1. The social support to the
Catalan State
February 2012

2. Between 2007-2012, different organizations have performed
surveys on the social support to the Catalan State
Public
Organisations
Newspapers
Radios and TV
Source: Viquipèdia,http://ca.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estudis_del_suport_social_a_la_independ%C3%A8ncia_de_Catalunya
2

3. Most of them asked directly about the eventual vote in a
referendum for the independence of Catalonia.
Public
organisations
Newspapers
Radios and
TV
Source: Viquipèdia,http://ca.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estudis_del_suport_social_a_la_independ%C3%A8ncia_de_Catalunya
3

4. The survey considers different answers : “Yes”, “No”, “Abstain”,
“Blank”, “Don’t know”, “no answer” and “Other”
Don’t Know No answer
(%)
(%)
Baròmetre de la Comunicació i la Cultura
Ara (Newspaper)
El Periódico (Newspaper)
Abstain
(%)
Blank
(%)
nov-11
41,4
22,9
25,5
1,0
8,3
0,9
-
jun-11
42,9
28,2
23,3
0,0
4,4
0,8
0,5
oct-11
45,4
24,7
23,8
0,0
4,6
1,0
0,6
36,5
22,1
27,1
0,0
11,7
0,0
0,0
feb-09
50,3
17,8
24,6
0,0
5,8
1,4
0,0
50,4
17,8
24,6
0,0
5,8
1,4
0,0
abr-11
34,2
30,0
9,6
3,2
nov-10
38,5
42,8
7,2
sep-11
42,0
37,7
7,7
44,9
40,0
oct-07
Universitat Oberta de Catalunya
NO
(%)
abr-07
Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió
YES
(%)
feb-10
Institut de Ciències Polítiques i Socials
Release
date
feb-08
Interviewer/Organizer
Other
(%)
33,9
43,9
dic-09
39,0
40,6
7,0
2,0
6,1
2,6
23,0
-
0,0
8,8
2,8
0,0
10,7
1,8
12,5
-
11,4
-
7,9
-
15,1
9,8
jun-10
48,1
35,3
ene-12
53,6
32,0
nov-09
35,0
46,0
19,0
-
14,4
mar-10
36,0
44,0
20,0
-
may-10
37,0
41,0
22,0
-
jul-10
La Vanguardia (Newspaper)
47,0
36,0
7,0
3,0
5,0
-
sep-10
40,0
45,0
7,0
3,0
TV3 (TV)
mar-10
39,3
47,8
-
-
11,0
1,8
-
RAC 1 (Radio)
sep-10
48,8
41,4
-
-
9,7
-
-
SER (Radio)
nov-10
42,3
52,8
-
-
2,8
2,1
-
Source: Viquipèdia, ICPS, CEO, UOC, Baròmetre, Ara, La Vanguardia, El Periódico, TV3, RAC1, SER
5,0
-
4

5. Results show different figures depending on how the answers
(besides YES and NO) are put together.
Results by chronological order
(%)
Abstain, blank,
don’t know, no
answer, other
15
19 20
22
39
“No”
13
32
32
40
18 46 41 18
44
10
19
20 22 17 15 15
36
35 36
48
44 41
41
45
45
50
34 37
35 39
39 36 37
Source: Viquipèdia, ICPS, CEO, UOC, Baròmetre, Ara, La Vanguardia, El Periódico, TV3, RAC1, SER
48 47
40
49
14
30
36
32
28
30
50
29
20
53
43
22
“Yes”
5
39 42 34
38
25
23
54
43 42 45 41
5

6. But in a referendum, results are only YES or NO, so
Results by chronological order
(%)
26
26
No
47
38
56
57
51
53
55
55
53
62
44
43
53
46
53
56
47
40
35
43
49
58
45
45
47
Source: Viquipèdia, ICPS, CEO, UOC, Baròmetre, Ara, La Vanguardia, El Periódico, TV3, RAC1, SER
57
47
54
47
44
53
60
36
37
65
64
63
47
74
74
Yes
42
53
6

7. The support to the Catalan Satate is increasing and is already
widely for the Catalan State
Conclusions
1
All survey show that “YES” is increasing
2
In average, “YES” is increasing by 6% every year
3
If this trend remains, “YES” would be suppoorted by 70% of
the people by 2013.
4
All surveys from 2011 on show a support to the YES greater
than 50%
5
Three surveys from 2011 on show a support to the YES
greater than 60%
7

