The Syrian conflict involves many actors with differing geopolitical interests. It began as conflict between Assad and rebels but grew as other groups like ISIS and Kurds joined. The US, Russia, Iran, and Saudi Arabia are now involved but pursue their own goals rather than just fighting ISIS. Erdogan's dictatorship in Turkey threatens conflict between secularists, Kurds, and Islamists and may lead to civil war with consequences for the region. The refugee crisis and potential territorial expansion of ISIS could lead to wider war across the Middle East.

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THE COMPLICATED SYRIAN CONFLICT GEOPOLITICAL CHESS
Fernando Alcoforado *
The Syrian conflict lasts five years and has revived old hatreds. Syria is now the
epicenter of a battle that brings together various actors: the great enemy regional powers
(Iran and Saudi Arabia) and historical allies (the United States of Saudi Arabia and
Russia of Iran). It became clear that the geopolitical interests of the parties involved are
very different. The Syrian conflict began when Bashar Al Assad launched an offensive
against the rebels of the Free Syrian Army. However, other actors came on the scene,
just within the rebel movement, followed by the extremists of the Islamic State (ISIS)
and the Kurds.
This is a complex situation that reached its peak with the arrival on the scene of the
United States, Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia. Officially each of the parties has a
common enemy: the Islamic State (ISIS). The coalition led by the United States is
fighting against Islamic extremists, such as Russia and Turkey. But on the ground,
fighting of each country is also guided by other goals. Russia, faithful ally of Syria,
essentially bombards the anti-Assad rebels to prevent the fall of Bashar Al Assad.
Turkey, the second largest army in NATO, essentially attacks the Kurds.
Currently, war consists mainly of words and aerial bombardments. Turks and Saudis are
on the same side, that is, against Syria's President Bashar Al Assad. Turkey and Saudi
Arabia consider that the Syrian President Bashar Al Assad is not part of the solution for
the future of Syria. While the Syrian conflict evolves, instability in Turkey intensified
with the establishment of the dictatorship Erdogan and the worsening of internal
political conflicts, including the Kurds. With Erdogan dictatorship and the Islamization
of Turkey, this country will inevitably forward to the confrontation, on the one hand,
between the Ataturk legacy of partisan defense of the secular state and the Kurds who
are fighting for their independence and, the other, between the supporters of Turkey
Islamization and defenders of the Islamic State.
The confrontation between Erdogan and his opponents may come to civil war in Turkey
that will shake the entire region of unpredictable geopolitical consequences. With
Erdogan dictatorship in Turkey, relations of this country with the United States and
NATO itself could be radically modified. The US government was accused of having
sponsored the failed coup against Erdogan and is prevented from using the Turkish base
Incirlik to bomb the Islamic State. This attitude shows that there is the intention of
Turkey under Erdogan to further align with Saudi Arabia and the Islamic State to fight
against Bashar Al Assad regime in Syria.
Join all this, we have the issue of Syrian refugees. Since 2011, Turkey received 1.7
million Syrian refugees, a migration that put a heavy burden on the institutions and the
Turkish society and helped to undermine the political power of Erdogan in the regions
of the border with Syria. The Kurdish division in Turkey has begun and will accelerate.
This division will happen and there may be an internal conflict. Turkey lost the chance
to dialogue with the Kurds to maintain a shared country. The Kurdish division will
affect the region and will accelerate the union of the Kurds in Iraq, Syria and Turkey.
The political scenario in the Middle East, with the disintegration of Syria, possible civil
war in Turkey, increasing the number of refugees and the territorial expansion of the
Islamic State, in addition to the intervention of countries like the United States, Russia,

