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IMPORTANCE OF GOLD
IN INDIAN ECONOMY
In the Indiansociety,life’searningsare spent in big
fat weddingsand 35-50 percentof the expenditure
spentfor a weddinggoesinto the purchase of gold
and other jewellery.Asa custom, the gold
jewellerygiftedtothe bride isalso displayedin the
weddingwhich symbolizesthe status of the family.
Like genesand the genetictraits, gold is passed
down from generations to generations.It is
consideredas an investmentand savings which
may come to rescue duringa huge financial crisis
of the family.
Gold is a precious metal with which mankind has had a long and very intimaterelation. Gold is considered as a
symbol of purity and good fortune. Most of the gold that the entire world holds lies in India. There aremany investment
areas such as stock markets, mutual funds, fixed deposits and government bonds amongst others, but people still prefer to
investin gold.The 1980 crash in gold was not felt in India becauseof the appreciation of the dollar againsttherupee
buoyed the domestic prices.The situation rightnow is similar,with the rupee havingfallen againstmajor global currencies.
Whilethis may not be good for the economy as a whole, a weaker rupee will prevent domestic gold prices from crashing.
Despite being a poor country, India has expensivetaste. In order to providea more global pictureof the sizeof gold imports
and whether as to India’s obsession with gold is justifiable, the study looks atthe gold demand alongsidesomeother key
economic variables.
Market trends ingoldprices
The gold rate in the market depends on the demand and availability of the metal. The gold pricehas become
unpredictablebut those in commodities market seem to have a better grip on this.Due to its appeal, gold has been
historically priced aboveother commodities most of the time.
Table I shows the gold pricehistory of the last20 years.The priceof 10 gm of gold in the year 1998 was Rs 3600
whereas in the year 2016 was 23100.The gold priceof 10 gm in August 2017 was 26,400.Initially theincreasein gold price
was less from year to year but there is a drastic increasein the recent years.
Gold Price History for the last 20 years for 10 gm (24k)
Year Price (Rs.) Year Price (Rs.)
1998 3600 2008 10870
1999 3960 2009 13100
2000 3980 2010 16500
2001 4070 2011 20030
2002 4320 2012 27230
2003 5390 2013 29190
2004 6165 2014 23850
2005 5910 2015 23950
2006 7160 2016 23100
2007 8890 2017 26400
Source: https://goldprice.org/gold-price-india.html
Main factors affecting the price of gold
Demand for consumer goods
Markets likeIndia havestrongdemand for usinggold in jewellery. Economic growth i n India increases disposableincome
and therefore demand for gold.As gold is a luxury good (income elasticity of demand > 1) then a risein incomein India
could lead to a bigger % demand for gold.
Investment
Gold is seen as desirableelement in an investment portfolio.Gold will hold its valueeven duringinflation.At various times,
investment trusts and individuals will havea greater demand for savingtheir wealth in the form of gold. This can lead to
higher demand for gold to store wealth. This investment demand is the primary factor behind the increasein priceof gold
between 2006 and 2011.
Inflation prospects
With inflation of 0%, money retains its value.However, if inflation increasesto 20%, then money (notes and coins) will
reduce in value.If inflation isvery high,then money can soon loseall its value.Therefore in periods of high inflation,people
will seek to switch out of cash and into physical assets which retain their value.The most importantinflation proof
investment is seen as gold.
Note, it also depends on the real interest rate. If inflation is6%,but interest rates are 8%, you can still protectthe val ueof
your savings in a bank.However, if you get a situation of high and volatileinflation,you aremore likely to have negative
real interest rates. A key issueis whether market fear inflation could get out of control .
DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF GOLD
"Demand is the relationship between priceand quantity demanded for a particular goods or services in particular
circumstances.For each pricethe demand relationship tellsthequantity the buyers want to buy at that corresponding
price.The quantity the buyer wants to buy at a particularpriceis called the Quantity Demanded. “Supply is the directly
proportion of pricewhen the priceof the commodity is increased then the supply of that product also increaseor visa -
versa."
ON THE BASIS OF GOLD COMMODITY
In the relation of gold the demand cannot affected or doesn't matter of price, demand and supply becauseitis luxurious
product and they always usablefor functions and many of areas.The priceof gold increases, the demand and supply also
occur in positiverange.
The term can be movable as follows:-
 When the priceincreases, the demand and supply move in upward direction becausegold is a luxuriousgood.
 When the pricedecreases,the demand is very high but the supply is lowdue limited availability of gold.
 The main concept is started from here to analyzethe demand and supply of gold in India.The priceis the main factors
which can be changingwhole styleof productsalein the market but gold is a luxuriousproductand the pricedoes not
matter there they r directly based on the willingness to buy the products.
 This is analyzing on the basis of previous data when the priceis 17000 rs.In india and whatabout the demand and
supply of the gold in market this will shown as follows:-
 It scheduleis roughly showingto how the relation between pric , demand and supply that will bearises on same
direction this is only for gold product not for other . It is the concept demand curve is always downward slopeand the
supply curvemove on upward. It means when the priceof commodity is increasethen demand is decreaseand the
supply is also increases butin that condition the demand and supply moved in same proportion .
THE MAIN OBJECTIVE OF GOLD DEMAND AND SUPPLY ARE AS FOLLOWS:-
When the priceis automatically increased in year 2005 then the consumers are simultaneously struggling.
In present time the market priceof gold is 19,171 Rs. per 10 gram, after hittinga record high of 19,257 Rs. Earlier in next
week.
In the time of festival the priceis increasethen the consumer is strugglingto buy but in small rangecapacity.
Basically in theseassion of dhanteras ,diwali the demand of gold is high and the consumer can buy without any price
problem.
BRIEF DISCRIPTION ABOUT HIGH PRICE CUT DEMAND:-
This condition doesen't seen in the gold market because when gold was a "barbarous relic"thegold pricestood at just
12000 rs.In that condition the various changes arecomingin the gold and silver market accordingto as follows:-
A CHANGE IN THE NATURE OF THE GOLD INVESTORS
JEWELRY
At the turn of the century , the jwelery and industrial gold buyers ,alongsiderural ,agicultural Indian demand, dominated
the gold price.In a developed country the gold was not bought for itself and its importance. That condition the major role
basically in jwelery,often the cheaper part of piece of jwelery. in that time the prices cannotrises in thatmuch, in that
condition the gold priceis high .itmeans when the priceof gold is high then the buyers arelow. The buyers are still there,
but they want in small volumeor range due to high priceof that commodity. In that condition the market are focuses in
middleclass person to increasethe capability power and creat high growth
INDIAN DEMAND
When they targeted to middleclass family to increasethe demand in that level of customer mind to focuses in that level of
customer. The market wants to increasethe efficiency and they also awarethatgold is traditionally valuablein indiaand
they aeare that customer can easily broughtdue to the need and knows the condition of market.
