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Write an essay in which you contrast the principles of Realism
and Naturalism. Select two works (one for each of the literary
movements) that we have discussed in this course to illustrate
your points of contrast. Be sure to refer to specific examples for
support. Fully developed essay (intro., body, concl.) Be sure to
refer to specific examples for support. You should have a
minimum of 600 words, a maximum of 1000 words, in a
standard font such as 12 point Times Roman or Arial.
Remember, this is to be your perspective, supported by your
own insight and notes—do not turn to authoritative sources
outside the class. Since this is an essay, not a research paper
with sources, documentation of the literature is unnecessary. I
prefer the essays to be written in Microsoft Word format.
List of works for each are below:
Realism:
The Death of Ivan Ilyiych by Leo Tolstoy
Life on the Mississippi by Mark Twain
Hedda Gabler by Henrik Ibsen
Naturalism:
“The Lost Phoebe” by Theodore Dreiser
“Chickamauga” by Ambrose Bierce
Textbooks:
• The Norton Anthology of Western Literature. 9 th ed. Vol II.
By Puchner et al. ISBN # 978-0-393-93363-5
• Any Freshman English handbook, collegiate dictionary,
thesaurus. These can be print or digital, including websites.
Chapter 15
Tools of Monetary Policy
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
15-‹#›
1
Preview
This chapter examines the tools used by the Federal Reserve
System to control the money supply and interest rates
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
15-‹#›
Learning Objectives
Illustrate the market for reserves and demonstrate how changes
in monetary policy can affect the federal funds rate.
Summarize how conventional monetary policy tools are
implemented and the advantages and limitations of each tool.
Explain the key monetary policy tools that are used when
conventional policy is no longer effective.
Identify the distinctions and similarities between the monetary
policy tools of the Federal Reserve and those of the European
Central Bank.
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
15-‹#›
The Market For Reserves and the Federal Funds Rate
Demand and Supply in the Market for Reserves determines the
federal funds rate.
Interest rate on overnight loans of reserves from one bank to
another)
What happens to the quantity of reserves demanded by banks,
holding everything else constant, as the federal funds rate
changes?
Total Reserve= Excess reserves + Required Reserve
Excess reserves are insurance against deposit outflows
The cost of holding these is the interest rate that could have
been earned minus the interest rate that is paid on these
reserves, ior
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
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4
Demand in the Market for Reserves
Since the fall of 2008 the Fed has paid interest on reserves at a
level that is set at a fixed amount below the federal funds rate
target.
When the federal funds rate is above the rate paid on excess
reserves, ior, as the federal funds rate decreases, the
opportunity cost of holding excess reserves falls and the
quantity of reserves demanded rises.
Downward sloping demand curve that becomes flat (infinitely
elastic) at ior
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Supply in the Market for Reserves
Supply in the Market for Reserves have two components: non-
borrowed and borrowed reserves
Cost of borrowing from the Fed is the discount rate (id)
Borrowing from the Fed is a substitute for borrowing from other
banks
If iff < id, then banks will not borrow from the Fed and
borrowed reserves are zero
The supply curve will be vertical because total reserves equals
non-borrowed reserves (NBR)
As iff rises above id, banks will borrow more and more at id,
and re-lend at iff
The supply curve is horizontal (perfectly elastic) at id
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
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6
Figure 1 Equilibrium in the Market for Reserves
Rs
Rd
id
Federal
Funds Rate
Quantity of
Reserves, R
NBR
With excess supply of reserves, the federal funds rate falls to
With excess demand for reserves, the federal funds rate rises to
1
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
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7
How Changes in the Tools of Monetary Policy Affect the
Federal Funds Rate
Effects of open an market operation depends on whether the
supply curve initially intersects the demand curve in its
downward sloped section versus its flat section.
An open market purchase causes the federal funds rate to fall
whereas an open market sale causes the federal funds rate to
rise (when intersection occurs at the downward sloped section).
Open market operations have no effect on the federal funds rate
when intersection occurs at the flat section of the demand curve.
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
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8
Figure 2 Response to an Open Market Operation
Step 1. An open market purchase shifts the
supply curve to the right …
Step 2. causing the federal funds rate to fall.
Step 1. An open market purchase shifts the supply
curve to the right …
Step 2. but the federal funds rate cannot fall below
the interest rate paid on reserves.
(a) Supply curve initially intersects demand
curve in its downward-sloping section
(b) Supply curve initially intersects
demand curve in its flat section
1
2
Federal
Funds Rate
Federal
Funds Rate
Quantity of
Reserve, R
2
NBR1
NBR2
NBR2
NBR1
1
Quantity of
Reserves, R
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
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9
How Changes in the Tools of Monetary Policy Affect the
Federal Funds Rate
If the intersection of supply and demand occurs on the vertical
section of the supply curve, a change in the discount rate will
have no effect on the federal funds rate.
