This paper was presented at the May 1 2012 forum organised by the Post-Global Initiative (IGPO) in Moscow. There is a slideshow, paper, and video. The video can be found at the IGPO site and the paper will be uploaded to Repec and academia shortly (as of 2 Jan 2014). A version of the paper is on the pglobal main website at http://pglobal.org/news/258/?sphrase_id=516, and the video is at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2bHpGpPfgw

1. Alan Freeman 30th April 2013
OUT OF CRISIS: A PRACTICAL
PROGRAMME

2. ECONOMIC POLICY AND GROWTH SINCE THE CRISIS
Region/
Country
EU
US
China
India
Policy applied
Loose money, few banking
controls, no stimulus
Loose money, few banking
controls, consumer stimulus
Expansionary money with strong
banking controls;
Investment-led stimulus
Strong state banking controls;
Consumer stimulus
Growth
-2% over last 4
years
1.2% over last 4
years
9% over last 4
years
9.4% in 2010
falling to 5.3% in
2012

3. US GROWTH IN POSTWAR BUSINESS CYCLES

4. US GROWTH IN POSTWAR CYCLES

5. US CAPACITY UTILISATION

6. US UNEMPLOYMENT

7. WHEN DID THE US GET OUT OF THE LAST CRISIS?

8. HOW DID THE US GET OUT OF THE LAST CRISIS?

9. EUROPE’S INVESTMENT COLLAPSE

10. US INVESTMENT COLLAPSE

11. WHY CHINA AND INDIA ARE GROWING

12. THE IMF’S MISTAKE
[IMF] growth forecasts have been systematically too
low since the start of the Great Recession, by 0.4 to
1.2….
Whereas its own forecasts implied a multiplier of 0.5,
the actual multipliers may be in the range of 0.9 to 1.7…
There is a religious Golden Rule in (semi-) official
literature which places the upper limit on all multipliers
at 1 …
This false logic explains why the UK’s ‘Office of Budget
Responsibility’, a leading architect of austerity forecast
a 20.3% rise in business in the last two years while the
actual increase has been 2.5%.