Uganda Bureau of Statistics has released results for the Producer Price Index for Agriculture (PPI-A)

1. Uganda Bureau of Statistics
Producer Price Index-Agriculture
October – December 2021
Press Release
March 2022
Ronald Ssombwe
Tel: 0775-226754 : Email-ronaldssombwe@ymail.com
Principal Statistician
Agriculture and Environment Statistics

2. Uganda Bureau of Statistics
Content
• Overview of the PPI-A
• PPI-A 2019-2021
• PPI-A Oct-Dec 2021

3. Introduction
Production of the PPI-A
The Producer Price Index –Agriculture is one of the indices
produced and disseminated by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics
(UBOS) under the UBOS Act No. 12, 1998.
Users
Main users of the index include; Ministry of Agriculture, Animal
Industry and Fisheries, FAO, Ministry of Finance, Planning and
Economic Development , Central Bank, Ministry of Trade, Media,
the Higher Local Governments, Non-Government Organisations,
Private sector involved with trade and agro-industrialization,
Research & Academics, among others.
UBOS Strategic goal.
Increased use of statistics for development results.

4. Background: Key Agricultural Statistics

5. Purpose of the Producer Price Index
• Produced to show the pattern and level of the
average farm-gate price received by
farmers/producers for a unit of primary
agriculture products over time with reference to
a base period.
• To measure producer price inflation which the
average change in the selling price received by
farmers over a period of one year.
• To monitor policy outcomes and decision-making
for development.

6. Definition of Producer Price / Farm-gate price
• The average basic price received by farmers in the domestic
market for a specific primary agricultural commodity available
at the farm or at a selling point near their residences (e.g.
Farmers’ market)—ISIC & OECD
• The producer price /farm-gate price and does not include
taxes, delivery and transport costs/charges.
• The producer prices are collected monthly by a team of market
monitors based in the local areas.

7. PPI-A Variable Coverage
1. Crops Production - Food & Cash crops
2. Fish Production - Catch & Aquaculture
3. Animal production-Animal, birds, products
4. Forestry & Logging

8. PPI- Agricultural Basket
International Standard Classification Group Examples
00 Growing of Cereals Maize, Millet, Sorghum
01 Growing of Leguminous crop Beans, Peas
02 Growing of oil seeds G. nuts, Soya, Sim-Sim, Palm-oil
03 Growing rice Super , Kaiso
04 Growing leafy or stem vegetables Cabbage, Gobe, Spinach, Sukuma, etc
05 Growing of fruit bearing vegetables
Tomatoes, Egg-plants, watermelon, Pumpkin, Bitter
tomatoes, Cucumber
06 Growing of bulb or tuberous vegetables Onions , Carrots
07 Growing of roots tubers Sweet Potatoes, Irish, Cassava, Yams
08 Growing sugarcane Sugar-cane for making sugar
09 Growing tobacco Tobacco leaves
10 Growing of fibre crops Cotton
11 Growing of tropical fruits and subtropical fruits Jackfruit, Pineapple, Avocado, passion
12 Banana and plantain Banana(food), Sweet bananas
13 Growing of citrus fruits Oranges, Lemons, Tangerines
14 Growing of beverage crops---Mainly Cash-crops Coffee, Tea, Cocoa, Vanilla
19 Raising of Cattle Indigenous and Exotic Cows, Bulls, Heifer, Steers
20 Production of raw milk Unprocessed Milk
21 Raising of sheep and goats Local and exotic Sheep, Goat, Ram
22 Raising of swine/pigs Boar , Sow
23 Raising of poultry Hen, Cock, Ducks, Turkey,
24 Production of eggs Local and Exotic eggs
25 Raising of other animals Rabbits
26 Bee keeping and production of honey and beeswax Honey
27 Forestry and Logging products Firewood, kalitunsi, timber, fencing & Rafter pole
28 Fresh and Aquaculture fisheries Tilapia, Nile-Perch, Silver, Catfish
A basket of 95
Commodities
produced in
the domestic
economy

9. Data sources
Details on sources
• 21 Crop Markets
• 23 Livestock Markets
• 21 sources for Cash-crop prices
• 10 sources for Fish & Aquaculture
• 15 Forestry product providers
• Data collection is conducted
monthly by market monitors using
paper questionnaires.
44 Markets

