2. WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 7316642300
Italian GDP Beats Expectations In First
Major Q2 Release From The Euro-Zone
US Dollar Looking to Fed-speak for QE
Reduction Clues
US Dollar Looking to Comments from Chicago Fed’s
Evans for Direction
Japanese Yen Sold as Nikkei Rallies on Pension Fund’s
Portfolio Shuffle
Aussie Dollar Rallies as RBA Offers No Clear Signal on
Future Rate Cuts
A relatively quiet economic calendar in European trading hours
shifts the spotlight to the US docket, where the focus will be on
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans. The vocally dovish
policymaker is a voting member of the rate-setting FOMC
committee this year. A prepared speech is not scheduled; rather,
Evans will be answering reporters’ questions, who will no doubt grill
him on the likelihood of a reduction in the Fed’s monthly asset
purchases at the September policy meeting. If Evans is perceived to
be in favor of “tapering” the size of the QE effort, this is likely to
broadly boost the US Dollar, and vice versa.
The Japanese Yen underperformed in overnight trade, falling as
much as 0.4 percent on average against its leading counterparts.
The move tracked an advance in the Nikkei 225 benchmark stock
index, suggesting a sentiment-driven unwinding of carry trades
funded in terms of the perennially low-yielding currency was the
catalyst behind the move. The news-wires chalked up the Nikkei
rally to a Reuters report suggesting Japan’s civil servants’ pension
fund is weighing investing more of its capital in shares versus
domestic bonds.
The Australian Dollar rallied as expected after the RBA delivered a
widely expected 25bps interest rate cut without offering explicit
guidance pointing to continued easing at upcoming meetings. The
tone of the policy statement turned nominally less dovish, with the
punch-line proclaiming policymakers will “continue to assess the
outlook and adjust policy as needed,” which stands in contrast to
last month’s assertion that the “the inflation outlook… may provide
some scope for further easing.” Going forward, this is likely to make
for a data-sensitive environment, putting the spotlight on July’s
Employment data. Chinese Exports and CPI releases may likewise
prove important considering the Aussie’s sensitivity to growth trends
in the East Asian powerhouse.
TRADING TIPS
SELL EURUSD BELOW
1.3260 TGT 1.3240/1.3210
SL 1.3290
BUY USDJPY ABOVE 98.30
TGT 98.50/98.80 SL 98.00
BUY GBPUSD ABOVE
1.5380 TGT 1.5400/1.5430
SL 1.5350
HEADLINES
7. HOURLY USD INDEX CHART
ANALYSIS
USD INDEX LOOKS UPWARD
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
MACD =>.0001(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>44(BULLISH SIGNAL)
8. Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes
Sun
Aug 4
23:30
AiG Performance of
Services Index
Medium 39.4 41.5
Mon
Aug 5
00:30
AUD TD Securities
Inflation (YoY) (JUL)
Medium 2.7% 2.4%
00:30
AUD TD Securities
Inflation (MoM) (JUL)
Low 0.5% 0.0%
01:00
NZD ANZ Commodity
Price (JUL)
Low 0.6% -3.7%
01:30
AUD Retail Sales s.a.