After that marketers can expect that the priceof gold is higher then doesn't affect in that market strategy becauseit is the
investment terms which is basically effortby Indian customers.They always analysethatwhen the priceis high then it
affect in supply terms.
WESTERN JEWELRY , COIN AND BAR DEMAND
Accordingto the analyser to analysethatin tradition the gold market cheap jewelry basically invested in to coins and small
bars is and they analyseto investingin that areas of Indian market.the Demand ofr gold is always protectthe wealth
andprotect the mony market loss to maintain and equal balancegenerated. The marketers also seen the quantity and
quality of demand dropped initially,as jewellery demand always declineor down faced in the market but is now gathering
pace and actually increasingon both fronts, especially if the marketer add the small coin and bar demand to it then the gold
moves up the ladder of exclusively and expensivedecorativeitems again higher quality gold jwelery demand (accepting
high prices) is growingagain.At the lastthe marketer seen that the demand of jwelery is always increases.And generated
high efficiency in the market.
2. A WIDENING IN THE NUMBER AND SIZE OF GOLD INVESTORS
GOLD EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS
The sizeof the market is high and largenumber of investors in the market and always wantto increasethe return in future
trend. In the modern changes the market priceof gold is always high butno effect in the consumption power they always
choosen gold and buy for future trend becauseit always slopein downward.There areso many factors which changes the
consumption and buyingpower of customers the main factors areas follows likeincomeand price. the priceof gold is
simultaneously increases butdemand is also movablein samedirections.
CENTRAL BANK
The story of central banks and gold is a sad one. As both politiciansstroveto establish a doctrinethatpaper currencies,with
no gold backing,better serve as money then gold does. By persuadingpeople that central bankers were capableof being a
satisfactory and the gold was a barbarous relic thathad no placeas money, they sanctioned dual policy of sellingand
sidelininggold as mony and acceleratingthe supply of gold to the point that the easy gold pickingwere exhausted . now
central banks have had to revert to their underlyingbelief that gold is a vital reserveassts ,particlurly when drems fade and
realities takeover .
Higher pricein their casehave led to a cessation of sales and subsidential buying.
SWITCHING FROM OTHER MARKETS TO THE GOLD MARKET
As a gold and silver prices risejust likea thermometer measuringglobal financial uncertainity and instability ,more and
more investors arentering these markets for the firsttime, not for profit. , but for protection againstsuch fears and in an
attempt to preserve the wealth they have. These investors come from the entire spectrum of investors acrossthelength
and breath of our world. This is the quintessential reason why demand for gold will riseas gold pricerise.
WHY ECONOMISTS USE ELASTICITY
"Elasticity means degree of level changes in the particularcommodities is called elasticity"
But here, we are discussed aboutchanges in the demand and supply of gold in demand and what are the various tools to
find out the degree of demand of gold in india.
THE BASIC USE OF ELASTICITY IN ECONOMISTS AS FOLLOWS:-
Economist wants to compare gold demand all the times.
Is gold demand more pricesensitivity then silver demand .
Is the supply of gold is equal.
An elasticity is a unit- free measure.
By comparingmarket usingelasticity itdoes not matter how we measure the priceor quantity in the Indian market.
Elasticities allows to identify the differences among markets without standedizingthe units of measurement.
THE ELASTICITY OF DEMAND MEASURE BY AS FOLLOWS:-
PRICE ELASTICITY OF DEMAND
INCOME ELASTICITY OF DEMAND
CROSS ELASTICITY OF DEMAND
PRICE ELASTICITY OF DEMAND
Degree of level changes by the priceof commodity . the gold commodity is directly not affected in the demand becauseit is
a luxurious goods.
Accordingto the gold the descriptions areas follows
Gold pricehave been risingthis year and this is thenews that dominates in newspapers . The lasttime gold prices riseat
such pace was in 1980.In factgold pricenever touched the hights they had reached in 1980 and in factwere at thei r lowest
in he year 1999. The firstpointis to be noted is thatboth gold and oil prices move in together . both were at their highes t in
1980 and while oil has become far more expensive that itever was , gold prices still nota very high compare to wher e they
were in 1980.The prices aretakingin high priceadjusted for inflation and notthe nominal prices thatwe see going up year
after year.
SECOND POINT to note is that gold prices elasticity is negative. Higher the priceof gold, higher is the demand for gold. This
is a uniquefeature of gold , as many other commodity whose prices go up sees loweringof demand . When prices risethe
most that the demand is the highest, pushingup prices further. In the year 2007 , gold prices went up by nearly 20 %
compared to pricein 2006 . Demand for gold went up by nearly 5 % . when people say prices goes up , they normally tend
to consume less of the good, includingessential items likeoil and petrol.
The nominal pricealways stay abovethe previous price,therefore gold is never seen as a risky investment compare to real
estate, the sharemarket and the money market.
Gold is a uniquemetal . ithas been the most attractivemetal for thousands of year. The roman empire and the Egyptian
civilization were known to have used gold more then 2000 years ago.
India is a growingprimarly country becauseof income growth in the country leadingto higher purchases of jwelery .
When the recession subsides and the industry looks up and real estates prices riseagain gold priceshould comedown from
the heights they occupy today.
SO GOLD IS SAFE INVESTMENT ?
THE ANSWER IS CLEARLY YES. AS gold prices do not come down in nominal terms . however as the economy improves and
other forms of investment become attractive , the return on gold come down drastically and may sometimes in real terms
become negative . however jewellery has a sentimental valueattached to ittoo, therefore even when pricecome down ,
people remain proud of their gold purchases .Buying gold makes sense during the time the rest of the economy is receding,
but when economic growth and industrial growth is handsome. likein india now, investingin gold might deliver the lowest
returns that one could have obtained . however , this return is in all likelihood isri sk free,therefore it makes sensefor
those who liketo avoid risk .it is importantto remember that usually higher the risk ,higher is the rate of return for any
investment.
At lastitis simply explain thatthe priceof the commodity is increasethen the gold is not affected becauseit is type of
investments in the market and always given positivereturn . so it is future profitgenerated investments which is always
given better and high return to the customers.
