This keynote explores the future of risk analysis by revisiting the history of forecasting, mankind's eternal desire for quality datasets, and the strategic trends that will help us deal with risk in an increasingly connected, complex world. Learn more at https://www.competitivefutures.com and https://www.ericgarland.co

1. ERIC GARLAND
THE FUTURE OF
RISK:
COMPLEXITY,
MODELS, DATA,
AND STORIES

2. ERIC GARLAND
• My job: Managing Director, Competitive Futures
• My background: Competitive intelligence, Futures studies
• My clients: IBM, Coca-Cola, France, Monaco, US Gov’t
• My curiosity: Combining visionary foresight with management
• My weakness: Expensive bass guitars
• My goal: Continued growth in sophistication of analysis

3. FUTURE TRENDS:
More data collected
Software *asks* questions;AI
improves models
Considerably more complexity
TL;DR
IMPLICATIONS:
More sophisticated models
Privacy concerns over data
New wave of model failure
Merge qualitative and
quantitative to describe risk

4. PEOPLE INTERESTED IN
RISK ANALYSIS
• CEOs
• Financial forecasters
• Product managers
• Supply chain engineers
• Geopolitical risk analysts
• Subject matter experts
• Futurists
• Moms
• People getting a puppy
• Kids picking a college major
• Anyone who has babies
• Anyone who wants to retire

5. RISK
ASSESSMENT:
THE ETERNAL
HUMAN
CHALLENGE
WE SUCK AT

6. Let’s do some
mid-term normative
scenarios on rain and
saber-toothed tigers.

7. Same impulse, crappy data set,
crappy tools

8. RISK/OPPORTUNITY
ANALYSIS FAILURE:
TECHNOLOGY DIVISION

9. “What sir? You would make a ship that
sails against the winds and tides?
I have no time for such nonsense.”
- Napoleon Bonaparte to Robert Fulton, 1803

10. “It has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered
as a means of communications.
The device is inherently of no use to us.”
- Western Union, internal memo, 1876

11. WORLD
PEACE!

12. MILITARY
TACTICS

13. WORLD
PEACE!

14. SIGNAL
CORPS!

15. WORLD
PEACE!

16. BOMBING
RUNS!

17. NON-MILITARY
EXAMPLE OF
RISK ASSESSMENT
FAILURE THAT IS
HUMOROUS

18. WHOOPS. No ovens.

19. NON-MILITARY
EXAMPLE OF RISK
ASSESSMENT
FAILURE THAT IS
NOT HUMOROUS

20. How did we
miss this?

21. In 2003, the Japanese Nuclear Commission said this would happen
once per million years.

22. OUR CURRENT
PREDICAMENT:
Increasing complexity makes
Black Swans more likely

23. Impact-Probability Matrix
High Impact
Low Impact
High
Probability
Low
Business as
Usual
Flash in the
Pan
Strategic Shift BOOM!

24. Data-Model Risk Matrix
Lots of Data
Insufficient Data
Strong
Model
Weak
Model
Need More
Resources!
Unknown
Unknowns
Best Practices
Big Data,
(WhateverThat
Means)

25. STRATEGIC
TRENDS:
Driving the
future of risk
analysis

26. STRATEGIC TRENDS
Moore’s Law Continues
Advanced sensor arrays
Quantum computing
Massive Data™
Advanced algorithms
Virtual reality
People remain people

27. INTEL FORECAST:
MOORE’S LAW WILL
FUNCTION THROUGH 2021
AND BEYOND

28. SENSORS EVERYWHERE

29. MICROSOFT FORECAST:
FIRST QUANTUM COMPUTER BY 2026

30. MASSIVE DATA

31. A LITTLE HELP FROM OUR FRIENDS

32. MEGATREND:
PEOPLE WILL
REMAIN PEOPLE

33. Qualitative methodologies of futurists,
strategists, scenario planners will enrich models
and improve accuracy
AI will improve models, even help *ask* the
right questions
Ability to monitor workers to avoid casualties
will improve so much…it’ll be scary (call your
general counsels)
IMPLICATIONS

34. IF YOU WANT MORE

35. WWW.COMPETITIVEFUTURES.COM
WWW.ERICGARLAND.CO
@ERICGARLAND
ERIC GARLAND