(MoM) (JUN)
Medium 0.0% 0.4% 0.2%
01:30
AUD Retail Sales Ex
Inflation(QoQ) (2Q)
Low 0.0% -0.1% 2.0%
01:45
CNY HSBC/Markit
Services PMI (JUL)
Medium 51.3 51.3
06:00
CHF UBS Real Estate
Bubble Index (2Q)
Medium 1.20 1.17
07:45
EUR Italian Purchasing
Manager Index
Services (JUL)
Low 48.7 46.5 45.8
07:50
EUR French
Purchasing Manager
Index Services (JUL F)
Low 48.6 48.3 48.3
07:55
EUR German
Purchasing Manager
Index Services (JUL F)
Medium 51.3 52.5 52.5
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Purchasing Manager
Index Composite (JUL
F)
Medium 50.5 50.4 50.4
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Purchasing Manager
Index Services (JUL F)
Medium 49.8 49.6 49.6
08:30
EUR Euro-Zone Sentix
Investor Confidence
(AUG)
Medium -4.9 -10.0 -12.6
08:30
GBP Purchasing
Manager Index
Services (JUL)
Medium 60.2 57.4 56.9
08:30
GBP Official Reserves
(Changes) (JUL)
Low $1672M -$1871M
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Retail
Sales (YoY) (JUN)
Medium -0.9% -1.3% 0.3%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Retail
Sales (MoM) (JUN)
Low -0.5% -0.7% 1.1%
14:00
USD ISM Non-
Manufacturing
Composite (JUL)
Medium 56.0 53.1 52.2
ECONOMIC CALLENDER
9. 15:45
USD Fed's Fisher
Speaks on the
Economy in Oregon
Low
21:00
USD EIA Gasoline and
Diesel Fuel Update
Low
22:00
NZD ANZ Truckometer
Heavy (MoM) (JUL)
Low 9.6% -7.8%
23:01
GBP BRC Sales Like-
For-Like (YoY) (JUL)
Low 2.2% 2.0% 1.4%
Tue
Aug 6
01:30
AUD Trade Balance
(Australian dollar)
(JUN)
Medium 602M 804M 507M
01:30
AUD ANZ Job
Advertisements (MoM)
(JUL)
Low -1.1% -1.6%
01:30
AUD House Price Index
(QoQ) (2Q)
Low 2.4% 1.0% 0.8%
01:30
AUD House Price Index
(YoY) (2Q)
Low 5.1% 3.0% 3.3%
04:30
LIVE
AUD Reserve Bank of
Australia Rate Decision
(AUG 6)
High 2.50% 2.50% 2.75%
05:00
JPY Coincident Index
(JUN P)
Medium 105.2 105.1 106.0
05:00
JPY Leading Index
(JUN P)
Medium 107.0 107.3 110.7
07:00
GBP Halifax House
Price (3MoY) (JUL)
Low 4.6% 4.3% 3.7%
07:00
GBP Halifax Plc House
Prices s.a. (MoM) (JUL)
Low 0.9% 0.5% 0.7%
08:02
GBP New Car
Registrations (YoY)
(JUL)
Low 12.7% 13.4%
08:30
GBP Industrial
Production (YoY) (JUN)
Medium 1.2% 0.8% -2.3%
08:30
GBP Manufacturing
Production (YoY) (JUN)
Medium 2.0% 1.0% -2.9%
08:30
GBP Industrial
Production (MoM)
(JUN)
Low 1.1% 0.7% 0.0%
08:30
GBP Manufacturing
Production (MoM)
(JUN)
Low 1.9% 1.0% -0.7%
09:00
LIVE
EUR Italian Gross
Domestic Product s.a.
and w.d.a. (YoY) (2Q P)
Medium -2.0% -2.2% -2.4%
09:00
LIVE
EUR Italian Gross
Domestic Product s.a.
and w.d.a. (QoQ) (2Q
P)
Low -0.2% -0.4% -0.6%
10:00
EUR German Factory
Orders n.s.a. (YoY)
(JUN)
Medium 4.3% 0.3% -2.0%
10:00
EUR German Factory
Orders s.a. (MoM)
(JUN)
Low 3.8% 1.0% -0.5%
12:30
USD Trade Balance
(JUN)
Medium -$43.5B -$45.0B
12:30
CAD International
Merchandise Trade
(Canadian dollar) (JUN)
Low -0.51B -0.30B
10. 14:00
GBP NIESR Gross
Domestic Product
Estimate (JUL)
High 0.6%
14:00
USD IBD/TIPP
Economic Optimism
(AUG)
Low 47.5 47.1
14:00
USD JOLTs Job
Openings (JUN)
Low 3895 3828
17:00