If the intersection of supply and demand occurs on the
horizontal section of the supply curve, a change in the discount
rate shifts that portion of the supply curve and the federal funds
rate may either rise or fall depending on the change in the
discount rate.
When the Fed raises reserve requirement, the federal funds rate
rises and when the Fed decreases reserve requirement, the
federal funds rate falls.
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
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10
Figure 3 Response to a Change in the Discount Rate
(a) No discount lending (BR = 0)
(b) Some discount lending (BR > 0)
Step 2. but does not lower the federal funds rate.
Step 1. Lowering the discount rate shifts the supply curve
down…
Step 1. Lowering the discount rate shifts the supply curve
down…
Step 2. and lowers the federal funds rate.
NBR
Quantity of Reserves, R
Federal Funds Rate
BR1
BR2
Quantity of Reserves, R
NBR
2
1
1
Federal Funds Rate
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
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11
Figure 4 Response to a Change in Required Reserves
NBR
Quantity of
Reserves, R
Federal
Funds Rate
id
ior
2
1
Step 1. Increasing the reserve requirement causes the demand
curve to shift to the right . . .
Step 2. and the federal funds rate rises.
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
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12
Figure 5 Response to a Change in the Interest Rate on Reserves
NBR
Quantity of
Reserves, R
NBR
Quantity of
Reserves, R
id
Federal
Funds Rate
id
Federal
Funds Rate
1
1
Step 2. leaves the federal funds rate unchanged.
Step 1. A rise in the interest rate on reserves from to
Step 1. A rise in the interest rate on reserves from to
Step 2. raises the federal funds
rate to
2
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Figure 6 How the Federal Reserve’s Operating Procedures Limit
Fluctuations in the Federal Funds Rate
Federal
Funds Rate
Quantity of Reserves, R
NBR*
Step 1. A rightward shift of the demand curve raises the federal
funds rate to a maximum of the discount rate.
Step 2. A leftward shift of the demand curve lowers the Fderal
funds rate to a minimum of the interest rate on reserves.
Supply and demand analysis of the market for reserves
illustrates how an important advantage of the Fed’s current
procedures for operating the discount window and paying
interest on reserves is that they limit fluctuations in the federal
funds rate.
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Conventional Monetary Policy Tools
During normal times, the Federal Reserve uses three tools of
monetary policy to control the money supply and interest rates,
and these are referred to as conventional monetary policy tools
open market operations,
discount lending, and
reserve requirements
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
15-‹#›
Open Market Operations
Dynamic open market operations
Intended to change the level of reserves and the monetary base
Defensive open market operations
Intended to offset movements in other factors (treasury deposits
and floats) that affect reserves and the monetary base
Open Market Operations are conducted by primary dealers-
specific set of dealers in government securities
TRAPS (Trading Room Automated Processing System)
Defensive open market operations are of two types
Repurchase agreements (repo): Fed purchases securities with an
agreement the seller will repurchase them in short period
Matched sale-purchase agreements: Fed sells securities and the
buyer agrees to sell them back to the Fed in the near future
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
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16
Discount Policy and the Lender of Last Resort
Discount window
The facility at which banks can borrow reserves from the
Federal Reserve
Backup source of liquidity for the federal funds market (market
where banks borrow from each other)
Three types of discount loans
1. Primary credit: standing lending facility
Lombard facility
Healthy banks can borrow all they want at very short maturity
2.Secondary credit is given to banks in financial trouble and
severe liquidity problems
3.Seasonal credit: seasonal borrowing
Lender of last resort to prevent financial panics
Creates moral hazard problem
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
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17
Reserve Requirements
Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act
of 1980 sets the
reserve requirement the same for all depository institutions.
3% of the first $48.3 million of checkable deposits; 10% of
checkable deposits over $48.3 million
The Fed can vary the 10% requirement between 8% to 14%.
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
15-‹#›
18
Relative Advantages of the Different Monetary Policy Tools
Open market operations are the dominant policy tool of the Fed
since it has complete control over the volume of transactions,
these operations are flexible and precise, easily reversed and
can be quickly implemented.
The discount rate is less well used since it is no longer binding
for most banks, can cause liquidity problems, and increases
uncertainty for banks. The discount window remains of
tremendous value given its ability to allow the Fed to act as a
lender of last resort.
