Analysis is a key part of the intelligence cycle that involves gathering information, assessing it for actionable intelligence, and fitting pieces together to understand situations fully. However, analysts are prone to various cognitive and perceptual biases that can negatively impact their work. Some common biases include only seeing what they expect, being resistant to changing views, and mirror imaging where analysts assume others will think like them. Techniques for overcoming these biases include key assumption checks to scrutinize underlying assumptions, analyzing competing hypotheses to consider alternative explanations, and red team analysis to view situations from other perspectives. Regular use of various techniques can help analysts produce more accurate, unbiased conclusions.

1. Collin Cenci
Analysis is one of the key components to the intelligence cycle,
arguably the most crucial piece of the puzzle. There first has to
be a need, from there analysts decide what we don't know, what
we need to know, how we can we find the answers, etc... Once
the information is gathered analysts have the daunting task of
not only turning that information into actionable intelligence,
but fitting these pieces of intelligence into the puzzle. To make
their job all the more difficult, they are constantly working to
overcome a slew of perceptual and cognitive biases that can
negatively affect their results. Some of these biases include
objectively evaluating an analyst's expectations. If the evidence
even remotely suggests that the target is someone that the
analyst expected to be the culprit, it's incredibly difficult to
make a positive case for any evidence that suggests to the
contrary. The bias of availability is merely the perceived
likelihood of a result. When evidence suggests a result that the
analyst perceives as unrealistic, they tend to discount all
evidence supporting that end. A final example is that of
consistency, when results are consistent even over a short
period of time, which establishes a trend for the analyst that is
conditioned to expect a similar result time and again. These are
only a few of the many biases that cloud the judgment of all
analysts, but there are techniques for overcoming these pitfalls.
One technique best used in the very beginning of the
analytical process is to run a Key Assumptions Check. Nearly
all situations are going to have some assumptions made by
analysts that have any prior experience with similar situations.
The trick is to not let these assumptions mold the estimates and
analysis that comes out of the process. As a team, analysts lay
out all of their assumptions and slowly pick them apart to

2. ensure these assumptions are based on fact and logic. A second
technique is the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, particularly
useful in scenarios where the possibilities are numerous and
data is extensive. (Heuer 1999) Preferably as a team, lay out a
matrix of all the evidence on one axis and possible hypotheses
on the other. From there simply go down the line discussing
which pieces of evidence support which hypotheses. There will
probably be some arguments that rise from this discussion, but
analysts may be shocked to find how the evidence they felt
supported their hypothesis may similarly support another
hypothesis, possibly better than their own. The final example is
called Red Team Analysis, or in simpler terms, analysts putting
themselves in their enemies’ “shoes.”(Tradecraft 2009) Many
assumptions are made based on cultural and societal differences
between the analyst and their objective. To overcome this bias,
analysts are tasked with considering the situation from the
perspective of the target. This can be a particularly challenging
task when many of our adversaries have been culturally on
opposite extremes from our own. How we would respond to a
stimulus is often quite different from how a Middle Eastern
society would respond. There are numerous techniques, which
can and should be used regularly and in concert with one
another to reach the most accurate un-biased conclusions.
A tradecraft primer: Structured analytic techniques for
improving intelligence analysis. (2009). Washington, D.C.: US
Government.
Heuer, R. J. (1999). Psychology of intelligence analysis.
Washington, D.C.: Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central
Intelligence Agency.
Abbas Abdulhussein

