This document summarizes recent weather modification studies and activities in China. It discusses China's frequent meteorological disasters and the large economic losses they cause. It then provides details on China's extensive weather modification program, including the activities of over 37,000 practitioners operating thousands of artillery launchers, rockets, and aircraft across most of China's provinces. Recent studies discussed include new Doppler radar networks, cloud modeling research, and assessment of regional cloud water resources and precipitation enhancement potential. Successful case studies enhancing rainfall in Cuba in 2006 are also mentioned.
1. Recent Studies and Activities on
Weather Modification in China
Dr. Zhanyu YAO
Key Lab. for Cloud Physics & Weather Modification
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences
yaozy@cams.cma.gov.cn
2. 1. Backgroung
2. Recent Status of Weather
Modification Activities in China
3. Recent Studies on Weather
Modification in China
4. Successful cases on precipitation
enhancement in Cuba in July 2006
5. Prize on WM we won in 2006
Outline
4. • China is located in the east of the Asian
continent, has a land area of about 9.69.6
millionmillion km2, and is the third-largest country
in the world.
• China is the most populous country in
the world, with 1.3 billion1.3 billion people at the end
of 2001, one fifth of the world’s total.
CHINA
5. A country with frequent natural disasters
Drought High Temp. Torrential
rain
Strong wind
Dust StormThunder storm FloodEl Nino
Over 70% are meteorological disasters
6. Major Weather/Climate Events in 2003
The mean precipitation in 2003 was 626.7 mm,
which was 22.6 mm more than normal;The
mean annual temperature was 9.9℃, which
was 0.7℃higher than normal, a fifth warmest
year since 1961.
Sand/Dust
Storms
Late & weak
Monsoon
Droughts
Storm surge,
heavy rainfall
Flood
Emergency
Low temp,
rainy
Wide-spread
Floods
Heat Wave &
Forest fireGeological
disasters
Strong wind &
dusty weather
avalanche
Forest
Fires
Excessive
Rainfall
Warm but
higher
rainfall
Severe persistent
droughts
Hit by 6 typhoons
Source: CMA
Forest
Fire
Thunder &
Lightening
disasters
7. Meteorological Disasters in China
Caused Losses (in 100M RMB/13M US$)
614
1216
854
994
1876 1863
2822
1964
2978
1962 2031
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
9. From 1990 to 2000
♦ 59 million hectares of farmlands were, on
average, affected by drought.
♦ 26 million hectares of farmlands were
suffered from bad drought.
♦ Grain loss due to drought amounted to
62% of total grain loss.
The most serious meteorological
disaster in China is extensive drought
11. Global flesh water demand in 21th century
6 billion people consume 54% global fresh water presently.
It will reach 70% in 2025 just due to population increase.
The World Vision Report
12. 0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Alert line for lack of water
7342
2200
1760
China Ave. in 2030China Ave. Now
1700
m3/person
Would Ave.
Average fresh water occupancy per personAverage fresh water occupancy per person
in China is less thanin China is less than ¼¼ that of the worldthat of the world
13. 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
年平均降
水量
世界
亚洲
中国
中国
西部
•• WorldWorld 800mm800mm
•• AsiaAsia 740mm740mm
•• ChinaChina 648.4mm648.4mm
19%19% less than thatless than that
of the worldof the world
12%12% less than thatless than that
of Asiaof Asia
•• Northwest ChinaNorthwest China
242mm242mm
7.3%7.3% that of Chinathat of China
Yearly average precipitation
14. Distribution of yearly average precipitation (1956-2000)
>1800mm
<25mm
Uneven distribution of precipitation by space
results in uneven distribution of water resource by space
15. Water availability &Water availability &
distributiondistribution --ChinaChina
Source:
IIASA
Uneven distribution of precipitation by time
results in uneven distribution of water resource by time
16.
17. Another serious meteorological
disaster in China is hailstorm
From 1990 to 2000,
♦ 1.7 million hectares of farmlands were,
on average, affected by hailstorms.
♦ Hailstorms cause serious economic
losses.
23. 2.1 General situation
The State Council
adopted the
“Regulations
on Administration
of Weather
Modification” on
March 13, 2002
24. ♦ 50 years Since 1958
Weather modification history
in China
25. • to organize, coordinate and guide the
weather modification activities including
operation, demonstration and research
programs throughout the country
Responsibilities of China
Meteorological Administration (CMA)
in weather modification activities
26. ♦ organized by local governments
♦ operated by local meteorological
services
Weather modification activities
in China
27.
28. • 1,952 counties of 31 provinces carrying out
precipitation enhancement and hail suppression
by using artilleries and rocket launchers on
ground
Weather modification activities
in China In 2005
• 21 provinces carrying out precipitation
enhancement by using 37 airplanes equipped
with AgI, dry ice or liquid nitrogen generators
and PMS probes.
