The document discusses survivorship bias and why it is misleading to focus only on highly successful people when trying to determine how to achieve success. It argues that studying only the small number of successes ignores the large number of failures who employed similar strategies. Looking at a few famous successes does not provide reliable information, as the same strategies did not work for most people attempting the same goals. The document advocates learning from studying both successes and failures to avoid being distorted by survivorship bias.
3. Financial success is often used to measure how successful a person has
become. How important should family, friendship, health, and
knowledge be in determining how successful we become in our lives?
4. Meet in small groups and discuss this topic.
How would you determine if a person has been
successful during their life?
What is your definition of success?
Which definition best fits your value system?
5. What is Success for You?
• Financial
• Loving Relationships
• Good Health for you and your family
• Happy Family Environment
• Personal Satisfaction of Achievement ( creative arts,
scientific discoveries/inventions, helping others become
happy and successful)
• Gaining high levels of wisdom and self understanding
6. Class Discussion
• Can people improve their chances of becoming
successful in life?
• How do people learn to become successful ?
7. We all want to choose the paths that
give us the best chance of achieving our
goals. But how do we improve our
chances?
8. We could look at famous people who have become very
successful in the eyes of society. Well known
multimillionaires often share their stories of success with
us. In fact, some of these financially successful people
write books and give seminars about how to become
successful. Movie stars and musicians are very visible
examples of people who came from average families and
followed a path that enabled them to become famous and
adored by many people.
9. Do we learn more about how to become successful
by studying people who have become successful or
by studying people who have tried hard but have
had failures along the way?
10. Meet in small groups and discuss this topic.
• Is it possible that studying the small number of people
who become highly successful in sports or music might
lead us down unsuccessful paths? Explain.
• If we are going to start a small business in town, would it
be better to read a book by Donald Trump about how he
became successful or to talk to a few people who had
small businesses that failed? Why?
11. Report Back to Class
Share your findings with the class.
Which approach did you favor?
Would it be better to learn from the successes of
famous people or the failures of others when you
are planning your own path?
12. “I quit college and became a billionaire”.
“Richard Branson, Bill Gates, and Mark Zuckerberg all dropped
out of school and became billionaires! You don’t need school to
succeed. Entrepreneurs just need to stop wasting time in class
and get started.” Do you agree or disagree? Why?
13. Should we attempt to follow in the paths of
highly successful people or should we learn
from those who failed?
14. Do we learn more from studying failure?
Although it may sound counterintuitive, researchers
contend that it is more informative to study why
people fail than it is to focus on the successes of a
relatively small group of well known people.
15. Looking at the life stories of successful people won’t necessarily do you any
good. Is it true that Bill Gates and Maya Angelou both dropped out of college?
Well, yes—but given that over a third of each enrolled class of students in the
U.S. drops out before graduating, and there are only a handful of Microsoft
founders and poet laureates, this hardly seems like a defining characteristic. To
really understand the secret of success, we would have to look at examples of
lots of college dropouts—including the ones who failed. What statistic is
cited in this paragraph that makes it clear that those who
drop out of college are not good examples of how to
become successful.
16. We can easily find a couple hundred people
that dropped out of college and became very
financially successful.
• How many people do you think we’ll find that
were very successful that completed college?
• Does completing college seem to be important
in determining future success?
• Why do you think more education may result in
more future success?
17. Is it logical to generalize from a small sample?
If you have a hundred thousand people attempting to be highly successful in the
internet technology field, but only hear about the success of a few of them, do
you think the information will be reliable about why some of the people were
successful and why a very large number were unsuccessful or only average in
achieving their goals?
18. Winner Bias
• Survivorship bias(winner bias) refers to our tendency to
focus on the winners in a particular area and try to learn
from them while completely forgetting about the losers
who are employing the same strategy.
• There might be thousands of athletes who train in a very
similar way to LeBron James, but never made it to the
NBA. The problem is nobody hears about the thousands of
athletes who never made it to the top. We only hear from
the people who survive. We mistakenly overvalue the
strategies, tactics, and advice of one survivor while
ignoring the fact that the same strategies, tactics, and
advice didn’t work for most people.