3. The drugs have been an issue in the United States for very long
time and fighting it is very difficult mission for the government
so far because the US government is fighting drugs internally
and externally. Which means that the United States is fighting
the drug organizations in other countries such as Mexico,
Colombia, Bolivia, and many other countries. But there are
issues with cooperation between the US government and other
governments because not every country have same laws and
strict rules as the United States. Drug organizations take
advantage of weak states such as Mexico, Afghanistan,
Colombia, panama, and Peru because the governments in these
countries are not able to fight these drug organizations. The war
on drugs in Colombia affected the cultivatable land because the
US Aide and the Colombian government used pesticide to kill
the coca plants. But even with all of the efforts and spending,
the cocaine was still being produced and moved throughout
Colombia. The United States government provided training to
the Colombian Military and police in order to be able to fight
these organizations under the Colombian Plan. The United
States have zero tolerance for drugs because the source of drugs
is unknown and terrorist organizations might use drugs to obtain
profits which will give them the ability to use the money to
conduct attacks inside the United States. The Cooperation is
going, but it is not perfect there are always challenges. The
problem in the countries that host the drug organizations is that
there are corrupt personnel in these governments that facilitate
the movement of drugs or provide the means necessary to keep
the drug flow going smoothly. The United States government
spending millions of dollars every year to be part of the
international drug control efforts. Drug organizations are like
cancer and it is very difficult to fight because they are well
funded and organized. The drugs does not only undermine the
economy but it causes social issues and destroy the American
way of life. Especially if the youth get addicted to using drugs
then the entire generation will be useless and will result in

4. regression in the growth of the country. Drugs can cause lives,
and property for the user or people around them.
Sim, P. (2010). The USA and Plan Colombia: The War on Drugs
on Foreign Soil. Colombian Plan.
Andrew Wilson
“Select one country Bolivia, Canada, Colombia, Dominican
Republic, Ecuador, Guatemala, Mexico, Pakistan, Panama, Peru,
and Venezuela, and explain the impediments to cooperative
efforts.”
I found some good information on state.gov that I pasted below
pertaining to impediments and cooperative efforts:
The United States established diplomatic relations with Peru in
1827 following Peru’s independence from Spain. In the last
decade, Peru has seen consistent economic growth, poverty
reduction, and broad support for democracy. The country is a
key U.S. partner in Latin America, and the two have strong,
positive, and cooperative relations – to include anti-narcotic
efforts - (BUREAU OF WESTERN HEMISPHERE AFFAIRS,
2016).
To further strengthen its democracy, combat transnational
organized crime, and promote socially inclusive economic
growth, the Peruvian government has committed to broaden
economic opportunities throughout the nation, as well as to
increase the State’s presence in areas susceptible to the
influence and control of narco-traffickers, including the
Apurimac, Ene and Montaro River Valley . U.S. assistance
promotes these objectives through bilateral programs that
support Peru’s anti-narcotics and alternative development
efforts, advance social and economic inclusion, improve
governance, strengthen basic education, and promote sound

5. environmental stewardship (BUREAU OF WESTERN
HEMISPHERE AFFAIRS, 2016).
Approximately one quarter of the population continues to live
in poverty, the country has made progress on the eradication of
illegal coca but remains one of the world’s top producers of
cocaine, and social conflicts over natural resources pose serious
challenges. Socially inclusive and environmentally sustainable
growth remain critical to continued poverty reduction
(BUREAU OF WESTERN HEMISPHERE AFFAIRS, 2016).
Bilateral Economic Relations
Economic and commercial ties have deepened with the 2009
entry into force of the U.S.- Peru TPA. The volume and
diversity of trade in both directions has grown with two-way
trade increasing from $9 billion in 2009 to $14 billion in 2015.
Agricultural trade was a bilateral highlight with U.S. exports at
$1.1 billion in 2015and Peruvian exports at $1.7 billion. Total
U.S. exports to Peru were $8.8 billion in 2015. Approximately
500,000 U.S. citizens visit Peru annually for business, tourism,
or study. The United States and Peru concluded Trans-Pacific
Partnership (TPP) negotiations to establish a regional trade
agreement among 12 countries, and signed the TPP agreement in
February 2016 (BUREAU OF WESTERN HEMISPHERE
AFFAIRS, 2016).
Looking at the crime rates from osac.gov; narcotic related
crimes are quite low. Most the violent crimes happen at night
and on the roads. Some other areas of concern – regarding crime
– are counterfeit good, burglary, vehicle theft, and kidnappings.
Don’t get me wrong Peru is still a dangerous place, but the
Cocaine production/distribution is somewhat “peaceful” as there
is little threat and competition - Cocaine lords also pose a real
threat as they have a small army -. In the recent years Peru has
overtaken Columbia in Cocaine production. Hopefully with the