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
15-‹#›
On the Failure of Conventional Monetary Policy Tools in a
Financial Panic
When the economy experiences a full-scale financial crisis,
conventional monetary policy tools cannot do the job, for two
reasons.
First, the financial system seizes up to such an extent that it
becomes unable to allocate capital to productive uses, and so
investment spending and the economy collapse.
Second, the negative shock to the economy can lead to the zero-
lower-bound problem
Central bank is unable to lower short-term interest rate further
because they hit a floor of zero
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
15-‹#›
Nonconventional Monetary Policy Tools During the Global
Financial Crisis
Liquidity provision: The Federal Reserve implemented
unprecedented increases in its lending facilities to provide
liquidity to the financial markets
Discount Window Expansion
Lowered discount rate to 0.50 basis point above the federal
funds rate in 2007 and to 0. 25 in March 2008
Term Auction Facility
Temporary loans made at rate set by competitive auctions
New Lending Programs: providing loans to financial institutions
outside banks
Example: Investment banks
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
15-‹#›
Nonconventional Monetary Policy Tools During the Global
Financial Crisis
Large-scale asset purchases: During the crisis the Fed started
three new asset purchase programs to lower interest rates for
particular types of credit:
Government Sponsored Entities Purchase Program
QE2
QE3
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
15-‹#›
Figure 7 The Expansion of the Federal Balance Sheet, 2007-
2014
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
15-‹#›
Monetary Policy Tools of the European Central Bank
Open market operations
Main refinancing operations
Weekly reverse transactions
Longer-term refinancing operations
Lending to banks
Marginal lending facility/marginal lending rate
Deposit facility
Reserve Requirements
2% of the total amount of checking deposits and other short-
term deposits
Pays interest on those deposits so cost of complying is low
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
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24
Chapter 16
The Conduct of Monetary Policy: Strategy and Tactics
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
15-‹#›
25
Preview
This chapter examines the goals of monetary policy and then
considers one of the most important strategies for the conduct
of monetary policy, inflation targeting
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
15-‹#›
Learning Objectives
Identify the six potential goals that monetary policymakers may
pursue.
Compare and contrast the advantages and disadvantages of
inflation targeting.
Identify the key changes made over time to the Federal Reserve
monetary policy strategy.
List the four lessons learned from the global financial crisis and
discuss what they mean to inflation targeting.
Describe and assess the four criteria for choosing a policy
instrument.
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
15-‹#›
The Price Stability Goal and the Nominal Anchor
Over the past few decades, policy makers throughout the world
have become increasingly aware of the social and economic
costs of inflation and more concerned with maintaining a stable
price level as a goal of economic policy.
The role of a nominal anchor: a nominal variable, such as the
inflation rate or the money supply, which ties down the price
level to achieve price stability
The time-inconsistency problem
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28
Other Goals of Monetary Policy
Five other goals are continually mentioned by central bank
officials when they discuss the objectives of monetary policy:
High employment and output stability
Economic growth
Stability of financial markets
Interest-rate stability
Stability in foreign exchange markets
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
15-‹#›
Should Price Stability Be the Primary Goal of Monetary Policy?
Hierarchical Versus Dual Mandates:
Hierarchical mandates put the goal of price stability first, and
then say that as long as it is achieved other goals can be
pursued
Dual mandates are aimed to achieve two coequal objectives:
price stability and maximum employment (output stability)
Price Stability as the Primary, Long-Run Goal of Monetary
Policy
Either type of mandate is acceptable as long as it
operates to make price stability the primary goal in the long run
but not the short run.
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15-‹#›
Inflation Targeting
Public announcement of medium-term numerical target for
inflation
Institutional commitment to price stability as the primary, long-
run goal of monetary policy and a commitment to achieve the
inflation goal
Information-inclusive approach in which many variables are
used in making decisions
Increased transparency of the strategy
Increased accountability of the central bank
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31
New Zealand (effective in 1990)
Inflation was brought down and remained within the target most
of the time.
Growth has generally been high and unemployment has come
down significantly.
Canada (1991)
Inflation decreased since 1991; some costs in term of
unemployment
United Kingdom (1992)
Inflation has been close to its target.
Growth has been strong and unemployment has been decreasing.
Inflation Targeting
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15-‹#›
32
Figure 1 Inflation Rates and Inflation Targets for New Zealand,
Canada, and the United Kingdom, 1980–2014
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33
Advantages:
Does not rely on one variable to achieve target
Easily understood
Reduces potential of falling in time-inconsistency trap
Stresses transparency and accountability
Disadvantages:
Delayed signaling
Too much rigidity
Potential for increased output fluctuations
Low economic growth during disinflation
Inflation Targeting
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
15-‹#›
34
The Evolution of the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy
Strategy
The United States has achieved excellent macroeconomic
performance (including low and stable inflation) until the onset
of the global financial crisis without using an explicit nominal
anchor such as an inflation target.
