1. Automobile Monthly | 12th Jan’12
Monthly Auto Sales – December’ 2011 Sector Update
Price Performance Sales in the month of December showed some revival with
Scripts Y-o-Y M-o-M Dec-11 Dec-10 Nov-11 pick up in passenger car sales led by Maruti Suzuki and uplift
Sensex -24.6% -6.2% 15454.9 20509.1 16483.5
Auto -20.4% -3.4% 8143.7 10235.4 8434.2
of sentiments with the decrease in food, expectation on
ALL -14.7% 10.8% 27.3 32.0 24.6 easing interest rates by RBI and heavy discounts offered by
BJAL 3.3% -4.8% 1592.8 1541.5 1672.9 OEMs and dealers to maintain sales momentum, help to
Hero -4.1% -8.8% 1905.3 1986.1 2089.9
Maruti -35.2% -5.0% 920.1 1420.6 968.7
lower inventory in the system. LCVs continued to show
M&M -12.2% -5.6% 683.1 777.6 723.9 strength while 2-wheeler segment lost the shine this month.
Tata -31.7% 3.5% 178.4 261.3 172.5 Total domestic sales in December grew by 3% on a Y-o-Y
TVS -26.5% -12.4% 51.9 70.7 59.3
basis & -5% on M-o-M basis. Total sales in April-December
Key Player & Industry Volume growth- Dec’11 2011 were up by 13.6% from the corresponding period last
year. Among the majors, Tata Motors and Hero MotoCorp
Industry
14.5% reported better-than-expected numbers for the month.
Y0Y gr 1.7%
7.0% December volumes showed a sign of revival from the previous
Hero
MoM gr 0.7% month. The industry clocked more than 1.6 million vehicles across
category in Dec’11. Industry growth is expected to be driven
20.1%
ALL primarily by Commercial vehicles. Domestic CV segment sales
15.4%
clocked 17.4% Y-o-Y to ~85 thousand units in December, 2011,
TVS
-0.8% from 70 thousand units same month last year, while the PV
-2.9% segment has witnessed a increase of 12.8% Y-o-Y (-4.1% M-o-M)
10.4%
basis. The 2-Wheeler segment grew 11% Y-o-Y (decline -5.6% M-o-
-18.4%
Bajaj M) during the month of Dec’11.
25.5%
M&M Outlook:
5.0%
The outlook towards volume growth in the sector is commingling,
0.0% on an index performance basis; the BSE Auto index
Maruti
8.1% underperformed yet another month on M-o-M return of -3.4% in
Dec’11. On the demand side, 2-wheeler demand remain structured,
Tata 22.0% while some upside movement in LCV and M&HCV can be seen,
7.1%
while, in near term on domestic economy is expected to remain
Source: Company, R K Global research sluggish amid the challenges. Though it is to be noted that demand
is structural, food inflation has fallen down to -3% Y-o-Y, expected
Research Analyst easing of higher interest rates and inflated commodity price, while
Aditya Vikram Jha
the concern is depreciating domestic currency, which could cause
aditya.jha@rkglobal.in
serious concerns for the whole industry as profitability and volume
Key Players & company volume growth YTD growth could see erosion.
