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Daily i-forex-report-26-aug-2013


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Daily i-forex-report-26-aug-2013

  1. 1. DAILY IFOREX REPORT 26th AUG 2013
  2. 2.  USD Correction Offers Long Opportunity- Looking To Buy Dips  Why Can’t the Dollar Hold its Gains? Here are Two Factors The US Dollar rallied sharply after holding key lows through this week’s trading, but today has the Greenback falling sharply versus the Euro, Swiss Franc, and Australian Dollar. What is getting in the way of a more sustained Dollar bounce? We’re looking at two factors in particular—forex volatility and positioning. Lack of Volatility Getting in the Way of Dollar Strength A strong correlation between the USDOLLAR and volatility suggests the next big Dollar rally will need to come on a bigger breakout in forex market volatility. There’s another key factor keeping us from calling for a much larger USD rally, and it’s the fact that too many people are making the same trade. Too Many Traders Calling for the Same Trade – Forex Positioning Needs to Shift Yesterday we highlighted the fact that there was risk of a major EURUSD reversal and broader Dollar recovery, but that was contingent on a similarly significant pullback in forex trader positions. What does that mean exactly? Our FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index data uses real trader data to tell us how many people are long or short a specific currency pair, and this information drives our sentiment-based trading strategies. It’s usually pretty simple: if everyone’s buying, we typically look to sell; if everyone’s selling, we typically look to buy. Yet the trading crowd was recently its most short EURUSD on record—a clear sign of a potential sentiment and price extreme. It’s at these major turning points that we might actually look to trade in the same direction. Or in other words, when traders are extremely short we might look to sell as well. TRADING TIPS  SELL EURUSD BELOW 1.3380 TGT 1.3360/1.3330 SL 1.3410  BUY USDJPY ABOVE 98.80 TGT 99.00/99.30 SL 98.50  SELL GBPUSD BELOW 1.5540 TGT 1.5520/1.5490 SL 1.5570 HEADLINES
  8. 8. Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes Sun Aug 4 23:30 AiG Performance of Services Index Medium 39.4 41.5 Mon Aug 5 00:30 AUD TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (JUL) Medium 2.7% 2.4% 00:30 AUD TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.5% 0.0% 01:00 NZD ANZ Commodity Price (JUL) Low 0.6% -3.7% 01:30 AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (JUN) Medium 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 01:30 AUD Retail Sales Ex Inflation(QoQ) (2Q) Low 0.0% -0.1% 2.0% 01:45 CNY HSBC/Markit Services PMI (JUL) Medium 51.3 51.3 06:00 CHF UBS Real Estate Bubble Index (2Q) Medium 1.20 1.17 07:45 EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUL) Low 48.7 46.5 45.8 07:50 EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUL F) Low 48.6 48.3 48.3 07:55 EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUL F) Medium 51.3 52.5 52.5 08:00 EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (JUL F) Medium 50.5 50.4 50.4 08:00 EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUL F) Medium 49.8 49.6 49.6 08:30 EUR Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (AUG) Medium -4.9 -10.0 -12.6 08:30 GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUL) Medium 60.2 57.4 56.9 08:30 GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (JUL) Low $1672M -$1871M 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (JUN) Medium -0.9% -1.3% 0.3% 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (JUN) Low -0.5% -0.7% 1.1% 14:00 USD ISM Non- Manufacturing Composite (JUL) Medium 56.0 53.1 52.2 15:45 USD Fed's Fisher Speaks on the Economy in Oregon Low 21:00 USD EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update Low ECONOMIC CALLENDER
  9. 9. 22:00 NZD ANZ Truckometer Heavy (MoM) (JUL) Low 9.6% -7.8% 23:01 GBP BRC Sales Like- For-Like (YoY) (JUL) Low 2.2% 2.0% 1.4% Tue Aug 6 01:30 AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (JUN) Medium 602M 804M 507M 01:30 AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (JUL) Low -1.1% -1.6% 01:30 AUD House Price Index (QoQ) (2Q) Low 2.4% 1.0% 0.8% 01:30 AUD House Price Index (YoY) (2Q) Low 5.1% 3.0% 3.3% 04:30 LIVE AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (AUG 6) High 2.50% 2.50% 2.75% 05:00 JPY Coincident Index (JUN P) Medium 105.2 105.1 106.0 05:00 JPY Leading Index (JUN P) Medium 107.0 107.3 110.7 07:00 GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (JUL) Low 4.6% 4.3% 3.7% 07:00 GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.9% 0.5% 0.7% 08:02 GBP New Car Registrations (YoY) (JUL) Low 12.7% 13.4% 08:30 GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN) Medium 