NIFTY FIFTY : - The Indian Equity benchmark Nifty 50 opened in a positive note on Monday up by 29 points or 0.33 per cent at 8612. Benchmark Index Nifty traded in a very
small range of 48 points on Friday, Nifty has taken support of its two month's low of
Equity Research Report 24 October 2016 Ways2Capital
1.
2. TECHNICAL TREND ( NIFTY - BANK NIFTY FUTURES )
NIFTY FIFTY : - The Indian Equity benchmark Nifty 50 opened in a positive note on
Monday up by 29 points or 0.33 per cent at 8612. Benchmark Index Nifty traded in a very
small range of 48 points on Friday, Nifty has taken support of its two month's low of
8550. The Global cues still remain weak which lead Nifty to break its 8550 level, Market
were weak in trading on Monday trading session where Nifty saw a fall of 105 points
from its last trading session High. The Point to be noted here is that there is a downward
gap existed at 8703-8681. last trading session, Nifty touched this gap area. A minimum
requirement for wave 2 is fulfilled. Now Need to watch market reaction at this gap area.
The market can take reverse any time from here on. On the downside 8550 breaking will
be the first indication of completion of wave 2 and begin of Wave 3 downside. Below
8550 spot, next key level 8350. Nifty at crucial level Cautious At Current Levels. Going
Forward Market started moving southward , as investors remained wary about a US rate
hike on horizon which made investors skittish, as a rate hike could affect liquidity flow
for emerging markets. All eyes are on the progress of GST , GST rates may be indicated
Although as per various reports, there may be 4/5 rates ranging From 40% with some
additional cess, it may take some more time for an overall consensus and another meeting
may be called in just before the Winter Parliament session to finalize it. As suspected in
last update, Nifty faced stiff resistance at gap area and reversing lower. Hence, most
probably, by taking into other technical indicators, upside capped at gap area and wave 2
ended at Thursday high. Now Nifty heading lower towards to break 8550 spot level.
Avoid taking long positions. Once 8550 taken out next week , then Nifty moves down in
one direction towards 8350. The crucial levels for Nifty is 8573-8447 down side and
8732-8812 Up side.
BANK NIFTY : - The Bank Nifty opened in a Positive on Monday up by 116 points or
0.59 per cent at 19136. Banking stocks were the strongest, with Bank Nifty jumping up to
19500 with massive short covering seen in various Call strikes that led to a decrease in
open interest. The PSU Banks have always remained in the radar, be it buying or selling.
because of the Financial Performance of Public Sector Banks has been a concern ,
Investors have remained perplexed about holding the holding PSU Banks stocks. Public
sector banks which made losses or experienced sharp dip profit in the last fiscal could
lose their ability to service coupon on additional tier 1 bonds issued under Basel III
Monday, 24 October 2016
3. capital regulations. rating company Crisil said in a report. Stung by high cost of funds
when demand for loans is at the weakest in nearly a decade, state-run banks, which used to
rely on long-term fixed deposits, are increasingly not accepting any fixed deposit beyond
five years. Bank Nifty has to sustain above 19600-19650* area for further rally towards
19850-19950/20000 & 20200-20350 for the Next Week. On the other side, sustain below
19450-19400 zone, Bank Nifty may further fall towards 19300-19200 & 19040-18900
zone as the session progress. The Crucial level for Bank Nifty is 19850-19960 up side and
19080-19260 is down side.
TECHNICAL VIEW (NIFTY- BANK NIFTY FUTURES )
NIFTY
DAILY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
8824 8722 8671 8620 8518
WEEKLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
9290 8850 8630 8410 7970
MONTHLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
9557 8957 8657 8357 7757
BANK NIFTY
DAILY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
19969 19713 19585 19457 19201
WEEKLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
21579 20151 19437 18723 17295
MONTHLY R2 R1 PP S1 S2
22360 20394 19411 18428 16462
4. MOVING AVERAGE 21 DAYS 50 DAYS 100 DAYS 200 DAYS
NIFTY 8700 8709 8527 8050
BANK NIFTY 19500 19498 18817 17255
PARABOLIC SAR DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
NIFTY 8762 8935 7493
BANK NIFTY 18824 20344 15079
PATTERN FORMATION ( NIFTY )
Detail of Chart - On the above given daily Chart of Nifty has Applied Bollinger Band
along with Parabolic SAR both the indicators are Leading Indicators, and gives signal of
Buying or Selling. Although the Uses of Bollinger Band differ from traders to traders
Some buywhen it break the Middle Band from below side and some buy when it break
Upper Band. We assume that the Breaking the Middle Band Usually a Bull side Signal as
we can see that. Although On the Above given Chart of Nifty both the Indicators are
indicating Bull Movement for next week. Now the market has Shifted in a Cautious
mode. However the Nifty Trend Now Seems clear toward the Next level of 8600-8680
both the Indicators are Indicating break above 8720 would be the Important level for the
Nifty. The Crucial Levels of Index For Next Week is 8753-8798 is Up side 8604-8555 is
down side.