Y-o-Y M-o-M YTD
Segments Company Dec -11 Nov -11 Dec-10 YTD FY'12 YTD FY'11
% % %
TVS Motor 167905 172839 168359 -0.3 -2.8 1994253 1881177 6.0
Hero MotoCorp 540276 536772 504891 7.0 0.6 5605796 4901506 14.4
2-Wheelers
Bajaj Auto 263699 331967 243675 8.2 -20.6 3510126 3239027 8.4
Total 971880 1041568 916925 -2.6 -6.7 11110175 10021710 10.8
TVS Motor 2523 2706 3431 -26.5 -6.8 41168 31848 29.3
Bajaj Auto 41991 42510 33128 26.7 -1.2 457048 420090 17.7
3-Wheelers
Mahindra & Mahindra 5744 5889 5928 -3.1 -2.5 57048 49170 10.9
Total 50258 51105 42487 -7.8 -1.7 556108 501108 10.9
Ashok Leyland 2429 2106 2519 -0.8 18.7 25155 80474 -65.7
Tata Motors 28916 27737 19706 47.3 2.2 267721 284633 -5.9
Passenger
Mahindra & Mahindra 19341 17813 15601 23.9 8.5 187173 168815 10.8
Vehicles
Maruti Suzuki 69329 73078 75652 -8.4 -5.1 774672 711928 8.8
Total 120015 118628 113478 34.7 -0.5 1254721 1245850 0.7
Ashok Leyland 6659 5772 5049 30.5 14.2 70639 65788 7.4
Tata Motors 47747 44737 41926 13.8 6.7 458057 425595 7.6
Commercial
Mahindra & Mahindra 13757 13362 13817 10.1 2.7 129269 98542 1.4
Vehicles
Maruti Suzuki 15210 9792 10161 35.4 55.3 145134 143173 31.2
Total 83373 67891 70953 12.9 13.1 803099 733098 9.5
Industry 1225526 1279192 1143843 0.8 -4.8 13724103 12501766 9.8
Source: SIAM, Company, R K Global Research
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2. Automobile Monthly
Domestic Market Share in two-wheelers Two-wheeler Segment
The 2-wheeler reported sapless sales for the month of December
TVS 13.6
2011 by 11% on Y-o-Y basis at 1.4 million units. The two wheeler
industry reported a feeble sales number after three consecutive
Others 18.9 astral performances till Nov’11. On M-o-M basis the growth
declined by 5.6% during the month of Dec’11. Going forward, the
BJAL Dec-11 2W industry is expected to report a volume CAGR of 9-11%in
24.4
FY12. The entry of new players in the industry, multitude of new
launches, growing distribution reach, has helped the industry to
HERO 43.1 grow and become prime movers for Auto Sector to growth over
the medium term. However, rising commodity prices, hardening
%
0 10 20 30 40 50 interest rates and increasing fuel costs may lead to some
TVS Motors: Sales Volume moderation in industry growth over the short term.
Scooter Sales Motorcycle Sales Y-o-Y gr
TVS Motors
150 54
140 TVS Motors sales continued to move in line with the industry
44
130 trend on stronger two-wheeler sales in comparison to the overall
120 34 industry. Overall sales were clocked at 170428 units, a decline of
'000 Units
110
100 24 0.8%Y-o-Y and 2.9% M-o-M. Motorcycle sales volumes had a
90 worst performance to stand at ~56662 units, a decline of 7% Y-o-
80 14
Y and 9.5% M-o-M. Scooter sales witnessed a growth of 7.2% Y-o-
70 4
60 Y and 1.2% M-o-M to 44 thousand units. The export segment
50 -6 continued to do well with 42% Y-o-Y growth clocking 22481
%
Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 units. Cumulative figures during the period April to December,
2011, grew by 10.5% to ~16 lakh units as against 15 lakh units
sold in the same period last year.
Bajaj Auto: Net sales & export volume
Commercial Vehicle Motorcycle Y-o-Y gr
30
400 Bajaj Auto
25 Bajaj Auto posted slothful sales numbers declining 10% Y-o-Y
'000 Units
350 with exports providing strong support (up 25.1% Y-o-Y). Total
20
volumes for the month were at 3.0 lakh units reflecting a fall of
300
15
18.4% M-o-M. In the two-wheeler segment, Pulsar and Discover
brands (accounting for ~68% of total sales to 1.7 lakh units)
250 10 continued to be the volume driver. The motorcycle sales volume
declined 21% M-o-M to 2.6 lakh units. The three-wheeler segment
200 5 for Bajaj Auto continued its growth of 26.7% Y-o-Y (decline -1.2%
%
Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 M-o-M) to 41991 units.
Hero MotoCorp: Sales Volume
Volume Y-o-Y gr
550 43
38 Hero MotoCorp
500
33 Hero MotoCorp (HMC), the market leader in the two-wheeler
450
28 segment, keeps up the momentum of consistent five lakh-plus
'000 Units
400
23 unit sales every month. The company registered volumes of 5.4
350 lakhs unit a growth of 7.1% Y-o-Y (0.6% M-o-M). Cumulative Apr-
18
300 13 Dec’11 sales volume grew 9.6% Y-o-Y to 46.9 lakhs units.