1.2% 0.8% -2.3% 08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (JUN) Medium 2.0% 1.0% -2.9% 08:30 GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (JUN) Low 1.1% 0.7% 0.0% 08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (JUN) Low 1.9% 1.0% -0.7% 09:00 LIVE EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (2Q P) Medium -2.0% -2.2% -2.4% 09:00 LIVE EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (QoQ) (2Q P) Low -0.2% -0.4% -0.6% 10:00 EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (JUN) Medium 4.3% 0.3% -2.0% 10:00 EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (JUN) Low 3.8% 1.0% -0.5% 12:30 USD Trade Balance (JUN) Medium -$43.5B -$45.0B 12:30 CAD International Merchandise Trade (Canadian dollar) (JUN) Low -0.51B -0.30B 14:00 GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (JUL) High 0.6% 14:00 USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (AUG) Low 47.5 47.1
  10. 10. 14:00 USD JOLTs Job Openings (JUN) Low 3895 3828 17:00 USD Fed's Evans speaks to reporters in Chicago Low 22:45 NZD Unemployment Rate (2Q) High 6.3% 6.2% 22:45 NZD Employment Change (YoY) (2Q) Medium 0.7% 0.3% 22:45 NZD Average Hourly Earnings (QoQ) (2Q) Low 0.6% 1.0% 22:45 NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (2Q) Low 0.3% 1.7% 22:45 NZD Private Wages inc Overtime (QoQ) (2Q) Low 0.5% 0.3% 22:45 NZD Participation Rate (QoQ) (2Q) Low 67.9% 67.8% 22:45 NZD Private Wages ex Overtime (QoQ) (2Q) Low 0.5% 0.4% 23:30 AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (JUL) Medium 39.5 23:50 JPY Official Reserve Assets (JUL) Low $1238.7B Wed Aug 7 01:30 AUD Home Loans (JUN) Medium 2.0% 1.8% 01:30 AUD Value of Loans (MoM) (JUN) Medium 2.3% 01:30 AUD Investment Lending (JUN) Low 1.5% 05:45 CHF SECO Consumer Confidence (JUL) Medium -1 -5 07:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (JUL) Low 431.0B 434.8B 07:15 CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (JUL) Medium 0.2% 07:15 CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) Medium -0.1% -0.1% 07:15 CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.2% 07:15 CHF Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JUL) Low -0.4% 0.1% 08:30 GBP Lloyds Employment Confidence (JUL) Low -33 09:30 LIVE GBP Bank of England Inflation Report High 10:00 EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (JUN) Medium -0.3% -1.0% 10:00 EUR German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (JUN) Low 0.3% -1.0%
  11. 11. 11:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (AUG 2) Low -3.7% 12:30 CAD Building Permits (MoM) (JUN) Medium -1.2% 4.5% 14:00 CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a. (JUL) Medium 56.0 55.3 14:30 USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (AUG 2) Low -1904K 14:30 USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (AUG 2) Low 431K 14:30 USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (AUG 2) Low -466K 14:30 USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (AUG 2) Low 770K 16:30 USD Fed's Plosser Speaks on Economy in Washington Low 17:40 USD Fed's Pianalto Speaks on Monetary Policy in Cleveland Low 19:00 USD Consumer Credit (JUN) Medium $15.000B $19.615B 23:50 JPY Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (JUL) Medium 1.9% 1.9% 23:50 JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (AUG 2) Medium ¥233.2B 23:50 JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (AUG 2) Medium -¥154.9B 23:50 JPY Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Yen) (JUN) Medium -¥128.7B -¥906.7B 23:50 JPY Adjusted Current Account Total (Yen) (JUN) Low ¥727.3B ¥623.3B 23:50 JPY Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (JUL) Low 2.2% 23:50 JPY BoP Current Account Balance (YoY) (JUN) Low -3.5% 58.1% 23:50 JPY Current Account Total (Yen) (JUN) Low ¥396.5B ¥540.7B 23:50 JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (AUG 2) Low -¥430.3B 23:50 JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (AUG 2) Low -¥61.8B 23:50 JPY Housing Loans (YoY) (2Q) Low 3.2% Thu Aug 8 JPY Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement High JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (AUG 8) High CNY Trade Balance (JUL) Medium $25.90B $27.12B