History:
Fed began to announce publicly targets for money supply
growth in 1975
Paul Volker (1979) focused more in nonborrowed reserves
Greenspan announced in July 1993 that the Fed would not use
any monetary aggregates as a guide for conducting monetary
policy
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
15-‹#›
The Evolution of the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy
Strategy
There is no explicit nominal anchor in the form of an overriding
concern for the Fed.
Forward looking behavior and periodic “preemptive strikes”
The goal is to prevent inflation from getting started.
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
15-‹#›
The Evolution of the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy
Strategy
Advantages
Uses many sources of information
Demonstrated success
Disadvantages
Lack of accountability
Inconsistent with democratic principles
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
15-‹#›
The Fed’s “Just Do It” Monetary Policy Strategy
Advantages of the Fed’s “Just Do It” Approach:
forward-looking behavior and stress on price stability also help
to discourage overly expansionary monetary policy, thereby
ameliorating the time-inconsistency problem
Disadvantages of the Fed’s “Just Do It” Approach:
lack of transparency; strong dependence on the preferences,
skills, and trustworthiness of the individuals in charge of the
central bank
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
15-‹#›
Lessons for Monetary Policy Strategy from the Global Financial
Crisis
Developments in the financial sector have a far greater impact
on economic activity than was earlier realized.
The zero-lower-bound on interest rates can be a serious
problem.
The cost of cleaning up after a financial crisis is very high.
Price and output stability do not ensure financial stability.
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
15-‹#›
Lessons for Monetary Policy Strategy from the Global Financial
Crisis
How should Central banks respond to asset price bubbles?
Asset-price bubble: pronounced increase in asset prices that
depart from fundamental values, which eventually burst.
Types of asset-price bubbles
Credit-driven bubbles
Subprime financial crisis
Bubbles driven solely by irrational exuberance
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
15-‹#›
Should central banks respond to bubbles?
Strong argument for not responding to bubbles driven by
irrational exuberance
Bubbles are easier to identify when asset prices and credit are
increasing rapidly at the same time.
Monetary policy should not be used to prick bubbles.
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
15-‹#›
Macropudential policy: regulatory policy to affect what is
happening in credit markets in the aggregate.
Monetary policy: Central banks and other regulators should not
have a laissez-faire attitude and let credit-driven bubbles
proceed without any reaction.
Should central banks respond to bubbles?
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
15-‹#›
Tactics: Choosing the Policy Instrument
Tools
Open market operation
Reserve requirements
Discount rate
Policy instrument (operating instrument)
Reserve aggregates
Interest rates
May be linked to an intermediate target
Interest-rate and aggregate targets are incompatible (must chose
one or the other).
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
15-‹#›
43
Figure 2 Linkages Between Central Bank Tools, Policy
Instruments, Intermediate Targets, and Goals of Monetary
Policy
Open Market Operations
Discount Policy
Reserve Requirements
Interest on Reserves
Large-scale Asset
Purchases
Forward Guidance
Tools of the
Central Bank
Policy
Instruments
Intermediate
Targets
Goals
Monetary Aggregates
(M1, M2)
Interest rates
(short-term and
long-term)
Price Stability
High Employment
Economic Growth
Financial Market Stability
Interest-Rate Stability
Foreign Exchange Market
Stability
Reserve Aggregates
(reserves, nonborrowed
reserves, monetary base,
nonborrowed base)
Interest rates
(short-term such as
federal funds rates)
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
15-‹#›
44
Figure 3 Result of Targeting on Nonborrowed Reserves
Step 1. A rightward or leftward shift
in the demand curve for reserves …
Quantity of
Reserves, R
Federal
Funds Rate
Rs
NBR*
Step 2. leads to fluctuations in the
federal funds rate between
Rd*
Rd′′
Rd′
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
15-‹#›
45
Figure 4 Result of Targeting on the Federal Funds Rate
Federal Funds
Rates Target,
id
ier
Federal
Funds Rate
Quantity of
Reserves, R
Step 1. A rightward or leftward shift in the demand curve for
reserves…
Step 2. lead the central bank to shift the supply curve of
reserves so that the federal rate does not change…
Step 3. with the result that non-borrowed reserves fluctuate
between NBR′ff and NBR′′ff.
