1. Regional Scan:
The Twin Cities Workforce
July 2002
Prepared for
Twin Cities Economic Development
2324 University Avenue West, Suite 105
St. Paul, MN 55114-1854
651.255.0470
By
Janna King, CEcD
Economic Development Services
3722 W. 50th St. #204
Minneapolis, MN 55410
612.925.2013

2. Twin Cities Economic Development
Twin Cities Economic Development Group (TCED) is a nonprofit public policy organization that was
established in 1998. The mission of the organization is “…to develop and promote strategies to connect low- and
moderate-income people to the benefits of the Twin Cities regional economy.” To fulfill this mission, board and
staff members develop collaborative working relationships with organizational partners in the public, private and
nonprofit sectors throughout the Twin Cities metropolitan area to achieve the following goals: 1) Compile,
develop, and disseminate information critical to the formulation of successful workforce development strategies;
and 2) Provide leadership throughout the metro area on efforts to implement informed and coordinated workforce
strategies.
Acknowledgments
TCED gratefully acknowledges the Governor's Workforce Development Council for providing funding to prepare
this review of the Twin Cities workforce. This scan builds on work prepared by TCED for the Partners for Progress
Regional Consortium in late 2001 and early 2002.
A special thanks for invaluable assistance, including data, research, and analysis by:
Minnesota Department of Economic Security
Todd Graham, Jay Mousa, Thor Snilsberg, Oriane Casale
MN State Demographer’s Office
Tom Gillaspy
Venture Allies
Shelly Bauerly- Koppel
Great North Alliance
Doug Petty
i

3. Forward
During most of the 20th century the economy in the US and the Twin Cities region operated in a labor surplus
environment. Shortages occurred for several years during World War II and only appeared again on a widespread basis in
the late 1990s. Demographers and economists now predict increasing challenges in the labor market due to demographic
change, technological change, globalization, and a business environment with mergers, acquisitions, and related layoffs.
After nearly a century of labor surplus, the state’s businesses, educators, the workforce development system, employees,
and job seekers must adapt to a new economic environment. Nationally and in Minnesota, there is interest in gathering
and using labor market intelligence to enable the labor market to function more efficiently. Practically speaking, this
means that gaps in numbers and skills must be identified quickly or anticipated, and systems must be in place to
communicate with prospective workers and provide appropriate training. Because the labor market and economy function
on a regional basis, this analysis and strategy development is best approached as a region.
The Governor's Workforce Development Council funded two regional pilot projects in 2002 – one in the St. Cloud area,
and one in the Twin Cities. This report provides information on the demand and supply of labor in the seven-county Twin
Cities metro area. The information is primarily historic and quantitative, and includes occupational and population forecast
information that is available from the Department of Economic Security and the State Demographer. It is important to note
that although historic and quantitative information can help identify areas of stress in the labor market, the qualitative and
future oriented insights gained through interviews with businesses and employees are essential to truly understanding the
causes and potential solutions to the shortages.
The purpose of this document, Regional Scan: The Twin Cities Workforce, is to stimulate and inform a dialogue about the
workforce and support the creation of strategies that will make our economy more competitive and provide rewarding
employment opportunities. This dialogue among those engaged in business, economic development, workforce
development, and education is essential to create practical strategies to improve the supply/demand balance in our
regional economy.
ii

4. 1
Improving the Balance between the Regional Economy
and the Regional Work Force
Ways to Influence
Balance and Efficiency
Economy
Industries
Companies
Skills
Work Force
Occupations
People
Skills
Systems that can influence the balance
K-12 Education
School-to- Work
Higher Education/Training
Customized Training
Workforce System
Higher Education Finance
Population Variables Affecting the
Balance
Demographics
Immigration
Retirement
Commuting Patterns
Labor Force Participation Rate
Other Population Changes
Communication and Information
Links to Inform
Decision-making
Wages, Benefits, "Work-life" factors

