1. Climate
Change
Vulnerability
&
Adap5ve
Capacity
Assessment:
Example
from
Ka‘ūpūlehu’
ahupua’a
-­‐
Hawai‘i
Island
Alex
Frost
–
Graduate
Student
University
of
Hawaii
Department
of
Urban
and
Regional
Planning
&
University
of
Hawaii
Economic
Research
Organiza5on
(UHERO)

2.
Ques5ons:
What
combina5on
of
land-­‐use
prac5ces
best
enhance
social-­‐
ecological
resilience
under
different
climate
change
scenarios?
a) What
are
the
past,
current
and
future
(poten3al)
land
uses/cover?
b) What
are
the
op3mal
land/ocean
use
scenarios
in
the
face
of
climate
change?
Loca5ons:
• Ha’ena
–
Kauai
Island
• Ka‘ūpūlehu’
–
Hawai‘i
(big)
Island
• Kubulau
-­‐
Vanua
Levu
Project
Background
(NSF
–
Part
II)

3. Project
Loca+on
–
Hawai‘i
Island
Hawai‘i
Hawaii
(Big)
Island
(10,430km2)
North
Kona
District
(pop:
37,875)
33%
popula+on
growth
from
2000-­‐2010
Kaupulehu
ahupua’a
(pop:
614)

4. Ka‘ūpūlehu
ahupua’a
• 16,000+
acres
(64
km2)
on
the
slopes
of
Hualalai
Volcano
• Sea
level
to
8,271
d/2,521m
• Forest,
grass
plains,
lava
fields,
anchialine
ponds,
reefs,
golf
courses,
luxury
resorts
and
residences
• No
perennial
streams
• Single
owner:
Kamehameha
Schools/Bishop
Estate
• 70+
species
of
plants
with
more
than
half
introduced:
– 15
indigenous
– 11
endemic

5. Climate
Trend
–
increasing
temperature
(Hawai‘i
Island
Data)
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
20.5
21
21.5
22
22.5
23
MeanTemperature(°C)
Reference Location: 20.09 N, 155.26 W
10−year moving average with 95% uncertainty range
12−month moving average
Country: United States Nearby City: Hilo
Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature

6. Climate
Trend
–
Decreasing
Rainfall
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Inches
Year
Kaupulehu
Annual
Rainfall
-­‐
Kona
Village
Source:
Giambelluca,
T.
W.,
Chen,
Q.,
Frazier,
A.
G.,
Price,
J.P.,
Chen,
Y.L.,
Chu,
P.S.,
Eischeid,
J.,
et
al.
(2011).
The
rainfall
atlas
of
Hawaii.
Retrieved
from
rainfall.geography.hawaii.edu

7. Local
Observa+on/Knowledge
Source:
Heather
McMillen
“Maybe
this
is
why
we’re
losing
all
this
weather,
because
all
these
trees
are
not
here
anymore.”
“I
think
the
impact
on
these
resources
has
changed
because
before
it
was
for
our
sustenance.
Today
it’s
to
make
money.”
“About
6-­‐7
years
ago
it
rained
up
mauka
(upland)
almost
the
whole
year,
since
then
the
weather
has
changed.”
“It’s
not
good
sign
when
you
see
the
green
limu
(seaweed),
because
it
means
there’s
a
lot
of
stuff
in
the
water”

8. Mauka
–
Upland
Characteris+cs
90%
of
the
dry
forests
in
the
Hawai‘ian
Islands
have
been
eliminated
(Cabin
et
al.,2004)
One
of
the
last
remaining
areas
of
tropical
dry
forest
is
in
Ka‘ūpūlehu,
but
it
faces
many
threats:
• Fountain
grass
(Pennisetum
setaceum),
which
fuels
wildfires;
• Ungulates,
which
destroy
plants
and
increase
fountain
grass
habitat;
• Rodents,
which
eat
the
seeds
and
seedlings
of
na5ve
plants,
preven5ng
regenera5on;
• Insect
preda5on
and
other
alien
plant
species;
and
• Climate
change.

9. Makai
-­‐
Ocean
&
Coastal
Characteris+c
• Between
1992
to
1998
decline
in
fish
abundance
(41%)
&
fish
diversity
(26%)
• Decline
of
coral
cover
from
40.71
%
in
2003
to
27.05
%
in
2011
(UH,
1999:
NOAA,
2013)
• Between
1998
to
2012
increased
density
of
certain
aquarium
&
food
fish
Designated
FRA
(1999)

10. • Increasing
numbers
of
invasive
species
• Decreasing
acreage
of
dry
tropical
forests
• Decreasing
coral
reef
covers
• Poten+al
loss
of
fish
popula+on
and
density
from
aquarium,
recrea+onal,
and
commercial
fishing;
• Increasing
pollu+on,
drought
and
fires;
• Poten+al
loss
of
cultural
assets,
achialine
ponds,
endangered
species,
from
sea
level
rise
&
other
climate
change
impacts
Challenges
facing
Ka‘ūpūlehu’s
unique
marine
and
terrestrial
ecosystems:

11. Adap5ve
Capacity
=
Resource
Availability
in
realms
of:
Economic,
Environmental,
Governance,
Social,
Technology
&
Infrastructure
to
prepare
and
change.
Social
Focus:
Heavy
ci+zen
involvement
with
mul+ple
community
organiza+ons
working
on
conserva+on,
restora+on
and
regenera+on
of
various
ahupua’a
sub-­‐systems,
for
example:
• The
Nature
Conservancy
• Ka‘ūpūlehu
Marine
Life
Advisory
Commijee
• West
Hawai‘i
Fisheries
Council
• State
of
Hawai‘i
–
DLNR
• Tourism
-­‐
Four
Seasons
Resort
&
Dive
Operators
• North
Kona
Dryland
Forest
Working
Group
• Residence
and
Cultural
Prac++oners
• Kamehameha
School
and
Youth
• County
of
Hawai‘i
and
others…
Opportuni+es
-­‐
Strong
Adap+ve
Capacity
in
Ka‘ūpūlehu

12. Next
Step
-­‐
Climate
Adapta+on
Planning
Process
Marine
Ecosystem
Characteris5cs
Local
Ecological
Knowledge
(interviews)
Terrestrial
Ecosystem
Characteris5cs
Stakeholder
Gathering
Climate
Data
Land
Use
(including
governance
&
ownership)
Research:
Historical
Timelines
&
Observa5ons
Land/Ocean
Management
Scenario
Evaluate
Ecological
&
Economic
Outcome
Climate
Change
Projec5on
Policy
(Gov/Private)
Resource
Conserva5on,
Management
&
Governance
Strategy
(Private,
CBO,
Gov)
Publica5ons
&
Future
Research
January
2014
December
2015
Community
Engagement,
Scenarios
&
Model
Development
Recommenda5on
for
Social-­‐
Ecological
Resilience

13. Pau
~
Thanks
for
Listening!
Ques5ons?
Acknowledgment
Na5onal
Science
Founda5on
and
Project
Team:
Tamara
Tick5n,
Heather
McMillen,
Allen
Friedlander,
Kim
Burner,
Tom
Giambelluca
Stacy
Jupitor,
Lisa
Mandle,
Pua’ala
Pascua,
Natalie
Kurashima,
Rachel
Dacks,
Cheryl
Scarton,
Shimona
Quazi,
Jonatha
Giddens
and
many
more
folks
Alex
Frost
–
Graduate
Student
University
of
Hawaii
Department
of
Urban
and
Regional
Planning
&
University
of
Hawaii
Economic
Research
Organiza5on
(UHERO)