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
15-‹#›
46
Criteria for Choosing the Policy Instrument
Observability and Measurability
Controllability
Predictable effect on Goals
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
15-‹#›
47
Tactics: The Taylor Rule
An inflation gap and an output gap
Stabilizing real output is an important concern
Output gap is an indicator of future inflation as shown by
Phillips curve
NAIRU
Rate of unemployment at which there is no tendency for
inflation to change
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
15-‹#›
48
Figure 5 The Taylor Rule for the Federal Funds Rate, 1970–
2014
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED database:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/.
© 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
15-‹#›
49
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Write an essay in which you contrast the principles of Realism and.docx

  • 1. Write an essay in which you contrast the principles of Realism and Naturalism. Select two works (one for each of the literary movements) that we have discussed in this course to illustrate your points of contrast. Be sure to refer to specific examples for support. Fully developed essay (intro., body, concl.) Be sure to refer to specific examples for support. You should have a minimum of 600 words, a maximum of 1000 words, in a standard font such as 12 point Times Roman or Arial. Remember, this is to be your perspective, supported by your own insight and notes—do not turn to authoritative sources outside the class. Since this is an essay, not a research paper with sources, documentation of the literature is unnecessary. I prefer the essays to be written in Microsoft Word format. List of works for each are below: Realism: The Death of Ivan Ilyiych by Leo Tolstoy Life on the Mississippi by Mark Twain Hedda Gabler by Henrik Ibsen Naturalism: “The Lost Phoebe” by Theodore Dreiser “Chickamauga” by Ambrose Bierce Textbooks: • The Norton Anthology of Western Literature. 9 th ed. Vol II. By Puchner et al. ISBN # 978-0-393-93363-5 • Any Freshman English handbook, collegiate dictionary, thesaurus. These can be print or digital, including websites. Chapter 15
  • 2. Tools of Monetary Policy © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› 1 Preview This chapter examines the tools used by the Federal Reserve System to control the money supply and interest rates © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› Learning Objectives Illustrate the market for reserves and demonstrate how changes in monetary policy can affect the federal funds rate. Summarize how conventional monetary policy tools are implemented and the advantages and limitations of each tool. Explain the key monetary policy tools that are used when conventional policy is no longer effective. Identify the distinctions and similarities between the monetary policy tools of the Federal Reserve and those of the European Central Bank. © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› The Market For Reserves and the Federal Funds Rate Demand and Supply in the Market for Reserves determines the federal funds rate.
  • 3. Interest rate on overnight loans of reserves from one bank to another) What happens to the quantity of reserves demanded by banks, holding everything else constant, as the federal funds rate changes? Total Reserve= Excess reserves + Required Reserve Excess reserves are insurance against deposit outflows The cost of holding these is the interest rate that could have been earned minus the interest rate that is paid on these reserves, ior © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› 4 Demand in the Market for Reserves Since the fall of 2008 the Fed has paid interest on reserves at a level that is set at a fixed amount below the federal funds rate target. When the federal funds rate is above the rate paid on excess reserves, ior, as the federal funds rate decreases, the opportunity cost of holding excess reserves falls and the quantity of reserves demanded rises. Downward sloping demand curve that becomes flat (infinitely elastic) at ior © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› Supply in the Market for Reserves Supply in the Market for Reserves have two components: non- borrowed and borrowed reserves
  • 4. Cost of borrowing from the Fed is the discount rate (id) Borrowing from the Fed is a substitute for borrowing from other banks If iff < id, then banks will not borrow from the Fed and borrowed reserves are zero The supply curve will be vertical because total reserves equals non-borrowed reserves (NBR) As iff rises above id, banks will borrow more and more at id, and re-lend at iff The supply curve is horizontal (perfectly elastic) at id © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› 6 Figure 1 Equilibrium in the Market for Reserves Rs Rd id Federal Funds Rate
  • 5. Quantity of Reserves, R NBR With excess supply of reserves, the federal funds rate falls to With excess demand for reserves, the federal funds rate rises to 1 © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› 7 How Changes in the Tools of Monetary Policy Affect the Federal Funds Rate Effects of open an market operation depends on whether the supply curve initially intersects the demand curve in its downward sloped section versus its flat section. An open market purchase causes the federal funds rate to fall whereas an open market sale causes the federal funds rate to rise (when intersection occurs at the downward sloped section).