THE MAIN ADVANTAGES OF THE GOLD AND NOT AFFECTED PRICE AS FOLLOWS:-
THEY ALWAYS GIVEN POSITVE RETURN TO THE BUYERS
IT IS THE INVESTMENT FOR FUTURE BENEFITS
THEY ALWAYS GIVEN POSITIVE GROWTH PRICE IN THE MARKETS.
THE PRICE CAN NOT AFFECT TO BUY THAT PRODUCT.
INCOME ELASTICITY OF DEMAND
"As a person's incomerises , he or she can buy more goods ata given priceat any particular time. but the ability to buy
more goods does not necessarily imply the willingness to do so" .
It means when then the consumer's income is rises or dicreases then directly affected to consumption capacity.If the
demand of the goods rises as incomerises,then that good called a "normal goods". Also the demand for the normal goods
falls asincomefalls.the demand for a normal goods and incomes are directly related.
The demand for a inferior goods income rises and good falls .the demand for an inferior goods and income are inversely
affected.
SOME IMPORTANT ASSPECTS WHICH AFFECT INCOME ELASTICITY OF DEMAND AS FOLLOWS:-
PREFRENCES:- People's preferences affect the amount of good they arewillingto buy at a particularprice.A change in
favour of goods shiftthe demand curve rightward.But in the gold commodity the income is doesen't affected because the
always showwhen the consumer's income is rises thend the demand is also increasesand visa versa becauseitis a
investments which wa BENEFITTED FOR FUTURE.
NUMBERS OF BUYERS:- The demand for a goods in a particular marketis related to the number of buyers in the area . The
more buyers, the higher demand , whilethe fewer buyers , the lower the demand .
EXPECTATION OF FUTURE PRICE:- Buyers who expect the priceof the goods to be higher next month may buy the good now
thus increasingthe current demand for that particular goods.Buyers who expect the priceof the good to be lower next
month may wait until next month.
POPULATION :- Large no. Of buyers are in Indian market the customer's and population areso high in Indian market .
Examples:- india havecreated so much demanded for goods and services becauseof its massivepopulation.
ADVERTISING:- An increasein a firm's effective advertisingwill becausein demand for the productbeing advertise. For
examples :- Indian havebeen buying gold for the lastfew years . however, there is no another addition costareincluded in
that luxurious good.
CROSS ELASTICITY OF DEMAND
It means when the priceof the substitute commodity is increasethen the other product is dicreases and visaversa .there is
two commodities in iindiais silwer and gold .
When the priceof the silver is dicreasesthen the silver commodity is increases and gold priceis dicreases then the demand
of that commodity is increases.Nowthe bullion banker is netshortgold when he conduct this operations .remember he
borrowed gold and now he has a financial assets .he is making5 % return on the spread , but he now has a gold pricerisk .
as a banker he is not normally business of puttingon speculativepositions.so basically,in doingthis operation butbulli on
bankers has a hedged the gold priceand he takes a small margin- likea half of %- from this intermediation . in doing so , he
allows privatemarket participants to go shortgold . that's why we elide the two phrases - goingshortin the gold market and
gold borrowing . the ultimate borrowers in the gold leadingoperation arethese shorts in the gold future and forward
markets .
Now we have a conservativeset of gold leadingnumber and we have a more aggressiveset of such numbers . our range of
estimates emplies that somewhere between 10000 and 16000 tonnes of the official sector gold position has leftthse results
way of leadingthe process .
TABLE 1 : WHY OFFICIAL SUPPLY/DEMAND EXCEEDS MAJORITY OPINION ESTIMATES AN ARGUMENT FROM THE SUPPLY
SIDE
Total Gold Loans Outstanding
BOE
GFMS
December 1993
4,750
1,600
June 1995
9,250
2,200
Note: All Quantities in Tonnes
This discrepancy was so largethattried to be conservativeand for no good reason, chopped the 9000 tonnes down to 6000
tonnes because that 6000 tonnes figures was already so far removed from the offi cial numbers . in any case, this bank
survey implied big, bigerrors in the consensus supply/demand balances and half of a lotmore gold lendingthan anyone
thought .
Now look , gold lendingbegan in earnest in the early 1980.By 1995 it was a process thathad been going on for more than
ten years . now, what if there were 6000 tonnes of gold loans - not 2000 tonnes of gold loans as implied by the consensus
supply/demand statistics.that mean that there had been 4000 tonnes more lending, most of itover the lastten year
period . gold lendingwas a small activity duringthe 1980 . it was a much bigger activity duringthe 1990,so obviously itwas
a business thatwas occurringon an increasingscale.if the discrepancy was 4000 tonnes over 10 to 15 years , 300 to 400
tonnes a year - well , then it was probably 200 tonnes a year in the 1980 and itwas probably nearer 600 tonnes a year by
1995.That mean supply and demand were underestimated by something like600 tonnes a year .
If we total these three demand items we arrive at the following:-
Table 2
Metric Tonnes
1999
WGC gold demand for jewelry, bar and coin in 27 countries
3,282
GFMS gold jewelry demand in an additional 7 countries 1)
268
GFMS global demand in all other uses (excludingjewelry, bar and coin)
458
Incomplete Global Demand Subtotal
4,008
GFMS Global gold demand
3,9852)
GFMS occasionally reportand usedemand . there survey for 1998 includingthe estimate used here . there was no
comparableestimate in their 1999 report . the WGC reported a largeincreasein global gold demand in 1999. Baseon wgc
glbal demand for trend this number is probably conservation .
GFMS total gold demand exceeds this total by 170 tonnes . they attributes demand to investigate in india .
From the above itis clear thatthe WGC survey plus selectadditional itemfrom the GFMS points to a total that exceeds
GFMS estimation of global gold demand . this subtotal still excludes jwelery demand in more than 100 countries.It also
excludes official coin and bar demand in these 100 or more countries as well as seven additional countries mentioned
above.
It is basically helps to understand the total demand and supply of gold in india and they arebasically helpfull for searc wh at
r the condition can not decrease the demand and supply of gold in the market. It always search and analysethe terms and
conditions which help to easily find outsurvey of gold in india or many countries.
ANALYSIS OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF GOLD IN INDIA
The ever increaseof demand and supply of gold in india ,various hypothesis havebeen put forward from time to time:-
Demand for gold has an autonomous character.Supply follows demand.
Demand exhidits incomeelasticity ,particlurly in therural and semi- urban areas.
Pricedifferential cretes import demand , particlurly illegal importprior to the commencement of liberalisation in 1990.
A partof the demand is caused by the need to stash away uncounted wealth and income.
Gold trades figures sincethe onset of liberalisation in 1990 shows thatwhilethe pri cedifferential narrowed from a high of
around 53.1 % in 1991 to about 5-10 % currently the import volumes riseunabated.
