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Ashok Leyland Limited | Automobiles
                                                                                                         Result Update | 1st February, 2012


   CMP-` 26.8
     18.98                                                                                                               Not Covered

                 Market Data*                                      Ashok Leyland Limited (ALL) posted Q3FY12 top-line growth of
   Bloomberg Code                   AL.IN                          29% YoY to `28797.9mn, while it’s EBITDA margin fell by
   Reuters Code                  ASOK.BO                           116bps on Y-o-Y basis. ALL’s PAT stood at `669mn, an increase
   Sensex/Nifty Close      17431.8/5269.9                          of 54% as compared to same period last year.
   Dividend Yield (%)                 3.5
   52 Week High/Low             29.9/20.1                          ALL reported a 29% YoY (-6.9% decline on Q-o-Q) growth in its
   Equity Capital(` mn)            2660.7                          top-line to `28797mn, on account of 23.8% YoY increase in volume
   Face Value (`)                       1
                                                                   sales. On a sequential basis, the volume decline by 1.5% while
   Market Cap (` mn)              75962.3
                                                                   realization per vehicle declined 5.6% during the same period. Total
   Avg.10 day NSE Vol.          69150909
   Source: Ace Equity, R K Global Research, *as on 1st Jan’12      expenditure for the period under review increased by 29% YoY, of
                                                                   which, Purchase of finish goods surged (150% YoY), manufacturing
             Key Market Ratio*                                     cost rose (42% YoY) and raw material cost (20% YoY). However,
   Latest TTM EPS (`)                                        2.3   better product mix helped the company to increase its revenue.
   Book Value (`)                                           10.8
   TTM PE (x)                                               12.5   Sales surge by 23.8% YoY, while exports beg off. 14.1% YoY .
   TTM PBV (x)                                               2.6   ALL MDV goods vehicle sales volume surged 23.5% YoY (-15.7%
   EV/TTM EBITDA (x)                                         7.6   QoQ) to 14309 units in Q3FY12. Company’s total domestic sales
   EV/TTM Sales (x)                                          0.8   increased 36.4% YoY (decline 1% QoQ). Passenger vehicle segment
   Market Cap/TTM sales (x)                                  0.6   also witnessed a slight fall in volume to 1.6% YoY (2.7% QoQ) to
   Source: Ace Equity, R K Global Research, *as on 1st Feb’12
                                                                   6781units in Q3FY12.
            Share-Holding Pattern (%)*
                                                                   ALL’s average realization increased by 4.4 % YoY (a decline of
        Promoters            FII's       Public       Others       5% QoQ) ALL’s EBITDA per vehicle rose 3.0% YoY (a decline of
                                                                   36.5% QoQ) to `93575 in Q3FY12 compared to `90958 same
                                                                   period last year. While PAT per vehicle surge 24.6% YoY basis (-
                                                                   55.9% QoQ) to `29309 in Q3FY12 equated same period last year.
                  34.1%

                                                                   EBITDA margin declined by 116bps YoY Operating profit for the
                                             38.6%                 period under review stood at 7.4% to `2103.7mn in Q3FY12, a
              10.7%                                                decline of 116bps compared same period last year. However PAT
                                                                   margin increased stood at 2.3%, compared to 1.9% same period
                        16.5%                                      last year. The EBIT margin increased 20 bps to 2.5% in Q3FY12.

   Source: Ace Equity, R K Global Research *As on 31st Dec’12
                                                                   PAT fall on account of Bonus to employees.
                                                                   On sequential basis ALL’s PAT decline 56% QoQ to stand at `669
                      Price vs Sensex                              mn, compared to `1540.8 mn in Q1FY12, mainly due to increase in
                   Sensex                 Ashok Leyland
                                                                   marketing expenses and Bonus issued to employees. While,
     120                                                           effective tax rate crashed by whopping 1490 bps on incurring
     110                                                           higher R&D capital expenditure boosting the net profit by robust
     100
                                                                   54% YoY.
      90
                                                                   Key Con Call Extracts:
      80
                                                                    Volume guidance for FY12 is 9% targeting 1.0 lakh vehicles and
      70                                                             aimed at achieving 10% operating margins.
      60                                                            The company is expected to launch 3 tonne LCV in Q1FY13.
      50
                                                                    The company hoped to ramp up production to around 4000
        Jan-11      Apr-11      Jul-11      Oct-11      Jan-12
                                                                     units per month, from around 3000 per month currently to
                                                                     achieve its market share target.
   Source: Ace Equity, BSE, R K Global Research
                                                                    The company is targeting a 25% market share by the end of the
  Research Analyst:                                                  current fiscal year. Presently it is having 23% market share pan
  Aditya Vikram Jha
  aditya.jha@rkglobal.in
                                                                     India.