  • 6. Open market operations have no effect on the federal funds rate when intersection occurs at the flat section of the demand curve. © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› 8 Figure 2 Response to an Open Market Operation Step 1. An open market purchase shifts the supply curve to the right … Step 2. causing the federal funds rate to fall. Step 1. An open market purchase shifts the supply curve to the right … Step 2. but the federal funds rate cannot fall below the interest rate paid on reserves. (a) Supply curve initially intersects demand curve in its downward-sloping section (b) Supply curve initially intersects demand curve in its flat section 1
  • 8. NBR2 NBR2 NBR1 1 Quantity of Reserves, R © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› 9 How Changes in the Tools of Monetary Policy Affect the Federal Funds Rate If the intersection of supply and demand occurs on the vertical section of the supply curve, a change in the discount rate will have no effect on the federal funds rate. If the intersection of supply and demand occurs on the horizontal section of the supply curve, a change in the discount rate shifts that portion of the supply curve and the federal funds
  • 9. rate may either rise or fall depending on the change in the discount rate. When the Fed raises reserve requirement, the federal funds rate rises and when the Fed decreases reserve requirement, the federal funds rate falls. © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› 10 Figure 3 Response to a Change in the Discount Rate (a) No discount lending (BR = 0) (b) Some discount lending (BR > 0) Step 2. but does not lower the federal funds rate. Step 1. Lowering the discount rate shifts the supply curve down… Step 1. Lowering the discount rate shifts the supply curve down… Step 2. and lowers the federal funds rate. NBR Quantity of Reserves, R
  • 10. Federal Funds Rate BR1 BR2 Quantity of Reserves, R NBR 2 1
  • 11. 1 Federal Funds Rate © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› 11 Figure 4 Response to a Change in Required Reserves NBR Quantity of Reserves, R
  • 12. Federal Funds Rate id ior 2 1 Step 1. Increasing the reserve requirement causes the demand curve to shift to the right . . . Step 2. and the federal funds rate rises. © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› 12
  • 13. Figure 5 Response to a Change in the Interest Rate on Reserves NBR Quantity of Reserves, R NBR Quantity of Reserves, R id Federal Funds Rate id
  • 14. Federal Funds Rate 1 1 Step 2. leaves the federal funds rate unchanged. Step 1. A rise in the interest rate on reserves from to Step 1. A rise in the interest rate on reserves from to Step 2. raises the federal funds rate to
  • 15. 2 © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› Figure 6 How the Federal Reserve’s Operating Procedures Limit Fluctuations in the Federal Funds Rate
  • 16. Federal Funds Rate Quantity of Reserves, R NBR* Step 1. A rightward shift of the demand curve raises the federal funds rate to a maximum of the discount rate. Step 2. A leftward shift of the demand curve lowers the Fderal funds rate to a minimum of the interest rate on reserves. Supply and demand analysis of the market for reserves illustrates how an important advantage of the Fed’s current procedures for operating the discount window and paying interest on reserves is that they limit fluctuations in the federal funds rate. © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› Conventional Monetary Policy Tools
  • 17. During normal times, the Federal Reserve uses three tools of monetary policy to control the money supply and interest rates, and these are referred to as conventional monetary policy tools open market operations, discount lending, and reserve requirements © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› Open Market Operations Dynamic open market operations Intended to change the level of reserves and the monetary base Defensive open market operations Intended to offset movements in other factors (treasury deposits and floats) that affect reserves and the monetary base Open Market Operations are conducted by primary dealers- specific set of dealers in government securities TRAPS (Trading Room Automated Processing System) Defensive open market operations are of two types Repurchase agreements (repo): Fed purchases securities with an agreement the seller will repurchase them in short period Matched sale-purchase agreements: Fed sells securities and the buyer agrees to sell them back to the Fed in the near future © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› 16 Discount Policy and the Lender of Last Resort Discount window
  • 18. The facility at which banks can borrow reserves from the Federal Reserve Backup source of liquidity for the federal funds market (market where banks borrow from each other) Three types of discount loans 1. Primary credit: standing lending facility Lombard facility Healthy banks can borrow all they want at very short maturity 2.Secondary credit is given to banks in financial trouble and severe liquidity problems 3.Seasonal credit: seasonal borrowing Lender of last resort to prevent financial panics Creates moral hazard problem © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› 17 Reserve Requirements Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act of 1980 sets the reserve requirement the same for all depository institutions. 3% of the first $48.3 million of checkable deposits; 10% of checkable deposits over $48.3 million The Fed can vary the 10% requirement between 8% to 14%. © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› 18