  12. 12. JPY BOJ 2014 Monetary Base Target (AUG 8) Medium ¥270T USD MBA Mortgage Foreclosures (2Q) Low 3.6% USD Mortgage Delinquencies (2Q) Low 7.3% CNY Exports (YoY) (JUL) Low 1.5% -3.1% CNY Imports (YoY) (JUL) Low 1.0% -0.7% 00:00 NZD QV House Prices (YoY) (JUL) Low 7.6% 01:30 AUD Employment Change (JUL) High 6.0K 10.3K 01:30 AUD Unemployment Rate (JUL) High 5.8% 5.7% 01:30 AUD Full Time Employment Change (JUL) Medium -4.4K 01:30 AUD Part Time Employment Change (JUL) Low 14.8K 01:30 AUD Participation Rate (JUL) Low 65.3% 65.3% 02:00 JPY Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies (JUL) Low 8.46 04:30 JPY Bankruptcies (YoY) (JUL) Medium -8.0% 05:00 JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (JUL) Medium 54.1 53.6 05:00 JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current (JUL) Low 53.5 53 05:45 CHF Unemployment Rate (JUL) Medium 2.9% 2.9% 05:45 CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. (JUL) Medium 3.2% 3.2% 06:00 EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (JUN) Medium 15.0B 13.1B 06:00 EUR German Current Account (euros) (JUN) Low 17.0B 11.2B 06:00 EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (JUN) Low 1.0% -2.4% 06:00 EUR German Imports s.a. (MoM) (JUN) Low 0.0% 1.7% 06:30 AUD Foreign Reserves (Australian dollar) (JUL) Low A$51.9B 08:00 EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report High 12:30 CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY) (JUN) Medium 1.8%
  13. 13. 12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 3) Medium 335K 326K 12:30 CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) (JUN) Low 0.1% 12:30 USD Continuing Claims (JUL 27) Low 2951K 14:30 USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (AUG 2) Low 59 22:45 NZD NZ Card Spending (MoM) (JUL) Medium 1.2% 22:45 NZD Card Spending - Retail (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.4% 1.1% 23:50 JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (JUN) Medium -0.4% 1.2% 23:50 JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD (YoY) (JUL) Low 3.8% 3.8% 23:50 JPY Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (JUL) Low 3.1% 3.0% Fri Aug 9 01:30 CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) High 2.8% 2.7% 01:30 CNY Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) Medium -2.1% -2.7% 05:00 JPY Bank of Japan's Monthly Economic Report for August Medium 05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Index (JUL) Medium 45.0 44.3 05:30 CNY Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD (YoY) (JUL) Medium 20.0% 20.1% 05:30 CNY Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (JUL) Medium 9.3% 05:30 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL) Medium 8.8% 8.9% 05:30 CNY Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (JUL) Medium 12.7% 05:30 CNY Retail Sales (YoY) (JUL) Medium 13.4% 13.3% 08:30 GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) (JUN) Medium -£2350 -£2435 08:30 GBP Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (JUN) Low 0.0% 08:30 GBP Construction Output s.a. (YoY) (JUN) Low -4.8% 08:30 GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds) (JUN) Low -£4093 08:30 GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (JUN) Low -£8500 -£8491 12:15 CAD Housing Starts (JUL) Medium 191.0K 199.6K
  14. 14. 12:30 CAD Net Change in Employment (JUL) High 6.0K -0.4K 12:30 CAD Unemployment Rate (JUL) High 7.1% 7.1% 12:30 CAD Full Time Employment Change (JUL) Medium -32.4 12:30 CAD Part Time Employment Change (JUL) Low 32.2 12:30 CAD Participation Rate (JUL) Low 66.7 14:00 USD Wholesale Inventories (JUN) Medium 0.4% -0.5% 14:00 USD Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (JUN) Low 0.7% 1.6%
  15. 15. Disclaimer The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most. Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. This material is for personal information and based upon it & takes no responsibility The information given herein should be treated as only factor, while making investment decision. The report does not provide individually tailor-made investment advice. Epic research recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. Epic research shall not be responsible for any transaction conducted based on the information given in this report, which is in violation of rules and regulations of NSE and BSE. The share price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice. Analyst or any person related to epic research might be holding positions in the stocks recommended. It is understood that anyone who is browsing through the site has done so at his free will and does not read any views expressed as a recommendation for which either the site or its owners or anyone can be held responsible for . Any surfing and reading of the information is the acceptance of this disclaimer. All Rights Reserved. Investment in equity & bullion market has its own risks. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. we are not responsible for any loss incurred whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above epic research does not purport to be an invitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Our Clients (Paid Or Unpaid), Any third party or anyone else have no rights to forward or share our calls or SMS or Report or Any Information Provided by us to/with anyone which is received directly or indirectly by them. If found so then Serious Legal Actions can be taken.