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Webinar 3rd feb 2014 with core team sfb cads final
- 2. SF BAY CLIMATE ADAPTATION DECISION SUPPORT ● CORE TEAM ORIENTATION Today’s Agenda • Introductions • Motivation & Purpose • Approach • Team Structure • Decision (Re‐)Framing • Project Timeline • Questions & Discussion
- 3. SF BAY CLIMATE ADAPTATION DECISION SUPPORT ● CORE TEAM ORIENTATION Leadership Team • Project Coordinators, San Francisco Bay Joint Venture Christina Sloop Beth Huning • Structured Decision Making Coaches Brady Mattsson, Independent Contractor Jonathan Cummings, University of Vermont • Professional Facilitator: Will Murray, Indep. Contractor • Project Advisor: Giselle Block, FWS Inventory & Monitoring
- 4. SF BAY CLIMATE ADAPTATION DECISION SUPPORT ● CORE TEAM ORIENTATION Tentative Core Advisory Team (13) Andy Gunther BAECCC Executive Coordinator Coordinator USFWS-SFB National Wildlife Refuge Project Leader Manager Point Blue Conservation Science Project Scientist Ecologist Army Crops of Engineers Project Planner Manager USGS Northern Prairie Decision Analyst Remote SDM advisor Karen Taylor* CA Dept. Fish & Wildlife Associate Wildlife Biologist Biologist Karen Thorne* USGS Research Ecologist Ecologist Laura Valoppi* USGS South Bay Salt Pond Restor. Lead Scientist Biologist Letitia Grenier CA State Coastal Conservancy Bayland Goals Update Coordinator Biologist Matt Gerhart* CA State Coastal Conservancy SF Bay Program Manager Manager Nadine Peterson* CA State Coastal Conservancy Deputy Director Manager Steve Goldbeck* Bay Conserv. & Develop. Comm. Deputy Directpr Manager Valary Bloom* FWS Endangered Species Branch Fish and Wildlife Biologist Manager Anne Morkill Grant Ballard/Sam Veloz Jaime O’Halloran* Jill Gannon * = 2011 Structured Decision Making Workshop participant 12:40
- 5. SF BAY CLIMATE ADAPTATION DECISION SUPPORT ● CORE TEAM ORIENTATION Today’s Agenda • Introductions • Motivation & Purpose • Approach • Team Structure • Decision (Re‐)Framing • Project Timeline • Questions & Discussion
- 6. SF BAY CLIMATE ADAPTATION DECISION SUPPORT ● CORE TEAM ORIENTATION Motivation • Uncertain climate impacts • Tidal Marsh Recovery Plan 2010 Draft • NFWF SF Bay Inititative • 2011 Structured Decision Making (SDM) Workshop • Baylands Ecosystem Habitat Goals Update (BEHGU) • Need optimal, actionable strategies % Allocation 100 80 60 40 20 0 2010 2020 Marsh migration Wildlife adaptation 2030 2040 2050 Climate restoration Status quo
- 7. SF BAY CLIMATE ADAPTATION DECISION SUPPORT ● CORE TEAM ORIENTATION Purpose Identify optimal, actionable conservation and climate adaptation strategies across space & time in the SF Bay • Engage broader set of partners • Address 2050‐2100 time horizon • Consider multiple focal species & environs • Build from BEHGU subregional strategies 12:45
- 9. SF BAY CLIMATE ADAPTATION DECISION SUPPORT ● CORE TEAM ORIENTATION Today’s Agenda • Introductions • Motivation & Purpose • Approach • Team Structure • Decision (Re‐)Framing • Project Timeline & Deliverables • Questions & Discussion
- 10. SF BAY CLIMATE ADAPTATION DECISION SUPPORT ● CORE TEAM ORIENTATION Approach • Collaborative problem solving Engage advisory team Re‐frame the decision problem Use SDM to identify optimal strategies • Make actionable recommendations to managers, coordinators, and researchers BEHGU recommendations are starting point
- 12. SF BAY CLIMATE ADAPTATION DECISION SUPPORT ● CORE TEAM ORIENTATION Problem ` 1 Hammond et al. 2002. Smart choices: a practical guide to making better life decisions. [BOOK] Objectives 2 Runge et al. 2011. An overview of structured decision making, revised edition. [ONLINE VIDEOS] Alternatives 3 Consequences 3 Trade‐offs 4 Decide & take action Conroy & Peterson 2013. Decision Making in Natural Resource Management: A Structured, Adaptive Approach. [BOOK]
