The document discusses the impact of industrial revolutions on infrastructure and society. It begins with an introduction of the speaker and his background in telecommunications and energy. Then, it covers three main topics: 1. Lessons from past industrial revolutions in shaping infrastructure networks and societal changes. The industrial revolutions followed a cyclical pattern of technological disruption. 2. Current topics around reconceptualizing products, services, and infrastructure with digital technologies and platforms. This includes changes to electricity grids and mobility. 3. Imagining the smart infrastructure future across sectors like mobility, energy and cities. This future brings challenges around uncertainties that can be addressed through scenario planning and foresights.

1. NYENRODE. A REWARD FOR LIFENYENRODE. A REWARD FOR LIFE
DutchPower event
18 April 2019
Beyond automation
Beyond automation

2. NYENRODE. A REWARD FOR LIFE
Agenda
• Introduction
➢ Personal link to energy
1. Lessons from the past
➢ Industrial Revolutions
2. Current topics
➢ From hierarchies to markets
3. Imagining the future
➢ Cross sector challenges and opportunities
2
Introduction

3. NYENRODE. A REWARD FOR LIFE
Personal background
Research into urgent societal
problems
Spin-offs to the market
Industry Experience:
• Philips Telecommunications
• AT&T
• Lucent Technologies
• VP Strategy & Business Development,
Europe, Middle East & Africa
Academic affiliations – past and present:
• Economics of Infrastructures, Department Technology,
Policy & Management at TUDelft
The Internet bubble
the impact on the development path
of the telecommunication sector
Wolter Lemstra
• Strategy Centre – Nyenrode Business Universiteit
• École Politechnique Fédérale de Lausanne
• Copenhagen Center for Communications, Media and
internet Technologies, Aalborg University
• CERRE – Centre for Regulation in Europe
Introduction

4. NYENRODE. A REWARD FOR LIFE
Exposure to energy…
Ecorys for European Commission DG ENER
ECSIP for European Commission DG
Enterprise and Industry
CERRE – Centre on Regulation in Europe
4
Introduction

5. NYENRODE. A REWARD FOR LIFE
Agenda
• Introduction
➢ Personal link to energy
1. Lessons from the past
➢ Industrial Revolutions
2. Current topics
➢ From hierarchies to markets
3. Imagining the future
➢ Cross sector challenges and opportunities
5
Introduction

6. NYENRODE. A REWARD FOR LIFE
6
1 Lessons from the past

7. NYENRODE. A REWARD FOR LIFE
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THE AGE OF
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
Global digital telecommunications,
the Internet
Electricity, telephone,
highways and airways
THE AGE OF OIL, THE AUTOMOBILE
PETROCHEMICALS
AND MASS PRODUCTION
THE AGE OF STEEL
ELECTRICITY
AND HEAVY ENGINEERING
Transcontinental communications:
Steamships, railways and telegraph
THE AGE OF RAILWAYS
COAL AND THE STEAM ENGINE
Railways, penny post
and telegraph
THE “INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION”
IN ENGLAND
Canals, turnpike roads and mail
coaches
Source:
Perez (2002)
The infrastructural networks
1 Lessons from the past

8. NYENRODE. A REWARD FOR LIFE
Great Surge Model
8
Source: Perez (2002 p48)
Time
Degree
of diffusion
of the
technological
revolution
Recessiveinterval
Installation period Deployment period
Techno-economic split
Irruption of the technological revolution
Declined of old industries
Unemployment
Irruption
Frenzy
Synergy
Maturity
Financial bubble time
Intensive investment in the revolution
Decoupling of the whole system
Polarization of rich and poor
Gilded Age
Socio-political split
Last products and industries
Market saturation and
technological maturity of main industries
Disappointment vs. complacencyGolden Age
Coherent growth
with increasing externalities
Production and employment
Turning
point
Previous
Great
Surge
Next
Great
Surge
Institutional
recomposition Next
big-bang
big-bang Crash
1 Lessons from the past