Gold demand in india increased by an annual compound rate of around 15 % from 1990 to 1998 during the period of
liberalisation with growth slowingthereafter. This was high , not only visa- versa the world demand growth rate of 3.05 %
but also in relation to the trend Indian .
GDP growth rate is 5.5 % and
Growth rate demand for oil is 3.8 %
Energy and sugar is 6 and 5 %
Gold imported officially for domestic useis now channelled almostexclusivevia theofficial agents or the authorisd
commercial banks.
Some aspects which helps to anlyze the gold demand and supply in india.:-
FUTURE TRENDS :- What is likely demand trnd for the future? Given the factthat gold demand is income-elastic,itwould be
safeto assumethat demand will increaseover the next decades. Since giftingjwelery at the time of marriageconstitute the
major components of demand, ball-park estimated could be on the basis of the no. Of marriagethat takes placeactually.
On the basis of assumption around 8 million marriager held in india per year. Gold is required for marriageby families of
different income groups.
GOLD MARKET IN INDIA:- The gold market in india is predominantly a marketfor buyingand sellingphysical gold.In the
whole salesegment, nominated agencies are the bulk importers. This market is resonabily efficientfrom the point of view
of distribution of bars and scrapsover the length of the country which takes placein a very efficient manner. Pricemanner
is also generally observein areas with identifical of duties and taxes. Gold leasingvolumeare small in comparision of
physical buyingand selling.Mostof leasingactivities taken by nominated banks on a back to back basis viasupply from
overseas.The market needs to develop for at leat two reasons:-
To provideworking capital atlowcosttogether with gold priceleading,not only to the exporter but also to jwelery
manufacture for the domestic market.
The existence of gold leadingmarket is pre-condition for arbitragefree pricingof gold forward in the local market.
ISSUE FOR THE FUTURE :- It would only be logical to assumethat the neeed for a review of the overall policy stancewith
regards to gold is now being increasingly feltin official circles.As with other areas of liberalisation ,the direction of change
will certainly bepositive,although itwould be difficultto imagineany specific timeframe. However the followingissuear e
liketo be the focus of policy.:-
Strengthening of the infrastructures and marketin physical gold.Moreassaying,refiningand recyclingcapacities of
international standard and accreditation areexpected.
Better protection for consumers,by way of the spread of hallmarkingof jawelery.The emphesis will continueto be on
more self regulation by jewellery manufacturingand retailers.
Further liberalisation thegold import is liveissue.Removal of all the remainingrestriction on gold imports has been
advocated by many of followinggroups:-
Trade liberalisation for gold is a pre requisitefor financial liberalisation.
There is no specific advantagein restrictinggold imports to the select no. Of nominated agencies.
If gold is imported farely under full fiscal benefits will accureto more deregulation of gold in india.
Going by Turkish example, free imports under OGL and free export are pre condition for establishinga foothold in the world
jawelery market .
REGULATION IN PHYSICAL AND FINANCIAL MARKETS IN GOLD IS ANOTHER MAJOR ISSUE:- Regulation in general means
formulation of norms by the regulatory for :
a. Risk assessmentand control the regulated institution.
B. Investors protections.
5. BRINGING THE GOLD HELD BY THE PRIVATE SECTOR IN TO THE ECONOMIC MAINSTREAM HAS RIGHTLY BEEN AN
OBJECTIVE THROUGHOUT:- Mobilization of gold by the gout. In the pastdid not yield any major longterm benefit. Any
government led mobolization has inherentdisadvantages.A better alternativewould be allowholders of gold to raise
capital fromthe bankingsystem by way of pledge. It would be inconsistentwith the spiritof liberalization to discriminate
againstthosewho saved in gold in past.A machenismcan be evolved where by banks leadingin deregulation of gold in
india.
6. IT DEVELOPED OF E- MAONEY :- It is possiblethata privatesector units of accountthat is linked to gold may come in to
existence in india,given the fact of huge privatesector gold stocks.It would be advantages to look in to this possible.
7. GOLD HAVE ANY OFFICIAL MONETERY ROLE LEFT IN INDIA:- Gold's role in currency issuewas braughtto a level of
insignificancein india.There is good evidence to support the view that gold is held as an inflation hadged in india.
BRIEF DISCRIPTION ABOUT ANALYSIS OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF GOLD IN INDIA
Demand for gold is likely to contain information regardinginflation expectations.Sincemonitory policy is reflected in the
growth of money stock and ultimately the rate of inflation,there is a casefor includinggold in the monetory calculus.It
need to analysethe advantages in includinggold held by the privatesector in the broad measure for liquidity,even though
gold is not anybody's liabilities.Also gold could beincluded in the index for the real effective exchange rate for rupees. They
also indicatethat:-
Other thingbe equal.
Gold importdemand has real effective exchange rate of the rupees.
This is the analysefunction where we analysehowto demand and supply of gold commodity can run in the market and
whoch factors affect to ush the demand and supply of gold in equal range. This is the chartwhich are showingconsumption
n different year and we aware that the consumption of gold in india and where they affect.
supply and demand table
CONCLUSION
In that demand and supply of gold in india we analyseand learn thatofficial sellin will "fill theboots" ot trend following
speculation in the gold market and the gold pricewill fall back towards its prior tradingrange.The global recession and
strong dollar which curb gold ,jewellery and bar demand have been facilitatingtheability of the official sector to keep the
gold pricelow.
The forces for higher gold pricewill build.Though it may not happen over the short run in the long run the dollar will fall-
and substantially in our view.A dollar declinewill lower than the priceof gold in countries outside,which will in turn
stimulatepriceelastic demand. The fear of weakness may also shiftofficial sector attitudes towards holdinggold as a
reserve assetrelativeto the currency. Many central bank feels uncomfortablewith the now higher shareof currency in
their official reserves.The huge and ever increasinginternal debtof india growingprospects of inflations.The central bank
has started objective of reducing its high reserve holdingof money, and it may be noteworthy that they have reported the
firstrisein central bank gold holdingin many years.As longas currency has holdingremained strong, central bank have fel t
no pressingneed to address their high mony holding,but an eventual reserval in the money exchange rate may change the
perception.
The supply will also liftthe gold price. Over the last4 year , the supply despitelow prices becausethere was a pipeline
project from the 1994-96 period of higher gold pricethe piplinehas nowbeen almostdepleted. In addition high grade to
improve cash flowat low gold price.High gradingincreaseoutput over the near term but ultimately reduces overall lifeof
mine output and brings forward in time depletion dynamics.