5. Globalization, technological change, and business changes due to a shift in business strategy or mergers and acquisitions
create rapidly changing conditions that affect both businesses and workers. Businesses search for ways to consistently
improve productivity, often by adopting new technologies. Workers need to maintain marketable skills, and the flexibility to
adjust to new situations. Businesses may need to emphasize training or recruit new employees adept with the new
technologies.
The pace of technological change and the increase in the number of jobs – and even careers – any individual will have
during a lifetime create a need for new relationships, new systems, and new ways of supporting workers and businesses.
A variety of public institutions – the workforce development system, customized training, school-to-work, K-12, traditional
higher education programs, and the higher education finance system – are important to influencing the supply-demand
balance between the economy and the workforce.
Population changes, including immigration, the aging and retirement of the baby boom, the highest labor force participation
rate in the nation, and increasing congestion create new challenges for Twin Cities businesses seeking to compete in the
global economy.
Strengthening the workforce is one of the critical ways the public sector can influence the competitiveness of businesses in
the region. To make sense of the supply-demand balance, data and strategies are typically organized by industry groups
and occupations. However, it is important not to lose sight of the fact that decisions to invest time and money in upgrading
skills are made by companies and individuals. Quality information about the workforce and labor market must be
communicated broadly so that companies and individuals can make well-informed decisions. Based on this information,
companies may choose to invest in training, make changes in wages and benefits, reach out to an immigrant workforce,
partner with a training institution, or find another solution to a labor market challenge. Workers might enhance their skills
as part of a planned career transition, or perhaps be forced into a transition due to a merger, acquisition, or plant closing.
How can limited public sector resources be invested to best serve the taxpayers and citizens of the state? Which
occupations are experiencing chronic vacancies? Is this due to a lack of training resources? Is there a lack of effective
communication with students in K-12 or higher education? Do employers need to look at ways to make the occupation
more desirable to existing and prospective workers? Which industries are critical to the vitality of our economy? What
knowledge and skills are needed or anticipated by employers?
This scan provides information that serves as a foundation to understanding the region's economy and workforce and
points toward industries or occupations which may be stressed, or which may provide important opportunities. More
qualitative research is needed to understand specific industries and occupations more deeply, so that effective strategies
can be developed to provide workers with the knowledge and skills needed by businesses in the Twin Cities region.
2

6. Workforce Supply - Long term
Long-term workforce supply challenges are anticipated due to demographic factors.
Figure 1. Change in Twin Cities working age Figure 2. Twin Cities working age
population: 1975- 2025 population: 1970 - 2025
1975
2,000,000
1985150,00
1,500,000
1995100,00
1,000,000
50,00 2005
500,000
Population
0 Projection2015 0
70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25
- 2025
Age 15-19 Age 20-59
Age 60-64 Trendline Employment
Source: Minnesota Planning, Population Projections to 2025 Minnesota Planning, Population Projections to 2025; DES ES-202
The baby boom, the generation born in 1946-64, fueled growth of the workforce in the 1970s and 1980s (Figure 1).
Female labor force participation also increased dramatically during this time period. Most analysts believe that female
labor force participation has reached a plateau and that only small increments of growth remain, particularly in states
like Minnesota that lead the nation in the percent of women participating in the workforce.
In the 1990s, working age (15-64) population growth in the Twin Cities averaged 1.5% per year (Figure 2). Between
2000 and 2020, Minnesota Planning projects that working age population growth will be 1.0 % per year. After 2015,
3

7. Workforce Supply - Long term
workforce growth will slow dramatically as members of the baby boom generation, currently the largest share of the
workforce, begin to retire. By 2025, the number of retirement-age workers is expected to exceed the number of
young replacement workers entering the workforce.
While the working age population is expected to continue growing for the next 10 years, Figure 2 reveals that growth
has already slowed. This figure also includes an employment trend-line based on the annualized rate of growth
(0.94%) between 1980 and 2000. If the growth of employment were to continue following historic long-term trends,
employment would exceed the number of working age people by 2015. However, the reality is that job-growth is
constrained by labor supply. When companies recognize a workforce shortage, employment expansions will slow
and the Minnesota economy will be constrained as companies expand elsewhere.
Estimating a future gap in the long-term labor supply-demand balance is difficult because assumptions must be made
about productivity rates, growth rates, and employment and retirement patterns. However, the bars in Figure 2
depicting labor supply and the trend-line depicting historic employment growth are helpful in picturing the potential
gap in employment supply and demand.
4