19. Re-read the following paragraph. What argument is
the author making about the effectiveness of
following the advice of famous athletes?
There might be thousands of athletes who train in a very similar way
to LeBron James, but never made it to the NBA. The problem is
nobody hears about the thousands of athletes who never made it to
the top. We only hear from the people who survive. We mistakenly
overvalue the strategies, tactics, and advice of one survivor while
ignoring the fact that the same strategies, tactics, and advice didn’t
work for most people.
20. It’s entirely possible that Richard Branson succeeded in spite of his
path and not because of it. For every Branson, Gates, and Zuckerberg,
there are thousands of other entrepreneurs with failed projects, debt-
heavy bank accounts, and half-finished degrees. Survivorship bias isn’t
merely saying that a strategy may not work well for you, it’s also saying
that we don’t really know if the strategy works well at all.
21. Do failures eventually result in success?
A new study suggests that people who try and fail at business are far more
likely to succeed if they pick themselves up and start over again. Maybe if more
entrepreneurs fessed up to failure—and more would-be entrepreneurs listened
to them instead of succumbing to survivorship bias—the pitfalls of startup
ventures could be avoided more often.
22. Nearly every popular online media outlet is filled with survivorship
bias these days. Anywhere you see articles with titles like “8 Things
Successful People Do Everyday” or “The Best Advice Richard Branson
Ever Received” or “How LeBron James Trains in the Off-Season” you
are seeing survivorship bias in action.
23. How does this paragraph argue that using Steve
Jobs, the creator of Apple, as an example of how to
succeed is a bad idea?
The survivor bias was evident in the reception of Walter Isaacson's
2011 best-selling biography of Steve Jobs, as readers scrambled to
understand what made the mercurial genius so successful. Want to be
the next Steve Jobs and create the next Apple Computer? Drop out of
college and start a business with your buddies in the garage of your
parents' home. How many people have followed the Jobs model and
failed? Who knows? No one writes books about them and their
unsuccessful companies.
24. Quick Write
Explain why survivorship bias distorts our
understanding of how to become successful. Why
is it misleading to focus on the most famous
successful people?
25. When the winners are remembered and the losers are
forgotten it becomes very difficult to say if a particular
strategy leads to success. So for every wealthy start-up
founder, there are 100 other entrepreneurs who end up
with only a cluttered garage.”
26. Why would experts say that the road to success is
paved with failures?
27. Success can only be determined if you have clear
goals. How can you get there if you aren’t sure
where you are headed?
28. Evaluating personal progress toward our goals is only possible if our
goals are specific and include periodic benchmarks. We need to list the
steps necessary to reach our goals and revise them periodically if
necessary. What are some examples of goals that
include steps toward achieving them.
29. Quick Write
Write about your personal or career goals
and some of the steps that will be
necessary in order to achieve them.
30. Successful people track their progress periodically and make changes when
necessary. They understand that it is critical for people to be self reflective
about monitoring their own progress. Fooling themselves about their own lack
of commitment and follow through almost always results in failure.
31. What is your interpretation of the
meaning of this statement?
32. If you set goals for your future, what will
determine if you make it to the finish line?
33. What events are usually not visible when
we see successful people?
34. Examine the Following Case
• Jon and Susie opened a little restaurant in a mostly
middleclass town.
• They love Italian food so they created a menu with a
variety of Italian meals.
• They signed a pricey, three year lease in a location near
the middle of town. They loved the architecture of the
building and the large square feet of space. Even though
they wouldn’t need the space for quite awhile, they
figured that some day they would have the ability to
expand their business.
35. • Jon and Susie wanted very tasty, high quality dinners
so they chose a menu with meals ranging from $15.95
to $29.95.
• Their dinners included five types of fish all served
with fresh fish. They opted to not serve any frozen or
farmed fish.
• They spent $8,000. for a beautiful sign that read, ”Jon
and Susie’s Eatery”.
• They limited their restaurant hours to 4:30PM to 10:00
PM so they would not interfere too much with family
life. In addition, they followed the example of “Chick-
fil-A” and decided to close on Sundays.