USD Fed's Evans
speaks to reporters in
Chicago
Low
22:45
NZD Unemployment
Rate (2Q)
High 6.3% 6.2%
22:45
NZD Employment
Change (YoY) (2Q)
Medium 0.7% 0.3%
22:45
NZD Average Hourly
Earnings (QoQ) (2Q)
Low 0.6% 1.0%
22:45
NZD Employment
Change (QoQ) (2Q)
Low 0.3% 1.7%
22:45
NZD Private Wages inc
Overtime (QoQ) (2Q)
Low 0.5% 0.3%
22:45
NZD Participation Rate
(QoQ) (2Q)
Low 67.9% 67.8%
22:45
NZD Private Wages ex
Overtime (QoQ) (2Q)
Low 0.5% 0.4%
23:30
AUD AiG Performance
of Construction Index
(JUL)
Medium 39.5
23:50
JPY Official Reserve
Assets (JUL)
Low $1238.7B
Wed
Aug 7
01:30
AUD Home Loans
(JUN)
Medium 2.0% 1.8%
01:30
AUD Value of Loans
(MoM) (JUN)
Medium 2.3%
01:30
AUD Investment
Lending (JUN)
Low 1.5%
05:45
CHF SECO Consumer
Confidence (JUL)
Medium -1 -5
07:00
CHF Foreign Currency
Reserves (JUL)
Low 431.0B 434.8B
07:15
CHF CPI - EU
Harmonised (YoY)
(JUL)
Medium 0.2%
07:15
CHF Consumer Price
Index (YoY) (JUL)
Medium -0.1% -0.1%
07:15
CHF CPI - EU
Harmonised (MoM)
(JUL)
Low 0.2%
07:15
CHF Consumer Price
Index (MoM) (JUL)
Low -0.4% 0.1%
08:30
GBP Lloyds
Employment
Confidence (JUL)
Low -33
09:30
LIVE
GBP Bank of England
Inflation Report
High
11. 10:00
EUR German Industrial
Production n.s.a. and
w.d.a. (YoY) (JUN)
Medium -0.3% -1.0%
10:00
EUR German Industrial
Production s.a. (MoM)
(JUN)
Low 0.3% -1.0%
11:00
USD MBA Mortgage
Applications (AUG 2)
Low -3.7%
12:30
CAD Building Permits
(MoM) (JUN)
Medium -1.2% 4.5%
14:00
CAD Ivey Purchasing
Managers Index s.a.
(JUL)
Medium 56.0 55.3
14:30
USD DOE Cushing OK
Crude Inventory (AUG
2)
Low -1904K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Crude
Oil Inventories (AUG 2)
Low 431K
14:30
USD DOE U.S.
Distillate Inventory
(AUG 2)
Low -466K
14:30
USD DOE U.S.
Gasoline Inventories
(AUG 2)
Low 770K
16:30
USD Fed's Plosser
Speaks on Economy in
Washington
Low
17:40
USD Fed's Pianalto
Speaks on Monetary
Policy in Cleveland
Low
19:00
USD Consumer Credit
(JUN)
Medium $15.000B $19.615B
23:50
JPY Bank Lending incl
Trusts (YoY) (JUL)
Medium 1.9% 1.9%
23:50
JPY Japan Buying
Foreign Bonds (Yen)
(AUG 2)
Medium ¥233.2B
23:50
JPY Japan Buying
Foreign Stocks (Yen)
(AUG 2)
Medium -¥154.9B
23:50
JPY Trade Balance -
BOP Basis (Yen) (JUN)
Medium -¥128.7B -¥906.7B
23:50
JPY Adjusted Current
Account Total (Yen)
(JUN)
Low ¥727.3B ¥623.3B
23:50
JPY Bank Lending
Banks ex-Trust (JUL)
Low 2.2%
23:50
JPY BoP Current
Account Balance (YoY)
(JUN)
Low -3.5% 58.1%
23:50
JPY Current Account
Total (Yen) (JUN)
Low ¥396.5B ¥540.7B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying
Japan Bonds (Yen)
(AUG 2)
Low -¥430.3B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying
Japan Stocks (Yen)
(AUG 2)
Low -¥61.8B
23:50
JPY Housing Loans
(YoY) (2Q)
Low 3.2%
Thu
Aug 8
JPY Bank of Japan
Monetary Policy
Statement
High
12. JPY Bank of Japan
Rate Decision (AUG 8)
High
CNY Trade Balance
(JUL)
Medium $25.90B $27.12B
JPY BOJ 2014
Monetary Base Target
(AUG 8)
Medium ¥270T
USD MBA Mortgage
Foreclosures (2Q)
Low 3.6%
USD Mortgage
Delinquencies (2Q)
Low 7.3%
