QuantumTechnologies 2020 - Yole Développement

From Technologies to Markets
© 2020
From Technologies to Markets
Quantum
Technologies
Market and Technology
Report 2020 - Sample

22
ASIC: Application Specific Integrated Circuit
CAPEX: Capital Expenditure
CD: Critical Dimension
FPGA: Field Programmable Gate Arrays
FTTH: Fiber to the Home
GPS: Global Positioning System
InGaAs APD: InGaAs Avalanche Photodiode Detector
LOQC: Linear Optics Quantum Computation
MEMS: Micro Electro Mechanical Systems
MT: Magneto Resistance
NFS: Number Field Sieve
NISQ: Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum
NMR: Nuclear Magnetic Resonance
NV: Nitrogen Vacancy
O(n): Big O Notation (how quick the run-time grows relative to the input, N)
OPEX: Operational expenditure
PIC: Photonic Integrated Circuit
PNT: National Positioning, Navigation, and Timing
PQS: Programmable Quantum Simulator
PSM4: Parallel Single Mode 4-channel
QaaS: Quantum As A Service
QC: Quantum Computer
QCL: Quantum Cascade Laser Quantum Technologies | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020
GLOSSARIES AND DEFINITIONS
QKD: Quantum Key Distribution
QRNG: Quantum Random Number Generator
QTRL: Quantum Technology Readiness Level
RF: radio frequency
RNG: Random Number Generator
SERF: spin-exchange relaxation-free
SME: Small and Medium Enterprise
SNSPD: Superconducting Nanowire Single-Photon Detector
SQUID: Superconducting Quantum Interference Device
SQIF: Superconducting Quantum Interference Filter
TLS: Transport Layer Security
WDM: Wavelength Demultiplexing
UTe2: Uranium Ditelluride
We use the following definitions in our forecast:
• Quantum computing hardware: market value excluding software
• Quantum computing: includes hardware and software(QaaS)
• Quantum technologies: includes computing, cryptography and sensing

33
 Table of contents 2
 Report scope 3
 Report methodology 4
 About the authors 5
 Companies cited in this report 6
 Report objectives 7
 Who should be interested by this report? 8
 Glossary and definitions 9
 3-pages summary 10
 Executive Summary 13
 Context 56
 Quantum computer 64
o Architecture 67
o Achievements 77
o Examples 83
o Quantum algorithms 97
 Quantum cryptography 105
 Quantum sensors 122
o Quantum magnetometers and gravimeters 125
o Atomic clocks 133
o New developments 140
 Market forecast 147
TABLE OF CONTENTS
 Market trends 161
 Market shares and supply chain 167
o Fund raising 171
o Collaborations 184
o Players 189
o Market shares 209
 Technology trends 213
 Outlooks 242
 Appendices 245
 How to use our data? 249
 Yole corporate presentation 250
Quantum Technologies | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2020

44
We cover market forecast, players, technologies and market trends for the followings:
SCOPE OFTHE REPORT
Yours needs are
out of the report’
scope?
Contact us for a custom:
Quantum computer Quantum annealer Quantum sensors
(SQUIDs et others)
Atomic clocks
Quantum Key Distribution Systems

55
METHODOLOGIES & DEFINITIONS
Market
Volume (in Munits)
ASP (in $)
Revenue (in $M)
Yole’s market forecast model is based on the matching of several sources:
Information
Aggregation
Preexisting
information

66
Dr. Eric Mounier, Fellow Analyst
With more than 25+ years’ experience within the semiconductor industry, Eric Mounier PhD. is Fellow Analyst
atYole Développement (Yole). Eric provides daily in-depth insights into current and future semiconductor trends,
markets and innovative technologies (such as Quantum computing, Si photonics, new sensing technologies, new
type of sensors ...). Based on relevant methodological expertise and a strong technological background, he works
closely with all the teams atYole to point out disruptive technologies and analyze and present business
opportunities through technology & market reports and custom consulting projects.With numerous internal
workshops on technologies, methodologies, best practices and more,Yole’s Fellow Analyst ensures the training of
Yole’s Technology & Market Analysts.
In this position, Eric Mounier has spoken in numerous international conferences, presenting his vision of the
semiconductor industry and latest technical innovations. He has also authored or co-authored more than 100
papers as well as more than 120Yole’s technology & market reports.
Previously, Eric held R&D and Marketing positions at CEA Leti (France).
Contact: eric.mounier@yole.fr
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Biography & contact