At lastitshows that the priceof the gold is increaseor dicreases then itdoesen't affect on the demand and supply of
commodity becauseit is the investment which providealways benefit to the customers, due to previous record which was
explain in previous topic and cover that pricecan'taffect on demand and supply of gold in india or any country.

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Gold Economy in India

  • 1. IMPORTANCE OF GOLD IN INDIAN ECONOMY In the Indiansociety,life’searningsare spent in big fat weddingsand 35-50 percentof the expenditure spentfor a weddinggoesinto the purchase of gold and other jewellery.Asa custom, the gold jewellerygiftedtothe bride isalso displayedin the weddingwhich symbolizesthe status of the family. Like genesand the genetictraits, gold is passed down from generations to generations.It is consideredas an investmentand savings which may come to rescue duringa huge financial crisis of the family. Gold is a precious metal with which mankind has had a long and very intimaterelation. Gold is considered as a symbol of purity and good fortune. Most of the gold that the entire world holds lies in India. There aremany investment areas such as stock markets, mutual funds, fixed deposits and government bonds amongst others, but people still prefer to investin gold.The 1980 crash in gold was not felt in India becauseof the appreciation of the dollar againsttherupee buoyed the domestic prices.The situation rightnow is similar,with the rupee havingfallen againstmajor global currencies. Whilethis may not be good for the economy as a whole, a weaker rupee will prevent domestic gold prices from crashing. Despite being a poor country, India has expensivetaste. In order to providea more global pictureof the sizeof gold imports and whether as to India’s obsession with gold is justifiable, the study looks atthe gold demand alongsidesomeother key economic variables. Market trends ingoldprices The gold rate in the market depends on the demand and availability of the metal. The gold pricehas become unpredictablebut those in commodities market seem to have a better grip on this.Due to its appeal, gold has been historically priced aboveother commodities most of the time. Table I shows the gold pricehistory of the last20 years.The priceof 10 gm of gold in the year 1998 was Rs 3600 whereas in the year 2016 was 23100.The gold priceof 10 gm in August 2017 was 26,400.Initially theincreasein gold price was less from year to year but there is a drastic increasein the recent years.
  • 2. Gold Price History for the last 20 years for 10 gm (24k) Year Price (Rs.) Year Price (Rs.) 1998 3600 2008 10870 1999 3960 2009 13100 2000 3980 2010 16500 2001 4070 2011 20030 2002 4320 2012 27230 2003 5390 2013 29190 2004 6165 2014 23850 2005 5910 2015 23950 2006 7160 2016 23100 2007 8890 2017 26400 Source: https://goldprice.org/gold-price-india.html Main factors affecting the price of gold Demand for consumer goods Markets likeIndia havestrongdemand for usinggold in jewellery. Economic growth i n India increases disposableincome and therefore demand for gold.As gold is a luxury good (income elasticity of demand > 1) then a risein incomein India could lead to a bigger % demand for gold. Investment Gold is seen as desirableelement in an investment portfolio.Gold will hold its valueeven duringinflation.At various times, investment trusts and individuals will havea greater demand for savingtheir wealth in the form of gold. This can lead to higher demand for gold to store wealth. This investment demand is the primary factor behind the increasein priceof gold between 2006 and 2011. Inflation prospects With inflation of 0%, money retains its value.However, if inflation increasesto 20%, then money (notes and coins) will reduce in value.If inflation isvery high,then money can soon loseall its value.Therefore in periods of high inflation,people will seek to switch out of cash and into physical assets which retain their value.The most importantinflation proof investment is seen as gold.
  • 3. Note, it also depends on the real interest rate. If inflation is6%,but interest rates are 8%, you can still protectthe val ueof your savings in a bank.However, if you get a situation of high and volatileinflation,you aremore likely to have negative real interest rates. A key issueis whether market fear inflation could get out of control . DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF GOLD "Demand is the relationship between priceand quantity demanded for a particular goods or services in particular circumstances.For each pricethe demand relationship tellsthequantity the buyers want to buy at that corresponding price.The quantity the buyer wants to buy at a particularpriceis called the Quantity Demanded. “Supply is the directly proportion of pricewhen the priceof the commodity is increased then the supply of that product also increaseor visa - versa." ON THE BASIS OF GOLD COMMODITY In the relation of gold the demand cannot affected or doesn't matter of price, demand and supply becauseitis luxurious product and they always usablefor functions and many of areas.The priceof gold increases, the demand and supply also occur in positiverange. The term can be movable as follows:-  When the priceincreases, the demand and supply move in upward direction becausegold is a luxuriousgood.  When the pricedecreases,the demand is very high but the supply is lowdue limited availability of gold.  The main concept is started from here to analyzethe demand and supply of gold in India.The priceis the main factors which can be changingwhole styleof productsalein the market but gold is a luxuriousproductand the pricedoes not matter there they r directly based on the willingness to buy the products.  This is analyzing on the basis of previous data when the priceis 17000 rs.In india and whatabout the demand and supply of the gold in market this will shown as follows:-  It scheduleis roughly showingto how the relation between pric , demand and supply that will bearises on same direction this is only for gold product not for other . It is the concept demand curve is always downward slopeand the supply curvemove on upward. It means when the priceof commodity is increasethen demand is decreaseand the supply is also increases butin that condition the demand and supply moved in same proportion . THE MAIN OBJECTIVE OF GOLD DEMAND AND SUPPLY ARE AS FOLLOWS:- When the priceis automatically increased in year 2005 then the consumers are simultaneously struggling. In present time the market priceof gold is 19,171 Rs. per 10 gram, after hittinga record high of 19,257 Rs. Earlier in next week. In the time of festival the priceis increasethen the consumer is strugglingto buy but in small rangecapacity. Basically in theseassion of dhanteras ,diwali the demand of gold is high and the consumer can buy without any price problem. BRIEF DISCRIPTION ABOUT HIGH PRICE CUT DEMAND:-