8. Workforce Demand – 1990s - 2001
The Twin Cities economy created a strong demand for labor in the 1990s, resulting in an
unemployment rate substantially below the national average. The Twin Cities also outpaced
the nation in job growth in the 1990s, during the longest economic expansion in the nation's
history. (See Figure 3.)
Figure 3. Job growth and unemployment
Unemployment Rate
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
MSA National
Employment Growth Rate
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
MSA National
Source: MDES Research and Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS), Current Monthly Employment Statistics (CES).
Between 1990 and 2000, employment in the seven county metro area grew at a rate of 13.6%, adding 181,415 jobs
and growing from 1,321,645 to 1,503,110. However, the labor force grew by only 166,056, an increase of 12.4%.
5

9. Workforce Demand – Job vacancies 2000-2001
The supply-demand balance in the labor market shifted in late 2001, when the number of
unemployed residents exceeded the number of job vacancies, according to the Minnesota
Department of Economic Security.
Figure 4. Comparison of unemployment and job vacancy levels: Twin Cities seven county area
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Job Vacancies
Unemployed residents
1Q2000
2Q2000
3Q2000
4Q2000
1Q2001
2Q2001
3Q2001
4Q2001
1Q2002
2Q2002
Source: MDES Research and Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) and Minnesota Job Vacancy Survey
The recession and the September 11 terrorist attacks created a significant shift in the labor supply-demand balance in
the Twin Cities late in 2001 (Figure 4). In the second quarter of 2000, the MN Department of Economic Security
began conducting a semi-annual Job Vacancy Survey, based on a representative sample of employers in 20 industry
sectors. Twin Cities job vacancies totaled approximately 64,000 in that first survey and grew to 97,000 by the fourth
quarter of 2000. Within a year, the number of vacancies dropped to 47,000 and for the first time since the survey was
started, the number of unemployed Twin Cities residents exceeded the number of job vacancies.
6

10. Workforce Demand – Character of Demand in the Twin Cities
The Twin Cities has a high concentration of corporate headquarters, creating demand for a
high level of skills.
Table 1. 15 Fortune 500 corporate headquarters located in the Twin Cities: 2001
3M Lutheran Brotherhood Supervalu
ADC Telecom Medtronic Target
Best Buy Nash Finch United Health
CENEX Harvest States Northwest Airlines US Bancorp
General Mills St. Paul Companies Xcel Energy
In 2001, the Great North Alliance (“an Alliance for Global Competitiveness”) compared the Twin Cities to 11 other
high performance metropolitan regions in the US, using more than 100 economic indicators to examine the region’s
competitiveness. The study, entitled the 2001 Opportunity Forecast, ranked the Twin Cities #1 in Fortune 500 density
and #1 in the concentration of corporate headquarters with over $25 million in annual sales (see Table 1). Corporate
headquarters tend to employ highly educated workers and create a strong demand for business and professional
services, including legal, accounting, financial, marketing and communications, transportation, and engineering and
technical services.
This is reflected in the concentration of white collar and high skill jobs in the Twin Cities region.
According to the US Census, the Minneapolis-St. Paul MSA has a 4% higher concentration of managerial,
professional, and technical jobs than other MSAs throughout the country.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the MSA has a 3% higher concentration of high skill jobs than the
nation as a whole.
According to the Great North Alliance’s 2001 Opportunity Forecast, the region tied for 4th among the 10 high
performance regions included in the benchmarking analysis.
7

11. Workforce Demand – Economic drivers
Those sectors of the economy that export products or services from the region – the economic
drivers – pay better wages than other sectors. The average annual wage among "economic
drivers" is $55,479 compared with $40,395 for all industry groups.
An analysis of the region's share of national payroll in each industry group reveals differences between the Twin
Cities and the nation's industry mix. Industries in which the Twin Cities has an above-average share of employment
are exporters of goods or services to other regions. As net importers of capital into the region, they drive demand for
local goods and services. The Twin Cities represent 1.5% of the nation's covered payroll; as shown in Table 2, 12
industry sectors in the Twin Cities have more than 2.0% of industry payroll nationwide.
Table 2. Economic Drivers: Sectors that export products or services to other regions
Industries (SIC)
Covered Share of Average Annual job
employment, industry annual wage, Growth, Twin
2000 average payroll 2000 Cities, 1996-00
nationwide
Paper & paper products mfg. (26) 21,277 5.10% $69,635 -2.8%
Instruments & related mfg. (38) 35,624 4.46% 57,499 1.0%
Air Transportation (45) 31,245 3.14% 49,776 3.7%
Insurance carriers (63) 35,851 2.89% 58,554 1.1%
Printing & publishing (27) 36,524 2.84% 46,098 -1.4%
Holding & investments finance (67) 5,698 2.58% 87,305 9.0%
Furniture & furnishings retail (57) 18,104 2.55% 41,077 4.9%
Machinery & equipment mfg. (35) 44,852 2.47% 57,136 -0.3%
Transportation services (47) 8,275 2.25% 43,705 3.1%
General Merchandise retail (53) 40,583 2.21% 25,834 1.0%
Security & commodity finance (62) 17,835 2.06% 101,991 9.0%
Museums and gardens (84) 2,072 2.02% 27,135 2.7%
Subtotal: Share > 1.8% 297,939 55,479 2.6%
All industries total 1,600,311 1.53% $40,395 2.5%
8