CNY Exports (YoY)
(JUL)
Low 1.5% -3.1%
CNY Imports (YoY)
(JUL)
Low 1.0% -0.7%
00:00
NZD QV House Prices
(YoY) (JUL)
Low 7.6%
01:30
AUD Employment
Change (JUL)
High 6.0K 10.3K
01:30
AUD Unemployment
Rate (JUL)
High 5.8% 5.7%
01:30
AUD Full Time
Employment Change
(JUL)
Medium -4.4K
01:30
AUD Part Time
Employment Change
(JUL)
Low 14.8K
01:30
AUD Participation Rate
(JUL)
Low 65.3% 65.3%
02:00
JPY Tokyo Avg Office
Vacancies (JUL)
Low 8.46
04:30
JPY Bankruptcies
(YoY) (JUL)
Medium -8.0%
05:00
JPY Eco Watchers
Survey: Outlook (JUL)
Medium 54.1 53.6
05:00
JPY Eco Watchers
Survey: Current (JUL)
Low 53.5 53
05:45
CHF Unemployment
Rate (JUL)
Medium 2.9% 2.9%
05:45
CHF Unemployment
Rate s.a. (JUL)
Medium 3.2% 3.2%
06:00
EUR German Trade
Balance (euros) (JUN)
Medium 15.0B 13.1B
06:00
EUR German Current
Account (euros) (JUN)
Low 17.0B 11.2B
06:00
EUR German Exports
s.a. (MoM) (JUN)
Low 1.0% -2.4%
06:00
EUR German Imports
s.a. (MoM) (JUN)
Low 0.0% 1.7%
06:30
AUD Foreign Reserves
(Australian dollar) (JUL)
Low A$51.9B
13. 08:00
EUR ECB Publishes
Monthly Report
High
12:30
CAD New Housing
Price Index (YoY)
(JUN)
Medium 1.8%
12:30
USD Initial Jobless
Claims (AUG 3)
Medium 335K 326K
12:30
CAD New Housing
Price Index (MoM)
(JUN)
Low 0.1%
12:30
USD Continuing Claims
(JUL 27)
Low 2951K
14:30
USD EIA Natural Gas
Storage Change (AUG
2)
Low 59
22:45
NZD NZ Card Spending
(MoM) (JUL)
Medium 1.2%
22:45
NZD Card Spending -
Retail (MoM) (JUL)
Low 0.4% 1.1%
23:50
JPY Tertiary Industry
Index (MoM) (JUN)
Medium -0.4% 1.2%
23:50
JPY Japan Money
Stock M2+CD (YoY)
(JUL)
Low 3.8% 3.8%
23:50
JPY Japan Money
Stock M3 (YoY) (JUL)
Low 3.1% 3.0%
Fri
Aug 9
01:30
CNY Consumer Price
Index (YoY) (JUL)
High 2.8% 2.7%
01:30
CNY Producer Price
Index (YoY) (JUL)
Medium -2.1% -2.7%
05:00
JPY Bank of Japan's
Monthly Economic
Report for August
Medium
05:00
JPY Consumer
Confidence Index (JUL)
Medium 45.0 44.3
05:30
CNY Fixed Assets Ex
Rural YTD (YoY) (JUL)
Medium 20.0% 20.1%
05:30
CNY Industrial
Production YTD (YoY)
(JUL)
Medium 9.3%
05:30
CNY Industrial
Production (YoY) (JUL)
Medium 8.8% 8.9%
05:30
CNY Retail Sales YTD
(YoY) (JUL)
Medium 12.7%
05:30
CNY Retail Sales (YoY)
(JUL)
Medium 13.4% 13.3%
08:30
GBP Total Trade
Balance (Pounds)
(JUN)
Medium -£2350 -£2435
08:30
GBP Construction
Output s.a. (MoM)
(JUN)
Low 0.0%
08:30
GBP Construction
Output s.a. (YoY) (JUN)
Low -4.8%
08:30
GBP Trade Balance
Non EU (Pounds)
(JUN)
Low -£4093
14. 08:30
GBP Visible Trade
Balance (Pounds)
(JUN)
Low -£8500 -£8491
12:15
CAD Housing Starts
(JUL)
Medium 191.0K 199.6K
12:30
CAD Net Change in
Employment (JUL)
High 6.0K -0.4K
12:30
CAD Unemployment
Rate (JUL)
High 7.1% 7.1%
12:30
CAD Full Time
Employment Change
(JUL)
Medium -32.4
12:30
CAD Part Time
Employment Change
(JUL)
Low 32.2
12:30
CAD Participation Rate
(JUL)
Low 66.7
14:00
USD Wholesale
Inventories (JUN)
Medium 0.4% -0.5%
14:00
USD Wholesale Trade
Sales (MoM) (JUN)
Low 0.7% 1.6%
15. www.epicresearch.co + 91 7316642300
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