5. PATTERN FORMATION ( BANK NIFTY )
Detail of Chart - On the Above given daily Chart of Bank Nifty has Applied the
Bollinger Band along with Parabolic SAR , The Bank Nifty Chart has also formed the
Bullish Kicker Kind of Pattern on the daily chart of Bank Nifty which clearly indicating
the Bullish Movement for the Index in Upcoming week. The Bank Nifty is has Touched
the level of 19900 three time in last week but was not able to Sustain. From here we are
Expecting that if Bank Nifty is able to break the level of 19800 could lead for the target
of 20200-20560 in Near-Term. The Crucial levels for Bank Nifty is 19900-20120 is Up
side and 19560-19480 is down side.
8. NSE - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ TOP NEWS OF THE WEEK
WPI inflation to average 1.5% this year: Nomura - Inflation based on wholesale prices
is expected to moderate further in the months ahead and is expected to average 1.5 per
cent this year, says a Nomura report. According to the Japanese financial services major,
despite adverse base effects the Wholesale Price Index-based inflation is set to moderate
further on account of lower food prices and still weak pricing power of firms. "In the
months ahead, we expect WPI inflation to moderate further despite adverse base effects
due to lower food prices and still weak pricing power of firms," Nomura said in a
research note. In its base case, Nomura expects WPI inflation to average 1.5 per cent in
2016 as against (-)2.7 per cent in 2015. Reversing its 7-month uptrend, wholesale
inflation eased to 3.57 per cent in September, as good monsoon helped cool food prices.
In September 2015, WPI inflation was (-)4.59 per cent. In August this year it stood at
3.74 per cent. "The positive WPI inflation surprise was mainly driven by a sharp
moderation in food prices, while core WPI inflation was unchanged," Nomura said.
Draft bill on resolution of financial firms credit positive: Moody's - The draft bill on
resolution of financial firms is credit positive for banks as it is an important step to having
a comprehensive framework in place for stressed financial firms, Moody's Investors
Service today said. After enacting a bankruptcy code for time-bound settlement of
insolvency cases in non-financial firms, the finance ministry last month released a draft
bill to set up a resolution corporation to address similar issues among financial firms.
"Currently, the resolution of financial firms in India is based on minor parts of legislation
enacted for other purposes," says Srikanth Vadlamani, a Moody's Vice President and
Senior Credit Officer. "This bill is therefore credit positive for Indian banks in terms of
enhancing overall systemic stability." In a report titled 'Draft Bill on Resolution Will
Enhance Systemic Stability', Moody's said based on the draft bill, bail-ins do not seem to
be the preferred form of resolution, with significant restrictions in place for their usage.
These restrictions include contractual bail-in clauses for instruments that may be bailed in
and requirements that bail-ins should be used only after attempts at recovery have been
made. Consequently, Moody's expects that the Indian banking system will continue to
function without an operational resolution regime, and banks should continue to be rated
under a basic loss given failure framework. Moody's also said the bill ranks depositors
above senior unsecured creditors in a liquidation scenario. In contrast, under existing
laws, senior unsecured creditors rank on equal footing with uninsured depositors.
9. Current account deficit likely to stay below 1 per cent of GDP this year: DBS report
- India's current account deficit is likely to stay below 1 per cent of GDP this year, largely
due to a sharp fall in the trade deficit as against last year, says a DBS research report.
India's trade deficit in September stood at $ 8.33 billion when the trade gap was the
highest in the last nine months. According to the global financial services major DBS, the
widening of the trade deficit will be "watched closely", especially at a time when the
services sector receiptsand private transfers are under pressure. "That said, a sharp fall in
the trade deficit vis-à-vis last year suggests this year's current account deficit is likely to
stay below 1 per cent of GDP from (-) 1.1 per cent in 2015-16," DBS said in a research
note. In September, exports went up 4.62 per cent to $ 22.9 billion, while the country's
imports contracted by 2.54 per cent to $ 31.22 billion, leaving a trade deficit of $ 8.33
billion. The trade gap was $ 11.66 billion in December 2015 while in September 2015, it
stood at $ 10.16 billion. Regarding inflation and the consequent policy action, the report
said that the Reserve Bank's policy decisions are likely to primarily take direction from
CPI trends.
