Brazilian government under Bolsonaro's direction would escalate the confrontation between left and right extremists, just as it would be with a Lula government or its candidate supported by him. The victory of Bolsonaro or Lula or his replacement may lead the Country to political and social upheaval. History has proven that, from the confrontation between the forces of left and right, the implantation of dictatorships, respectively, of left or right, can result. The only scenario that would prevent the triggering of violence between left and right with the consequent implementation of dictatorships would occur if the Brazilian people were to vote in the elections next October a candidate for President of the Republic who had the capacity to bring together the Brazilian nation around a common project of political, economic and social development that should result from a broad debate in an exclusive National Constituent Assembly that the future president of the Republic would call after his election.

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A BOLSONARO GOVERNMENT IS A THREAT TO POLITICAL STABILITY
AND SOCIAL PEACE OF BRAZIL
Fernando Alcoforado *
In an interview with Globo News, economist Paulo Guedes, who works as an economic
mentor to Jair Bolsonaro, said he intends to sell all of the public assets in order to
resolve the internal public debt issue. The privatization of public equity in Brazil, such
as Petrobras, Eletrobras, Banco do Brasil, Caixa Econômica Federal, etc., would not be
enough to recover domestic public debt (R$ 3.78 trillion) because it has a lower total
market value, in addition to represent a true attack on the country's future insofar as it
would weaken the Brazilian state's ability to organize the country's economic system. In
addition, privatization would represent the denationalization of the Brazilian economy
on a scale never seen in the history of Brazil because foreign capital would take
possession of the privatized state enterprises. A future Bolsonaro government would
thus mean a crime against homeland never practiced in the whole history of Brazil.
Another initiative of a future Bolsonaro government would mean an attack on human
rights because the candidate himself stated in Araçatuba in the interior of São Paulo on
23/8 that he would not pass on Union resources to the movements and human rights
organizations of the Country, which, as he classified, are a "disservice to our Brazil".
Jair Bolsonaro said absurdly that his decision is part of the strategies to reduce crime in
the Country (!!!). On a sound car, the PSL candidate also said that in his possible term
there will be no "human rights politicking", stating that "this banditry will die because
he will not send resources from the Union to them," he added.
It is unacceptable that Brazil should be governed by a President of the Republic whose
objective is to lead, unpatriotically, to the dismantling of the public heritage of the
Country with its denationalization and which disdains human rights organizations that
fight against attacks imposed on human beings. In addition to the neoliberal
privatization program of the Bolsonaro government, we would also have the human
rights violation that would, in practice, mean a major political regression. Bolsonaro's
government program with these characteristics would further divide Brazil's population
because it would lead the Country to the confrontation among government and civil
society that would not accept such a regression. In essence, a Bolsonaro government
would escalate political and social conflicts that need to be avoided at all costs because
they would threaten political stability and social peace in Brazil.
Instead of privatizing and denationalizing all public assets to solve the problem of
internal public debt, the federal government should renegotiate with national and
foreign banks (creditors of 55% of public debt), investment funds (creditors of 21% of
public debt), pension funds (creditors of 16% of public debt) and non-financial
corporations (creditors of 8% of public debt) reducing the expenses with payment of
debt service by lengthening the term of payment of interest and debt amortizations of
public debt. Without this solution, there will be a bankruptcy of the Brazilian economic
system with the bankruptcy of banks and the confiscation of the savings of individuals.
Besides not presenting a viable solution to the issue of internal public debt, the
candidate Bolsonaro proposes nothing to solve the problem of mass unemployment that
tends to lead the country to an unprecedented social upheaval. There is a lack of work
today for 27.636 million Brazilians by the Quarterly National Household Sample
Survey, compiled by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The

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solution of unemployment in Brazil depends on the reactivation of the Brazilian
economy, which depends to a great extent on the renegotiation with the creditors,
aiming at lengthening the payment period of the public debt burden for the federal
government to have the necessary resources for public investments, especially
infrastructure and then immediately adopt the measures described below:
1) Elaboration of a program of works on economic infrastructure (energy, transport
and communications) and social infrastructure (education, health, housing, basic
sanitation and environment) that requires resources of around R$ 2.5 trillion.
2) Public / private partnership in the execution of economic and social infrastructure
works.
3) Elaboration of an industrial development program that replaces imports and is
aimed at exports to reactivate the Brazilian economy.
4) Raising public savings by increasing public revenues and reducing government
costs so that it has the resources to invest in economic and social infrastructure.
5) Increase of the public collection with the taxation of the great fortunes, the
dividends of individuals and the banks.
6) Reduction of government costs with the elimination of superfluous expenses in all
the powers of the Republic and the reduction of public agencies and commissioned
personnel.
7) Drastic reduction of bank interest rates to encourage private investment in
economic and social infrastructure works, industry and the economy in general.
It should be noted that a Brazilian government under Bolsonaro's direction would
escalate the confrontation between left and right extremists, just as it would be with a
Lula government or its candidate supported by him. The victory of Bolsonaro or Lula or
his replacement may lead the Country to political and social upheaval. History has
proven that, from the confrontation between the forces of left and right, the implantation
of dictatorships, respectively, of left or right, can result. To illustrate, the confrontation
between left and right forces in tsarist Russia in 1917, China in 1949 and in Cuba in
1959 resulted in the establishment of dictatorships. The confrontation between left and
right forces in Italy and Germany, after World War I, resulted respectively in the fascist
and Nazi dictatorships, in Spain in 1936 resulted in the Franco dictatorship and in Chile
in 1973 resulted in the dictatorship of Pinochet. In Brazil, after the so-called Communist
Intent in 1935, Getulio Vargas gave a self-coup in 1937 with the establishment of the
New State dictatorship, and the João Goulart government was overthrown in 1964,
resulting in a 21-year military dictatorship.
The only scenario that would prevent the triggering of violence between left and right
with the consequent implementation of dictatorships would occur if the Brazilian people
were to vote in the elections next October a candidate for President of the Republic who
had the capacity to bring together the Brazilian nation around a common project of
political, economic and social development that should result from a broad debate in an
exclusive National Constituent Assembly that the future president of the Republic
would call after his election. The National Constituent Assembly would serve not only
to deliberate on the economic, political and social future of Brazil but, above all, to
celebrate a social pact and thereby to make political stability and social peace overlap
with the social conflict that would result if this path isn´t adopted.
* Fernando Alcoforado, 78, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor in
Territorial Planning and Regional Development by the University of Barcelona, university professor and

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consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy
systems, is the author of 13 books addressing issues such as Globalization and Development, Brazilian
Economy, Global Warming and Climate Change, The Factors that Condition Economic and Social
Development, Energy in the world and The Great Scientific, Economic, and Social Revolutions that
Changed the World.