Corona Virus Pandemic has brought acceleration to our lifestyle- which become more digital savvy, more health conscious and more environmental conscious.
This new lifestyle predicted to become a new normal. And we should prepare ourselves.
13. GLOBAL RECESSION
by Kiki Verico – Lecturer in FEB UI
• Covid-19 will weaken the world economy. The Chinese
economy, a large country whose economy always grows above
the world growth average, is expected to grow below 6 percent.
• World economic growth, which has been weakening since
2019, will be weaker, from 2.9 percent to 2.4 percent (OECD,
March 2). According to this report, in general countries will
experience a decline in growth ranging from -0.1 percent to -
1.1 percent.
• Transmission of the decline in economic growth starts from the
decline in imports needed for exports and slowing the flow of
long-term foreign investment that affects economic growth.
• The decline in Indonesian exports was greatly affected by the
slowdown in the Chinese economy because, apart from being
the main national export destination country, China is one of
the world’s largest importers for the prima donna of national
exports, such as oil and gas, palm oil and natural rubber.
14. GLOBAL RECESSION
by Kiki Verico – Lecturer in FEB UI
• Never before, except during the world war, has the massive world economic
pressure on the supply side. The core of the supply side is production, and the
core of production is HUMAN RESOURCES. It can be imagined, when the core of
the core of economic growth, namely human resources, is exposed to the threat of
viruses, all economic activities, from processing raw materials, production of semi-
finished and finished goods, goods transportation services, physical investment, to
the mobility of people, will decrease. Artificial intelligence technology is not able
to run when the real intelligence, namely humans, is facing a problem.
• In terms of tourism, the closure of several world production centers and the delay
in foreign investment will reduce the number of business trips and erode the
profits of the transportation, hotel and restaurant businesses. In 2019, tourists
from China are the biggest foreign tourists in Indonesia with 2.1 million visits or
around 14 percent of the total foreign tourists entering Indonesia.
15. GLOBAL RECESSION – Potential Next for Indonesia
by Kiki Verico – Lecturer FEB UI
• Covid-19 simultaneously reduces the flow of goods, services, and people.
From an economic standpoint, what should be done first if the threat of
this virus can be overcome? The answer is INVESTMENT. Why? Because
investment drives production activities, such as exports, imports, absorbs
employment, and creates a flow of business travel.
• When the world production network returns to normal, Indonesia has the
potential to receive shifts in world investment, such as for textiles,
clothing, footwear, jewelry, bicycles, automotive parts, and electronics.
• A valuable lesson from Covid-19 is that Indonesia must immediately
improve its capabilities to become a large part of the world production
network for intermediate goods, upstream industries such as chemicals,
and machinery for downstream industries.
16. INDONESIA as POTENTIAL
MANUFACTURE BASED COUNTRY
• The role of the government is very important to encourage INVESTMENT
that supports the transformation of the national economy.
• The contribution of manufacturing value added to the national economy is
expected to return above 25 percent with the export-oriented
manufacturing sector able to grow higher than the national economic
growth.
• When the manufacturing sector is able to become a driver of economic
growth and a source of foreign exchange, the national economy will grow
faster than the current growth rate. Ultimately, this exposure reminds us
that the wheels of the Indonesian economy must continue to move
forward.
19. Think of a recession like a sharp curve in a race, crisis is the best time for abrandto
overtakecompetitors. However it requires more skills and courage than the straightaways.
The best drivers (a.k.a winning companies) will typically do the following:
Apply the brakes just ahead
of thecurve
Turn hard toward the apex of
the curve
Accelerate hard out of the
curve
They take out excess costs
Identify the short list of
projects that will form the
next businessmodel)
Spend and hire before
marketshave rebounded
March,2020
Q2,2020
Q3/Q4,2020
WINNING COMPANIES BEHVE
DIFFERENTLY
21. Preparing: Reborn of QCDS
More Quality,
More Value
LessCost,
More Productivity
Offline Delivery,
Online Transaction
Online Service,
Offline Transaction
22.
23.
24.
25.
26. Hygiene Practice
Need to Engage
Frequently with Doctor
Clean Air – Free
Pollution
THE NEW NORMAL OF STAY AT HOME AND HEALTH
CONSCIOUS FREAK LIFESTYLE WILL CHANGE THE PEOPLE
BEHAVIOR AND WILL IMPACT ON THE NEW SERVICES
27. For TRAVELING
For WORK / Meeting
For SHOPPING
THESE ARE PREDICTED MAIN REASONS PEOPLE WANT TO GO OUT FROM HOME
38. ONLINE SCHOOL
REQUIRES:
Platform, Teachers (from all over the
world), Payment Ticket Gateway,
Server, IT Software Developer, Admin
CHATBOT, New Regulations, Internet
Security, IT Hardware Producers,
Studio Shooting Room
NO MORE: School Building? Printed
Books?
39.
40.
41. INDONESIA IMPORT COMMODOTIES
Articles made from iron or steel were the fastest-growing among Indonesia’s top 10 import
categories, up by 55.6% from 2017 to 2018.
In second place was machinery including computers (up by 35.8%) followed by Indonesia’s imports
under the vehicles and electrical machinery and equipment categories both of which rose 30.8%
year over year.
Please note that the results listed above are at the 2-digit Harmonized Tariff System code level.
Information presented under other virtual folder tabs is at the more granular 4-digit level.
At the more detailed Harmonized Tariff System (HTS) code level, Indonesia’s highest value imported
products are processed petroleum oils followed by crude oil, mobile phones, automobile parts or
accessories, petroleum gases, wheat, computers including optical readers then gold.
OIL
USD 31.6 Billion
16.7%
MACHINERY
USD 27.2 Billion
14.4%
Electric Device
USD 21.4 Billion
11.4%
IRON STEEL
USD 10.2 Billion
5.4%
CHEMICAL
USD 6.9 Billion
3.7%
VEHICLE
USD 8.1 Billion
4.3%
FOOD
USD 3.1 Billion
1.6%
42. INDONESIA EXPORT COMMODOTIES
OIL & COAL
USD 42 Billion
23.3%
MACHINERY
USD 27.2 Billion
14.4%
GEMS
USD 5.6 Billion
3.1%
IRON STEEL
USD 5.8 Billion
3.3%
RUBBER
USD 6.4 Billion
3.5%
VEHICLE
USD 7.6 Billion
4.2%
ANIMAL FAT
USD 20.3 Billion
11.3%
FISH
SEAFOOD
USD 3 Billion
WOOD
USD 4 Billion
WEAR
USD 3.7 Billion
How many are Raw Material vs.
Finished Goods?
What do we have else that can be
manufactured and exported?
61. Metalurgist /
Product
Designer Farmer 4.0
Biologist /
Pharmacist DOCTOR New Energy
THE FUTURE AFTER CORONA
DATA
ANALYST
IT TECH
DEVELOPER
STRATEGIST BANKER /
Investment
ACOUNTANT /
TAX Consultant
63. CONTENT /
Artist
PILOT HOTEL Tour Destination
Guide
Travel Vehicle
Chef & RestoBeautician TeacherGym Instructor
Cleaning
Expert Service
WHEN THINGS GO NEW
NORMAL AFTER CORONA