10. Data sources Location
Central Eastern Northern Western
Masaka Soroti Lira Rukungiri
Rakai Bukedea Alebtong Isingiro
Lyantonde Palissa Apac Sheema
Lwengo Tororo Dokolo Kabale/Rubanda
Nakaseke Iganga Agago Kiruhura/Kazo
Kaberamaido Gulu Ntungamo
Kumi Zombo & Nebbi

11. Methodology
 Base Period is 2016/17
 Agricultural commodity Divisions(ISIC Rev 4) and Weights(SUT)
 Formula: modified Lasperyers Index approach-fixed weights in base period
 Price-per-kg is the standard data used for most of the basket items with quarterly
revisions.
Division Weight
Crop Production 727.89
Animal Production 154.11
Fish & Aquaculture production 80.72
Forestry and Logging 37.27

12. Trend of Farm-gate Prices 2020 -2021
• A Mar-June 2020 decline –
Covid-19 lockdown,
reduced demand for items
caused by limited access to
the rural areas by buyers.
Most prices of items
reduced considerably as
farmers competed for
buyers.
• Since June 2020, famer
prices has had an upward
trend to Dec 2021

13. Pattern of PPI-A Inflation 2019 -2021

14. PPI-A Inflation 2018-2021
• It is normal that the
Inflation is positive and
negative due to the cob-
web structure of
agricultural prices.
• However, when a country
experiences
stress/bottlenecks in
agricultural production and
supply , inflation outcome
may reflect differently.
-4.3
6.9
-2.5
5.7
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
2018 2019 2020 2021
Percent

15. PPI-A Inflation 2019 – 2021 by Division
• The overall change in
average prices for the
Agricultural basket
increased by 5.7 % in
2021.
• In 2020, due to the
Covid-19 lock-down
farmers prices for the
agricultural items
basket declined by 2.5%

16. PPI-A Annual Inflation Dec-2020- Dec 2021

17. Annual Price Inflation Oct – Dec 2021
by Division

18. PPI-A Annual Inflation Dec 2020 – Dec 2021
by Division

19. Quarter-on- Quarter Changes in 2021 Q 3 & Q 4
• Comparison between Q3 (July-Sept )
and Q4 ( Oct – Dec) 2021.
• The prices for agriculture
commodities are determined by
supply/demand pressures of during
the festive season.
• Overall there was high demand for
crops and animals as expected. So
crop prices increased by 3.3% while
animal prices increased by 0.5%.
• However, between Q3 &Q4, the
PPI-A declined by 0.2% mainly
caused by reduced prices of fish.

20. Quarterly Changes in 2021 Q 3 & Q 4-Table 3
July-Sept Oct-Dec
4.0 3.3
01 Growing of cereals (Except rice) 14.1 16.3
02 Growing of Legumious crop -4.7 -13.6
03 Growing of oil seeds -2.1 8.4
04 Growing rice -7.1 -9.7
05 Growing leafy or stem vegetables 43.0 -9.1
06 Growing of fruit bearing vegetables 0.0 -9.8
07 Growing of root, bulb or tuberous vegetables -5.7 26.1
08 Growing of root tubers 2.6 2.6
09 Growing sugarcane -5.7 0.0
10 Growing tobacco 28.2 59.6
11 Growing of fibre crops 8.7 188.3
12 Growing of tropical fruits and subtropical fruits 11.9 12.8
13 Banana and plantain 3.0 17.8
14 Growing of citrus fruits -36.8 -13.4
15 Growing of beverage crops 4.9 -5.7
16 Growing of Spices, Aromatic crops/Vanilla 0.5 -0.3
2021
Division/Group
Crop Production

21. Quarterly Changes in 2021 Q 3 & Q 4-Table 3
July-Sept Oct-Dec
13.4 0.5
1 Raising of cattle 9.6 2.9
2 Production of of raw milk 7.7 10.1
3 Raising of sheep and goats 15.5 -3.9
4 Raising of swine/pigs 10.8 1.9
5 Raising of poultry 17.9 5.9
6 Production of eggs 14.2 0.2
7 Raising of other animals (Honey pdn & Rabbits) 1.8 19.9
3.8 -4.3
1 Logging 3.8 -4.3
-14.2 -34.9
1 Fresh water Fisheries -14.8 -35.4
2 Fresh water Aquaculture Fisheries 17.2 -18.4
3.9 -0.2
2021
Division/Group
Forestry and Logging products
Fresh and Aquaculture Fisheries
Animal Production
PPI-A