R K Global Shares & Securities Ltd-Private Client Research | Equity Research                             For Private Client Circulation       1
Ashok Leyland Limited | Automobiles

      Quarterly Financial Review

      Financials (` mn)                                    Q3FY12          Q3FY11       Y-o-Y (%)      Q2FY12       Q-o-Q (%)
      Vehicle Sold                                          22827           18437           23.8%       23167           -1.5%
      Revenue                                              28797.9         22272.4          29.3%      30945.7          -6.9%
      Total Expenditure                                    26694.3         20618.7          29.5%      27634.2          -3.4%
      % of Total Net Sales                                  92.7%           92.6%               -       89.3%               -
        (Increase) / Decrease In Stocks                    -1033.8         -1493.9         -30.8%       1629.4        -163.4%
        Purchase of Finished Goods                          1564.7           609.0        156.9%         924.7          69.2%
        % of Total Net Sales                                 5.4%            2.7%               -        3.0%               -
        Cost of Services & Raw Materials                   20756.6         17178.6          20.8%      20203.3           2.7%
        % of Total Net Sales                                72.1%           77.1%               -       65.3%               -
        Operating & Manufacturing Expenses                  2683.4          1885.8          42.3%       2361.7          13.6%
        % of Total Net Sales                                 9.3%            8.5%               -        7.6%               -
        Employee Cost                                       2723.2          2439.2          11.6%       2515.1           8.3%
        % of Total Net Sales                                 9.5%           10.9%              -         8.2%               -
      PBIDT (Excl OI)                                       2103.7          1653.7          27.2%       3311.5         -36.5%
      Other Income                                            32.3            23.2          39.1%        103.3         -68.7%
      Operating Profit                                      2136.0          1677.0          27.4%       3414.8         -37.4%
      Interest                                               550.1           474.8          15.9%        626.9         -12.3%
      PBDT                                                  1585.9          1202.2          31.9%       2787.8         -43.1%
      Depreciation                                           866.3           646.9          33.9%        859.3           0.8%
      PBT                                                    719.6           555.3          29.6%       1928.5         -62.7%
      Tax                                                     50.6           121.6         -58.4%        387.7         -86.9%
      Profit After Tax                                       669.0           433.7          54.3%       1540.8         -56.6%
      EPS (`)                                                  0.3             0.2          47.1%          0.6         -56.9%



      Margin Ratios                                         Q3FY12         Q3FY11        Y-o-Y (%)       Q2FY12       Q-o-Q (%)
      EBDITM                                                  7.3%           7.4%            -1.6%        10.7%          -31.7%
      OPM                                                     7.4%           7.5%            -1.5%        11.0%          -32.8%
      EBDTM                                                   5.5%           5.4%             2.0%         9.0%          -38.9%
      EBTM                                                    2.5%           2.5%             0.2%         6.2%          -59.9%
      PATM                                                    2.3%           1.9%            19.3%         5.0%          -53.3%



      Operating Metrics                                     Q3FY12         Q3FY11        Y-o-Y (%)       Q2FY12        Q-o-Q (%)
      Total Income/Vehicles                                 1261575        1208030            4.4%       1335767           -5.6%
      Material cost per units                                909304         931746           -2.4%        872071            4.3%
      Staff cost per units                                   119298         132301           -9.8%        108566            9.9%
      Other exp. per units                                   117556         102285           14.9%        101941           15.3%
      EBITDA/Vehicles                                         93575          90958            2.9%        147401          -36.5%
      Net Profit/Vehicles                                     29309          23522           24.6%         66509          -55.9%


      Volume Performance                                     Q3FY12            Q3FY11    Y-o-Y (%)        Q2FY12       Q-o-Q (%)
      Production                                              23867             19291        23.7%         21242           12.4%
      Sales                                                   22827             18437      23.81%          23167           -1.5%
      Domestic                                                19808             14924        32.7%         19939           -0.7%
      Export                                                   3019              3513       -14.1%          3228           -6.5%