77
1QBit,A*Quantum,A.P.E.,Alibaba,Alice&Bob,Alpine Quantum, Amazon,Ankh.1,Anyon Systems,ApexQubit,AppliedQubit,
Artiste-qb.net,AtomComputing,AtomSensors,Atos,Aurea Technology,Aurora Quantum Technologies,Automatski,Axion
Technologies, Beit.tech, Black Brane System, Bleximo, BlueFors Cryogenics, Bosch, Boxcat, Bra-Ketscience,BraneCell,
Cambridge Quantum Computing, Coax Co., ColdQuanta, ColdQuanta, Cryoconcept, Cryomech, Cryptalabs, Cryptomathic,
CryptoNext Security, D slit technologies, Delft Circuits bv, Deutsche Telekom, D-wave, EeroQ, Elyah, Entanglement Partners,
Entanglement Technologies, Entropica Labs, EvolutionQ, Fathom Computing,Fujitsu, Google, GTN LTD, h-bar, Honeywell,
Horizon, HP, HQS, Huawei, HyperLight, IBM, ID Quantique, imasenic, InfiniQuant, Intel, Intelline, ionQ, IQM, Isara, Jos
Quantum, Ketita Labs, KETS Quantum Security, KETS Quantum Security, Kiutra, Labber Quantum, LightOn, Lockheed Martin,
Luminous, MagiQ, MDR, Microsoft, M-Labs, Msquared, Multiverse Computing, Muquans, Netramark, NQCG, Nu Quantum,
NuCrypt, ONERA, Origin Quantum Computing, Orolia, Oxford Instruments, Oxford Quantum Circuits, Pasqal, Phase Space
Computing, PhaseCraft, Photec, PhotonSpot, Post Quantum, ProteinQure, PsiQ, PTB, Qandi, Qasky, Qbitlogic, Qblox, QC
Ware, Q-ctrl, QEYnet, Qilimanjaro, Qindom, Q-Lion, QLM, Qnami, Qontrol Systems, Qrithm, Qrypt, Qu&Co, Quandela,
Quantastica, QuantFi, QuantiCor Security, Quantika, Quantopo, Quantum Benchmark, Quantum Benchmark, Quantum
Circuits Inc, Quantum Communications Hub, Quantum Factory, Quantum Impenetrable, Quantum Machines, Quantum
Motion Technologies, Quantum Phi, Quantum Xchange, QuantumCTek, QuantumX, Quartiq, Qubalt , Qubit Reset LLC,
Qubitekk, Qubitera LLC, QuDot, Quintessence Labs, QUiX, Qulab, Qunasys, Qunnect, Qunulabs, QuPIC , Quside, QuSpin,
QxBranch, Rahko, RayCal, Raytheon, Rigetti Computing, Riverlane, Scontel, Seedevices, SeeQC.EU, SHYN, Silicon Quantum
Computing Pty. Ltd, Single Quantum, SK Telecom, SoftwareQ, Solid State AI, Sparrow Quantum, SpeQtral, Strangeworks,
Supracon, Syrlinks,TMD,Tokyo Quantum Computing,Toptica,Toshiba,Trustis,TundraSystems global ltd,Turing,TwinLeaf,
Universal Quantum,VectorAtomic, Xanadu, Xofia, Zapata Computing, ZY4
COMPANIES CITED IN THIS REPORT

88
WHY A QUANTUM TECHNOLOGY REPORT?
Information and its conduits are today an unprecedented arena of
political struggle, centered on surveillance and privacy. In this tense
context, it is likely that new way of ultra secure transmission will be
required: this is where Quantum Cryptography comes to play.
Also, the Big Data will require new way for searching and processing: this
is where Quantum Computing will come to play.
At least, sensors are becoming more and more sensitive and “classical”
technologies (MEMS …) are becoming limited. Using quantum effects will
overcome this barrier.
So the growing needs for more secure communications, more accurate
sensors, more performing computers … are requiring new approaches.
Using quantum phenomena brings numerous advantages in
communications, computing, simulation and sensing.
Quantum technologies are at the cross roads of numerous applications
and fields: engineering, software, education …
It is still an early stage technology but with a large potential.
This report aims at highlighting market potential for this technology.
Post-Snowden world
where information is
key
Big Data processing
and computing
New Sensing
Principles
WHY QUANTUM?

99
WHAT IS QUANTUM
Classical
mechanics
Relativistic
mechanics
Quantum field
theory
Quantum
mechanics
SPEED
SIZE
~3x108 m/s<< 3x108 m/s
>> 10-9 m
~ or < 10-9 m
Here, strange things occur. Energy, momentum,
angular momentum and other quantities of a bound
system are restricted to discrete values
(quantization); objects have characteristics of both
particles and waves (wave-particle duality); and there
are limits to the precision with which quantities can
be measured (uncertainty principle).

