h

1. GENERAL DIRECTORATE OF MILITARY COOPERATION AND PEACEKEEPING
OPERATIONS OF THE GENERAL STAFF OF THE ARMED FORCES OF UKRAINE
Briefing on the Situation in the South-East
of Ukraine
(19 – 25.05.2016)
1

2. VIOLATIONS OF MINSK AGREEMENTSVIOLATIONS OF MINSK AGREEMENTS
BY THE RUSSIAN OCUPATION FORCESBY THE RUSSIAN OCUPATION FORCES
Ceasefire violationsCeasefire violations
Russian regular forces and illegal armed groups on
the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk
regions, weapons and ammo supplies by the RF
Russian regular forces and illegal armed groups on
the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk
regions, weapons and ammo supplies by the RF
OSCE SMM activities impedimentOSCE SMM activities impediment
Withdrawal of heavy weapons violationsWithdrawal of heavy weapons violations

3. CEASEFIRE VIOLATIONSCEASEFIRE VIOLATIONS
BY THE RUSSIAN OCCUPATION FORCES IN 2016BY THE RUSSIAN OCCUPATION FORCES IN 2016
In total,In total, 58985898 ceasefire violationsceasefire violations
recorded in 2016recorded in 2016
1205 1661 1549 1483

4. USE OF HEAVY WEAPONS BY THE RUSSIANUSE OF HEAVY WEAPONS BY THE RUSSIAN
OCCUPATION FORCES IN 2016OCCUPATION FORCES IN 2016
Since the beginning ofSince the beginning of 20162016 13191319 violations of withdrawal of heavyviolations of withdrawal of heavy
weapons recordedweapons recorded

5. VIOLATIONS OF MINSK AGREEMENTSVIOLATIONS OF MINSK AGREEMENTS
BY THE RUSSIAN OCCUPATION FORCES INBY THE RUSSIAN OCCUPATION FORCES IN 20162016
OSCE SMM freedom of movement restrictionsOSCE SMM freedom of movement restrictions
Withdrawal of heavy weapons violationsWithdrawal of heavy weapons violations
11
22
3 4– February – March4 – January 4 – April
1
2

6. RUSSIAN FORCES IVO
Ukraine’s state border
3 200
10
65
90
34
IAG RF AF
34 600 6 500
475 227
870 419
585 145
208 91
RUSSIAN OCCUPATION FORCES ON THE OCCUPIED UKRRUSSIAN OCCUPATION FORCES ON THE OCCUPIED UKR
TERRITORIES AND IVO UKRAINIAN STATE BORDERTERRITORIES AND IVO UKRAINIAN STATE BORDER

7. POSSIBLE FUTURE SCENARIOSPOSSIBLE FUTURE SCENARIOS
THIRD SCENARIOTHIRD SCENARIO –– LARGE-SCALE OFFENSIVE OPERATIONSLARGE-SCALE OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS
FOURTH SCENARIOFOURTH SCENARIO –– FULL-SCALE OFFENSIVE OPERATIONSFULL-SCALE OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS
SECOND SCENARIOSECOND SCENARIO –– LAND CORRIDOR TO ANNEXED CRIMEALAND CORRIDOR TO ANNEXED CRIMEA
FIRST SCENARIOFIRST SCENARIO –– PUSHING OUT ATO FORCES BEYONDPUSHING OUT ATO FORCES BEYOND
DONETSK AND LUHANSK REGIONSDONETSK AND LUHANSK REGIONS

8. ARMED FORCES OF UKRAINE COMBAT CASUALTIES
AND CIVILIAN CASUALTIES
~ 2000
killed
5000 – 7000
injured
up to 150
killed
up to 500
injured
~ 750 missing
298killed
80children
1.783 million
Internally displaced persons
1992 8251

