The document discusses scenario planning and provides examples. It recommends identifying a problem, the decision to be made, and relevant factors to build three future scenarios. This allows preparation for different situations like Royal Dutch Shell did through diversification during the 1970s Oil Crisis, while Exxon lacked planning for the Exxon Valdez oil spill disaster.
2. Thinking of different scenarios enables
preparation for the various situations.
Planting one strawberry instead of a whole field.
Having only one solution might be a problem.
3.
4. Royal Dutch Shell example:
1970’s Oil Crisis.
Diversification of business and investment.
Investments in Coal and Metal.
Expanding into new ventures (Skills).
Helped Shell increase productivity during tough times and
moved them from 5th
largest producer to 2nd
largest.
5. Exxon / Mobil example:
Exxon Valdez oil tanker spill
No plan for such disaster
No plan from Exxon, Alaska, United States.
Spilled 53 million gallons of oil and cost 500 million dollars.
6. Modifying the business plan for your life:
1) Identifying a particular problem.
2) State a particular decision that has to be made.
3) Identifying the factors.
4) Build three future scenarios based on factors.
5) Search for opportunities within each scenario.
7. 1) Problem: Buying a car to get to school.
2) Particular decision: A new car or used car?
3) Factors: What type of car do I need, gas mileage,
maintenance and what is my budget.
4) Three Scenarios based on factors:
Scenario 1: I can’t really afford a car right now.
Scenario 2: I buy a cheap used car that might have maintenance
problems and is ok on mileage.
Scenario 3: I buy a new car compact car that is more expensive
but great on gas and maintenance free.
5) Searching for the best scenario: ?
8. 1) Identifying a particular problem.
2) State a particular decision that has to be
made.
3) Identifying the factors.
4) Build three future scenarios based on factors.
5) Search for opportunities within each scenario.
