UK Rail WLC Modelling Example

3. Scope changes for each OptionNotes: GRIP 3: costs need to be estimated at a high level (by Asset Class) e.g. Planned Maintenance cost per track metre per year Fault & Delay Data WLCM to include Failure (Frequency or Probability) and Delay Time (Repair Time) data for each asset type. - Different failure modes for Existing, Modified and New assets. - Failure Frequency and Repair Times entered as probability distributions. Capital Costs Initial Capital Costs defined by Work Package (by Asset Class, e.g. Pway, Structures and Stations, and by Location) Performance-Penalty Costs No current Crossrail Performance-Penalty regime. However, performance-penatly costs must form part of the WLC calculation. 2. Future Capital Costs will need to be estimated at high level Notes: GRIP 3: Future Captical Costs need to be estimated at a high level (by Asset Class) Notes: GRIP 3: penatly costs could an estimate of average cost of each train delay minute Notes: GRIP 3: comparible fault and duration data can be used Crossrail WLCM WLCM Outputs Options Cost (Risk) Analysis This example WLCM output illustrates results from two (2) WP Options: Option A: Larger mean, but narrower distribution of costs, i.e. less risk Option B: Smallar mean, but wider distribution of costs, i.e. Higher risk NOTE: Choice of option will depend on ability to manage Risks! Notes: GRIP 3: the same output could be generated for each WP and/or the whole Crossrail Network

6. Scope may change minimaly during detail designNotes: GRIP 4: maybe possible to obtain Network Rail maintenance tasks & costs or comparible tasks / costs Fault & Delay Data WLCM to include Failure (Frequency or Probability) and Delay Time (Repair Time) data for each asset type. - Different failure modes for Existing, Modified and New assets. - Failure Frequency and Repair Times entered as probability distributions. Performance-Penalty Costs No current Crossrail Performance-Penalty regime. However, performance-penatly costs must form part of the WLC calculation. Capital Costs Initial Capital Costs defined by Work Package (by Asset Class, e.g. Pway, Structures and Stations, and by Location) 2. Future Capital Costs will need to be estimated at high level Notes: GRIP 4: maybe possible to implement Network Rail Performance-Penalty regime Notes: GRIP 4: maybe possible to obtain comparible Future Captical Costs from Network Rail or other source Notes: GRIP 4: maybe possible to use comparible fault and duration data from Network Rail data sources Crossrail WLCM WLCM Outputs Options Cost (Risk) Analysis This example WLCM output illustrates results from two (2) WP Options. Option A and Option B results are much more (a) accuarate, and (b) closer at the Mean and 95% percentile at the this stage as Options contain minumal changes, design is more detailed , and costs are more accurate Notes: GRIP 4: maybe possible to extend output from WP and whole Crossrail Network to specific assets