1010
THE 4 BENEFITS OF BEING QUANTUM (1/2)
Superposed states  can be in all possible states at the same time.
• With respect to a quantum computer, this means that a quantum register exists in a superposition
of all its possible configurations of 0's and 1's at the same time, unlike a classical system whose
register contains only one value at any given time. It is not until the system is observed that it
collapses into an observable, definite classical state. For example, the electron spin can be up and
down at the same time.
• THIS ALLOWS SUPERPOSED CALCULATIONS, THUS DRAMATICALLY
DECREASING COMPUTING TIME
Probabilistic system  any given state can be observed.
• There is a computable probability corresponding to the likelihood that any given state will
be observed if the system is measured.
• Quantum computation is performed by increasing the probability of observing the correct
state to a sufficiently high value so that the correct answer may be found with a reasonable
amount of certainty.
• A QUANTUM RESULT IS GENERALLY AN EVALUATION OF THE QUBITS
FINAL STATES.

1111
THE 4 BENEFITS OF BEING QUANTUM (2/2)
Entanglement  cannot be decomposed into more fundamental part.
• Two distinct elements of a system are entangled if one part cannot be described without taking the
other part into consideration.
• An especially interesting quality of quantum entanglement is that elements of a quantum system may
be entangled even when they are separated by considerable space.
• Quantum teleportation, an important concept in the field of quantum cryptography, relies on
entangled quantum states to send quantum information adequately accurately and over relatively
long distances.
• ENTANGLEMNT IS USED TO LINK THE QUBITS (2 or 3-qubits logic gate) IN
QUANTUM COMPUTING AND SYNCHRONIZE THEM.
These properties are exploited for quantum computers, cryptography and sensing.
Wave-particle duality  every particle or quantum entity may be
described as either a particle or a wave..
• It expresses the inability of the classical concepts "particle" or "wave" to fully describe the
behavior of quantum-scale objects.
• IT IS USEDTO INTERACT WITH QUBITSTHROUGH INTERFERENCES.

1212
Left: an ordinary bit is characterized by two states, 0 or 1.
Right: the qubit operates in a multidimensional universe, its eigenstates corresponding to the surface of a so-called Bloch sphere while its logical
states correspond to the poles of this sphere.
A qubit is not binary. It does not simply encode a 1 or a 0 as a bit does. Instead a set of n qubits encodes a superposition of 2n possible quantum
states.
o 2 qubits  4 possible states (0,0), (0,1), (1,0), (1,1)
o 3 qubits  8 possible states (0,0,0), (0,0,1), (0,1,1), (1,1,1), (1,0,0), (1,1,0), (0,1,0) or (1,0,1)
o Etc …
In general, a quantum computer with n qubits can be in any superposition (as Schrodinger’s cat) of
up to 2n different states. This compares to a normal computer that can only be in one of these 2n
states at any one time.
Another big difference is that a quantum computer result is a probability.
THE BASIC BRICK OF A QUANTUM COMPUTER:THE QUBIT
A qubit is a superposition of possible quantum
states.

1313
There are different technologies for qubits realization: superconducting, trapped ions, silicon based (can be based
on CMOS or Si photonics), topological, diamond vacancies.
o Number of qubits, coherence time and fidelity are the most important parameters to evaluate a qubit technology.
o Scalability is another important parameter for future manufacturing.
o Although photon qubits are interesting approach, the required PICs performance today are beyond what can be done.
THE DIFFERENT QUBITS APPROACHES
Source IBM

1414
CRYO SYSTEMS: CRITICAL ELEMENT OF QUANTUM COMPUTERS
Different cryo
systems from
quantum
computers
manufacturers
Quantum computing is also cryo technology!

1515
2023 2026
PHYSICAL QUBITS ROADMAP FOR QUANTUM COMPUTER
1998
2-qubit (Oxford University, IBM, UC Berbeley, Staford, MIT)
2000
5-qubit (TU Munich)
7-qubit (Los Alamos National lab)
12-qubit (Institute for Quantum Computing, Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics, MIT)
2006
28-qubit (D-Wave)
2007 2017
17-qubit (Intel)
50-qubit (IBM)
2018
72-qubit (Google « Bristlecone »)
49-qubit (Intel « Tangle Lake »)
128-qubit (D-Wave)
2009
1000-qubit (D-Wave)
2015 2025
1000-qubit (Intel)
10
100
1000
1
2016 2019
128-qubit (Rigetti)
3-qubit (Rigetti)
9-qubit (Google)
Graph below shows physical qubits roadmap (to be remembered: for a quantum computer, 50 logic qubits minimum are required  it means 5000 physical qubits)
5000
5000-qubit (D-Wave)
2020
54(53)-qubit (Google « Sycamore »)
2000-qubit (D-Wave)
50-100 qubits (Nisq,ATOS)
64 qubits (Tundra)
Quantum
annealer
11-qubit (Alibaba)
2-qubits (MISIS, Russia)