• Review the next slide and discuss in small groups.
36. Meet in Groups and Discuss the Following
Review the previous case study of a small business owner.
Analyze the decisions that the couple made as they created
their restaurant business. Identify decisions that you believe
were unwise or too risky. Examine every part of their
restaurant plan. What might you have done
differently to avoid the risks of financial
failure?
38. What do you “take away” from this
statement by Michael Jordan?
39. Do you agree with these ideas?
Why is it that many people are
unable to follow this advice?
40. Many things in our life can be done today or put off for
another day. What are the consequences of putting
things off to another time?
41. Getting things done in a timely manner keeps us from
getting overwhelmed and stressed out. However,
getting things done requires a certain amount of self
discipline and commitment to our goals.
42. Quick Write
Are you a procrastinator? Do you put off
boring stuff or had work for another day
if you can get away with it? Do you plan
ahead or do you prefer to wait? Or, do
you prefer to let it fly?
43. What is self discipline? What are some examples
of people’s behavior that demonstrates self
discipline? How does self discipline help us
attain our goals?
44. One of the key ingredients for self
discipline is will power. Do you have the will
power to choose the healthy option? Do you have
the will power to tell your friends that you can’t
hang out because you have homework to complete?
45. Having the will power to make hard decisions can be
uncomfortable. Sometimes we have to choose between
pleasure and pain. Why is it smart to choose a little pain
today as part of a long term game plan?
47. Quick Write
Do you have to will power to achieve
your goals? How can you improve your
will power? Do you find yourself giving
excuses often? Are you confident that
you will be able to achieve your goals?
48. How much determination do you have? Do you
procrastinate too much? Are you in the habit of making
excuses? Do you have the GRIT to succeed? You can
change! Tomorrow is a new day. Set new, short term goals.
You can do it “one step at a time”.
49. Some goals are never attained because of distractions,
lack of focus, and insufficient motivation. How would
immediate gratification be a dream killer?
50. Reaching long term goals requires controlling emotional needs
and planning ahead for the future. What kind of
emotional needs get in our way? Why do we
like to take the easy way out?
51. Long term goals cannot be achieved without learning how to
delay immediate gratification. What is immediate
gratification? How does it impede our ability to
achieve our goals?
52. The vast majority of successful people will tell you that developing
important skills and working hard are necessary for success.
53. Life presents many obstacles and disappointments. Those who give
up easily, will accomplish far less than those who learn to tough it
out. Psychologists refer to this trait as GRIT.
54. If we give up in the face of adversity, our progress slows to a
crawl. We look for relief by taking the easy way out.
Immediate gratification wins the day.
55. Meet in Groups and Discuss
• What kind of obstacles get in your way?
• How do you cope with the issues that get in your
way?
• What strategies might be used to keep your head
above water when those around you are losing
theirs?
• How can you survive the daily hassles of modern
life?
56. Quick Write
Describe the personal characteristics that you believe
people need if they are likely to become successful
personally or professionally. Use some of the following
traits or add your own choice of traits.
• Persistent
• Hard Worker
• Intensely Motivated
• Goal Oriented
• Very Resourceful
• Grit
57. Why do you think that being curious,
passionate, and optimistic are often
important traits for successful people?
58. Success means achieving personal and career goals. Our attitudes,
skills, and knowledge should match our goals and lead to positive
behavior change. What kind of behavior changes might
be necessary in order for us to achieve our goals?
59. Quick Write
Use the career development model on the next
slide as you write about the following topic.
Describe one way you could go
about planning, preparing, and
initiating a selected career.
63. The decision is yours. You can choose to be a
winner or a loser. Make your choice today and never
look back. No one can stop you, but you can stop
yourself. Choose your path and make it happen.
64. The Seven Habits of Highly Successful People
7 min Animated Excellent
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktlTxC4QG8g
65. 12 Suggestions by Billionaires for Success
10 min
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWJTYN6qf3Y
66. Japanese Technique to Overcome Laziness
Brightside 4 min
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DbvSl_C_kY
67. 12 Reasons to Always Rely on the Brightside
15 min by Brightside Excellent
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGeOcudxSG0