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Network Planning Workshop - Powering Sydney
- 1. Network Planning Workshop 16 September
- 2. Workshop Summary The workshop held on 16 September 2014 brought together a range of organisations and experts to explore network planning as a possible initiative to form part of the solution for the Powering Sydney’s Future Project. Approximately 50 representatives and experts gathered to hear about the TransGrid network planning process and how it has been applied to the Powering Sydney’s Future project to develop and assess possible network infrastructure solutions. Workshop participants included representatives from consumer advocacy groups, academics, government representatives, regulators, large energy users, solution providers and other electricity networks. Participants were involved in interactive sessions to provide feedback on the topics discussed.
- 3. Agenda - Introduction - TransGrid’s network planning process - Options review process - Breakout discussions - Wrap up
- 4. Introduction Stephen Clark, Executive General Manager Network Planning & Performance
- 5. TransGrid’s role in electricity supply
- 7. Powering Sydney’s Future Project Maximise utilisation of assets Deferral of capital expenditure Just in time delivery Keeping options open Joint planning with Ausgrid Keeping customers and consumers informed
- 8. Five key initiatives Supply Demand Population growth
- 9. Network planning process Gordon Burbidge, Consultations Manager
- 10. Joint planning process Ausgrid TransGrid Project implementation Project implementation Joint Planning Committee Least community cost solution
- 11. The “Planning Cycle” Review of need drivers to inform decisions Typically when updated forecast become available Less frequently other factors such as changes to Generation Capability and performance of the existing network
- 12. Planning “stages” We are here
- 13. demand range A range of futures 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 MW existing
- 14. Option Evaluation Regulatory consultation: Three part process (two opportunities for inputs) Seeking all credible options to maximise net market benefit Selecting the “best” option
- 15. Questions
- 16. Network Planning for the Inner Sydney area Bruce Howard, Connections Planning Manager
- 17. demand range 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 MW existing The situation
- 18. Joint planning process Strategy development Options review Load sensitivity analysis TransGrid Ausgrid Joint planning strategy
- 19. Supply to inner Sydney
- 20. Supply to inner Sydney >40 supply options Sydney West BSP (Rookwood Rd) most suitable Further investigation to optimise options
- 21. Route cost comparison Route options Rookwood (R) Sydney South (S) Sydney East (E) Sydney North (N)
- 22. Joint planning process Strategy development Options review Load sensitivity analysis TransGrid Options feasibility (330kv) Route selection (330kv) Ausgrid Retirement strategy 132kv Replacement Joint planning strategy
- 23. Joint planning outcomes Credible network strategies developed for supply to inner Sydney a full 330 kV solution (Strategy ‘A’) a mix of 330 kV and 132 kV solutions (strategies ‘B’ & ‘C’) a full 132 kV solution (Strategy ‘D’) Strategies have 20-30 yr outlook Strategies tested against different demand scenarios to understand cost-effectiveness of each
- 25. Strategies
- 26. Strategy evaluation Strategy NPV ($m) NPV Low growth ($m) Cable routes (km) Comments A (Full 330kV) 432 294 34 (34) Minimal cable routes Highest capability B (Hybrid 1) 417 266 42 (34) Lowest cost C (Hybrid 2) 463 266 52 (34) Higher cost Community disruption D (Full 132kV) 466 286 79 (60) Highest cost Community disruption Lower capability
- 28. Questions
- 30. Single large cable Multiple replacements
- 33. Activity 1 – Evaluation Facilitator 1 : What key advantages do you see about the infrastructure option Facilitator 2 : What concerns you most about the infrastructure option Facilitator 3 : Factors that TransGrid should consider in evaluating an infrastructure option
- 34. Activity 2 – Priorities First (Red) Second (Yellow) Third (Green)
- 35. Wrap up and closing
- 36. Next steps
- 37. Thank you Stay informed and involved through the project web page www.yoursaytransgrid .com.au/psf
Editor's Notes
- TransGrid’s overall network and focus on the significance of the inner Sydney network
- Sydney is an area of critical economic importance. The map is an excerpt from a PWC report on the location of economic activity in Australia. Sydney CBD generated $64 b of Gross Product in 2012/13 and just 1 square metre of land in Sydney’s CBD generates $15k of economic output. - The seven LGAs that are in the inner Sydney area for the Powering Sydney’s Future project consist of approximately 650k residents and generate aprox 770k jobs and $125b of economic activity or 27.4% of NSW’s Gross State Product. The provision of a reliable supply to Inner Sydney is perhaps TransGrid and Ausgrid’s most critical responsibility. Any interruption will affect: Gas. Water, Telecommunications, Road and Traffic control and Fuel Supply Hospitals, the ASX, Sydney Airport, Port Botany, major road tunnels, Sydney railways -Any interruption to the supply to this heavily populated area will result in enormous inconvenience and any prolonged interruption in just not acceptable.
