Show Me Solar: Clean, Local Power for Missouri's Economy

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A presentation exploring the technical and economic potential of solar power, its enormous value to the grid, and the opportunities for its expansion. Given to the Missouri Solar Energy Industries Association on Feb. 1, 2014, by the Institute for Local Self-Reliance's Director of Democratic Energy, John Farrell.

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  • Wow! To say that John is brilliant would be selling him short. Very impressive analysis of Missouri's solar trajectory! Show Me Solar!
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Show Me Solar: Clean, Local Power for Missouri's Economy

  1. 1. MOSEIA 2014 ANNUAL CONFERENCE SHOW ME SOLAR: CLEAN, LOCAL POWER FOR MISSOURI’S ECONOMY February 1, 2014 John Farrell Director of Democratic Energy
  2. 2. SHOW ME U.S. Congressman Willard Duncan Vandiver "I come from a state that raises corn and cotton and cockleburs and Democrats, and frothy eloquence neither convinces nor satisfies me. I am from Missouri. You have got to show me."
  3. 3. SHOW ME A number of miners from the lead districts of southwest Missouri had been imported to take the places of Colorado mine strikers. The Joplin miners…required frequent instructions. Pit bosses began saying, "That man is from Missouri. You'll have to show him."
  4. 4. POTENTIAL
  5. 5. LOCAL RENEWABLE POTENTIAL 32 states - 100%+ POTENTIAL PERCENT OF POWER FROM LOCAL RENEWABLES http://bit.ly/EnergySelfReliantStates 100% or more 50 to 100% 25 to 50% 10 to 25% 10% or less
  6. 6. What percent of Missouri electricity could come from rooftop solar alone?
  7. 7. LOCAL SOLAR POTENTIAL 23% 19% 21% 23% 14% 51% 52% 38% 49% 19% 41% 26% 25% 28% 24% 24% 22% 15% 23% 21% 23% 12% 18% 24% 18% 20% 19% 26% 11% 24% 19% 28% 23% 19% 21% 23% 20% 17% 35% 23% 18% 25% 21% 21% 24% 22% 20% 31% 49% Residential and Commercial roofs 42% POTENTIAL PERCENT OF POWER FROM LOCAL ROOFTOP SOLAR 50% or more 25 to 50% 10 to 25% 0 to 10%
  8. 8. LOCAL SOLAR POTENTIAL 13,000 MW 21%
  9. 9. LOCAL SOLAR POTENTIAL 13,000 MW $14 billion 150,000 jobs NREL JEDI model - $3/Watt installed cost – http://cl.ly/013W2A0z2F0V 21%
  10. 10. 20¢ S O L A R PA R I T Y Unsubsidized Solar Parity 15¢ 10¢ 5¢ ice lectricity pr retail e Subsidized Solar Parity levelized cost over 25 yrs. – ¢ per kilowatt-hour 0¢ Past Now Future
  11. 11. How fast are electricity prices rising?
  12. 12. R A P I D LY R I S I N G A V E R A G E R E TA I L ELECTRICITY PRICES IN MISSOURI 12¢ 5% per year 9¢ 6¢ 3¢ 0¢ 2003 Residential Commercial Industrial 2004 2005 ¢ per kilowatt-hour 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: EIA 2010 2011 2012 2013
  13. 13. S O L A R PA R I T Y C O M E T H (Missouri) 30¢ Residential Elec. Commercial Elec. Industrial Elec. Solar No Subsidy Solar w/ ITC Solar w/ ITC+Rebate 20¢ 10¢ ¢ per kilowatt-hour 0¢ 2010 See http://www.ilsr.org/projects/solarparitymap/ for assumptions 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
  14. 14. S O L A R “ PA R I T Y ” H E R E ? (Missouri) 30¢ Residential Elec. Commercial Elec. Industrial Elec. Solar No Subsidy Solar w/ ITC Solar w/ ITC+Rebate 20¢ 10¢ ¢ per kilowatt-hour 0¢ 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
  15. 15. S O L A R PA R I T Y C O M E T H (Missouri) 30¢ Residential Elec. Commercial Elec. Industrial Elec. Solar No Subsidy Solar w/ ITC Solar w/ ITC+Rebate 20¢ 10¢ ¢ per kilowatt-hour 0¢ 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
  16. 16. Distributed Solar Potential at Parity (unsubsidized) by 2022 (residential and commercial MW) 1140 360 1200 2600 1100 800 2400 26,000 1400 7300 700 580 4400 7200 970 11,000 2900 2300 4800 4100 5000 1800 32,000 590 750 Source: http://www.ilsr.org/commercial-roofop-revolution/ 20 12,000 780 11,000 72001800 5500 10,000 5100 11,000 19008200 6800 3600 12,000 11,000 2800 7000 7100 4000 5100 8500 16,000 Percent of Sales 1-5% 30,000 5-10% 10% or more 990
  17. 17. VA L U A B L E
  18. 18. L O C A L S O L A R VA L U E 13,000 MW $14 billion 150,000 jobs NREL JEDI model - $3/Watt installed cost – http://cl.ly/013W2A0z2F0V 21%
  19. 19. PRODUCING ELECTRICITY TO MEET DEMAND Electricity Deamnd WITH BASELOAD Fast peaking (e.g. gas combustion turbine) Intermediate peaking (e.g. natural gas combined cycle) Baseload (coal or nuclear) 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM Time of day Adapted from David Mills: http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2010/12/02/3081889.htm