22. Month-on-Month Inflation Oct - Dec 2021
by Division

23. Month-on-Month Inflation Oct - Dec 2021 by Division
Table 2
Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21
0.6 0.4 1.7
1.3 0.8 1.6
01 Growing of cereals 7.3 8.9 0.4
02 Growing of Legumious crop -10.4 -3.4 -0.6
03 Growing of oil seeds 12.7 -1.4 -3.9
04 Growing rice -9.8 1.9 6.0
05 Growing leafy or stem vegetables 2.6 -9.9 -3.5
06 Growing of fruit bearing vegetables -6.5 2.1 10.8
07 Growing of root or tuberous vegetables 13.4 -7.6 13.5
08 Growing of roots tubers 3.7 -0.6 -2.2
09 Growing sugarcane 0.0 0.0 0.0
10 Growing tobacco 50.0 -20.0 7.4
11 Growing of fibre crops 178.2 0.0 2.6
12 Growing of tropical fruits and subtropical fruits 0.9 5.0 -3.1
13 Banana and plantain -4.6 5.7 3.6
14 Growing of citrus fruits -14.9 4.1 26.6
15 Growing of beverage crops -8.2 -2.7 13.2
-1.7 -0.9 1.9
16 Raising of Cattle -3.9 -2.4 4.7
17 Production of raw milk -4.3 -3.5 9.6
18 Raising of sheep and goats -3.1 -0.2 -5.9
19 Raising of swine/pigs -2.4 -1.2 5.1
20 Raising of poultry 4.9 1.7 2.5
21 Production of eggs 9.3 -1.4 -1.9
22 Raising of other animals (honey & rabbits) 19.1 2.7 -1.0
23 Bee keeping and production of honey and beeswax 21.1 1.4 -3.7
-9.5 1.9 7.2
24 Logging -9.5 1.9 7.2
-30.3 -4.7 14.8
25 Fresh water Fishing -30.1 -5.8 15.8
26 Fresh water Aquaculture -35.3 29.1 -8.2
-2.0 0.2 2.5
Division/Group
Forestry and Logging products
Fresh and Aquaculture fisheries
PPI-A
Animal Production
Crop Production
Crop and Animal Production

24. I Thank you

25. Crop, Animal, Fish Prices in 2021 Q4
Turning points for farm-gate prices
• Mar-June 2020 decline – low
demand for animals and crop due to
covid-19 lock down
• Jan-March 2021 rise in crop prices
was due to scarcity and planting
season.
• Jan-March 2021 decline in animal
prices was due reduced demand
after the December festive season.
• Controls on fishing, cost of
requirements, local & International
demand are pushing up fish prices.
Cereals; Maize, Millet,
Sorghum increased by 16.3%
Oil seeds; G.nuts, Sunflower,
Sim-sim increased by 8.4%
Root-Tubers; Potatoes,
cassava increased by 2.6%

26. Background
 Agriculture is a source of livelihood to majority of Households in Uganda and an effective
mechanism for growth of other sectors(NDP)
 About 80% of households are engaged in agriculture-Census 2014.
 About 47% of Households in urban and 92% in the rural are engaged Agriculture- Census
 56% of Households are in pure subsistence farming(unhs)
 64.3%(2016/17) to 68.1%(2019/20) of the working population are working in Agriculture (UNHS)
 39%(2016/17) to 47%(2019/20) of the working population are in subsistence Agriculture (UNHS)
 Accounts for 36% of employment(paid work) in Uganda.
 Households with enterprises based in Agriculture increased 6.5% (2016/17) to 7.5% (2019/20)
 Due to covid-19, working persons in subsistence Agriculture increased 41% - 52% (UNHS)
 Agriculture sector contributed 24.0% to overall GDP at current prices in 2019/20
 The sector recorded a growth rate of 4.8% in 2019/20
Commercialization of Agriculture continues to linked farms to the market economy.