- Parts of the existing network supplying the inner Sydney area are approaching the end of their service life and we need to start planning now for the future. Much of the infrastructure was built in the 50s and 60s when the network was established Planning inner Sydney’s future electricity network provides an opportunity to consider a range of initiatives. Project concurrently investigating multiple initiatives to develop a progressive and cost-effective solution.
- Explain why we are looking at these different initiatives. Explain benefits of deferring large investments. Touch on each initiative and explain that no specific decision on a solution has been made. Builder of last resort: ongoing testing/review of underlying assumptions and solutions allows more responsiveness to changing environment.
- Network planning is really only applied common sense. 1. Identify a need (generally an expected inability to meet NSW reliability obligations) 2. Develop and evaluate options 3. Select the best option Then move to “Implementation” Underpinned by “prudent” practices. Use the most up to date information when making decisions Don’t make a commitment until necessary (keep your options open) Review things as circumstances change (typically forecasts, but can be other things such as generation retirements and/or new generation) Consider uncertainty (consider different possible futures) Balance of the presentation touches on these aspects
- Well established and longstanding process Decisions not affected by “artificial” boundaries Helps understand holistic aspects/impacts The representatives from both Ausgrid and TransGrid work as a Joint Planning Committee to identify requirements and develop options for ensuring a reliable supply to the Ausgrid supply area – especially the Inner Sydney area. The JPC looks for solutions with the Least Community Cost in terms of cost, environmental impact and inconvenience to the community during construction. Decisions are not influenced by considerations of which organisation will be responsible for implementing the recommendations.
- Triggers of reviews can be changes anywhere in the electricity supply chain (generation – network – loads). Reviews typically occur when updated forecasts become available (the “load” end of the supply chain). Typically forecasts are updated annually, leading to an annual planning cycle. Reviews can also be prompted by other things such as changes to network capability or generation (the other two supply chain components). “As required” basis.
- The four steps, although the titles are slightly different. We are presently at the second stage (option identification). In addition of the above planning process, annual planning cycles and revised forecast data is analysed to review the need of each project.
- “Existing” should be “network capability”. The objective is not to “get the forecast right”. Rather it is to test how robust the “ranking” of the options being considered is to changes in “needs date”. Upper is Ausgrid forecast (need in the near term) Lower is “no nett growth” (need in the longer term). The assumption was that factors which decrease demand on the network (energy efficiency, PV generation) are balanced by factors which increase demand (primarily population growth).
- Before handing over to Bruce, I would like to touch on the next stage of the process, Option Selection. This includes a regulatory consultation process which includes applying the AER’s RIT-T. It is a public process to demonstrate: There is a need to do something A reasonable range of options have been considered The “best” option has been selected The RIT-T is an economic (cost/benefit) analysis. The preferred option under the RIT-T is the credible option that maximises the net market benefit taking into account the direct cost of the option and the market benefits arising from that option. Effectively “least community cost”.
- A high level desktop assessment was completed in 2012 to assess feasible options for a third 330kV electricity supply into the Sydney Metropolitan CBD originating from each of the four Bulk Supply Points (BSP’s) surrounding the greater Sydney Metropolitan area.
- The assessment considered, but was not limited to, the cost, timing of activities, environmental and social issues, key risks and the practicality of being able to carry out the works. Over fourty potential supply options (including a range of overhead, overhead/trench, trench, overhead/trench/tunnel, tunnel and trench/tunnel combinations) into the Sydney Metropolitan CBD from the four BSPs were identified. These potential supply options were then individually assessed and if not considered feasible were rejected. All remaining 25 feasible supply options were then put through a Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) to evaluate and compare the range of viable supply options from each BSP. The assessment identified that the third point of supply for the Sydney Metropolitan CBD area should be sourced from the Sydney West (Rookwood Rd) BSP to the as all of the supply options out this BSP have either the highest Relative Benefit Index score or are the least cost. Only the full tunnel supply options from the North and East BSP’s share this ranking but are at significantly higher cost. Further investigations were therefore focused on the next level of detail to determine the optimum route and construction mode combinations out of Sydney West (Rookwood Rd) BSP.