  • 4. This condition doesen't seen in the gold market because when gold was a "barbarous relic"thegold pricestood at just 12000 rs.In that condition the various changes arecomingin the gold and silver market accordingto as follows:- A CHANGE IN THE NATURE OF THE GOLD INVESTORS JEWELRY At the turn of the century , the jwelery and industrial gold buyers ,alongsiderural ,agicultural Indian demand, dominated the gold price.In a developed country the gold was not bought for itself and its importance. That condition the major role basically in jwelery,often the cheaper part of piece of jwelery. in that time the prices cannotrises in thatmuch, in that condition the gold priceis high .itmeans when the priceof gold is high then the buyers arelow. The buyers are still there, but they want in small volumeor range due to high priceof that commodity. In that condition the market are focuses in middleclass person to increasethe capability power and creat high growth INDIAN DEMAND When they targeted to middleclass family to increasethe demand in that level of customer mind to focuses in that level of customer. The market wants to increasethe efficiency and they also awarethatgold is traditionally valuablein indiaand they aeare that customer can easily broughtdue to the need and knows the condition of market. After that marketers can expect that the priceof gold is higher then doesn't affect in that market strategy becauseit is the investment terms which is basically effortby Indian customers.They always analysethatwhen the priceis high then it affect in supply terms. WESTERN JEWELRY , COIN AND BAR DEMAND Accordingto the analyser to analysethatin tradition the gold market cheap jewelry basically invested in to coins and small bars is and they analyseto investingin that areas of Indian market.the Demand ofr gold is always protectthe wealth andprotect the mony market loss to maintain and equal balancegenerated. The marketers also seen the quantity and quality of demand dropped initially,as jewellery demand always declineor down faced in the market but is now gathering pace and actually increasingon both fronts, especially if the marketer add the small coin and bar demand to it then the gold moves up the ladder of exclusively and expensivedecorativeitems again higher quality gold jwelery demand (accepting high prices) is growingagain.At the lastthe marketer seen that the demand of jwelery is always increases.And generated high efficiency in the market. 2. A WIDENING IN THE NUMBER AND SIZE OF GOLD INVESTORS GOLD EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS The sizeof the market is high and largenumber of investors in the market and always wantto increasethe return in future trend. In the modern changes the market priceof gold is always high butno effect in the consumption power they always choosen gold and buy for future trend becauseit always slopein downward.There areso many factors which changes the consumption and buyingpower of customers the main factors areas follows likeincomeand price. the priceof gold is simultaneously increases butdemand is also movablein samedirections. CENTRAL BANK The story of central banks and gold is a sad one. As both politiciansstroveto establish a doctrinethatpaper currencies,with no gold backing,better serve as money then gold does. By persuadingpeople that central bankers were capableof being a satisfactory and the gold was a barbarous relic thathad no placeas money, they sanctioned dual policy of sellingand
  • 5. sidelininggold as mony and acceleratingthe supply of gold to the point that the easy gold pickingwere exhausted . now central banks have had to revert to their underlyingbelief that gold is a vital reserveassts ,particlurly when drems fade and realities takeover . Higher pricein their casehave led to a cessation of sales and subsidential buying. SWITCHING FROM OTHER MARKETS TO THE GOLD MARKET As a gold and silver prices risejust likea thermometer measuringglobal financial uncertainity and instability ,more and more investors arentering these markets for the firsttime, not for profit. , but for protection againstsuch fears and in an attempt to preserve the wealth they have. These investors come from the entire spectrum of investors acrossthelength and breath of our world. This is the quintessential reason why demand for gold will riseas gold pricerise. WHY ECONOMISTS USE ELASTICITY "Elasticity means degree of level changes in the particularcommodities is called elasticity" But here, we are discussed aboutchanges in the demand and supply of gold in demand and what are the various tools to find out the degree of demand of gold in india. THE BASIC USE OF ELASTICITY IN ECONOMISTS AS FOLLOWS:- Economist wants to compare gold demand all the times. Is gold demand more pricesensitivity then silver demand . Is the supply of gold is equal. An elasticity is a unit- free measure. By comparingmarket usingelasticity itdoes not matter how we measure the priceor quantity in the Indian market. Elasticities allows to identify the differences among markets without standedizingthe units of measurement. THE ELASTICITY OF DEMAND MEASURE BY AS FOLLOWS:- PRICE ELASTICITY OF DEMAND INCOME ELASTICITY OF DEMAND CROSS ELASTICITY OF DEMAND PRICE ELASTICITY OF DEMAND Degree of level changes by the priceof commodity . the gold commodity is directly not affected in the demand becauseit is a luxurious goods. Accordingto the gold the descriptions areas follows Gold pricehave been risingthis year and this is thenews that dominates in newspapers . The lasttime gold prices riseat such pace was in 1980.In factgold pricenever touched the hights they had reached in 1980 and in factwere at thei r lowest in he year 1999. The firstpointis to be noted is thatboth gold and oil prices move in together . both were at their highes t in
  • 6. 1980 and while oil has become far more expensive that itever was , gold prices still nota very high compare to wher e they were in 1980.The prices aretakingin high priceadjusted for inflation and notthe nominal prices thatwe see going up year after year. SECOND POINT to note is that gold prices elasticity is negative. Higher the priceof gold, higher is the demand for gold. This is a uniquefeature of gold , as many other commodity whose prices go up sees loweringof demand . When prices risethe most that the demand is the highest, pushingup prices further. In the year 2007 , gold prices went up by nearly 20 % compared to pricein 2006 . Demand for gold went up by nearly 5 % . when people say prices goes up , they normally tend to consume less of the good, includingessential items likeoil and petrol. The nominal pricealways stay abovethe previous price,therefore gold is never seen as a risky investment compare to real estate, the sharemarket and the money market. Gold is a uniquemetal . ithas been the most attractivemetal for thousands of year. The roman empire and the Egyptian civilization were known to have used gold more then 2000 years ago. India is a growingprimarly country becauseof income growth in the country leadingto higher purchases of jwelery . When the recession subsides and the industry looks up and real estates prices riseagain gold priceshould comedown from the heights they occupy today. SO GOLD IS SAFE INVESTMENT ? THE ANSWER IS CLEARLY YES. AS gold prices do not come down in nominal terms . however as the economy improves and other forms of investment become attractive , the return on gold come down drastically and may sometimes in real terms become negative . however jewellery has a sentimental valueattached to ittoo, therefore even when pricecome down , people remain proud of their gold purchases .Buying gold makes sense during the time the rest of the economy is receding, but when economic growth and industrial growth is handsome. likein india now, investingin gold might deliver the lowest returns that one could have obtained . however , this return is in all likelihood isri sk free,therefore it makes sensefor those who liketo avoid risk .it is importantto remember that usually higher the risk ,higher is the rate of return for any investment. At lastitis simply explain thatthe priceof the commodity is increasethen the gold is not affected becauseit is type of investments in the market and always given positivereturn . so it is future profitgenerated investments which is always given better and high return to the customers. THE MAIN ADVANTAGES OF THE GOLD AND NOT AFFECTED PRICE AS FOLLOWS:- THEY ALWAYS GIVEN POSITVE RETURN TO THE BUYERS IT IS THE INVESTMENT FOR FUTURE BENEFITS THEY ALWAYS GIVEN POSITIVE GROWTH PRICE IN THE MARKETS. THE PRICE CAN NOT AFFECT TO BUY THAT PRODUCT. INCOME ELASTICITY OF DEMAND "As a person's incomerises , he or she can buy more goods ata given priceat any particular time. but the ability to buy more goods does not necessarily imply the willingness to do so" .
