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Presentation from Ahmed Benmimoun at parallel session on FOTs


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Presentation from Ahmed Benmimoun at parallel session on FOTs

  1. 1. Challenges in Analysing Data of ADAS in a Field Operational Test: the euroFOT Experience TRA 2010 Dr. Ahmed Benmimoun Institut für Kraftfahrzeuge, RWTH Aachen University Brussels, June 2010 Content • Motivation and Objectives • Data Analysis Challenges • Approach Incident Detection Safety Impacts • Summary and Outlook 11.06.2010 A. Benmimoun - TRA 2010
  2. 2. Objectives of Data Analysis (1/2) To quantify the impacts on EU level of the functions tested in the FOT on traffic efficiency, safety, environment and driver behaviour Taking into account various penetration rates Providing input for the socio-economic cost-benefit analysis (CBA) 11.06.2010 A. Benmimoun - TRA 2010 Objectives of Data Analysis (2/2) The following impacts will be quantified for use in the CBA: Traffic safety: changes in the number of accidents with fatalities, injuries (severe, slight) or material damage only Traffic efficiency: direct effects: travel time changes, but also homogenisation/reduction of congestion effects for environmental impact assessment indirect effects: changes in the amount of accident related congestion (based on changes in number of accidents) Environment: changes in fuel consumption and emissions of CO2 due to direct traffic efficiency effects due to changes in accident related congestion 11.06.2010 A. Benmimoun - TRA 2010
  3. 3. Data Analysis Challenges • Adaptation of the FESTA analysis methodology to the specific needs of euroFOT (different sites, functions, combined functions, data acquisition systems) • Automation of evaluation process, due to the large amount of data • Ensuring that all pre-defined research questions are addressed, despite vehicles being equipped with different sensors • Determination of incidents without video data • Translation of surrogate measures into accident reduction potential, for different penetration rates • Designing a complete analysis, from data acquisition through to impact assessment. This involves integrating various existing methodologies and filling in some remaining gaps 08.06.2010 A. Benmimoun - TRA 2010 Data Analysis Approach 11.06.2010 A. Benmimoun - TRA 2010
  4. 4. General Approach for the Impact Assessment The two following methods are planned for the impact assessment, which needs to provide input for the CBA: •Direct route: Impact assessment directly from the FOT-data (scaling up via situational variables) Direct impacts are more reliable because data from the FOT is used without assumptions •Modelling route: Impact assessment using models to assess effects for higher penetration rates (also includes scaling up via situational variables) Especially for functions that influence behaviour of other vehicles (e.g. ACC) the direct route is not sufficient Use of FOT data as input for models (e.g. changes in driving behaviour) Interaction with other (equipped and non-equipped) vehicles can be modelled Higher penetration rates than found on the road in the FOT can be modelled Possibility to analyse network effects 11.06.2010 A. Benmimoun - TRA 2010 Tools for Modelling Activties PELOPS 11.06.2010 A. Benmimoun - TRA 2010
  5. 5. Safety Impacts 11.06.2010 A. Benmimoun - TRA 2010 Determination of Incidents without Verification by Video Data •First approach utilised triggers used in the US FOTs a high number of false detections have been observed (verification by video data) •New approach is defined, which is based mainly on three different data sets 1. Use of data from driving experiments to determine what is an extraordinary driving situation (15 drivers, pre-defined test track with urban, rural as well as motorway areas) triggers and thresholds for critical situations 2. Re-production of specific critical situations on test tracks, in order to have further information on the pre-history of the situation and the possibility to check suitability of defined thresholds 3. Use of video data from the pilot to identify which factors lead to false detections and eliminate these by adaptation of triggers Reduction of false detection rate from 75 % to 5 % 08.06.2010 A. Benmimoun - TRA 2010
  6. 6. Determination of Incidents without Verification by Video Data 11.06.2010 A. Benmimoun - TRA 2010 Safety Impacts Risk Assessment Appraoch • Split accident risk by (combinations of) situational variables: Road type (urban / rural / motorway). Weather (normal / adverse). Lighting (light / dark). Time of day (morning peak / evening peak / night / rest of the day). Road form if road type is not motorway (link / intersection). Traffic situation if road type is motorway (congestion / free flow). Vehicle type (passenger car / truck). For trucks: empty / loaded. • Compute accident risk per accident type 11.06.2010 A. Benmimoun - TRA 2010
  7. 7. Safety Impacts Incident-based Appraoch Determine risk = (fatal) crash probability per kilometer, based on FOT data System Accident FOT data database Identify crashes that Identify conflicts Conflict rates can be prevented preceding crashes FOT Data Historical crash Risk rates and division Exposure Ratio over conflicts Prevention Ratio  P (C | S i ) ⋅ Pw ( S i )  R = Pwo (C ) − Pw (C ) = Pwo (C ) ⋅ ∑ Pwo ( S i | C ) × 1 − w  i  Pwo (C | S i ) ⋅ Pwo ( S i )  Additional information P(C) is the probability of a crash per FOT kilometer with/without the system 11.06.2010 A. Benmimoun - TRA 2010 Summary and Outlook Current status: • Basic methodology defined so far and described in a Data Analysis Plan for each Vehicle Management Centre in euroFOT Next steps: • Refinement of methodology and approach for impact assessment Translation of surrogate measures (changes in driver and driving behaviour) into changes in accident risk Translation of decrease of incidents into decrease of accidents ... • Test and evaluation of the methodology with data from piloting and FOT • Finalisation of methodology for impact assessment • Conduction of impact assessment for the considered functions • Conduction of a socio-economic cost-benefit analysis • Final results are to be expected for autumn 2011 11.06.2010 A. Benmimoun - TRA 2010
  8. 8. Thank you for your attention… 15 11.06.2010 Mohamed Benmimoun - TRA 2010, Brussels