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Key Components of Immigration Reform: Federal, State and Regional Lens

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Key Components of Immigration Reform: Federal, State and Regional Lens

  1. 1. Economic Impacts of Immigrants in Boston Monday, April 28, 2014 Key Components of Immigration Reform: Federal, State and Regional Lens Rod Motamedi, Senior Economic Associate Chris Judson, Associate Economist what does REMI say? sm
  2. 2. Timeline what does REMI say? sm Nov 2012 – POTUS mentions Immigration Reform in his election victory speech Jan 2013 – POTUS highlights Immigration Reform in his SOTU address Jan 2013 – Bipartisan group of Senators release plan to address Immigration Reform Jun 2013 – Senate Bill passes, considered dead on arrival in House Oct 2013 to Present – On and off Policy Agenda
  3. 3. Policy Question What is the effect of immigration reform on the broader economy, both at the national and state levels? What does this mean for Boston? what does REMI say? sm
  4. 4. Key Components of Immigration Reform Creating a Pathway to Legal Status Effects of incorporating the more than 11 million undocumented immigrants into the formal economy Expanding High-Skilled Visas Increasing cap on H-1B Visa issuance In national report but not included today Reforming Lesser-Skilled Visas H-2A (temporary or seasonal agricultural work) H-2B (nonagricultural seasonal, intermittent or peak load work) W-1 (lesser-skilled, nonagricultural work) what does REMI say? sm
  5. 5. Approach to Modeling Goal was to understand the effect on the greater national and state economies. This study is unique in showing comprehensive macroeconomic impacts for all states and across all industry sectors on an annual basis. Applied MA immigration totals with PI+ BRA model baseline data to understand regional effects based on employment shares what does REMI say? sm
  6. 6. Key Finding All states see significant growth in major indicators such as GDP and total jobs for each component of immigration reform examined. what does REMI say? sm
  7. 7. Pathway to Legal Status what does REMI say? sm
  8. 8. Approach to Analyze Pathway No increase in workforce or population Increase in labor productivity Indirectly modeled Increase in wages Accounted for labor costs to businesses what does REMI say? sm
  9. 9. Summary Pathway Findings Increased jobs and income Increased job opportunities for existing U.S. workers Increased real income per capita for Americans Increases in construction for housing- and consumption-related industries in particular All states see increases due to economic linkages between the states what does REMI say? sm
  10. 10. National Results Pathway to Legal Status In 2014, providing a pathway to legal status will produce a total of 123 thousand jobs as well as add approximately $10 billion to GDP. By 2020, it is estimated that the result of the expansion will be 551 thousand jobs and the increase in GDP will total $45 billion. what does REMI say? sm
  11. 11. Change in Employment from Baseline 2020
  12. 12. Key Industries Pathway to Legal Status Job gains are across diverse industry sectors. The industries listed below, organized by total job gains, represent over 50% of the total job gains for the nation as a result of this change in policy. Retail Trade 15% Construction 15% Ambulatory Health Care Services 12% Administrative and Support Services 6% Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 5% what does REMI say? sm
  13. 13. Boston – Pathway what does REMI say? sm 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Jobs Employment Impact Suffolk County Four County Region Rest of MA
  14. 14. Boston – Pathway what does REMI say? sm Suffolk County Top Employment by Industry 2020 Hospitals 318 Securities, commodity contracts, investments 168 Ambulatory health care services 160 Professional, scientific, and technical services 153 Educational services 128 Retail trade 103 Administrative and support services 91 Food services and drinking places 80 Construction 73 Personal and laundry services 51
  15. 15. Boston – Pathway what does REMI say? sm Gross Regional Product (Millions of Fixed 2014 $) 2020 Suffolk County GRP $205 Million 22 percent of total MA GSP impact 2030 Suffolk County GRP $168 Million 21 percent of total MA GSP impact Negligible, slightly negative population effects
  16. 16. Boston – Pathway what does REMI say? sm $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 $1,800 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 MillionsofFixed2014$ Personal Income Impact Suffolk County Four County Region Rest of MA
  17. 17. Visa Expansion & Reform what does REMI say? sm
  18. 18. Approach to Analyze Visas Increase in jobs and international migrants Provides workers for U.S. industry expansion Economic expansion driven by increased business competitiveness what does REMI say? sm
  19. 19. Summary of Visa Reforms Increased jobs and income Increased job opportunities in income per capita for existing U.S. workers Increase in jobs through firm expansion and increased production All states see increases due to economic linkages Expanding economic pie benefits existing U.S workers what does REMI say? sm
  20. 20. High-Skilled Visas what does REMI say? sm
  21. 21. National Results High-Skilled Visa Expansion In 2014, expansion of high-skilled visas will produce a total of 227 thousand jobs as well as add approximately $22 billion to GDP. By 2020, the expansion creates approximately 408 thousand jobs and increases GDP by $41 billion. what does REMI say? sm
  22. 22. Change in Employment from Baseline 2020
  23. 23. Key Industries High-Skilled Visa Expansion Job gains are not only concentrated in industries with high H-1B issuance. The industries listed below, organized by total job gains, represent over 50% of the total job gains for the Nation as a result of this change in policy. Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 18% Construction 8% Retail Trade 7% Food Services and Drinking Places 7% Administrative and Support Services 7% Educational Services 4% what does REMI say? sm
  24. 24. Key Findings High-Skilled Visa Expansion The economic benefits are not restricted to states that receive large shares of H-1B Visa issuance. For every visa issued, it creates anywhere from 2 to more than 8 new jobs depending on the state. High-Skilled Visas have a high impact on economy. what does REMI say? sm
  25. 25. Boston – H-1B what does REMI say? sm 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Jobs Employment Impact Suffolk County Four County Region Rest of MA
  26. 26. Boston – H-1B what does REMI say? sm Suffolk County Top Employment by Industry 2020 Professional, scientific, and technical services 556 Educational services 242 Hospitals 224 Food services and drinking places 176 Administrative and support services 123 Securities, commodity contracts, investments 103 Retail trade 90 Real estate 68 Construction 62 Membership associations and organizations 57
  27. 27. Boston – H-1B what does REMI say? sm Gross Regional Product (Millions of Fixed 2014 $) 2020 Suffolk County GRP $348 Million 22 percent of total MA GSP impact 2030 Suffolk County GRP $556 Million 21 percent of total MA GSP impact
  28. 28. Boston – H-1B what does REMI say? sm 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Individuals Population Impact Suffolk County Four County Region Rest of MA
  29. 29. Boston – H-1B what does REMI say? sm $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 MillionsofFixed2014$ Personal Income Impact Suffolk County Four County Region Rest of MA
  30. 30. Concluding Remarks The immigration policies we evaluated promote economic growth. The economic growth is broad based across states and industries. Existing American workers have increased employment opportunities and incomes. Immigration reform in Boston, benefits surrounding counties rest of state- counterfactual approach what does REMI say? sm
  31. 31. Thank You http://www.remi.com/immigration-report @REMIeconomics www.remi.com what does REMI say? sm

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