  • 7. It means when then the consumer's income is rises or dicreases then directly affected to consumption capacity.If the demand of the goods rises as incomerises,then that good called a "normal goods". Also the demand for the normal goods falls asincomefalls.the demand for a normal goods and incomes are directly related. The demand for a inferior goods income rises and good falls .the demand for an inferior goods and income are inversely affected. SOME IMPORTANT ASSPECTS WHICH AFFECT INCOME ELASTICITY OF DEMAND AS FOLLOWS:- PREFRENCES:- People's preferences affect the amount of good they arewillingto buy at a particularprice.A change in favour of goods shiftthe demand curve rightward.But in the gold commodity the income is doesen't affected because the always showwhen the consumer's income is rises thend the demand is also increasesand visa versa becauseitis a investments which wa BENEFITTED FOR FUTURE. NUMBERS OF BUYERS:- The demand for a goods in a particular marketis related to the number of buyers in the area . The more buyers, the higher demand , whilethe fewer buyers , the lower the demand . EXPECTATION OF FUTURE PRICE:- Buyers who expect the priceof the goods to be higher next month may buy the good now thus increasingthe current demand for that particular goods.Buyers who expect the priceof the good to be lower next month may wait until next month. POPULATION :- Large no. Of buyers are in Indian market the customer's and population areso high in Indian market . Examples:- india havecreated so much demanded for goods and services becauseof its massivepopulation. ADVERTISING:- An increasein a firm's effective advertisingwill becausein demand for the productbeing advertise. For examples :- Indian havebeen buying gold for the lastfew years . however, there is no another addition costareincluded in that luxurious good. CROSS ELASTICITY OF DEMAND It means when the priceof the substitute commodity is increasethen the other product is dicreases and visaversa .there is two commodities in iindiais silwer and gold . When the priceof the silver is dicreasesthen the silver commodity is increases and gold priceis dicreases then the demand of that commodity is increases.Nowthe bullion banker is netshortgold when he conduct this operations .remember he borrowed gold and now he has a financial assets .he is making5 % return on the spread , but he now has a gold pricerisk . as a banker he is not normally business of puttingon speculativepositions.so basically,in doingthis operation butbulli on bankers has a hedged the gold priceand he takes a small margin- likea half of %- from this intermediation . in doing so , he allows privatemarket participants to go shortgold . that's why we elide the two phrases - goingshortin the gold market and gold borrowing . the ultimate borrowers in the gold leadingoperation arethese shorts in the gold future and forward markets . Now we have a conservativeset of gold leadingnumber and we have a more aggressiveset of such numbers . our range of estimates emplies that somewhere between 10000 and 16000 tonnes of the official sector gold position has leftthse results way of leadingthe process . TABLE 1 : WHY OFFICIAL SUPPLY/DEMAND EXCEEDS MAJORITY OPINION ESTIMATES AN ARGUMENT FROM THE SUPPLY SIDE
  • 8. Total Gold Loans Outstanding BOE GFMS December 1993 4,750 1,600 June 1995 9,250 2,200 Note: All Quantities in Tonnes This discrepancy was so largethattried to be conservativeand for no good reason, chopped the 9000 tonnes down to 6000 tonnes because that 6000 tonnes figures was already so far removed from the offi cial numbers . in any case, this bank survey implied big, bigerrors in the consensus supply/demand balances and half of a lotmore gold lendingthan anyone thought . Now look , gold lendingbegan in earnest in the early 1980.By 1995 it was a process thathad been going on for more than ten years . now, what if there were 6000 tonnes of gold loans - not 2000 tonnes of gold loans as implied by the consensus supply/demand statistics.that mean that there had been 4000 tonnes more lending, most of itover the lastten year period . gold lendingwas a small activity duringthe 1980 . it was a much bigger activity duringthe 1990,so obviously itwas a business thatwas occurringon an increasingscale.if the discrepancy was 4000 tonnes over 10 to 15 years , 300 to 400 tonnes a year - well , then it was probably 200 tonnes a year in the 1980 and itwas probably nearer 600 tonnes a year by 1995.That mean supply and demand were underestimated by something like600 tonnes a year . If we total these three demand items we arrive at the following:- Table 2 Metric Tonnes 1999 WGC gold demand for jewelry, bar and coin in 27 countries 3,282 GFMS gold jewelry demand in an additional 7 countries 1) 268 GFMS global demand in all other uses (excludingjewelry, bar and coin) 458
  • 9. Incomplete Global Demand Subtotal 4,008 GFMS Global gold demand 3,9852) GFMS occasionally reportand usedemand . there survey for 1998 includingthe estimate used here . there was no comparableestimate in their 1999 report . the WGC reported a largeincreasein global gold demand in 1999. Baseon wgc glbal demand for trend this number is probably conservation . GFMS total gold demand exceeds this total by 170 tonnes . they attributes demand to investigate in india . From the above itis clear thatthe WGC survey plus selectadditional itemfrom the GFMS points to a total that exceeds GFMS estimation of global gold demand . this subtotal still excludes jwelery demand in more than 100 countries.It also excludes official coin and bar demand in these 100 or more countries as well as seven additional countries mentioned above. It is basically helps to understand the total demand and supply of gold in india and they arebasically helpfull for searc wh at r the condition can not decrease the demand and supply of gold in the market. It always search and analysethe terms and conditions which help to easily find outsurvey of gold in india or many countries. ANALYSIS OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF GOLD IN INDIA The ever increaseof demand and supply of gold in india ,various hypothesis havebeen put forward from time to time:- Demand for gold has an autonomous character.Supply follows demand. Demand exhidits incomeelasticity ,particlurly in therural and semi- urban areas. Pricedifferential cretes import demand , particlurly illegal importprior to the commencement of liberalisation in 1990. A partof the demand is caused by the need to stash away uncounted wealth and income. Gold trades figures sincethe onset of liberalisation in 1990 shows thatwhilethe pri cedifferential narrowed from a high of around 53.1 % in 1991 to about 5-10 % currently the import volumes riseunabated. Gold demand in india increased by an annual compound rate of around 15 % from 1990 to 1998 during the period of liberalisation with growth slowingthereafter. This was high , not only visa- versa the world demand growth rate of 3.05 % but also in relation to the trend Indian . GDP growth rate is 5.5 % and Growth rate demand for oil is 3.8 % Energy and sugar is 6 and 5 % Gold imported officially for domestic useis now channelled almostexclusivevia theofficial agents or the authorisd commercial banks. Some aspects which helps to anlyze the gold demand and supply in india.:-