R K Global Shares & Securities Ltd-Private Client Research | Equity Research                    For Private Client Circulation     2
Ashok Leyland Limited | Automobiles

                     For Suggestions, clarifications & your valuable feedback write back to us at:

                  R K Global Research                                                      R K Global Institutional Sales
                  R K Global Shares & Securities Ltd:                                      R K Global Shares & Securities Ltd:
                  Flat No.: B12, Park Tower,                                               503 & 504 Adamji Building,
                  67B Ballygunge Circular Road,                                            Narsi Natha Street, Masjid Bunder (West)
                  Kolkata – 700 019                                                        Mumbai- 400 009
                  Board: +91 (33) 4017 4999                                                Board: +91 (22) 4360 2222
                  E-Mail: research@rkglobal.in                                             E-Mail: inst.desk@rkglobal.in


      Locate Us…

           City                                                 Address                                                  Contact
                                                 501, Wall Street, near Gujarat College,
       Ahmedabad                                                                                                   +91 (79) 4002 0996
                                                          Ahmedabad-380 006
                                                 Flat-5 Sagar Apartment, 6 Tilak Marg,
          Delhi                                                                                                    +91 (11) 4310 0999
                                                           New Delhi-110 001
                                                248, Ganpati Plaza, 2nd Floor, M I Road,
          Jaipur                                                                                                   +91 (141) 404 0999
                                                             Jaipur-302 001
                                                         2 Saklat Place, Suite-9,
         Kolkata                                                                                                   +91 (33) 4014 1999
                                                            Kolkata- 700 072
                            308, 3rd Floor Morya Estate, Opposite Infiniti Mall, New Link Road, Andheri West,
         Mumbai                                                                                                    +91 (22) 4210 5555
                                                            Mumbai-400 053
                                                 No-163/2, Kutcherry Road, Mylapore,
         Chennai                                                                                                   +91 (44) 4593 9999
                                                            Chennai-600 004

      Rating Criteria
      BUY         Stock to generate return above 15% from CMP over the next 12 months period
      HOLD        Stock to generate return between 0-15% from CMP over the next 12 months period
      SELL        Stock to generate less than 0% from CMP over the next 12 months period

      Coverage Terminology
      IC = Initiating Coverage
      RU = Result Update
      EU = Event Update


                                                           www.rkglobal.in


    Disclaimer: This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be
    reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe
    these restrictions. Opinion expressed is our current opinion as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to
    update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that
    prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions
    and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that
    are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of
    publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true and are for general guidance only.

    While every effort is made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of information contained, the company takes no guarantee and
    assumes no liability for any errors or omissions of the information. No one can use the information as the basis for any claim, demand
    or cause of action. Recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Each
    recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an
    investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult
    their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. R K Global, its directors, analysts or employees do not
    take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any action
    taken on basis of this report.

R K Global Shares & Securities Ltd-Private Client Research | Equity Research                          For Private Client Circulation         3