8. All medias that have performed two (or more) surveys, show
that “YES” is increasing (1/2)
Trend of the surveys on a referendum for the independence
of Catalonia
No
40
%
35
%
Yes
60
%
65
%
June 2011
October
2011
Source: Viquipèdia, CEO, UOC, Ara
No
Yes
47
%
No
38%
47
%
53
%
Yes
62%
November
2010
September
2011
53
%
26%
26%
74%
74%
February February February
2008
2009
2010
8

9. All medias that have performed two (or more) surveys, show
that “YES” is increasing (2/2)
Trend of the surveys on a referendum for the independence
of Catalonia
No
57%
55%
53%
43%
45%
47%
Nov
2009
Yes
March
2010
May
2010
Sourcet: La Vanguardia, El Periódico
43%
57%
July
2010
53%
47%
Sept
2010
No
47%
Yes
53%
Apr
2007
56%
51%
44%
49%
Oct
2007
Des
2009
42%
37%
58%
63%
Jun
2010
Jan
2012
9

10. The trend line shows a clear social support to the “YES”
Trend for the “Yes” versus all the votes ( “yes” and “no”)
Yes
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
Trend line, with a level of
correlation (R2) of 0,6
20%
10%
0%
Source: Viquipèdia, ICPS, CEO, Baròmetre, Ara, La Vanguardia, El Periódico, TV3, RAC1, SER
Note: UOC survey not taking into account because of very different final results.
10

11. In average, “Yes” is increasing by 6% every year
Trend for the “Yes” versus all the votes ( “yes” and “no”)
(simple average)
Average increase
per year = 6%
4%
10 %
3%
59%
46%
2010
2011
2012 (january)
49%
2009
Yes
63%
Source:, ICPS, CEO, Baròmetre, Ara, La Vanguardia, El Periódico, TV3, RAC1, SER
Note: UOC survey not taking into account because of very different final results
11

12. If this trend remains, “Yes” would be supported by 70% of
the people by 2013
Extrapolation for 2013 and 2014
75.0%
69.1%
59.1%
46.1%
62.6%
49.4%
Yes
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
(estimation)(estimation)
Source: Anàlisi del CCN en base a dades de Viquipèdia, ICPS, CEO, Baròmetre, Ara, La Vanguardia, El Periódico, TV3, RAC1, SER
Note: UOC survey not taking into account because of very different final results
12

13. All surveys between 2001 and 2012 show a support to the
“Yes” greater than 50%
Votes for “Yes” versus all votes valid (“Yes” and “No”)
50%
Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió
64.8%
Inst. de Ciències Polítiques i Socials
64.4%
El Periódico
62.6%
Baròmetre de la Comun. i la Cultura
53.3%
Diari Ara
52.7%
Source: Viquipèdia, ICPS, CEO, UOC, Baròmetre, Ara, La Vanguardia, El Periódico, TV3, RAC1, SER
13

14. Three surveys from 2011 on show a support to the “Yes”
greater than 60%
Votes for “Yes” versus all votes valid (“Yes” and “No”)
Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió
64.8%
Inst. de Ciències Polítiques i Socials
64.4%
El Periódico
62.6%
Baròmetre de la Comun. i la Cultura
53.3%
Diari Ara
52.7%
Source: Anàlisi del CCN en base a dades de Viquipèdia, ICPS, CEO, UOC, Baròmetre, Ara, La Vanguardia, El Periódico, TV3, RAC1, SER
14

15. We can conclude that the major social support to the YES is
in Catalonia, already a reality



In the last surveys, “Yes” gets more than 50% of the votes and some cases , more than
60%
If the trend remains, support to the “Yes” will reach 70% of the votes by early 2013
As in Scotland, an official referendum will increase the support to the “Yes” thanks to
the campain
We ask at the Catalan Governement to focus on the process to achieve thge Catalan
State, via referendum or via early elections. A debate focused on the futur Catalan State
is necessary.
15

16. Només amb un Estat propi
Catalunya serà econòmicament viable
Empresaris per l’Estat propi
www.ccncat.cat
info@ccncat.cat