- 13. SF BAY CLIMATE ADAPTATION DECISION SUPPORT ● CORE TEAM ORIENTATION Workshop in May: Goals What are optimal, actionable conservation and climate adaptation strategies across space & time in SF Bay? • Engage broader set of partners • Account for differences among subregions Management costs and constraints Environments and species Human benefits Climate change impacts
- 14. SF BAY CLIMATE ADAPTATION DECISION SUPPORT ● CORE TEAM ORIENTATION Workshop in May: Goals Ctd. What are optimal, actionable conservation and climate adaptation strategies across space & time in SF Bay? • Consider multiple focal species & environments • Address 2050‐2100 time horizon • Build from BEHGU subregional strategies • Develop initial adaptive management framework 1:00
- 16. SF BAY CLIMATE ADAPTATION DECISION SUPPORT ● CORE TEAM ORIENTATION Today’s Agenda • Introductions • Motivation & Purpose • Approach • Team Structure • Decision (Re‐)Framing • Project Timeline & Deliverables • Questions & Discussion
- 17. SF BAY CLIMATE ADAPTATION DECISION SUPPORT ● CORE TEAM ORIENTATION Team Structure Spring 2014 Advisory Team by Subregion • Suisun Bay • Central Bay • South Bay Leadership • North Bay Team Fall 2014 San Pablo Bay Refuge SDM Workshop Team Core Team
- 18. SF BAY CLIMATE ADAPTATION DECISION SUPPORT ● CORE TEAM ORIENTATION Advisory Team: North Bay (8) • Anne Morkill SF Bay National Wildlife Refuge Complex • Don Brubaker San Pablo Bay NWR • Giselle Block* FWS Inventory and Monitoring Program • Jordan Wellwood Richardson Bay Audubon • Joy Albertson SF Bay National Wildlife Refuge Complex • Julian Meisler Sonoma Land Trust • Karen Taylor* CA Dept. Fish & Wildlife • Meg Marriot San Pablo Bay NWR * = Core Team member
- 20. SF BAY CLIMATE ADAPTATION DECISION SUPPORT ● CORE TEAM ORIENTATION Advisory Team: Central Bay •Brad Olson East Bay Regional Parks •Kristen Ward NPS‐Crissy Field/Presidio
- 21. SF BAY CLIMATE ADAPTATION DECISION SUPPORT ● CORE TEAM ORIENTATION Advisory Team: South Bay (10) • Anne Morkill (N)* SF Bay NWR Complex • Cat Burns/David Thompson SFBBO • John Bourgeois Coastal Conservancy • Laura Valoppi* SBSPRP ‐ USGS • Brian Fulfrost Brian Fulfrost & Associates • John Krause DFW • John Callaway University of San Francisco • Joy Albertson (N) SF Bay NWR Complex • Peggy Olofson Invasive Spartina Project • Jeremy Lowe ESA‐PWA N = Also represents North Bay * = Core team member
- 22. SF BAY CLIMATE ADAPTATION DECISION SUPPORT ● CORE TEAM ORIENTATION Other Invited Participants (19) • Andy Gunther BAECCC • Judy Kelly SF Estuary Partnership ‐ ABAG • Brigid McCormack Audubon California • Kelley Higgason Gulf of the Farallones ‐ OCOF • Bruce Wolfe SF Bay Region. Water Qual. Board • Marc Holmes The Bay Institute • David Lewis Save the Bay • Pat Rutten NOAA Restoration Center • Dean Kwasn USDA NRDC • Rob Doster FWS Mig Birds • Diane Ross‐Leech PG&E ‐‐ Habitat Protection • Tom Kimball USGS WERC • Jeff McCreary Ducks Unlimited • Jim Kelly • John Donelly CA Wildlife Conservation Board • John Klochak FWS Coastal Program • Judy Drexler SFEI USGS CA Water Science Center * = Core Team member 1:10
- 23. SF BAY CLIMATE ADAPTATION DECISION SUPPORT ● CORE TEAM ORIENTATION Questions •Input on participant list? •More reps for Suisun? •Additional Central Bay participants? •Anne Morkill in N‐Bay – Joy Albertson in S‐Bay (vice versa?)? 1:15
- 25. SF BAY CLIMATE ADAPTATION DECISION SUPPORT ● CORE TEAM ORIENTATION Today’s Agenda • Introductions • Motivation & Purpose • Approach • Team Structure • Decision (Re‐)Framing • Project Timeline & Deliverables • Questions & Discussion
- 26. SF BAY CLIMATE ADAPTATION DECISION SUPPORT ● CORE TEAM ORIENTATION 2011 SFB SDM Workshop • Optimal Bay‐wide strategy to conserve ecosystem integrity, CA Clapper Rail, and human benefits associated with tidal marshes: % Allocation 100 80 60 40 20 0 2010 2020 Marsh migration Wildlife adaptation 2030 2040 2050 Climate restoration Status quo • Robust to uncertainties: storms, budget, etc.