6. United States backing Peru in anti-narcotics efforts; a solid
strategy can be put in place and executed with the same
effectiveness as Columbia. Another “thing” that needs to be
taken care of is the institutional weakness and political
corruptness. Police and government officials can be easily
bought by these Cartels. In an interview with the head of the
police anti-drug directorate, the DIRANDRO, General Vicente
Romero said that they were tracking the presence of Mexican,
Colombian and Russian organized crime syndicates operating in
Peru (McDermott, 2013).
With increasing pressure in both Mexico and Colombia, several
top level criminals have sought safe climates and have
established operations in Peru, officials said. The Sinaloa Cartel
is believed to have permanent presence in Peru, centered around
the port of Piura, with emissaries in Lima as well. With Peru
now providing much of the cocaine headed towards Europe, the
arrival of the Russian mafia is no surprise (McDermott, 2013).
In the end, Peru offers much less resistance to international
drug trafficking than Colombia at the moment. It is perhaps
inevitable that organized crime pay more attention to Peru,
where the raw material can be harvested, law enforcement and
the judiciary is open to corruption, and money laundering is
still relatively straightforward (McDermott, 2013).
- Andrew
Sources;
http://www.insightcrime.org/news-analysis/is-peru-no-longer-
world-top-cocaine-producer
https://www.osac.gov/pages/ContentReportDetails.aspx?cid=17
788
http://www.state.gov

7. Jessica Bordelon
Though Venezuela is considered a small scale producer of
opiates and coca derivatives, it remains a key player in the
transshipments of illicit drugs from Columbia to the US and
Europe. (Central Intelligence Agency 2016) Historically, the
government of Venezuela has been known to promote socialism
and increase authoritative control over its people. The country
is on the brink of a total economic collapse due to relying
exclusively on the export of oil and ever increasing inflation
rates, stemming from the price control policies implemented
under Hugo Chavez’ presidency. According to Fortune
magazine, Venezuela is known to be one of the most corrupt
countries in the world. (Chew 2016) So, it is no surprise that
cooperative efforts between Venezuela and the US are lacking.
The unstable government along with deteriorating social and
economic landscapes have laid the foundation for the promotion
of illicit activity within and across its borders in exchange for
monetary gains. Relations between the US and Venezuela have
been tense since the establishment of bilateral relations in 1835.
(AFFAIRS 2016) It has been identified, since 2005, when
Venezuela refused to sign the addendum to the 1978 Bilateral
Counternarcotics Memorandum of Understanding, Venezuela
has failed to adhere to its obligations under international
counter-narcotics agreements. (Bureau for International
Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs 2013)
Cooperation between the Venezuela and the DEA ceased after
2005, but minimal cooperation with USCG remained. (Bureau
for International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs 2013)
Venezuela often gives the USCG authority to board Venezuelan
vessels to identify illicit operations or drugs that may reside
onboard, but then must hand over the evidence to Venezuelan
authorities. It is rare that prosecution of such activities ever

