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Facilitation of further regional disaggregation of the TIAM model
Formatvorlage des Untertitelmasters durch Klicken
bearbe...
Facilitation of further regional disaggregation of the TIAM modelIER Universität Stuttgart 2
Motivation
• The level of det...
Facilitation of further regional disaggregation of the TIAM modelIER Universität Stuttgart 3
Spatial resolution in ETSAP-T...
Facilitation of further regional disaggregation of the TIAM modelIER Universität Stuttgart 4
Approach
Aggregate region (AG...
Facilitation of further regional disaggregation of the TIAM modelIER Universität Stuttgart 5
Approach
Develop the Base-Yea...
Facilitation of further regional disaggregation of the TIAM modelIER Universität Stuttgart 6
Step 1 – Use of the regional ...
Facilitation of further regional disaggregation of the TIAM modelIER Universität Stuttgart 7
Example of the use of the too...
Facilitation of further regional disaggregation of the TIAM model 8IER Universität Stuttgart
Step 2
• The second step of d...
Facilitation of further regional disaggregation of the TIAM model 9IER Universität Stuttgart
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Facilitation of further regional disaggregation of the TIAM model 10
Step 3
• In this step, technology-specific parameters...
Facilitation of further regional disaggregation of the TIAM modelIER Universität Stuttgart 11
Step 4
• In the fourth step,...
Facilitation of further regional disaggregation of the TIAM modelIER Universität Stuttgart 12
Step 5
• In this step, the c...
Facilitation of further regional disaggregation of the TIAM modelIER Universität Stuttgart 13
Step 6
• Step 6 updates the ...
Facilitation of further regional disaggregation of the TIAM model
• The regional disaggregation tool was used to develop t...
Facilitation of further regional disaggregation of the TIAM model
E-Mail
Telefon +49 (0) 711 685-
Universität Stuttgart
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Facilitation of further regional disaggregation of the ETSAP-TIAM model

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Facilitation of further regional disaggregation of the ETSAP-TIAM model

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Facilitation of further regional disaggregation of the ETSAP-TIAM model