  • 19. Relative Advantages of the Different Monetary Policy Tools Open market operations are the dominant policy tool of the Fed since it has complete control over the volume of transactions, these operations are flexible and precise, easily reversed and can be quickly implemented. The discount rate is less well used since it is no longer binding for most banks, can cause liquidity problems, and increases uncertainty for banks. The discount window remains of tremendous value given its ability to allow the Fed to act as a lender of last resort. © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› On the Failure of Conventional Monetary Policy Tools in a Financial Panic When the economy experiences a full-scale financial crisis, conventional monetary policy tools cannot do the job, for two reasons. First, the financial system seizes up to such an extent that it becomes unable to allocate capital to productive uses, and so investment spending and the economy collapse. Second, the negative shock to the economy can lead to the zero- lower-bound problem Central bank is unable to lower short-term interest rate further because they hit a floor of zero © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› Nonconventional Monetary Policy Tools During the Global Financial Crisis Liquidity provision: The Federal Reserve implemented unprecedented increases in its lending facilities to provide
  • 20. liquidity to the financial markets Discount Window Expansion Lowered discount rate to 0.50 basis point above the federal funds rate in 2007 and to 0. 25 in March 2008 Term Auction Facility Temporary loans made at rate set by competitive auctions New Lending Programs: providing loans to financial institutions outside banks Example: Investment banks © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› Nonconventional Monetary Policy Tools During the Global Financial Crisis Large-scale asset purchases: During the crisis the Fed started three new asset purchase programs to lower interest rates for particular types of credit: Government Sponsored Entities Purchase Program QE2 QE3 © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› Figure 7 The Expansion of the Federal Balance Sheet, 2007- 2014 © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#›
  • 21. Monetary Policy Tools of the European Central Bank Open market operations Main refinancing operations Weekly reverse transactions Longer-term refinancing operations Lending to banks Marginal lending facility/marginal lending rate Deposit facility Reserve Requirements 2% of the total amount of checking deposits and other short- term deposits Pays interest on those deposits so cost of complying is low © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› 24 Chapter 16 The Conduct of Monetary Policy: Strategy and Tactics © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› 25 Preview This chapter examines the goals of monetary policy and then considers one of the most important strategies for the conduct of monetary policy, inflation targeting
  • 22. © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› Learning Objectives Identify the six potential goals that monetary policymakers may pursue. Compare and contrast the advantages and disadvantages of inflation targeting. Identify the key changes made over time to the Federal Reserve monetary policy strategy. List the four lessons learned from the global financial crisis and discuss what they mean to inflation targeting. Describe and assess the four criteria for choosing a policy instrument. © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› The Price Stability Goal and the Nominal Anchor Over the past few decades, policy makers throughout the world have become increasingly aware of the social and economic costs of inflation and more concerned with maintaining a stable price level as a goal of economic policy. The role of a nominal anchor: a nominal variable, such as the inflation rate or the money supply, which ties down the price level to achieve price stability The time-inconsistency problem © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#›
  • 23. 28 Other Goals of Monetary Policy Five other goals are continually mentioned by central bank officials when they discuss the objectives of monetary policy: High employment and output stability Economic growth Stability of financial markets Interest-rate stability Stability in foreign exchange markets © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› Should Price Stability Be the Primary Goal of Monetary Policy? Hierarchical Versus Dual Mandates: Hierarchical mandates put the goal of price stability first, and then say that as long as it is achieved other goals can be pursued Dual mandates are aimed to achieve two coequal objectives: price stability and maximum employment (output stability) Price Stability as the Primary, Long-Run Goal of Monetary Policy Either type of mandate is acceptable as long as it operates to make price stability the primary goal in the long run but not the short run. © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#›
  • 24. Inflation Targeting Public announcement of medium-term numerical target for inflation Institutional commitment to price stability as the primary, long- run goal of monetary policy and a commitment to achieve the inflation goal Information-inclusive approach in which many variables are used in making decisions Increased transparency of the strategy Increased accountability of the central bank © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› 31 New Zealand (effective in 1990) Inflation was brought down and remained within the target most of the time. Growth has generally been high and unemployment has come down significantly. Canada (1991) Inflation decreased since 1991; some costs in term of unemployment United Kingdom (1992) Inflation has been close to its target. Growth has been strong and unemployment has been decreasing. Inflation Targeting © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#›
  • 25. 32 Figure 1 Inflation Rates and Inflation Targets for New Zealand, Canada, and the United Kingdom, 1980–2014 © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› 33 Advantages: Does not rely on one variable to achieve target Easily understood Reduces potential of falling in time-inconsistency trap Stresses transparency and accountability Disadvantages: Delayed signaling Too much rigidity Potential for increased output fluctuations Low economic growth during disinflation Inflation Targeting © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› 34 The Evolution of the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Strategy The United States has achieved excellent macroeconomic