1616
QUANTUM COMPUTING APPLICATIONS
Consumer
Industry
Automotive
Aeronautics
Materials
science
Medical
and
Pharma
Finance
Energy
Defense
Advertisements strategy
Traffic simulation
Logistics, planning, distribution
Cybersecurity
E-charging station & parking search
Autonomous driving
IC manufacturing & design
Materials for airplanes
Weather forecast Consumer behaviour
Catalyst & enzyme design
Pharma R&D Patient diagnostics
Genomics
Trading strategies
Portfolio optimization
Asset pricing
Risk analysis
Market forecast
Fraud detection
Smart grid
Oil well optimization
Cryptography
A few examples of
applications for a
quantum computer
New materialsRadiotherapy optimization
Ascending phase simulation
Earth observation

1717
We have identified almost 200 industrial players worldwide involved in quantum technologies:
QUANTUM COMPANIES WORLDWIDE
26%
19%
8%
25%
22%
QUANTUM ACTIVITIES % (185 PLAYERS)
Q Computing
Q telco
Q sensing
Q software
Others (market reserach, consulting,
cryo systems …)

1818
After 2025, the emerging of QaaS and universal quantum computers will
boost quantum computing market.
Cryptography will be boosted by new use cases such as 5G.
2020 – 2025 – 2030 QUANTUM TECHNOLOGIES FORECAST
2020
2025 2030
$33M
$414M
$84M
$240M
CAGR
48%
$470M
CAGR 3%
$206M
CAGR
25%
$545M
CAGR 3%
$1,924M
CAGR 52%
$532M
$968M $3,255M
Quantum computing
Quantum sensing
Cryptography
$786M
CAGR 25%

1919
QUANTUM PUBLIC INVESTMENTS: MORE THAN $16BWORLDWIDE
USA: $1.2B
for 2019-
2024
(signed by
Trump in 2019)
China: $2B
since 2006
$10B
announced
for 2020*
*creation of the National Laboratory for Quantum Information Sciences
Europe:
flagship
project of
€1.2B over
10 years
Europe is setting up a quantum effort to compete with US. IN Europe, UK was first to invest in QC (2013).
China is also involved in QC (Huawei, Alibaba …). They are at 10-20 qubits development today, so late compared to US
but China wants to be world quantum leader in 2024 ($10B investment). Map above shows major investments. There are
also investment plans in Canada, Australia, Netherlands, Japan, Austria, Singapore.
GE:
€650M
Russia:
$790M
(Dec 2019, 5
years)
Israel:
$350M
(Dec 2019,
6 years)
France:
€1.4B
over 5
years
(January
2020)
UK: €1B
2014-
2024

2020
Quantum technologies are not new, at least for cryptography and sensing, but for computers it will be a real new
disruption compared to the traditional semiconductor supply chain:
o New physical principles will be used
o Even if CMOS/photon qubits will be used, it is unlikely a “Moore law” will rule the evolution of quantum computers
o It will be mostly a B2B business and not a hardware market as for HPC
o Winners will be companies that will propose quantum services (similar to Uber business model!)
o The Dec 2019 announcement of Amazon is showing this trend: QaaS is going to impose itself through the big players
who will set up the entire software and service ecosystem.
o Several technologies may coexist because what makes the difference at this stage is not technology but service!
However, small companies involved in quantum will also find interesting opportunities:
o Quantum technology is also cryogenic technology! Companies developing cryogenic systems will have interesting
opportunities
o For sensors, future challenges will be lower cost for large volume market (otherwise it will only be an instrumentation
market)
o Quantum cryptography will find new opportunities in defense, banks, telecommunications.
o
QUANTUM IS THE LAST FRONTIER!
Quantum, the last disruption! Image courtesy of Microsoft

21
Contact our
SalesTeam
for more
information
21
Contact our
SalesTeam
for more
information
Silicon Photonics and Photonic
Integrated Circuits 2019
Neuromorphic Sensing and
Computing 2019
YOLE GROUP OF COMPANIES RELATED REPORTS
Yole Développement

22
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Email: chris.youman@yole.fr – +1 919 607 9839
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(India & ROA)
Email: onozawa@yole.fr - +81 34405-9204
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Email: levenez@yole.fr - +49 15 123 544 182
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Email: eloy@yole.fr - +33 4 72 83 01 80
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Email: ivan.donaldson@yole.fr - +1 208 850 3914
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Email: leroy@yole.fr - +33 4 72 83 01 89
o Email: info@yole.fr - +33 4 72 83 01 80
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