1. An Addendum to “Key Components of
Immigration Reform”
An Analysis of the Economic Effects of Creating a Pathway to Legal Status and
Expanding High-Skilled Visas on Suffolk County
Prepared by
Rod Motamedi of Regional Economic Models, Inc.
For
“Economic Impacts of Immigrants in Boston”: An Event Hosted by the Mayor’s Office of New
Bostonians, Boston Redevelopment Authority, and Regional Economic Models, Inc.

2. Introduction
Regional Economic Models, Inc (REMI) is the nation’s leading provider of policy and economic
analysis models and also provides guidance and research on studying important issues of the day.
In July of 2013, REMI released a study titled Key Components of Immigration Reform1
. That
study was funded by the Ford Foundation, Unbound Philanthropy, and the Carnegie Corporation
of New York and examined the national and state-by-state economic effects of various
immigration reform options. This addendum builds off of the previous study by disaggregating
the results for Massachusetts into sub-state areas including the City of Boston as approximated
by Suffolk County.
Methodology
This paper began with the results for Massachusetts from REMI’s national report. It considers
two of the options studied in the main paper: creating a pathway to legal status for existing
undocumented immigrants and increasing the number of H-1B visas available for foreign, high-
skilled workers. Details on simulation methodologies and data sources can be found in the main
report.
The next key piece in the development of this paper is the PI+
model REMI built for Boston
Redevelopment Authority (BRA). PI+
is a dynamic, regional economic model that is used by
clients around the world for economic, demographic, and policy studies. BRA has used PI+
for
ten years to aid the City of Boston in improving the quality of its quantitative research.
We used the baseline employment data in PI+
to allocate the state totals to the individual regions.
The model includes three regions: Suffolk County, its surrounding four counties, and the rest of
Massachusetts. Each region includes a full forecast of employment for 70 sectors through 2060.
The sector-level employment for each region was weighted to reflect its portion of state totals
and then used to allocate state-level results to the regions. For example, in 2014, Suffolk County
has 19% of the Professional and Technical Services’ jobs in Massachusetts therefore it would
receive 19% of those jobs from each of the two scenarios. It is important to note that the types of
industries affected between the pathways scenario and the H-1B scenario differ greatly therefore,
even though the underlying distribution shares are the same, the policies affect Suffolk County
differently.
Pathway to Legal Status
The analysis of creating a pathway to citizenship for existing undocumented immigrants hinges
on the word “existing”. Unlike most immigration studies, it is not concerned with movements of
new people rather it is concerned with moving existing workers out of the economic shadows
1
The paper and state-level factsheets can be found here: http://www.remi.com/immigration-report.

3. into the open economy. Therefore, this scenario does not change national population. However,
previously undocumented workers will see their wages increase over time. Part of this increase is
due to better protection under the law which comes at a cost to the employer. The other and
greater part of this increase is attributed to greater productivity achieved by improved employer-
employee matching enabled by new workforce flexibility.
H-1B
The analysis of increasing the number of H-1B visas issued represents a more traditional
immigration scenario. With the expansion in visas, more workers and their dependents will enter
the U.S. which will increase both labor force and population. Because H-1B immigrants require
a job to enter, these new immigrants represented new employment as well.

4. Results
Pathway to Legal Status
Nationally, in 2014, creating a pathway to legal status will produce a total of 123,000 jobs and
add approximately $10 billion to gross domestic product (GDP). By 2020, these increases are
estimated to be 551,000 jobs and $45 billion.
Figure 1: Heat Map of National Employment Effects of a Pathway to Legal Status
As the above figure shows, while showing positive employment growth, Massachusetts is not
among the top states that benefit in this scenario. This result is due simply to the fact that other
states, especially those along the southern border, have a considerable amount of the nation’s
undocumented immigrants and thus see a larger relative benefit.