12. Workforce Demand – Economic drivers
Each of the sectors that emerges as an economic driver is characterized in the Twin Cities by a diverse group of
strong employers, listed in Table 3.
Table 3. Twin Cities Economic Drivers: Major employers
Industries (SIC) Sample of major employers
Paper & paper products mfg (26) 3M Corp, Bemis, Pentair, Rock-Tenn, Smead Mfg
Printing & publishing (27) West Group, Musicland, Deluxe, Merrill, NCS Pearson, StarTribune
Machinery & equipment mfg (35) Tower Auto, ADC Telecom, Donaldson, Datacard, Innovex, McQuay Intl,
Ag-Chem, Graco, Syntegra, Tennant, Toro
Instruments & related mfg (38) Medtronic, Alliant Tech, Honeywell, SciMed/Boston Sci, Guidant, St. Jude
Air transportation (45) Northwest Airlines, Mesaba, Sun Country
Transportation services (47) Carlson Companies, GE Capital Fleet, CH Robinson
General merchandise retail (53) Target Corp, Holiday Station Stores
Furniture & furnishings retail (57) Best Buy, Musicland, Select Comfort, Damark, Gabbert’s
Security & commodity finance (62) St Paul Cos, AmEx Financial, US Bancorp Piper Jaffrey, Dain Rauscher
Insurance carriers (63) United Healthcare, St Paul Cos, Minnesota Life, Reliastar
Holding & investments finance (67) US Bank, Northwest Air, Carlson Cos, Buffets Inc, Regis
Museums & gardens (84) Minnesota Zoo
Source: InfoUSA, ALMIS Employer Database
The diversity of employers in each of the sectors that emerges as an economic driver in the Twin Cities is consistent
with the ideas expressed by Michael Porter of Harvard University in his book, The Competitive Advantage of Nations.
Porter argues that a region's economic vitality is a direct product of the competitiveness of local industries; that local
conditions have a profound effect on international competitiveness, but that conditions affecting competitiveness are
not always simply cost related factors or natural resources. Other factors Porter cites that determine competitiveness
include:
9

13. Workforce Demand – Economic drivers
Factor conditions, such as a specialized labor pool, specialized infrastructure, or even disadvantages that drive
innovation;
Home demand, or local customers that push companies to innovate, especially if their tastes or needs
anticipate global demand;
Related and supporting industries, and internationally competitive local supplier industries, that create a high
quality, supportive business infrastructure and spur innovation and spin-off industries; and
Industry strategy/rivalry, or intense rivalry among local industries that is more motivating than foreign
competition, and
A local "culture" that influences individual industries' attitudes toward innovation and competition.
The Humphrey Institute, together with the Metropolitan Council prepared the Twin Cities Industry Cluster Study
(1995) based on Porter's economic development theory. Using Porter’s criteria and the employment concentrations
in the Twin Cities, five industry clusters were identified and analyzed:
Finance and insurance
Printing and publishing
Computers and software
Medical devices
Machinery and metalworking
After extensive research involving a number of companies, findings and recommendations were prepared for each
cluster. The knowledge and skills of the work force were considered critical to the global competitiveness of each of
the five industry clusters.
10