31. Weather modification consumes
in China In 2005
996,720 artillery shells 84,416 rockets
9,760 litres
liquid nitrogen
676 Kg AgI
(silver iodide)
11,820 Kg
liquid CO2
(carbon dioxide)
32. Weather modification benefit
in China In 2005
Total Investment 494.53M RMB
(US$ 63.4M)
Total Benefit 13.34B RMB
(US$ 1.71B)
Ratio (I/B) 1:27
33. No effect on environment
National Standard of safety Ag+
concentration in water:
Observation of Ag+ concentration in rain
after cloud seeding with AgI in China:
< 0.0002mg/L
0.05 mg/L
34. 2.2 New-Generation Doppler
Weather Radar Project
New-generation Doppler weather radar
(CINRAD) observation network
– Objective: 158 new radars
– 110 radars has been in use so far
Realizing operation condition and
potential and commanding WM
operation rely much on radar
observation
37. Purposes of precipitation enhancement:
♦ for water-store-up of the main
reservoirs and the river basins
♦ for fighting drought
♦ for forest and grass fire control
♦ for environmental improvement
♦ ……
2.3 Precipitation enhancement
56. ♦ The artillery shoots a shell to reach a
maximum height of 6,000 meters.
♦ Each shell contains 1 or 4 grams of
AgI which would produce 1010⎯4×1010
ice nuclei at -4oC.
61. ♦ The maximum flying height of a
rocket is about 8,000m.
♦ A rocket contains 8 grams of AgI
with a production of approximately
1011 ice nuclei.
62. ♦ Only “37” artilleries and rocket launchers are
used in hail suppression operations in China,
which is mainly based on the introduction of
competing embryos.
♦ Some experiments showed that the height
and temperature of 45db radar-echo contour
were the good indicators for the occurrence of
a hailstorm.
2.4 Hail Suppression
63. ♦ Experiments and operations that dissipate
supercooled fog by seeding with ice-forming
agents have been conducted at some airports
and highways in the northern China.
♦ The experiments that dissipate warm fog by
heating and evaporating cloud droplets were
carried out at the Chendu Airport, located in
southwest of China.
2.5 Fog dispersal
64. ♦ The experiments of lightening suppression
were carried out at Pingliang, Gansu Province
in the western China by launching small
Robert which pulled grounding slender lead to
trigger lightening in thunderstorms.
♦ The positive results of the experiments
were confirmed by the numerical simulations.
2.6 Lightening suppression
66. research fund: 10.5M RMB (USD$1.35M)
3.1 The “tenth five-year” project
The Demonstration of Precipitation
Enhancement Techniques
2001-2005
A national key research project sponsored and funded
by the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology
68. Main Work & Results
Develop and integrate comprehensive
detecting techniques for precipitation
augment
Investigate regional cloud-water resource
and its potential of precipitation
enhancement
Develop numerical models for precipitation
enhancement simulation
69. Develop catalyzing techniques for
precipitation enhancement
Investigate statistical and physical
evaluation techniques for effectiveness of
cloud seeding
Carry out field experiments for precipitation
enhancement in the demonstration regions
Integrate comprehensive techniques to set
up a demonstration system for precipitation
enhancement
70. (1) Refitting a specialized aircraft for observation
and cloud-seeding, integrating aircraft-based
detecting system, and realizing real-time aircraft-
ground data transmission.
72. Vertical distribution of cloud droplet concentration, diameter, LWC in a
stratiform cloud from FSSP-ER
Snow crystal image observed by 2D-P
98 cases data
about cloud and
precipitation
structure were
obtained through
15 field experiment
75. Time variation of contribution to the ground hourly rain by that
from ice layer, mix layer and liquid water layer in Zhengzhou and
Nanyang on 19-20 Oct. 2002
4:00 6:00 8:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 0:00 2:00
Time
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
(%)
nytrigx1-1h
nytrigx2-1h
nytrigx3-1h
( b) 冰相层
混合层
液水层
9:00 11:00 13:00 15:00 17:00 19:00 21:00 23:00 1:00
Time
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
(%)
zztrigx1-1h
zztrigx2-1h
zztrigx3-1h
( a) 冰相层
混合层
液水层
(3) Developing an assessment technique to evaluate
regional cloud-water resources and its potential for
precipitation enhancement under different cloud
conditions in the demonstrated areas
77. Concept model of precipitation enhancement
under cold whorl cloud system in Beijing
(4) Setting up concept model of precipitation
enhancement under main cloud system in
demonstration
78. Concept model of precipitation enhancement
under cold front cloud system in Henan
79. (5) Developing several numerical models including a
non-hydrostatic cloud model with the considerations
of explicit cloud and precipitation processes and cloud
seeding, an improved cloud model with bin
microphysics, and improved convective and stratus
cloud models.