$ 10 billion unhedged gap in foreign exchange deposit redemptions may put rupee
under pressure - The Indian banking system has left a $ 10-billion position unhedged
amid foreign exchange deposit redemptions, making the rupee vulnerable to a sudden
depreciation in the next few months. On the other hand, such a drop would act as a
booster for exports and possibly narrow the trade deficit although imports of oil and other
commodities would become costlier, said experts, some of whom suggested the gap may
have deliberately been left uncovered. Three years after the Reserve Bank of India sought
to shore up the rupee through foreign currency non resident-bank deposits, the country is
bracing for an outflow as these get redeemed. The rupee was at 66.72 a dollar on Friday.
Experts baffled by RBI move. The Indian currency was at 66.68 a dollar a week back and
may weaken to 67.50-68.00 a dollar by December, dealers said. According to a note
prepared by one of India’s top private sector banks, there’s a $ 9.5-billion gap between $
22.4 billion of FCNR-B maturities and $ 12.9 billion of forward contracts for October and
November. “There is high possibility of a systemic rupee depreciation in the coming
months on account of FCNR-B outflows,” said KN Dey, executive director at Mecklai
Financial. “The rupee has been steady for almost 10 months and a fall will boost exports
and in turn, reduce trade deficit.”
India is double-digit growth market for cargo deliveries' - India continues to be one of
the main growth markets for DHL Express which opened a new USD 100 million South
Asia Hub in Singapore today. India-led South Asian markets accounted for 30 per cent
growth in express cargo deliveries for DHL between 2012-15, the company's executives
10. said, adding that India itself is a double-digit growth market. The company, which
inaugurated the new 140 million Singapore dollar South Asia Hub here, serves India with
two dedicated daily flights to Bangalore and Delhi as well as commercial flights for
express cargo deliveries to Mumbai, the officials said. The two dedicated flights to
Bangalore and Delhi offers 195 tonnes per flight six times a week. South Asia accounts
for 30 per cent of the company's daily shipment growth between 2012-2015, said Ken
Lee, CEO of DHL Express Asia Pacific. Oceania accounts 50 per cent and South East
Asia about 25 per cent, he said. "India is a double-digit growth market for DHL Express,"
said Sean Wall, executive vice president for network, operations and aviation for Asia
Pacific.
India Inc's Janyary-September M&A tally at $ 28 billion: Grant Thornton - Corporate
India's shopping spree continued unabated in the third quarter of this year, with merger
and acquisition deals worth $ 12.17 billion were announced, taking the year-to-date tally
to $ 28 billion, says a report. In the July-September quarter, there were 140 M&A deals
worth $ 12.17 billion as against 146 M&A transactions worth $ 6.87 billion in the year-
ago period. According to global audit, tax and assurance firm Grant Thornton, the
significant rise in M&A deal activity in the September quarter was majorly driven by $ 3
billion deals contributing to over 50 per cent of the values. The quarter also witnessed
two mega mergers in telecom and banking sectors. Overall M&A values saw a 33 per
cent rise in the first nine months of this year largely owing to increase in domestic deals
along with big ticket mergers and restructurings. During January-September period, there
were 244 domestic deals worth $ 11.84 billion, and 13 mergers and internal restructuring
worth $ 4.94 billion. However, cross border M&A activity declined by 13 per cent owing
to fewer big-ticket transactions. There were 17 deals over $ 100 million so far this year as
compared to 26 such deals in January-September 2015.
✍ TOP ECONOMY NEWS
Indian companies have raised close to Rs. 240 billion by issuing non-convertible
debentures in the first half of the current fiscal to meet their business needs.
The crucial three-day meeting of the all-powerful GST Council, will decide on the tax
rate and sort out issues like compensation formula for rollout of the new indirect tax
regime from April 1, 2017.
The Centre is likely to propose a four tier-tax structure under the goods and service tax
11. with a peak slab of 26%. Almost a fourth of all taxable goods, including those consumed
by the middle class, may come under the peak rate.
Consumer Price Index based inflation eased to 4.31% in September as against 5.05% in
August. It was 4.41% in September 2015.
Net direct tax collections grew 8.95% in the first half of the fiscal, amounting to Rs. 3.27
trillion.
The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs cleared a proposal to come up with a new
mechanism for revision of ethanol price for supply to public sector oil marketing
companies to carry out the Ethanol Blended Petrol programme. Through this, the prices
of ethanol for blending will be cut by about 21% from December 1.
The country plans to more than double its liquefied natural gas import capacity to 50 MT
in the next one year.
India's rooftop solar energy capacity has crossed 1 GW mark this year with 513 MW
generation capacity added over the past 12 months.