9. IDENTIFIED COMMAND STAFF OF THE RUSSIAN OCCUPATIONIDENTIFIED COMMAND STAFF OF THE RUSSIAN OCCUPATION
FORCES IN EASTERN UKRAINEFORCES IN EASTERN UKRAINE
Commander
3rd
dmibde 1 AC
Major General
Іgor ТIMOFEIEV
(nickname - Sokolov)
Commander
5th
dmibde 1 AC
Colonel Іgor
KAPLIY (nickname
- Kremen)
Commander
9 damireg 1 AC
Colonel Dmytro
BONDARIEV
(nickname - Kovalenko)
Commander 2 AC
Major General
Yevgenii NIKIFOROV
(nickname - Morgun)
Commander
2nd
dmibde 2 AC
Colonel Andrei
RUZINSKIY
(nickname – Niefiodov)
Commander
4th
dmibde
2 AC Colonel Piotr
BOLGAREV
Commander
7th
dmireg 2 AC
Colonel Aleksander
BUSHUIEV
(nickname - Kolosov)
Commander
11 motreg 1 AC
Lt. Colonel Roman
TITOV
Commander 2 AC
Major General
Yevgenii NIKIFOROV
(nickname - Morgun)

10. SITUATIONSITUATION IN “DLNR” AND CRIMEAIN “DLNR” AND CRIMEA
1. Continued manipulation with the Minsk agreements
compliance by the Russian Federation and “DLNR” – O.
Zakharchenko statement about the local elections
postponed for the end of 2016 – beginning of 2017 and the
denial of the possibility of international police mission
deployment.
2. Secret involvement of the Crimean criminal groups to the RF
State Duma election process in exchange for loyalty of the
Russian power structures - 18 - 19.05.2016 informal meeting
in Crimea of the RF President Assistant Mr..Surkov with
representatives of local criminals.
3. "DNR" authorities declaration of the possibilities to simplify
the access of regional entrepreneurs to markets in Russia -
19.05.2016 Director of scientific production Center for
Standardization, Metrology and Certification in DNR” Mr. I.
Podinovski announced the start of “certificates of DNR
production conformity” issueing process.

11. ATO AREA SITUATIONATO AREA SITUATION
1. Continued augmentation of forces and means of intelligence
and electronic warfare along the line of contact.
Reconnaissance activity (UAV DRG), fire weapons (mortars
and artillery), jamming (R-330 “Zhytel” and “Leyer-3”) and
electronic interception of UAVs at the tactical depth of ATO
defense forces formations.
2. The preparatory work for the UAV usage to defeat targets in
tactical and operational-tactical depth of ATO defence
forces; 1АC UAV company received 250 units of special
explosive devices to execute certain tasks.
3. UAV and EW units (1АС, 2АС) training carried out by the RF
AF specialists for the application of new attack and
reconnaissance UAV, “Арбалет-МР” small interference
complexes and multifunctional radio monitoring systems,
РП-377ЛА “Лорандит” direction finding and suppression.

12. CONCLUSIONS RESULTING FROM THE SITUATIONCONCLUSIONS RESULTING FROM THE SITUATION
WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN CONFLICTWITHIN THE CONTEXT OF RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN CONFLICT
1. RF leadership continue imposing on international community own approaches
regarding formation of the system of European security trying to renew its
influence on former soviet countries and avoid further NATO extension to the
East of the Europe.
2. RF leadership have activated international political-economical and public-
outreach activities with the countries, which didn`t join international sanctions
against Russia, in order to minimize the budget loss from the acting restrictions
of the West.
3. RF leadership far and wide provides low intensity conflict support on the East of
Ukraine with the aim of the usage of its negative consequences on political-
economical situation in Ukraine and in the interest of the international
legitimization of Crimean annexation.
4. Activation of local combat activities of 1АK and 2АK of “DNR/LNR” possibly will
be directed at the attempts to capture separate important infrastructure objects of
Donetsk and Luhansk regions (steam power plant and water-storage reservoir),
that is impossible nowadays without involvement of the regular RF AF units.

13. GENERAL DIRECTORATE OF MILITARY COOPERATION AND PEACEKEEPING
OPERATIONS OF THE GENERAL STAFF OF THE ARMED FORCES OF UKRAINE
Thank You for Your attention!
13