Using these numerical models to assess regional
cloud-water resource and its potential for precipitation
enhancement, and cloud-seeding effectiveness.
80. Cloud water T>0℃
Supercooled water T< 0℃
Rain water T>0℃
Ice or Graupel T< 0℃
Vapor Qv
Condensation /
Evaporation
Auto
conversation
Collision
Multiplication/Freezing
Nucleation
Condensation /
Evaporation
Sublimation /
Evaporation
Simplified Ice Scheme in CAMS Model
Melting &
Falling
Falling
82. Initial Field in Convective Cloud Model
Output of MM5Output of MM5
Observation of weather
radar & raingauges
Observation of weather
radar & raingauges
Motion,continuity
equations, & radar observ.
Motion,continuity
equations, & radar observ.
Calculating press. &
temp. disturbance
Calculating press. &
temp. disturbance
Initial field
of
convective
cloud
model
Initial field
of
convective
cloud
model
Adjusting initial field of
vapor & hydrometeor
83. Simulation ofSimulation of AgIAgI seeding on the ground and its diffusionseeding on the ground and its diffusion
and transportation in the cloud (Beijing, 25 June 2005)and transportation in the cloud (Beijing, 25 June 2005)
84. Airborne AgI flame
(6) Developing airborne AgI flame, unmanned
aircraft, airborne generator of liquid CO2 etc.
90. (9) Improving statistical test technique to
be fitted to the demonstrating areas, and
developing a comprehensive technique
combining statistical, physical and
numerical simulation methods.
96. HN20050321-2 FSSP0
Average diameter (4200m)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
MND RMD VMD
diameter(um)
unseeded
seeded
HN20050321-2 FSSP0
Average diameter (5000m)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
MND RMD VMD
diameter(um)
unseeded
seeded-3min later
seeded-10min later
FSSP-0
Average diameter
97. 2DC images and spectrums of concentration and calculated CLW
16:16 16:26
16:57 17:02
98. Comparison between seeding area (A) and comparing
areas (C1, C2) of radar echo and echo area
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
11:00 11:16 11:30 11:45 12:00 12:16 12:34 12:46
time
Area(km2)
C1_35dbz
A_35dbz
C2_35dbz
35dBZ
作业起始时间
作业区
对比区
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
11:00 11:16 11:30 11:45 12:00 12:16 12:34 12:46
time
Area(km2)
C1_35dbz
A_35dbz
C2_35dbz
35dBZ
作业起始时间
作业区
对比区
C1
C2
A
C1
C2
A
99. (10) Integrating comprehensive
techniques and demonstration system
for precipitation enhancement and
notably improved ability of precipitation
enhancement in demonstration areas
103. research fund: 25M RMB (USD$3.21M)
3.2 The “eleventh five-year” project
Key Technology and Equipment Research
and Development on Weather Modification
2006-2010
A national key research project sponsored and funded
by the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology
104. Seven Subprograms
1. Study on cloud and precipitation structure
and process
2. Study on precipitation enhancement
techniques for cumulus-stratiform mixed
cloud
3. Study on precipitation enhancement
techniques for warm cloud
105. 4. Study on fog dispersion techniques around
Beijing area
5. Study on cloud seeding techniques by
unmanned aircraft
6. Study and develop equipment for
precipitation enhancement and fog
dispersion
7. Integration and demonstration on
comprehensive precipitation enhancement
techniques
109. Topography of easten five provinces and
Holguin Province of Cuba
Grupo
Maniabón
Sierra Cristal
Sagua
Baracoa
GuantánamoSantiago
de Cuba
Granma
Las Tunas
Holguin
9300.5 km2
110. Coastal area
Tm: 24.4 – 28.4
Rm: 600 – 800
mm
Mountain area
Tm: 19.1 –
23.4
Rm: > 3000
mm
Climate of Holguin Province of Cuba
Tropical
Húmedo
Interior area
Tm: 22.8 – 27.1
Rm: 1200 – 1600
mm
111. 50 Km
100 Km
150 Km
Radar Location
Ionization Station
Ground Generator
Principal Target Zone
123. Rain compare in July
Municipality Sum July this
year
History
Average in
whole July
From 1
January to 31
July this year
History 1
January to
31 July
Holguín City 208
+121
87 787
+208
579
Gibara 143
+64
79 621
+89
532
AVERAGE
PROVINCE
133
+56
77 649
+14
635
124. Compare of water in reservoirs in July 2006
(Hm3 = million of cubic meters )
reservoir Volume total
(Hm3)
Volume Actual
(Hm3)
Cacoyuguin 5.620 5.620
Güirabo 15.200 15.200
Gibara 65.600 20.626
Tacajó 12.000 8.043
Naranjo 11.650 3.956
TOTAL
PROVINCE
568.238 436.077
125. 5. Prize on weather modification
we won in 2006