250 8
200 3
%
Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11
Source: SIAM, Company, R K Global research
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3. Automobile Monthly
Domestic Market Share in Four-wheelers Four-wheeler Segment
Commercial vehicle (CV) segment registered a stirring performance
GM 3.9
Dec-11
with a growth of ~17.4%Y-o-Y to ~85K units sales volume in
M&M 8.3
December across industry, While the domestic passenger car segment
grows at 12.7% on Y-o-Y (decline 4.1% M-o-M). However, this
Others 11.2 segment would continue to face challenges on the interest rate front
Tata 12.7
and could receive a boost by the end of FY12. The long-term outlook
for the domestic CV industry remains strong. While the PV cars
Hundai 21.1 segment has exceeded sales in the mini-segment; the growth in this
segment has been led by new launches, lower prices versions of the
Maruti 42.8
vehicles in the Mid-size segment. The entry of new players in the
% 0 10 20 30 40 industry and the significant capacity additions expected are however
likely to keep the competitive pressures high.
Maruti Suzuki: Domestic Sales & export
volume
Maruti Suzuki India
Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL) gets relived from its consecutive drop in
Export Commercial monthly sales; the company’s total sales increased 8.1% M-o-M.
130 Passenger Y-o-Y gr 40
120 30 Commercial Vehicles were the main driver for the company; it
110 20 increased 55% M-o-M (10.1% Y-o-Y) to 73078 units. The PV (-5.3% M-
100 10
o-M) segment was the worst performer in Dec’11. A1 and A3 segment
'000 Units
90 0
80 -10 declined 11.7% and 6.8% M-o-M to 9181 and 20653 units respectively.
70 -20 While the SX4 model lost the growth momentum, the sales volume
60 -30
50 -40
stood 843 units (down 42% M-o-M).
40 -50
30 -60
Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11
%
Tata Motors: Domestic Sales & export
Tata Motors
volume
Domestic sales of the company have increased by 24% Y-o-Y (5.8% M-
o-M) to 76663 units; despite the good performance in domestic
Export Commercial
90 Passenger Y-o-Y gr 70 segment, the company's exports in the period under review declined
80 60 3.3% Y-o-Y( increase 29.1% M-o-M) at 5615 units. Passenger vehicles
70 50 were the main contributor which increased 47.3% Y-o-Y (2.2% M-o-M)
60
40 to 29417 units, while makeover of Nano boosts sales by 16.4% M-o-M
'000 Units
30 to 6401 units. The Indica range reported sales volume of 9307 units,
50
20 up 57.1% Y-o-Y (decline 14.8% M-o-M), while the Indigo segment
40
10 recorded sales volume of 6888 units, a increase of 31.6% Y-o-Y and
30 0
10.8% M-o-M. Sales of Sumo, Safari, Aria and Venture segment grew
20 -10
90% Y-o-Y (25.2% M-o-M) to 5255 units. Commercial vehicle rose
10 -20
13.8% Y-o-Y, where LCV segment was the main contributor which
%
Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11
increased 20.1% Y-o-Y (2.8% M-o-M) to 29500 units. M&HCV sales
Source: SIAM, Company, R K Global research stand at 18247 units up both by 5.1% Y-o-Y and 13.6% M-o-M.
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4. Automobile Monthly
Mahindra & Mahindra:
Sales Volume (excl. tractors)
Mahindra and Mahindra
Passenger Vehicles Commercial Vehicles
Total Automotive sales Y-o-Y gr M&M reported strong 17.4% Y-o-Y growth in total volume to
85 65
59150 units, The automotive sale stood 42761 units during Dec’11,
75
55 a increase of 25.5% Y-o-Y, while in FES segment total sales volume
65
45 accounted to 16389 units, a increase of -0.4% Y-o-Y (-6.5% M-o-
'000 Units
55
45 35 M). In the tractor space, domestic sales rose 1.2% Y-o-Y (decline
35 5.3% M-o-M), while export showed a striking growth of 78.6% Y-o-
25
25 Y (11.9% M-o-M). In automotive segment, LCV & M&HCV sales
15
15 volume grew by 23.9% Y-o-Y, where as four- wheeler pick up
5 5 segment continued a strong growth of 35.4% Y-o-Y. Automotive
Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 %
export showed astral performance of 78.6% Y-o-Y (11.9% M-o-M),
to 2870 units during December 2011.