  • 26. performance (including low and stable inflation) until the onset of the global financial crisis without using an explicit nominal anchor such as an inflation target. History: Fed began to announce publicly targets for money supply growth in 1975 Paul Volker (1979) focused more in nonborrowed reserves Greenspan announced in July 1993 that the Fed would not use any monetary aggregates as a guide for conducting monetary policy © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› The Evolution of the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Strategy There is no explicit nominal anchor in the form of an overriding concern for the Fed. Forward looking behavior and periodic “preemptive strikes” The goal is to prevent inflation from getting started. © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› The Evolution of the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Strategy Advantages Uses many sources of information Demonstrated success Disadvantages Lack of accountability
  • 27. Inconsistent with democratic principles © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› The Fed’s “Just Do It” Monetary Policy Strategy Advantages of the Fed’s “Just Do It” Approach: forward-looking behavior and stress on price stability also help to discourage overly expansionary monetary policy, thereby ameliorating the time-inconsistency problem Disadvantages of the Fed’s “Just Do It” Approach: lack of transparency; strong dependence on the preferences, skills, and trustworthiness of the individuals in charge of the central bank © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› Lessons for Monetary Policy Strategy from the Global Financial Crisis Developments in the financial sector have a far greater impact on economic activity than was earlier realized. The zero-lower-bound on interest rates can be a serious problem. The cost of cleaning up after a financial crisis is very high. Price and output stability do not ensure financial stability. © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#›
  • 28. Lessons for Monetary Policy Strategy from the Global Financial Crisis How should Central banks respond to asset price bubbles? Asset-price bubble: pronounced increase in asset prices that depart from fundamental values, which eventually burst. Types of asset-price bubbles Credit-driven bubbles Subprime financial crisis Bubbles driven solely by irrational exuberance © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› Should central banks respond to bubbles? Strong argument for not responding to bubbles driven by irrational exuberance Bubbles are easier to identify when asset prices and credit are increasing rapidly at the same time. Monetary policy should not be used to prick bubbles. © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› Macropudential policy: regulatory policy to affect what is happening in credit markets in the aggregate. Monetary policy: Central banks and other regulators should not have a laissez-faire attitude and let credit-driven bubbles proceed without any reaction. Should central banks respond to bubbles?
  • 29. © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› Tactics: Choosing the Policy Instrument Tools Open market operation Reserve requirements Discount rate Policy instrument (operating instrument) Reserve aggregates Interest rates May be linked to an intermediate target Interest-rate and aggregate targets are incompatible (must chose one or the other). © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› 43 Figure 2 Linkages Between Central Bank Tools, Policy Instruments, Intermediate Targets, and Goals of Monetary Policy Open Market Operations Discount Policy Reserve Requirements Interest on Reserves Large-scale Asset Purchases Forward Guidance Tools of the Central Bank Policy Instruments
  • 30. Intermediate Targets Goals Monetary Aggregates (M1, M2) Interest rates (short-term and long-term) Price Stability High Employment Economic Growth Financial Market Stability Interest-Rate Stability Foreign Exchange Market Stability Reserve Aggregates (reserves, nonborrowed reserves, monetary base, nonborrowed base) Interest rates (short-term such as federal funds rates) © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› 44 Figure 3 Result of Targeting on Nonborrowed Reserves Step 1. A rightward or leftward shift
  • 31. in the demand curve for reserves … Quantity of Reserves, R Federal Funds Rate Rs NBR* Step 2. leads to fluctuations in the federal funds rate between
  • 32. Rd* Rd′′ Rd′ © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› 45 Figure 4 Result of Targeting on the Federal Funds Rate Federal Funds Rates Target, id
  • 33. ier Federal Funds Rate Quantity of Reserves, R Step 1. A rightward or leftward shift in the demand curve for reserves… Step 2. lead the central bank to shift the supply curve of reserves so that the federal rate does not change… Step 3. with the result that non-borrowed reserves fluctuate between NBR′ff and NBR′′ff. © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› 46
  • 34. Criteria for Choosing the Policy Instrument Observability and Measurability Controllability Predictable effect on Goals © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› 47 Tactics: The Taylor Rule An inflation gap and an output gap Stabilizing real output is an important concern Output gap is an indicator of future inflation as shown by Phillips curve NAIRU Rate of unemployment at which there is no tendency for inflation to change © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› 48 Figure 5 The Taylor Rule for the Federal Funds Rate, 1970– 2014 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED database: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/.
  • 35. © 2016 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15-‹#› 49 2 ff i 1 ff i or i ff i * . ff i * . * ff i 1 d R 1 ff i 2 ff i d