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RU-ALL-Q3FY12-RKG

  • 1. Ashok Leyland Limited | Automobiles Result Update | 1st February, 2012 CMP-` 26.8 18.98 Not Covered Market Data* Ashok Leyland Limited (ALL) posted Q3FY12 top-line growth of Bloomberg Code AL.IN 29% YoY to `28797.9mn, while it’s EBITDA margin fell by Reuters Code ASOK.BO 116bps on Y-o-Y basis. ALL’s PAT stood at `669mn, an increase Sensex/Nifty Close 17431.8/5269.9 of 54% as compared to same period last year. Dividend Yield (%) 3.5 52 Week High/Low 29.9/20.1 ALL reported a 29% YoY (-6.9% decline on Q-o-Q) growth in its Equity Capital(` mn) 2660.7 top-line to `28797mn, on account of 23.8% YoY increase in volume Face Value (`) 1 sales. On a sequential basis, the volume decline by 1.5% while Market Cap (` mn) 75962.3 realization per vehicle declined 5.6% during the same period. Total Avg.10 day NSE Vol. 69150909 Source: Ace Equity, R K Global Research, *as on 1st Jan’12 expenditure for the period under review increased by 29% YoY, of which, Purchase of finish goods surged (150% YoY), manufacturing Key Market Ratio* cost rose (42% YoY) and raw material cost (20% YoY). However, Latest TTM EPS (`) 2.3 better product mix helped the company to increase its revenue. Book Value (`) 10.8 TTM PE (x) 12.5 Sales surge by 23.8% YoY, while exports beg off. 14.1% YoY . TTM PBV (x) 2.6 ALL MDV goods vehicle sales volume surged 23.5% YoY (-15.7% EV/TTM EBITDA (x) 7.6 QoQ) to 14309 units in Q3FY12. Company’s total domestic sales EV/TTM Sales (x) 0.8 increased 36.4% YoY (decline 1% QoQ). Passenger vehicle segment Market Cap/TTM sales (x) 0.6 also witnessed a slight fall in volume to 1.6% YoY (2.7% QoQ) to Source: Ace Equity, R K Global Research, *as on 1st Feb’12 6781units in Q3FY12. Share-Holding Pattern (%)* ALL’s average realization increased by 4.4 % YoY (a decline of Promoters FII's Public Others 5% QoQ) ALL’s EBITDA per vehicle rose 3.0% YoY (a decline of 36.5% QoQ) to `93575 in Q3FY12 compared to `90958 same period last year. While PAT per vehicle surge 24.6% YoY basis (- 55.9% QoQ) to `29309 in Q3FY12 equated same period last year. 34.1% EBITDA margin declined by 116bps YoY Operating profit for the 38.6% period under review stood at 7.4% to `2103.7mn in Q3FY12, a 10.7% decline of 116bps compared same period last year. However PAT margin increased stood at 2.3%, compared to 1.9% same period 16.5% last year. The EBIT margin increased 20 bps to 2.5% in Q3FY12. Source: Ace Equity, R K Global Research *As on 31st Dec’12 PAT fall on account of Bonus to employees. On sequential basis ALL’s PAT decline 56% QoQ to stand at `669 Price vs Sensex mn, compared to `1540.8 mn in Q1FY12, mainly due to increase in Sensex Ashok Leyland marketing expenses and Bonus issued to employees. While, 120 effective tax rate crashed by whopping 1490 bps on incurring 110 higher R&D capital expenditure boosting the net profit by robust 100 54% YoY. 90 Key Con Call Extracts: 80  Volume guidance for FY12 is 9% targeting 1.0 lakh vehicles and 70 aimed at achieving 10% operating margins. 60  The company is expected to launch 3 tonne LCV in Q1FY13. 50  The company hoped to ramp up production to around 4000 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 units per month, from around 3000 per month currently to achieve its market share target. Source: Ace Equity, BSE, R K Global Research  The company is targeting a 25% market share by the end of the Research Analyst: current fiscal year. Presently it is having 23% market share pan Aditya Vikram Jha aditya.jha@rkglobal.in India. R K Global Shares & Securities Ltd-Private Client Research | Equity Research For Private Client Circulation 1