5. Figure 2: Employment Impacts of Pathway to Legal Status in Massachusetts’ Regions
Figure 2 shows the growth in employment in Massachusetts. The initial growth is due to the
wage increases over the first five years after legal status. From year six, wage increases follow
existing trends. Table 1 shows the industries that gain the most jobs in Suffolk County. The
industries are a mix between those that typically employ undocumented workers, those that
depend on the consumption of others, and those that support other growing businesses.
Table 1: Top Ten Industries by New Employment, Suffolk County, Pathway to Legal Status
Suffolk County Top Employment by Industry 2020
Hospitals 318
Securities, commodity contracts, investments 168
Ambulatory health care services 160
Professional, scientific, and technical services 153
Educational services 128
Retail trade 103
Administrative and support services 91
Food services and drinking places 80
Construction 73
Personal and laundry services 51
0
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2014
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Jobs
Employment Impact
Suffolk County
Four County Region
Rest of MA

6. The new jobs support more income and gross product. Because more people are earning
paychecks and some are earning larger paychecks, aggregate personal income grows. More
income also leads to greater consumption which benefits the economy as a whole. Gross regional
product (GRP) is the value of net new economic activity and includes consumption as its largest
component. Suffolk County’s GRP grows by $205 million in 2020 and $168 million by 2030.
Figure 3: Personal Income Impacts of Pathway to Legal Status in Massachusetts’ Regions
$0
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$600
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MillionsofFixed2014$
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Four County Region
Rest of MA

7. H-1B
Nationally, in 2014, expanding the number of available H-1B visas will produce a total of
227,000 jobs and add approximately $22 billion to gross national product (GDP). By 2020, these
increases are estimated to be 408,000 jobs and $41 billion.
Figure 4: Heat Map of National Employment Effects of H-1B Expansion
As the above figure shows, in contrast to the pathways scenario, Massachusetts is among the top
states that benefit in this scenario. This result is due to the fact that Massachusetts generally and
Boston in particular receive a significant portion of the high-skilled workers on H-1B visas.

8. Figure 5: Employment Impacts of H-1B Expansion in Massachusetts’ Regions
Figure 5 shows the growth in employment in Massachusetts. The growth is driven by both the
increased employment of H-1B workers and also the economic effects of great population from
the immigration of the both the workers and their dependents. Table 2 shows the industries that
gain the most jobs in Suffolk County. The industries are a mix between those that typically
employ H-1B workers, those that depend on the consumption of others, and those that support
other growing businesses.
Table 2: Top Ten Industries by New Employment, Suffolk County, H-1B Expansion
Suffolk County Top Employment by Industry 2020
Professional, scientific, and technical services 556
Educational services 242
Hospitals 224
Food services and drinking places 176
Administrative and support services 123
Securities, commodity contracts, investments 103
Retail trade 90
Real estate 68
Construction 62
Membership associations and organizations 57
0
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4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2014
2015
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2020
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Jobs
Employment Impact
Suffolk County
Four County Region
Rest of MA

9. The new jobs support more income and gross product. More income and a growing population
also lead to greater consumption which benefits the economy as a whole. Suffolk County’s GRP
grows by $348 million in 2020 and $556 million by 2030.
Figure 6: Personal Income Impacts of H-1B Expansion in Massachusetts’ Regions
As mentioned previously, workers immigrating on H-1B visas are allowed to bring their
dependents with them. Therefore, the population of the U.S. will grow by more than the number
of visas issued. Each new person will represent an increase in demand for goods and services and
some will add to the labor force. These secondary effects are embodied in the results presented in
this paper.
$0
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2014
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MillionsofFixed2014$
Personal Income Impact
Suffolk County
Four County Region
Rest of MA

10. Figure 7: Population Impacts of H-1B Expansion in Massachusetts’ Regions
Conclusion
Each scenario evaluated in the national study and in this addendum promoted economic growth.
While each scenario affects states differently, in the end the growth is wide-spread across the
nation and within the regions of Massachusetts. Gross product, aggregate and per-capita
incomes, and employment all increase in these reform scenarios. In conclusion, we find these
immigration reform proposals beneficial for U.S. and its constituent states.
0
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Individuals
Population Impact
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Four County Region
Rest of MA