9. NYENRODE. A REWARD FOR LIFE
Installation period: More efficient production
9
Transition to Digital:
Solow-paradox:
"You can see the
computer age everywhere
but in the productivity
statistics."
Source: Robert Solow, "We'd better watch out",
New York Times Book Review, July 12, 1987,
page 36.
1 Lessons from the past

10. NYENRODE. A REWARD FOR LIFE
Agenda
• Introduction
➢ Personal link to energy
1. Lessons from the past
➢ Industrial Revolutions
2. Current topics
➢ From hierarchies to markets
3. Imagining the future
➢ Cross sector challenges and opportunities
10
Introduction

11. NYENRODE. A REWARD FOR LIFE
Great Surge Model
11
Source: Perez (2002 p48)
Time
Degree
of diffusion
of the
technological
revolution
Recessiveinterval
Installation period Deployment period
Techno-economic split
Irruption of the technological revolution
Declined of old industries
Unemployment
Irruption
Frenzy
Synergy
Maturity
Financial bubble time
Intensive investment in the revolution
Decoupling of the whole system
Polarization of rich and poor
Gilded Age
Socio-political split
Last products and industries
Market saturation and
technological maturity of main industries
Disappointment vs. complacencyGolden Age
Coherent growth
with increasing externalities
Production and employment
Turning
point
Previous
Great
Surge
Next
Great
Surge
Institutional
recomposition Next
big-bang
big-bang Crash
1 Lessons from the past

12. NYENRODE. A REWARD FOR LIFE
Core input Fifth Industrial Revolution: Chips
12
Source:
http://sites.psu.edu/summer2013art003lvj5077/wp-
content/uploads/sites/3861/2013/05/Moores_Law.jpg
1 Lessons from the past
Moore’s Law

13. NYENRODE. A REWARD FOR LIFE
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Reconceptualization of product and service provision
Platforms
2 Current topics

14. NYENRODE. A REWARD FOR LIFE
Reconceptualization of infrastructures
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2 Current topics

15. NYENRODE. A REWARD FOR LIFE
Agenda
• Introduction
➢ Personal link to energy
1. Lessons from the past
➢ Industrial Revolutions
2. Current topics
➢ From hierarchies to markets
3. Imagining the future
➢ Cross sector challenges and opportunities
15
Introduction

16. NYENRODE. A REWARD FOR LIFE
Generalization: Smart Infrastructures
Smart Mobility
➢ Smart Transport
Smart Energy
➢ Smart Electricity Grids
Smart Cities
➢ Smart Mobility
• Smart Parking
➢ Smart Lighting
➢ Smart Waste Management
➢ Etc.
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IT+CT+Mobility
➢ IT+CT+ Various modes of Transport
IT+CT+Energy
➢ IT+CT+Electricity Grids
IT+CT+Cities
➢ IT+CT+Mobility
• IT+CT+Parking
➢ IT+CT+Lighting
➢ IT+CT+Waste Management
➢ Etc.
ICTs transform infrastructures
3 Imagine the future

17. NYENRODE. A REWARD FOR LIFE
Smart mobility policy
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Affects multiple policy domains in different ways
Business model innovation
Impact of digital platforms:
• Lowering transaction costs
• Network effects
Impact of greening:
• All electric cars by 2040
• Need ubiquitous charging infra
• Doubling access grid capacity
• Fuel taxes going to zero
Impact of sharing:
• Low, unless “Mobility-as-a-Service”
• Then, no need for doubling grid
capacity
3 Imagine the future

18. NYENRODE. A REWARD FOR LIFE
Realizing smart mobility
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Requires close alignment across multiple policy domains
3 Imagine the future

19. Artificial
Industry
Digital
Trade
1438 1764 1971 1997
Agriculture
2000 BC
Technologies define means to fulfill basic human needs: Mobility

20. NYENRODE. A REWARD FOR LIFE
How to deal with uncertainties: Create foresights
Foresights
Vision & Strategy
Scenarios
3 Imagine the future

21. NYENRODE. A REWARD FOR LIFE
“Imagine the Future
It is ours to shape”
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