  • 2. Ashok Leyland Limited | Automobiles Quarterly Financial Review Financials (` mn) Q3FY12 Q3FY11 Y-o-Y (%) Q2FY12 Q-o-Q (%) Vehicle Sold 22827 18437 23.8% 23167 -1.5% Revenue 28797.9 22272.4 29.3% 30945.7 -6.9% Total Expenditure 26694.3 20618.7 29.5% 27634.2 -3.4% % of Total Net Sales 92.7% 92.6% - 89.3% - (Increase) / Decrease In Stocks -1033.8 -1493.9 -30.8% 1629.4 -163.4% Purchase of Finished Goods 1564.7 609.0 156.9% 924.7 69.2% % of Total Net Sales 5.4% 2.7% - 3.0% - Cost of Services & Raw Materials 20756.6 17178.6 20.8% 20203.3 2.7% % of Total Net Sales 72.1% 77.1% - 65.3% - Operating & Manufacturing Expenses 2683.4 1885.8 42.3% 2361.7 13.6% % of Total Net Sales 9.3% 8.5% - 7.6% - Employee Cost 2723.2 2439.2 11.6% 2515.1 8.3% % of Total Net Sales 9.5% 10.9% - 8.2% - PBIDT (Excl OI) 2103.7 1653.7 27.2% 3311.5 -36.5% Other Income 32.3 23.2 39.1% 103.3 -68.7% Operating Profit 2136.0 1677.0 27.4% 3414.8 -37.4% Interest 550.1 474.8 15.9% 626.9 -12.3% PBDT 1585.9 1202.2 31.9% 2787.8 -43.1% Depreciation 866.3 646.9 33.9% 859.3 0.8% PBT 719.6 555.3 29.6% 1928.5 -62.7% Tax 50.6 121.6 -58.4% 387.7 -86.9% Profit After Tax 669.0 433.7 54.3% 1540.8 -56.6% EPS (`) 0.3 0.2 47.1% 0.6 -56.9% Margin Ratios Q3FY12 Q3FY11 Y-o-Y (%) Q2FY12 Q-o-Q (%) EBDITM 7.3% 7.4% -1.6% 10.7% -31.7% OPM 7.4% 7.5% -1.5% 11.0% -32.8% EBDTM 5.5% 5.4% 2.0% 9.0% -38.9% EBTM 2.5% 2.5% 0.2% 6.2% -59.9% PATM 2.3% 1.9% 19.3% 5.0% -53.3% Operating Metrics Q3FY12 Q3FY11 Y-o-Y (%) Q2FY12 Q-o-Q (%) Total Income/Vehicles 1261575 1208030 4.4% 1335767 -5.6% Material cost per units 909304 931746 -2.4% 872071 4.3% Staff cost per units 119298 132301 -9.8% 108566 9.9% Other exp. per units 117556 102285 14.9% 101941 15.3% EBITDA/Vehicles 93575 90958 2.9% 147401 -36.5% Net Profit/Vehicles 29309 23522 24.6% 66509 -55.9% Volume Performance Q3FY12 Q3FY11 Y-o-Y (%) Q2FY12 Q-o-Q (%) Production 23867 19291 23.7% 21242 12.4% Sales 22827 18437 23.81% 23167 -1.5% Domestic 19808 14924 32.7% 19939 -0.7% Export 3019 3513 -14.1% 3228 -6.5% R K Global Shares & Securities Ltd-Private Client Research | Equity Research For Private Client Circulation 2
  • 3. Ashok Leyland Limited | Automobiles For Suggestions, clarifications & your valuable feedback write back to us at: R K Global Research R K Global Institutional Sales R K Global Shares & Securities Ltd: R K Global Shares & Securities Ltd: Flat No.: B12, Park Tower, 503 & 504 Adamji Building, 67B Ballygunge Circular Road, Narsi Natha Street, Masjid Bunder (West) Kolkata – 700 019 Mumbai- 400 009 Board: +91 (33) 4017 4999 Board: +91 (22) 4360 2222 E-Mail: research@rkglobal.in E-Mail: inst.desk@rkglobal.in Locate Us… City Address Contact 501, Wall Street, near Gujarat College, Ahmedabad +91 (79) 4002 0996 Ahmedabad-380 006 Flat-5 Sagar Apartment, 6 Tilak Marg, Delhi +91 (11) 4310 0999 New Delhi-110 001 248, Ganpati Plaza, 2nd Floor, M I Road, Jaipur +91 (141) 404 0999 Jaipur-302 001 2 Saklat Place, Suite-9, Kolkata +91 (33) 4014 1999 Kolkata- 700 072 308, 3rd Floor Morya Estate, Opposite Infiniti Mall, New Link Road, Andheri West, Mumbai +91 (22) 4210 5555 Mumbai-400 053 No-163/2, Kutcherry Road, Mylapore, Chennai +91 (44) 4593 9999 Chennai-600 004 Rating Criteria BUY Stock to generate return above 15% from CMP over the next 12 months period HOLD Stock to generate return between 0-15% from CMP over the next 12 months period SELL Stock to generate less than 0% from CMP over the next 12 months period Coverage Terminology IC = Initiating Coverage RU = Result Update EU = Event Update www.rkglobal.in Disclaimer: This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. Opinion expressed is our current opinion as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true and are for general guidance only. While every effort is made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of information contained, the company takes no guarantee and assumes no liability for any errors or omissions of the information. No one can use the information as the basis for any claim, demand or cause of action. Recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. R K Global, its directors, analysts or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any action taken on basis of this report. R K Global Shares & Securities Ltd-Private Client Research | Equity Research For Private Client Circulation 3