  1. 1. Facilitation of further regional disaggregation of the TIAM model Formatvorlage des Untertitelmasters durch Klicken bearbeiten Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung (IER) IER Facilitation of further regional disaggregation of the ETSAP-TIAM model Babak Mousavi Markus Blesl 18.06.201873rd Semi-Annual ETSAP workshop, Gothenburg, Sweden
  2. 2. Facilitation of further regional disaggregation of the TIAM modelIER Universität Stuttgart 2 Motivation • The level of detail of a particular energy model is typically inversely correlated with its level of integration. • The wider the system boundaries of a model are the coarser is the representation of individual subsystems and their components. Limited number of regions High number of regions • Typical global energy system models • Relatively few uncertain assumptions on regional developments • Decision making (especially in the short-term) takes place at the national or even subnational level • Several policies are implemented at the national level • The opportunity to analyse the energy-environmental issues of a new country/region from the global perspective The focus on aggregate regions limits the usefulness of a global model
  3. 3. Facilitation of further regional disaggregation of the TIAM modelIER Universität Stuttgart 3 Spatial resolution in ETSAP-TIAM • The ETSAP-TIAM model includes some highly aggregated regions such as Former Soviet Union, Africa, Central and South USA and Western Europe. • To address the challenges discussed, there is a need for using a higher spatial resolution by representing more countries.
  4. 4. Facilitation of further regional disaggregation of the TIAM modelIER Universität Stuttgart 4 Approach Aggregate region (AGG) New region 1 (NEW1) New region 2 (NEW2)
  5. 5. Facilitation of further regional disaggregation of the TIAM modelIER Universität Stuttgart 5 Approach Develop the Base-Year templates of NEW1 Include new scenarios (e.g. policies and constraints) and update the existing scenarios Include the energy-service demand drivers/elasticities of NEW1 and NEW2 Include new trade links, assumptions and constraints and update the existing trade assumptions/constraints Include technology-specific parameters (e.g. hurdle rate) for NEW1 and NEW2 • To break an Aggregate region (AGG) to two new regions (NEW1 and NEW2), the following steps should be taken: Develop the Base-Year templates of NEW1 (or update the Base-Year templates of AGG) 1 2 3 4 5 6 Test the model with the new regional resolution7 Aggregate region (AGG) New region 1 (NEW1) New region 2 (NEW2)
  6. 6. Facilitation of further regional disaggregation of the TIAM modelIER Universität Stuttgart 6 Step 1 – Use of the regional disaggregation tool Regional disaggregation tool IEA Extended world energy balances in 2005 VT_GER_UPS_V1p1.xls VT_GER_ELC_V1p1.xls VT_GER_RES_V1p1.xls VT_GER_IND_V1p1.xls VT_GER_TRA_V1p1.xls Base-Year templates • Development of the Base-Year templates for NEW1 (e.g. Germany): Note: The tool can be used not only to develop Base-Year templates for a country, but also for a region.
  7. 7. Facilitation of further regional disaggregation of the TIAM modelIER Universität Stuttgart 7 Example of the use of the tool: Base-Year calibration for Germany -2000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 IEA TIAM 2005 PJ Primary energy consumption Electricity import Other renewables Biomass and waste Nuclear Natural gas Oil Coal 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 IEA TIAM 2005 TWh Electricity generation Other renewables Wind Biomass and waste Nuclear Natural gas Oil Coal 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 IEA TIAM 2005 PJ Final energy consumption Other renewables Biomass and waste Heat Electricity Natural gas Oil Coal 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 IEA TIAM 2005 PJ Final energy consumption Others Industry Transport
  8. 8. Facilitation of further regional disaggregation of the TIAM model 8IER Universität Stuttgart Step 2 • The second step of disaggregation and calibration of the model is to update the Base-Year templates of the AGG region. Western Europe Germany Rest of Western Europe • Two options can be used:  Subtracting the statistical data of the Base-Year templates: 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑎 𝑅𝑊𝐸 = 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑎 𝑊𝐸𝑈 − 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑎 𝐺𝐸𝑅  Using the Regional disaggregation tool: Regional disaggregation tool Italy France Spain ...    VT_RWE_UPS_V1p1.xls VT_RWE_ELC_V1p1.xls VT_RWE_RES_V1p1.xls VT_RWE_IND_V1p1.xls VT_RWE_TRA_V1p1.xls Base-Year templates
  9. 9. Facilitation of further regional disaggregation of the TIAM model 9IER Universität Stuttgart 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 WEU GER+RWEU 2005 TWh Electricity generation Other renewables Wind Biomass and waste Nuclear Natural gas Oil Coal Example of the use of the tool: Base-Year calibration for the Rest of Western-Europe (RWE) 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 WEU GER+RWEU 2005 PJ Primar energy consumption Electricity import Other renewables Biomass and waste Nuclear Natural gas Oil Coal 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 WEU GER+RWEU 2005 PJ Other renewables Biomass and waste Heat Electricity Natural gas Oil Coal 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 WEU GER+RWEU 2005 PJ Others Industry Transport
  10. 10. Facilitation of further regional disaggregation of the TIAM model 10 Step 3 • In this step, technology-specific parameters of the NEW1 and NEW2 regions are added to the model. The parameters include:  Investment, variable and fix costs  Availability factor  Hurdle rate IER Universität Stuttgart • It can be initially assumed that the given parameters of NEW1 (e.g. GER) and NEW2 (e.g. RWE) are equal to those of the AGG region (e.g. WEU). The user, however, is able to update and modify the given assumptions.
  11. 11. Facilitation of further regional disaggregation of the TIAM modelIER Universität Stuttgart 11 Step 4 • In the fourth step, the energy-service demands of the NEW1 and NEW2 regions are projected: • The demand elasticities of the NEW1 and NEW2 regions are initially set according to the elasticities for the AGG region. Regional disaggregation tool Projection of population, GDP and number of households of NEW1 Base15R Dem_Alloc+series New “Demand Scen” sheets
  12. 12. Facilitation of further regional disaggregation of the TIAM modelIER Universität Stuttgart 12 Step 5 • In this step, the current scenarios of the model are updated and new scenarios for the new regions are included. • However, this step is highly case-dependent and the user should update the scenario sheets based on the characteristics of new regions.
  13. 13. Facilitation of further regional disaggregation of the TIAM modelIER Universität Stuttgart 13 Step 6 • Step 6 updates the trade sheets in the model’s database. • One of the challenges of updating the trade sheets is to specify trade cost and bounds according to the given trade links. • The regional disaggregation tool can facilitate this process by generating the required tables. Regional disaggregation tool
  14. 14. Facilitation of further regional disaggregation of the TIAM model • The regional disaggregation tool was used to develop the TIAM-GER model. • The new model was fully calibrated to Base-Year statistical data. • Base and 1.5°C scenarios were successfully tested. • It is possible to use the final version of the regional disaggregation tool in the ETSAP-TIAM development process. • The tool can be employed to facilitate the re-calibration of the ETSAP-TIAM model to statistical data in 2012. 14 Summary and outlook IER Universität Stuttgart
  15. 15. Facilitation of further regional disaggregation of the TIAM model E-Mail Telefon +49 (0) 711 685- Universität Stuttgart Heßbrühlstraße 49a 70565 Stuttgart Babak Mousavi 878-66 Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung (IER) am@ier.uni-stuttgart.de Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung (IER) IER Thank you for your attention!

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