  20. 20. PRODUCING ELECTRICITY TO MEET DEMAND Electricity Deamnd WITH BASELOAD Fast peaking (e.g. gas combustion turbine) Intermediate peaking (e.g. natural gas combined cycle) Baseload (coal or nuclear) 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM Time of day Adapted from David Mills: http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2010/12/02/3081889.htm
  21. 21. 3¢ 8¢ 5¢ What’s the value of solar? 10¢ 15¢ (¢ per kWh) 12¢
  22. 22. 14¢ 12.8¢ 12¢ (per kWh) 10¢ Loss Savings T&D Deferral 8¢ Environment Gen. capacity 6¢ Energy 4¢ 2¢ Utilities value DG Austin Energy Value of Solar Tariff 0¢ Source: The Value of Distributed Photovoltaics to Austin Energy and the City of Austin
  23. 23. $0.14 13.5¢ $0.11 (per kWh) Local capacity value Avoided transmission access $0.08 Environmental (RPS compliance) Avoided transmission losses Brown energy replacement $0.06 $0.03 Utilities value DG $0.00 Palo Alto CLEAN Program
  24. 24. $0.14 Coming soon… $0.11 (per kWh) Local capacity value Avoided transmission access $0.08 Environmental (RPS compliance) Avoided transmission losses Brown energy replacement $0.06 $0.03 Utilities value DG $0.00 Minnesota Value of Solar
  25. 25. L O C A L P O W E R VA L U E Not local 0 very negative 25 50 negative neutral 75 positive 100 very positive Attitude towards increased use of local wind energy
  26. 26. L O C A L P O W E R VA L U E Not local -44% +77% net approval Local Ownership +33% 0 very negative 25 50 negative neutral 75 positive 100 very positive Attitude towards increased use of local wind energy
  27. 27. Germany’s Energy Revolution Still People Powered Other 54% Individuals & Farmers 46% 29,000 MW 20% renewable
  28. 28. MISSOURI’S PROP C WITH LOCAL RENEWABLES 34% Yes votes 66%
  29. 29. S U R M O U N TA B L E BARRIERS
  30. 30. INTERMITTENCY
  31. 31. A TINY PROBLEM Solar 1% 99%
  32. 32. E A S I LY A C C O M M O D AT E D Geographic Dispersion Lowers Solar Backup Costs $0.04 $0.040 $0.03 $ per kWh $0.02 $0.010 $0.01 $0.00 $0.001 1 location 5 locations 25 locations Implications of Wide-Area Geographic Diversity for Short- Term Variability of Solar Power (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)
  33. 33. S U N I S P R E D I C TA B L E
  34. 34. W E AT H E R I S T O O
  35. 35. W E AT H E R I S T O O Nov. 10, 2011 BOULDER, Colo. Advanced Wind Forecasts Save Millions of Dollars for Xcel Energy
  36. 36. G R E AT O P P O R T U N I T Y
  37. 37. REDUCE PEAK ENERGY Cut peak demand Cut bill by 20%
  38. 38. S AV E M O N E Y Virginia Solar saves money for every Habitat house in VA
  39. 39. R E P L I C AT E
  40. 40. ORGANIZE Mt. Pleasant Solar Cooperative Group purchasing; then advocate for solar policy!
  41. 41. POLICY
  42. 42. LOCAL PERMITTING 40% 39% 30% As the cost of solar falls... 20% 19% 13% 10% 5% erm p 22% ined aml 15% stre s from 12% saving ...the 6% 8% Approx. year for residential installation* 0% $6.00 ise gr tin it 26% $5.00 2013 2017 $4.00 $3.00 Installed Cost per Watt Data from The Impact of City-level Permitting Processes on Residential Photovoltaic Installation Prices and Development Times (LBNL, 2013) *From ILSR’s Rooftop Revolution reports: http://www.ilsr.org/rooftop-revolution/ 2023 $2.00
  43. 43. LOCAL PERMITTING Leading Cities Vote Solar: Project Permit
  44. 44. S O L A R M A N D AT E S • Lancaster • Sebastapol
  45. 45. LOCAL ENERGY FINANCING http://pacenow.org/resources/all-programs/#Missouri
  46. 46. VA L U E O F S O L A R Karl Rabago
  47. 47. Virtual Net Metering Policies (2013) http://www.ilsr.org/virtual-net-metering/ State VNM Eligibility California Multi-tenant properties, local governments Colorado IOU customers; solar gardens Connecticut Municipal customers only Dist. of Columbia All customers Illinois Utility choice to offer Maine All customers Maryland Allowed for agricultural customers, non-profit organizations, and municipal governments or their affiliates Massachusetts All customers Minnesota Xcel Energy customers only, awaiting rulemaking, 10/16/13 Rhode Island Local and state governments Vermont All customers
  48. 48. COMMUNITY CHOICE Active CCAs Learn more: http://www.ilsr.org/city-power-play/ No active CCAs
  49. 49. FRANCHISE Learn more: http://www.ilsr.org/organizing-givingcity-minneapolis-energy-future/ Cities Utilities LEVERAGE
  50. 50. LOCAL POWER Coal 2x cleaner More local $ BOULDER S A N TA F E
  51. 51. THANK YOU! 13,000 MW $14 billion 21% 150,000 jobs http://www.ilsr.org/rooftop-revolution/

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