Tractor Sales
Tractor Sales Y-o-Y gr
35 60
30 40
20
'000 Units
25
0
20
-20
15 -40
10 -60
%
Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11
Ashok Leyland: Sales & export volume
Ashok Leyland
Export Total Sales
15 60
Ashok Leyland (ALL), the Hinduja group company sales volume
50
13
40
witnessed astral performance of 20.1% Y-o-Y (15.4% M-o-M), to
11 30 9088 units in Dec’11. Domestic sales scaled up by 25.4% Y-o-Y
'000 Units
20 (24.2% M-o-M) to 8042 units. While exports segment which were
9
10 on the higher side for many months now, declined 9.6% Y-o-Y and
7 0 25.4% M-o-M to 1046 units. The company’s Apr-Dec’11 sales
5
-10 volume showed muted performance grew 2.6% Y-o-Y to 66123
-20 units. While domestic sales rose 1.6% Y-o-Y to 57520 units,
3 -30 exports surged 10.6% to 8634 units. However, this year there has
%
Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 been a sharp slowdown, especially as the RBI has hiked interest
Source: SIAM, Company, R K Global research rates several times. While with the decline in inflation rate,
interested rate is expected to come down in next RBI meet.
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5. Automobile Monthly
Auto Expo 2012
Planned Planned
Company New Launches Category Company New Launches Category
Arrival Arrival
Leap Scooter (Concept) NA HyAlfa 3-Wheeler Q4FY12
Hreo Maestro Scooter Q4FY'12 MN25 Transit Mixer Q4FY12
MotoCorp Passion ProX 110cc Motorcycle Q4FY'12 MN 25 Refr- Van FY’13
Ignitor 125cc Motorcycle Q4FY'12 MN31 Bulker Bulker FY’13
TVS Sport Motorcycle FY’13 M&M Tourister 32 Bus NA
TVS Torma Motorcycle FY’13 Rexton SUV Q4FY12
TVS
TVS Radio Motorcycle NA Korando E Car FY’13
Motor
TVS Qube Scoote (Concept) NA Actyon Sports Mixed Car NA
TVS Jive Motorcycle FY’13 XIV-1 Car (Concept) NA
Safari Storme SUV FY'13 Ertiga Car Q4FY12
Tata Ultra LCV&ICV FY'13 XA α SUV (Concept) NA
Tata LPT 3723 HCV FY'13 Omni Cuppa Joy Van FY’13
Nano CNG Car (Concept) NA SX4 Sport Midsize PV FY’13
Pixel Car (Concept) NA SX4 Poise Midsize PV FY’13
Indica Vista S2 Car (Concept) NA Macho Gypsy SUV NA
Manza Nova Car (concept) NA Maruti Urbane WagnoR Mini PV NA
Aria Car (Concept) NA Suzuki A Star Chabriolet Mini PV NA
Tata
Starbus (hydrogen) Bus (Concept) NA Kizashi Executive PV
Motors
Xenon Car (Concept) NA Swift Night Rider Executive PV
Prima 7548.S HCV (Concept) NA Altro Xlerate Mini PV NA
Prima 3138.K HCV Q4FY12 Ritz Bluseslounge Compact PV NA
Venture Ambulance Ambulance FY’13 Dreamliner Estilo Compact PV NA
Ace Refrace SCV FY’13 Eeco Funstation Van NA
Super Ace (Left hand) SCV NA Bajaj RE60 Car FY'14
Paradiso G7 PV FY’13 Auto KTM Motorcycle NA
Sumo Glod SUV Q4FY12
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6. Automobile Monthly
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