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China and France, can lead the region to a major war. In addition to the dramatic
situation in Syria, with a civil war that has completed five years, the situation is equally
fragile in countries such as Iraq and the border areas with Iran and Turkey itself, where
about 15 million Kurds, a people who after the 1st world war, it was divided and now
lives in four countries.
This is a complex situation that reached its peak with the arrival on the scene of the
United States, Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia. Officially each of the parties has a
common enemy: the Islamic State (ISIS). The coalition led by the United States intends
to fight against Islamic extremists, such as Russia and Turkey. But on the ground,
fighting of each country is guided by other goals. Russia, faithful ally of Syria,
essentially bombards the anti-Assad rebels. Turkey, the second largest army in NATO,
attacks the Kurds.
Currently, war consists mainly of words and aerial bombardments. Saudi Arabia sent
fighter jets to the Turkish base Incirlik. Turks and Saudis are on the same side, that is,
against Syria's President Bashar Al Assad. Both contributed to the formation of the
Islamic State because it was contrary to the dictator Bashar al-Assad. Turkey and Saudi
Arabia consider that the Syrian President Bashar Al Assad is not part of the solution for
the future of Syria. If the United States takes the decision to send troops to Syria, Saudi
Arabia is prepared to participate in this effort by sending Special Forces. What will
happen if Turkey move from words to deeds and send troops to the ground, exposing
themselves to the Russian attacks? What will happen if Saudi troops are on the ground
against the Iranians?
While the Syrian conflict evolves, instability in Turkey intensified with the
establishment of the Erdogan dictatorship and the worsening internal political conflicts,
including the Kurds. With Erdogan dictatorship, Turkey inevitably forward to the
confrontation, on the one hand, between the supporters of Ataturk's legacy who defend
the secular state and the Kurds who are fighting for their independence, and the other,
between the supporters of Islamization of Turkey and supporters of the Islamic State.
This confrontation may create civil war in Turkey that will shake the entire region of
unpredictable geopolitical consequences.
Join all this the issue of Syrian refugees. Since 2011, Turkey received 1.7 million Syrian
refugees, a migration that put a heavy burden on the institutions and the Turkish society
and helped to undermine the political power of Erdogan in the regions of the border
with Syria. The Kurdish division in Turkey has begun and will accelerate. This division
will happen and there may be an internal conflict. Turkey lost the chance to dialogue
with the Kurds to maintain a shared country. The Kurdish division will affect the region
and will accelerate the union of the Kurds in Iraq, Syria and Turkey.
Turkey does not want a total war in the Middle East which would represent the
complete destruction of the region. The stability and prosperity of the region are of
utmost importance for Turkey what motivates the country to promote advances in
bilateral relations with the countries of the region and work with its friends and allies
towards this goal. The political scenario in the Middle East, with the disintegration of
Syria, the increasing number of refugees and the territorial expansion of the Islamic
State, in addition to the intervention of countries like the United States, Russia, China
and France, could lead the region to a war of large proportions.

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All that has just been reported is a test of the 4th world war. With Russia's entry into the
conflict, the United States also want to strengthen their position. China adopted pro-
Assad position. Russia has warned that if France bombed Syria, she will react. The
outcome of the next presidential elections in the United States may also influence the
geopolitics of the Middle East. If the Republican Party wins elections with Donald
Trump, it will increase the chances of a direct US military intervention in the region and
a global conflagration.
It can be said that Syria has a key strategic importance because it is the last “stone” of
the existing geopolitical chess in the region, whose fall would lead to the encirclement
of Iran, allowing Western allies reach the territory of this country by the Mediterranean
Sea and Iraq that would guarantee passage of allied troops to reach Iranian borders.
Syria, which borders with Israel, has always been important in the Middle East and,
especially today, is part of a very delicate geopolitical chess because it is an ally of Iran,
along with who sponsors extremely aggressive terrorist movements such as Hezbollah
and Hamas opposed the State of Israel.
In addition to conflicts between Palestine and Israel, Iran and Israel and Western powers
and Arab countries, there is now a conflict between the Sunni countries, led by Saudi
Arabia against Shiite led by Iran and its allies. Although it is not a country of Shiite
majority, Syria aligned with Iraq, which is majority Shiite and Iran is totally Shiite
against Sunni Saudis and all the Gulf monarchies. In turn, Russia has major interests in
the region, for a long time, since the 1950s, has an alliance with Syria. With the help of
Russia, Syria has received large shipments of arms and implemented a comprehensive
air defense network, which could make it difficult to maintain a no-fly zone imposed by
the UN, if implemented in the future. One must also consider the fact that it is through
Syria that Russia can monitor the Mediterranean, with the military base Tartur, installed
there, the only navy that it has outside its territory. It is, therefore, a very broad
geopolitical comparison of various hues existing in the region.
It should be noted that Syria has a powerful army, equipped with supplied weapons
mainly by Russia and Iran. Syria has aircraft operated by remote control, supplied by
Iran. Syria also has two powerful allies, Russia and China in Council UN Security.
Taking into account the catastrophic results of the NATO intervention in Libya, Russia
and China decided to harden their positions on the Board of the UN Security and hinder
the attempts of the United States and other Western allies to repeat in Syria the same
strategy adopted in Libya.
There is no doubt that only it will be possible to stop the wave of refugees and terrorism
in Europe with the annihilation of the Islamic State, the reconstruction of countries
affected by conflict such as Syria, Iraq and Libya, the establishment of an independent
Kurdish nation, and the end of Islamophobia in Western countries. These are the
conditions for the conclusion of peace in the region. The military defeat of the Islamic
state would not be enough to stop the wave of refugees and terrorism in Europe. The
unfortunate is no UN initiatives to build this solution as the conflict is spreading
throughout the Middle East.
* Fernando Alcoforado, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor of Territorial
Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, a university professor and
consultant in strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is
the author of Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova
(Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São
Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado.

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Universidade de Barcelona, http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e
Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX
e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of
the Economic and Social Development-The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Muller
Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe
Planetária (P&A Gráfica e Editora, Salvador, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e
combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011),
Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012) and
Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV,
Curitiba, 2015).