The much-awaited decision on GST rates did not come at the last day of the third round
of GST Council meeting. These will be discussed further at the next meeting of the
Council, slated for November three and four.
Banks in India will either replace or ask users to change the security codes of as many as
3.2mn debit cards in what's emerging as one of the biggest ever breaches of financial data
in India.
Reserve Bank of India has eased norms for foreign investment in start-ups. The banking
regulator said that any Foreign Venture Capital Investors which is registered under the
Securities and Exchange Board of India Regulations can invest in equity or equity linked
instrument or debt instrument issued by an Indian 'start-up' irrespective of the sector in
which the start-up is engaged. They will not require any approval from RBI.
Union Labour Minister said that the Employees Provident Fund Organisation has invested
over Rs. 90 billion in Exchange Traded Funds till September 30 this year with a Return
on Investment of 9.43%.
12. Simplifying external commercial borrowing norms, RBI delegated powers to banks to
approve requests from borrowers for extension of matured but unpaid ECB.
✍ TOP CORPORATE NEWS -
After establishing itself in benzene-based derivatives for over three decades, Aarti
Industries Limited diversified into toluene-based derivatives in this financial year by
setting up 30,000 tpa greenfield capacity at Jhagadia Gujarat.
Suven Life Sciences Limited has been granted one product patent each by Europe and
Israel for a drug used in the treatment of neuro-degenerative diseases.
Vedanta group company Cairn India Limited plea for permission to export excess
crude from its oil field in Rajasthan was dismissed by the Delhi High Court.
Cochin Shipyard Limited has signed a MoU with Engineers India Limited for design
and construction of small-scale LNG carriers.
Ceat Limited has introduced a new range of puncture-safe tyres for motorcycles, thereby
creating a new segment.
ABG Shipyard Limited will soon be getting a new owner as promoters of the company
are in advance talks with a Russian shipbuilder for sale of the controlling stake.
PTC India Financial Services Limited has taken recourse to SARFAESI law to recover
stressed loans from two power projects after the Centre in August explicitly allowed
certain NBFCs to use this route for recovery of dues.
Apollo Health and Lifestyle, a subsidiary of Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Limited, is
planning to raise Rs. 4.50 billion by selling the equity in the company. The company aims
to double the network of clinics to 150 centres in the next three years by utilising these
funds.
Granules India Limited said its Gagillapur facility in Hyderabad has completed USFDA
inspection without any observations.
Ashok Leyland Limited launched ‘Circuit’ Series – first Electric Bus Made in India.
13. IFCI Limited lowered short-term lending rate by a steep 0.80% following the 0.25%
repo rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India.
Jet Airways Limited is set to introduce wide-body services on the busiest domestic
routes in a move that will significantly enhance connectivity.
After Maruti Suzuki India Limited signed a pact with the government for transportation
of vehicles through inland waterways, Mahindra & Mahindra and Honda are also
trying for one.
Shriram EPC Limited has bagged a Rs. 0.61 billion contract for a water supply scheme
in Bengaluru. It has bagged the contract for a water supply scheme to Robertsonpet City
under the Centre’s Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation scheme.
Nokia has bagged USD 230 million 4G network deal from Bharti Airtel Limited in nine
telecom service areas.
Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries Limited announced a new collaboration with
International Centre for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology for development of
dengue vaccine targeted against all four serotypes of the virus.
L&T Technology Services Limited, an arm of Larsen and Toubro, has secured a multi-
million dollar contract from a large global semi-conductor company to provide
verification support on their expansive portfolio of offerings and products.
Bharti Airtel Limited launched a 10 GB data offer for Rs. 259 for consumers buying a
new 4G mobile device, offering data at effectively just over Rs. 25 a GB to take on
aggressive pricing from new entrant Reliance Jio Infocomm.
Coal India Limited will begin special spot e-auction of coal and will put on offer 20 MT
of the fossil fuel for various sectors, including power, amid government’s efforts for 24x7
power to all.
Hindustan Zinc Limited will come out with its specialised product -- zinc die casting
alloy -- through which it looks to meet requirements of auto, household appliances and
defence sectors.
14. The government will sell 15% stake in NBCC India Limited at a floor price of Rs.
246.50 /share, which is expected to fetch around Rs. 22 billion.
The Supreme Court directed Unitech Limited to refund the principal cost of flats to 39
buyers who had booked apartments in a Gurgaon project seven years back and have still
not got possession of their houses.
Mahindra & Mahindra Limited said that it will buy 60% stake in Classic Legends , a
company engaged in manufacturing and marketing two-wheelers, for Rs. 60 million.
