europe. Then, we should record a double movement with (i) insolvencies which should have occurred over the last 6
months (those of companies which were no longer viable before the crisis and temporarily took advantage of emergency
measures) and (ii) insolvencies linked to the shock suffered in a certain number of sectors (those of companies weakened
the excess of indebtedness resulting from the crisis).
INSOLVENCIES TO REMAIN ARTIFICIALLY LOWER FOR
LONGER FOLLOWING RENEWED SUPPORT MEASURES
Insolvencies in Belgium, annual figures
Sources: StatBel, Euler Hermes, Allianz Research
20
EH Global Insolvency Index, changes in forecasts,
basis 100: 2019
Sources: Euler Hermes, Allianz Research
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Jan. Mar. June Sept. Latest
(provisional)
2020 f. 2021 f. 2022 f.

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At a global level, Q3 20 recorded +29 cases y/y to 114 cases, while Q2 posted +70 cases y/y, with a similar pattern in terms
of severity: the combined turnover of major insolvencies increased by +26% y/y in Q3 to EUR64.9bn (after +125% y/y in
Q2). As of end of Q3, 2020 registers 335 cases (+87 y/y) with a higher number in retail (+36 cases y/y to 73), services (+19
to 45), automotive (+16 to 25) and energy (+13 to 40). North America posts the largest increase in major insolvencies (+65
y/y), due notably to retail (+22), energy (+18) and services (+14); Western Europe remains the key contributor to the global
count of major insolvencies with 123 cases (+20). Asia, Latam and Central/Eastern Europe all experience a stable number
of major insolvencies compared to last year but the latter masks diverging trend between sectors.
WATCH OUT FOR MAJOR INSOLVENCIES: ONE
EVERY 20 HOURS SINCE THE START OF THE YEAR
Number of major insolvencies*
(by size of turnover in million of EUR)
Major insolvencies* by sector and by region
(number of insolvencies)
(*) Companies with a turnover exceeding EUR50mn. Source: Euler Hermes (*) Companies with a turnover exceeding EUR50mn. Source: Euler Hermes
21
Africa/Middle
East and Latin
America
North
America
Central &
Eastern
Europe
Asia
Pacific
Western
Europe
Total
Household equipment - - - - - - 5
Transport equipment - - - - - - 1
Chemicals - - - - 1 1 4
Computers & Telecom - - - 1 - 1 4
Paper - - - 1 - 1 7
Pharmaceuticals - 2 - - - 2 6
Commodities - - 1 2 - 3 8
Machinery/Equipment - 1 - 2 - 3 11
Metals - - - - 4 4 17
Agrifood - - 1 - 4 5 17
Transportation 1 1 2 1 1 6 12
Textile - - - 1 6 7 14
Automotive - 3 - 3 2 8 25
Electronics 1 - 1 4 2 8 13
Construction - 1 2 5 5 13 33
Services - 8 - 2 4 14 45
Energy - 12 1 2 1 16 40
Retail - 14 2 - 6 22 73
Q3 2020 2 42 10 24 36 114 335
YTD 2020 4 116 28 64 123 335
Q3 2020
YTD 2020

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SECTORIAL DIVERGENCE: MOST GLOBAL SECTORS
STILL BELOW PRE-CRISIS LEVELS UNTIL 2022
22
2021 2022 2023
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
BEYOND 2023NO DETERIORATION
• (Food) Retail
• Pharmaceuticals
• Agrifood (food)
• Electronics
• Agrifood (farming)
• Telecoms
• Transportation (rail)
• Metals
• IT (services)
• Agrifood (beverages)
• Chemicals
• Machinery
• Construction
• Transportation
(sea, road)
• Paper
• Hotels/Restaurants
• Transport equipment (aircraft)
• (Non-food) Retail
• Transportation (air)
2023
H2 2021
H1 2021 H1 2022
H2 2022
• Household equipment
• Automotive (manufacturers/retailers)
• Automotive suppliers
• Energy
• Textiles
• Transport equipment (ship, truck, train)
Timeline recovery to pre-crisis levels

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THANK YOU
© Ekaterina Pokrovsky - stock.adobe.com
Ana Boata, Head of
Macroeconomic Research
Maxime Lemerle, Head of
Sector Research