Forest

1. Climate Change Impact and Forest
Deepak Bornare, Ph.D.
Head & Associate Professor
Department of Agricultural Engineering
MIT, Aurangabad-431010
India
“Capacity Building in the Youth Project”
618798-EPP-1-2020-1-TR-EPPKA2-CBY-ACPALA
#Montevideo,Urugauy # 06-12/May/2022

2. Overview
 Global forests and forestry
 Forests and the carbon
cycle
 Climate change and
forests:
• Impacts
• Mitigation
• Adaptation

3.  Forests comprise 4 billion ha (30% of land surface, 434 billion m3)
 89% natural (36% primary and 53% modified)
Source: FAO Global Forest Resource Assessment 2005
Global forests
Forest
Other wooded land
Other land
Water

4. World Forest Statistics:

5. 11
27
11 12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
127 Kha 49 Kha 76.2 Kha 2.29 Kha
31.3Mha 3.2 Mha 8.67 Mha 1.34 Mha
India Greece Turkey Uruguay
%
Area
Country ,Area, Loss
Forest & Loss status 2021
Source: Global Forest Watch ,2022

6. Facts
• Forests provide more than 86 million green jobs and support
the livelihoods of many more.
• An estimated 880 million people spend part of their time
collecting fuelwood or producing charcoal.
• Of the people living in extreme poverty, over 90 percent are
dependent on forests for at least part of their livelihoods.
• Globally, 1.6 billion people (nearly 25% of the world’s
population) rely on forests for their livelihoods, many of whom
are the world’s poorest.
• Forests provide US$ 75–100 billion per year in goods and
services such as clean water and healthy soils
• Forests are home to 80% of the world’s terrestrial
biodiversity.
• Approximately 2.6 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide, one-third
of the CO2 released from burning fossil fuels, is absorbed by
forests every year.

7. Global forests: recent changes
 Forest loss due to:
• Expansion of settlements, infrastructure, unsustainable logging practices
• Sources of carbon
 Forest gain due to:
• Afforestation, landscape restoration, natural forest expansion
• Sinks of carbon
Source: FAO Global Forest Resource Assessment 2005
>0.5% decrease per year >0.5% increase per year Change rate <0.5% per year
Change 2000 – 2005
 Greatest forest loss in
low-income, low-latitude
countries
 Average annual net loss:
Brazil – 3.1 million ha
Indonesia - 1.9 million ha
 Average annual net gain:
China – 4.0 million ha

8. Carbon implications of global forest cover change
 Forests: both large sources and sinks of carbon
 The global forest sector:
• Emissions from deforestation 1.6 Gt C/yr
• Equivalent to 20% of anthropogenic GHGs
 Forests affect and are affected by climate change
• Outcome determines mitigation/adaptation potential

9. How forest affect the carbon cycle
 Less than half of
human emissions
stay in atmosphere
3.2 ± 0.1 GtC/yr Airborne fraction
Atmosphere
Biosphere
6.4 ± 0.4
Fossil fuel
2.2 ± 0.4
Ocean uptake
1.6 ± 0.9
Land-use change
2.6 ± 0.1
Land uptake
(esp. forests)
Data from IPCC AR4 WG1 2007
Reduce emissions Increase sinks
 Mitigation = reduced
emissions and/or
increased sinks
 Forests/forestry
can have significant
impacts on future
atmospheric C
concentrations

10. Climate change and forests: impacts
From IPCC AR4 WG1 2007
Projections of surface temperatures (relative to 1980-1999)
Emission scenario:
B1
A2
2020 – 2029 (short term) 2090 – 2099 (long term)
Increasing
GHGs
Climate
change
Impacts on
forests
Increasing
temperatures
Feedbacks?

11. Climate change and forests: impacts (short term)
 CO2 fertilization
 Higher temperature
(inc. growth rate)
 Nitrogen mineralization
 Longer growing season
 Range expansion
 Size/severity of forest
fires, wind damage, floods
 Rate/severity/range of
native insect and disease
impacts
 Invasive species
 Feedbacks
Increased productivity Increased disturbance

12. Current
IPCC 1995, GFDL + MAPSS models
Temperate grasses
Grasslands
Deserts
Savanna
Tropical seasonal forests
Tropical moist forest
Wetland, mangrove etc
Agricultural land
Ice
Tundra
Boreal forests
2 x CO2
Restricted distributions, esp. northern hemisphere
Climate change and forests: impacts (long term)

13.  Forests and forestry cannot solve the problem of fossil C
emissions, but they can contribute to the solution
 Reduced deforestation, increased afforestation could more
than offset global carbon emissions from the transportation
sector (Stern 2006)
Forests and mitigation

14. Forests and mitigation: management options
 Maintain (or increase) forest area
• Reduce deforestation, increase afforestation
 Increase stand-level carbon density
• Partial harvest systems, reduce residue
burning, reduce regeneration delays, species
selection
 Increase landscape-level carbon density
• Lengthen rotations, inc. conservation areas,
protect against disturbance
 Increase stored C in wood products,
reduce fossil C emissions through
product substitution and bioenergy
• Longer-lived products, recycling, biofuels,
salvage

15. Forests and adaptation
 Continued warming
even with emissions
held at 2000 levels
 Impacts greatest at
higher latitudes
 Increasing need for
adaptation to
accompany
mitigation efforts
From IPCC AR4 WG1 2007
1st assessment report
2nd assessment report
3rd assessment report
Observed
Constant from 2000
Emissions scenarios
Adaptation = adjustments in ecological, social, and economic systems in
response to the effects of climate change. (Smit et al. 2000)

16. Forests and adaptation
 Technological
(e.g. assisted migrations, increased resilience)
 Behavioral
(e.g. altered ecosystem service requirements)
 Managerial
(e.g. altered forest practices)
 Policy
(e.g. planning regulations)
“…more extensive adaptation than is currently occurring is required to
reduce vulnerability to future climate change. There are barriers, limits
and costs, but these are not fully understood.” (IPCC AR4 WG2 2007)
A portfolio of adaptation and mitigation measures can diminish
the risks associated with climate change.
Opportunities?