Suzlon Energy Limited announced a joint venture with Canadian Solar for developing
two solar projects of 15 MW each in Telangana.
The NCC-BGR Consortium has been awarded the Pachhwara North Coal Block Mine
Developer and Operator Project by the West Bengal Power Development Corporation
Limited.
Nestle India Limited said Maggi noodles in India has reported sustained recovery,
regaining market share in the country almost a year after it was relaunched following a 5-
month ban in 2015.
Wipro Limited has acquired US-based consultancy firm Appirio, a services firm with a
large offshore firm that helps corporates implement cloud applications such as
SalesForce.
Ashok Leyland Limited has won USD 170 million order from the government of
United Republic of Tanzania.
Quess Corp Limited said it will acquire stake in three companies – Terrier Securities,
Simpliance and Comtel Solutions -- helping it to offer increased services and expand the
share of the wallet from its clients.
Government has received over Rs. 324 billion in upfront payments for telecom spectrum
that was sold in the recently-held auction with five operators, including Bharti Airtel
Limited and newcomer Reliance Jio, paying Rs. 199.81 billion.
Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India has said that the final decision
of the surveyor in a claim payment case to Nectar Life Sciences Limited by New India
15. Assurance in a Rs14.30bn policy will be final. The surveyor has said that it is not payable
as the loss occurred due to delay in transit, which is an exclusion in the policy and not due
to fire.
✍ TOP BANKING AND FINANCIAL NEWS OF THE WEEK
A month ago, an official of Axis Bank Limited — India’s third-largest private sector
lender — received an unexpected telephone call. The caller, an engineer at Kaspersky
Lab, the well-known Moscow based cyber security firm, rattled off the names of several
Axis computers which, he claimed, have been breached. The Kaspersky man said his firm
had stumbled on the information in the course of a separate probe. When an Axis team
looked into the bank’s servers, it found out that there was indeed an unauthorised login by
an unnamed, offshore hacker.
Last week, Axis filed a preliminary report about the breach to Reserve Bank of India.
The bank has hired EY, the audit and advisory firm, to carry out an investigation. Till
now, there are no reports of any fund transfers, but the bank and EY are trying to figure
out the extent of damage, data loss if any, and most importantly whether the virus is still
crawling in the institution’s server zone, said a banker who is aware of the breach.
Billionaire Uday Kotak did something unusual last month. He signed off on his Kotak
Mahindra Bank valued at Rs 1.4 lakh crore for buying BSS Micro Finance, a tiny lender
which does not even have 1% of the assets the bank has. And Kotak is not alone in the
hunt for companies which make money out of lending to people who need a few thousand
rupees to do their business – like a vegetable vendor, a carpenter, or an auto rickshaw
driver. Those who minted money lending to businessmen in South Mumbai and in New
Delhi for their BMWs or Mercs, are setting their eyes on towns and villages like Sanchi
or Mettur. At last, the big banks in India are beginning to act on management guru CK
Prahalad’s ‘Bottom of the Pyramid’ story. Things may be falling in place for small towns
and villages which have been credit starved despite the lofty principles of making credit
available to everyone on which banks were nationalised.
India’s largest private sector lender, ICICI Bank Limited had tied up with Emirates NBD
— a leading banking group in the Middle East — to execute transactions in international
trade finance and remittance using blockchain technology. ICICI Bank Limited is the
first few banks globally to exchange and authenticate remittance transaction messages
electronically on blockchain in real time. The usage of blockchain technology simplifies
16. the process and makes it almost instant—to only a few minutes.
Public sector banks which made losses or experienced sharp dip profit in the last fiscal
could lose their ability to service coupon on additional tier 1 bonds issued under Basel III
capital regulations. rating company Crisil said in a report. A sharp dip in profitability and
mounting losses could wipe out the revenue reserves of some public sector banks, Crisil
said. As many as 13 of the 21 public sector lenders taking the State Bank of India and
its associates as a consolidated entity reported losses for fiscal 2016, and almost half of
them could do so again this fiscal, the rating company said.
Stung by high cost of funds when demand for loans is at the weakest in nearly a decade,
state-run banks, which used to rely on long-term fixed deposits, are increasingly not
accepting any fixed deposit beyond five years. This also reflects a dip in demand for
long-term loans for infrastructure projects like power plants or ports, which require
funding for anywhere between seven and twelve years, say bankers. Lenders like State
Bank of India, UCO Bank and Punjab National Bank are discouraging depositors
from locking up funds at a higher rate for longer periods. By not contracting long-term,
high-cost funds banks are also playing safe in a falling interest rate regime where
customers avoid borrowing for longer periods.
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