  • 10. FUTURE TRENDS :- What is likely demand trnd for the future? Given the factthat gold demand is income-elastic,itwould be safeto assumethat demand will increaseover the next decades. Since giftingjwelery at the time of marriageconstitute the major components of demand, ball-park estimated could be on the basis of the no. Of marriagethat takes placeactually. On the basis of assumption around 8 million marriager held in india per year. Gold is required for marriageby families of different income groups. GOLD MARKET IN INDIA:- The gold market in india is predominantly a marketfor buyingand sellingphysical gold.In the whole salesegment, nominated agencies are the bulk importers. This market is resonabily efficientfrom the point of view of distribution of bars and scrapsover the length of the country which takes placein a very efficient manner. Pricemanner is also generally observein areas with identifical of duties and taxes. Gold leasingvolumeare small in comparision of physical buyingand selling.Mostof leasingactivities taken by nominated banks on a back to back basis viasupply from overseas.The market needs to develop for at leat two reasons:- To provideworking capital atlowcosttogether with gold priceleading,not only to the exporter but also to jwelery manufacture for the domestic market. The existence of gold leadingmarket is pre-condition for arbitragefree pricingof gold forward in the local market. ISSUE FOR THE FUTURE :- It would only be logical to assumethat the neeed for a review of the overall policy stancewith regards to gold is now being increasingly feltin official circles.As with other areas of liberalisation ,the direction of change will certainly bepositive,although itwould be difficultto imagineany specific timeframe. However the followingissuear e liketo be the focus of policy.:- Strengthening of the infrastructures and marketin physical gold.Moreassaying,refiningand recyclingcapacities of international standard and accreditation areexpected. Better protection for consumers,by way of the spread of hallmarkingof jawelery.The emphesis will continueto be on more self regulation by jewellery manufacturingand retailers. Further liberalisation thegold import is liveissue.Removal of all the remainingrestriction on gold imports has been advocated by many of followinggroups:- Trade liberalisation for gold is a pre requisitefor financial liberalisation. There is no specific advantagein restrictinggold imports to the select no. Of nominated agencies. If gold is imported farely under full fiscal benefits will accureto more deregulation of gold in india. Going by Turkish example, free imports under OGL and free export are pre condition for establishinga foothold in the world jawelery market . REGULATION IN PHYSICAL AND FINANCIAL MARKETS IN GOLD IS ANOTHER MAJOR ISSUE:- Regulation in general means formulation of norms by the regulatory for : a. Risk assessmentand control the regulated institution. B. Investors protections. 5. BRINGING THE GOLD HELD BY THE PRIVATE SECTOR IN TO THE ECONOMIC MAINSTREAM HAS RIGHTLY BEEN AN OBJECTIVE THROUGHOUT:- Mobilization of gold by the gout. In the pastdid not yield any major longterm benefit. Any
  • 11. government led mobolization has inherentdisadvantages.A better alternativewould be allowholders of gold to raise capital fromthe bankingsystem by way of pledge. It would be inconsistentwith the spiritof liberalization to discriminate againstthosewho saved in gold in past.A machenismcan be evolved where by banks leadingin deregulation of gold in india. 6. IT DEVELOPED OF E- MAONEY :- It is possiblethata privatesector units of accountthat is linked to gold may come in to existence in india,given the fact of huge privatesector gold stocks.It would be advantages to look in to this possible. 7. GOLD HAVE ANY OFFICIAL MONETERY ROLE LEFT IN INDIA:- Gold's role in currency issuewas braughtto a level of insignificancein india.There is good evidence to support the view that gold is held as an inflation hadged in india. BRIEF DISCRIPTION ABOUT ANALYSIS OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF GOLD IN INDIA Demand for gold is likely to contain information regardinginflation expectations.Sincemonitory policy is reflected in the growth of money stock and ultimately the rate of inflation,there is a casefor includinggold in the monetory calculus.It need to analysethe advantages in includinggold held by the privatesector in the broad measure for liquidity,even though gold is not anybody's liabilities.Also gold could beincluded in the index for the real effective exchange rate for rupees. They also indicatethat:- Other thingbe equal. Gold importdemand has real effective exchange rate of the rupees. This is the analysefunction where we analysehowto demand and supply of gold commodity can run in the market and whoch factors affect to ush the demand and supply of gold in equal range. This is the chartwhich are showingconsumption n different year and we aware that the consumption of gold in india and where they affect. supply and demand table CONCLUSION In that demand and supply of gold in india we analyseand learn thatofficial sellin will "fill theboots" ot trend following speculation in the gold market and the gold pricewill fall back towards its prior tradingrange.The global recession and strong dollar which curb gold ,jewellery and bar demand have been facilitatingtheability of the official sector to keep the gold pricelow. The forces for higher gold pricewill build.Though it may not happen over the short run in the long run the dollar will fall- and substantially in our view.A dollar declinewill lower than the priceof gold in countries outside,which will in turn stimulatepriceelastic demand. The fear of weakness may also shiftofficial sector attitudes towards holdinggold as a reserve assetrelativeto the currency. Many central bank feels uncomfortablewith the now higher shareof currency in their official reserves.The huge and ever increasinginternal debtof india growingprospects of inflations.The central bank has started objective of reducing its high reserve holdingof money, and it may be noteworthy that they have reported the firstrisein central bank gold holdingin many years.As longas currency has holdingremained strong, central bank have fel t no pressingneed to address their high mony holding,but an eventual reserval in the money exchange rate may change the perception. The supply will also liftthe gold price. Over the last4 year , the supply despitelow prices becausethere was a pipeline project from the 1994-96 period of higher gold pricethe piplinehas nowbeen almostdepleted. In addition high grade to
  • 12. improve cash flowat low gold price.High gradingincreaseoutput over the near term but ultimately reduces overall lifeof mine output and brings forward in time depletion dynamics. At lastitshows that the priceof the gold is increaseor dicreases then itdoesen't affect on the demand and supply of commodity becauseit is the investment which providealways benefit to the customers, due to previous record which was explain in previous topic and cover that pricecan'taffect on demand and supply of gold in india or any country.