14. Workforce Demand – Growing industries
Rapidly growing industries created a demand for nearly 88,000 workers between 1996 and
2000. The average wage in the growth industries was $36,893 compared with $40,395 in all
industries.
Growing industries
When considering the economy and workforce development, it is important to identify industries with strong growth
because of their impact on demand for workers. Employment in the Twin Cities grew, on average, 2.5 percent per
year between 1996 and 2000.
Table 4. Industries with greatest recent growth: Twin Cities
Industries (SIC)
Change Annual rate of Average annual
'96-'00 growth, '96-00 wage, 2000
Business services (73)
Education services, incl. Public (82)
Special trades construction (17)
Health services, incl. Public (80)
Eating & drinking places (58)
Engineering & mgmt services (87)
Social services (83)
General contract construction (15)
Security & commodity finance (62)
Miscellaneous/specialty retail (59)
Hotels & lodging places (70)
Air transportation (45)
Communications (48)
Furniture & furnishings retail (57)
Subtotal: Growth leaders
All industries total
26,274 5.1% $39,079
15,497 4.0% 36,280
13,563 8.2% 46,346
9,455 1.9% 38,516
6,824 1.9% 12,999
5,824 4.1% 56,116
5,460 3.3% 21,345
5,388 10.4% 49,891
5,196 9.0% 101,991
4,553 2.8% 23,321
4,525 7.6% 20,142
4,230 3.7% 49,776
3,346 5.7% 57,495
3,180 4.9% 41,077
113,315 4.0% 36,893
147,787 2.5% $40,395
Source: MDES Research and Statistics, Covered Employment and Wage Statistics (ES-202)
11

15. Workforce Demand – Growing industries
The growth industries identified in Table 4 (preceding page) are significant to the regional economy in various ways:
Business services (SIC 73) and engineering and management services (SIC 87) are critical to the “knowledge
economy.”
Air transportation (SIC 45), construction (SIC 15-17), and education services (SIC 82) support economic vitality.
Well-staffed hospitals, clinics, and nursing homes (Health services – SIC 80) are important to quality of life and
worker productivity.
In its Employment Outlook to 2008, the Minnesota Department of Economic Security also prepared a forecast of
which industries will grow the most (Figure 5).
Figure 5. Forecast to 2008: Industries expected to have the greatest growth – Twin Cities
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Business services
Trade
Finance, insur, real estate
Health services
Manufacturing
Education services
Employment growth
to 2008
12

16. Workforce Demand – How do we evaluate which industries are important?
Investors in workforce development – the higher education system and the workforce development system – have
limited resources to invest and must set priorities to maximize the value created for the Minnesota economy, the
worker/job seeker, and Minnesota businesses.
The information presented in the previous pages provides insights into industry demand for workers based on historic
information, projections, and the larger context of our nation's economy. How can policy makers evaluate multiple
variables for multiple industries to identify key industries?
The following “web graphs” are designed to encourage dialogue about workforce development priorities and
strategies for the Twin Cities. The industry groups were selected based on high concentration, growth, and industry
size. The sequence reflects a "rank order" based on equal weighting of four variables for each industry on the list:
industry growth rate (1990-2000) size of the industry (total employment – 2000)
average industry wage (2000) concentration of employment in the Twin Cities relative to the rest of
the nation
Medical Instrument
& Supplies
Example:
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Size
Medical instruments and supplies
Of the industries ranked, medical instruments
and supplies pays relatively high wages; is Growth Concentration (LQ)
highly concentrated relative to other industries
in the Twin Cities and nation; demonstrated a
strong growth rate from 1990-2000 relative to
the other industries ranked; and is moderately Wage
sized compared to the other industries ranked
in this analysis.
13

17. Workforce Demand – How do we evaluate which industries are important?
Key Industries – Ranked
1. Medical instruments and supplies
2. Computer & data processing services
3. Finance & insurance
4. Computer & office equipment
5. Paper & allied products
6. Industrial machinery & equipment
7. Printing & publishing
8. Measuring & controlling devices
9. Furniture & home furnishing stores
10. Management & public relations
11. Engineering & management services
12. General merchandise stores
Examples of major employers in each of
the categories are provided in Table 3.
Key Industry Discussion
Are growth, concentration, size, and wages the four
most important variables to consider when targeting a
key industry?
Should they be weighted equally?
What other factors should be considered? What
measurements are available for these factors?
Qualitative Research Needed in Key
Industries
Do decision-makers in this industry prefer to attract at
least some workers from outside the region? Can
they?
Would they hire regional graduates if available?
If not available, would they recruit and grow here or
expand elsewhere? What are the implications for the
Twin Cities economy?
If they recruit from elsewhere, is it because we lack
an education/training program? What is needed?
14