- 27. SF BAY CLIMATE ADAPTATION DECISION SUPPORT ● CORE TEAM ORIENTATION Climate Restoration • Engineering solutions for future restorations Retrofit ongoing or past projects Enhance historic marsh • Build levees bayward with gradual slope • Flood control & water treatment projects • Use upland fill to raise marsh elevations • Restore marshes with most accretion potential
- 28. SF BAY CLIMATE ADAPTATION DECISION SUPPORT ● CORE TEAM ORIENTATION Climate Restoration • Engineering solutions for future restorations Retrofit ongoing or past projects Enhance historic marsh. • Build levees bayward with gradual slope • Flood control & water treatment projects • Use upland fill to raise marsh elevations • Restore marshes with most accretion potential
- 29. SF BAY CLIMATE ADAPTATION DECISION SUPPORT ● CORE TEAM ORIENTATION 2011 SDM Workshop: Next Steps • Engage broader set of stakeholders & scientists • Revisit model structure & inputs • Consider additional focal species & tidal zones • Address finer, actionable spatial resolution • Explore additional allocation options • Expand response horizon to year 2100
- 30. SF BAY CLIMATE ADAPTATION DECISION SUPPORT ● CORE TEAM ORIENTATION Decision Re‐Framing What are optimal, actionable conservation and climate adaptation strategies across space & time in SF Bay? • Multiple focal species & environments • Subregional‐scale action alternatives • Include 2050‐2100 response horizon • Linked, adaptive decisions through time
- 31. SF BAY CLIMATE ADAPTATION DECISION SUPPORT ● CORE TEAM ORIENTATION Focal Species & Environments • Estuarine environments as defined in Bayland Goals Update & SF Bay JV Implementation Plan • Focal species of conservation concern with contrasting habitat needs California Clapper Rail Salt Marsh Harvest Mouse Other?
- 34. SF BAY CLIMATE ADAPTATION DECISION SUPPORT ● CORE TEAM ORIENTATION Today’s Agenda • Introductions • Motivation & Purpose • Approach • Team Structure • Decision (Re‐)Framing • Project Timeline & Deliverables • Questions & Discussion
- 35. SF BAY CLIMATE ADAPTATION DECISION SUPPORT ● CORE TEAM ORIENTATION Project Timeline • August ‘13 – January ‘14: Leadership Team Initial decision framing Refining approach & list of partners Scheduling webinars & workshop • February 2014: Outreach & decision framing Core team: orientation webinar Workshop advisory teams: individual calls
- 38. SF BAY CLIMATE ADAPTATION DECISION SUPPORT ● CORE TEAM ORIENTATION Project Timeline: Deliverables • SDM webinars – presentations (April 2014) • Report 1: optimal, actionable climate adaptation strategies among subregions; decision tool (Aug 2014) • Report 2: optimal, actionable climate adaptation strategies for San Pablo Bay NWR; decision tool (July 2015) • Presentations on climate adaptation strategies (May 2015) • Final report as manuscript (Aug 2015) 1:45
- 43. SF BAY CLIMATE ADAPTATION DECISION SUPPORT ● CORE TEAM ORIENTATION Subregional‐Scale Action Alternatives • Alternative annual allocations among categories of actions for each subregion • Categories of actions modified from 2011 SDM Workshop to be actionable • Example categories: Manage existing protected areas for change Protect adjacent uplands for upward migration Manage individual species
- 45. SF BAY CLIMATE ADAPTATION DECISION SUPPORT ● CORE TEAM ORIENTATION Hypothetical Decision Analysis 60 40 20 0 2010 100 80 100 Suisun Bay % Allocation 80 80 2030 2050 2070 Central Bay 60 40 20 0 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 80 North Bay 60 40 20 0 2010 100 2090 % Allocation % Allocation 100 % Allocation Expected Conservation Benefit 100 80 2030 2050 2070 2090 2070 2090 South Bay 60 40 20 0 2010 60 40 20 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 … Allocation Strategy Number How to adapt strategies through time with new information? 2030 2050
- 46. SF BAY CLIMATE ADAPTATION DECISION SUPPORT ● CORE TEAM ORIENTATION Satellite Advisory Team (38) •Larry Wyckoff CA DFW •John Bourgeois Coastal Conserv. •Marc Holmes The Bay Institute •John Callaway Univ. San Francisco •Matt Ferner China Camp ‐ Rush Ranch San Pablo Bay NWR •Ben Wallace Solano Land Trust •Jeremy Lowe •Brad Olson E Bay Reg. Parks •Brian Fulfrost … and Associates •Brigid McCormack Audubon California ESA‐PWA •John Donelly CA WCS •Meg Marriot •Bruce Wolfe SF Bay RWQB •John Klochak FWS Coastal Prog. •Meredith Williams SFEI •Cat Burns SFBBO •John Krause CA DFW •Mike Vasey SF Bay NERR •Catherine Burns SFBBO •Jordan Wellwood •Pat Rutten NOAA •David Lewis Save the Bay •Joy Albertson SF Bay NWR Comp. •Peggy Olofson Spartina Project •Dean Kwasney USDA NRDC •Judy Drexler USGS CWSC •Rob Doster FWS Mig Birds •Diane Ross‐Leech PG&E ‐‐ Habitat •Judy Kelly ABAG •Sam Veloz Point Blue •Don Brubaker San Pablo Bay NWR •Julian Meisler Sonoma Land Trust •Steve Chapell Suisun RCD •Ellie Cohen Point Blue •Kelley Higgason OCOF •Tom Kimball USGS WERC •Jeff McCreary Ducks Unlimited •Kristen Ward Rich. Bay Audubon NPS