8. occur. The main reason may lie in the ability of the Venezuelan
government to profit from confiscated materials and/or their
involvement in allowing drug traffickers to use them as a drug
corridor in exchange for profit.
In addition to abstaining from adhering to International counter-
narcotics policies in return for profit, the Venezuelan
government has an interest in maintaining alliances with other
“rogue nations”. The US has placed sanctions on Iran, regarding
the import of oil from Venezuela, in the past. It is well known
the strong alliance and relationships between the two. If
Venezuela were to fall in line with US values, they may lose
their alliance.
References
AFFAIRS, BUREAU OF WESTERN HEMISPHERE. U.S.
Relations With Venezuela . August 31, 2016.
http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/35766.htm (accessed October
11, 2016).
Bureau for International Narcotics and Law Enforcement
Affairs. "International Narcotics Control Strategy Report:
Volume 1 Drug and Chemical Control." US Department of
State. March 2013.
https://edge.apus.edu/access/content/group/security-and-global-
studies-
common/Intelligence%20Studies/INTL446/Content/Week%206/I
NCSR2013.pdf (accessed October 11, 2016).
Central Intelligence Agency. The World Factbook: South
America, Venezuela. September 28, 2016.
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-
factbook/geos/ve.html (accessed October 11, 2016).
Chew, Jonathan. These Are the Most Corrupt Countries In the

9. World. January 27, 2016.
http://fortune.com/2016/01/27/transparency-corruption-index/
(accessed October 11, 2016).
Peter Harman
The first step in reducing the effect of cognitive and perceptual
bias is to first understand what they are. Heuer noted:
“Cognitive biases are mental errors caused by our simplified
information processing strategies.” (Richards J. Heuer, 1999).
Because of our limited cognitive abilities, we make assumptions
to fill our information gaps, these assumptions are not always
right.
Heuer brought up some the limitations (Richards J. Heuer,
1999):
-We tend to perceive what we expect to perceive.
-Mind-sets tend to be quick to form but resistant to change.
-Initial exposure to blurred or ambiguous stimuli interferes with
accurate perception even after more and better information
becomes available.
The Tradecraft Primer brings up more of these limitations (and
directly quotes Heuer)
Some Common form of bias are:
-Mirror Imaging: “filling gaps in the analyst's own knowledge
by assuming that the other side is likely to act in a certain way
because that is how the US would act under similar
circumstances.” (Richards J. Heuer, 1999) (ex. Iraq would never
fake having WMDs because it is illogical, the USSR would

10. never put ICBMs in Cuba)
-Satisficing: selecting the first identified alternative that
appears "good enough"
There are quite a few techniques for combating perceptual
limitations and the resulting cognitive bias.
-Heuer proposed the use of Analysis of Competing Hypothesis
which is a structured framework for rating hypothesis based on
what is unlikely.
The following strategies were set forth in the Tradecraft Primer
(US Government, 2009):
-Key Assumption Check: List and review the key working
assumptions on which fundamental judgments rest. (in my
words: find what you are assuming and see if it makes sense)
-Quality of Information Check: Evaluates completeness and
soundness of available information sources. (in my words:
check your sources and make sure you know the quality)
-Indicators or signposts of change: Periodically review a list of
observable events or trends to track events, monitor targets,
spot emerging trends, and warn of unanticipated change. (in my
words: set a significant event that will assist in the analysis and
monitor to see if that event has been tripped)
-Devil’s Advocacy: Challenging a single, strongly held view or
consensus by building the best possible case for an alternative
explanation. (in my words: try to poke holes in the prevailing
logic)
-Team A / Team B: Use of separate analytic teams that contrast
two (or more) strongly held views or competing hypotheses. (in

11. my words: have two teams thoroughly investigate an issue and
contrast the findings, make sure they don’t go the same
direction)
-High impact low probability analysis: Highlights a seemingly
unlikely event that would have major policy consequences if it
happened. (see if a Pearl Harbor or 9/11 may happen).
-“What If?” Analysis: Assumes that an event has occurred with
potential (negative or positive) impact and explains how it
might come about. (in my words: see what would happen if
certain things were actually the case)
-And even more!
There are a lot of strategies and they are useful in different
situations. One of the big factors is time, analytic technique
takes time which requires a lot of skill and training to be
effective as there is never enough time
Respectfully,
Harman
References
Richards J. Heuer, J. (1999). Psychology of Intelligence
Analysis . Langley, VA: CENTER for the STUDY of
INTELLIGENCE - CIA.
US Government. (2009). A Tradecraft Primer: Structured
Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis. US
Government.