- The assessment considered, but was not limited to, the cost, timing of activities, environmental and social issues, key risks and the practicality of being able to carry out the works. Over fourty potential supply options (including a range of overhead, overhead/trench, trench, overhead/trench/tunnel, tunnel and trench/tunnel combinations) into the Sydney Metropolitan CBD from the four BSPs were identified. These potential supply options were then individually assessed and if not considered feasible were rejected. All remaining 25 feasible supply options were then put through a Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) to evaluate and compare the range of viable supply options from each BSP. The assessment identified that the third point of supply for the Sydney Metropolitan CBD area should be sourced from the Sydney West (Rookwood Rd) BSP to the as all of the supply options out this BSP have either the highest Relative Benefit Index score or are the least cost. Only the full tunnel supply options from the North and East BSP’s share this ranking but are at significantly higher cost. Further investigations were therefore focused on the next level of detail to determine the optimum route and construction mode combinations out of Sydney West (Rookwood Rd) BSP.
- Strategies developed through joint planning with Ausgrid over the past 5-7 years. All strategies have been developed to provide adequate supply to the study area. Many different options considered within each strategy and these continue to evolve and be optimised as new relevant data becomes available.
- A Route Selection Report was prepared to investigate route and mode options (ie. provision of a transmission network connection using trenched, tunnel or overhead infrastructure) for a potential future transmission supply between the Sydney West (Rookwood Rd) Substation and the Beaconsfield West Substation (in the inner Sydney area). An initial screening was conducted to identify a preliminary list of potential route options. The initial screening applied a series of guiding principles consistent with those in the earlier options feasibility study and was also supported by a series of constraints maps developed from publicly-available information. Based on the initial screening the following options were identified for further evaluation: - fourteen trenched route options; - ten hybrid route options (involving a combination of any or all of trenched, tunnel or overhead modes); These options were comparatively evaluated and narrowed down to a short-list of options using a risk analysis approach that considered: - engineering implications; - cost implications; - environmental and land use implications; potential community and stakeholder response; and program implications. TransGrid has not yet made a financial commitment to developing a new transmission supply between the Sydney West (Rookwood Rd) Substation and the Beaconsfield West Substation and is currently also investigating several alternative non-network initiatives (e.g. demand response) that could defer or avoid the need to build a new underground cable. It is anticipated that the planning for a new transmission supply between the Sydney West (Rookwood Rd) Substation and the Beaconsfield West Substation will continue to progress to ensure a network solution can be delivered in time if needed. The preferred route will undergo detailed design and be refined through consultation with the community, local government and other interested parties.
- Provide info about other strategies and approximate number of options considered within each. Can use some of the previous graphs from introductory forum (see slides below) Provide context on long-term strategy objectives associated with 330KV supply from Rookwood to Beaconsfield (applicable to all strategies) TransGrid will continue to monitor drivers on electricity demand in the region, and continue to adjust demand forecasts and network planning decisions accordingly. Non-network support Importantly, for each network strategy, the procurement of economic network support could be used as a non-network alternative to defer the need for network investment (e.g. demand response and demand management initiatives). These non-network support initiatives will be the focus of separate workshops and will not be delved further in today’s workshop.
- NPV costs are for the ultimate development to 2030’s 10% discount rate has been assumed (under lower discount rate, 330kV options fare even more favourably) The first 3 strategies all share the same initial development (ie. 330kV cable from Rookwood to Beaconsfield) Each 330kV easement gives approximately 2 x 680 = 1360MW capability. Each 132kV easement gives approximately 2 x 225 = 250MW capability. Easement lengths would be reduced under low growth scenario (figures in parenthesis)
- -Early engagement: already commenced (local councils, this forum, other key stakeholders); reaching out to community next -Options Review: ongoing investigations on all initiatives, with a RIT-T process commencing this year. - The next stages are dependent on revised forecast data that is expected in the next two months -Network Support Market Development: to develop market interest; RFPs -Environmental Assessment for cable option: critical to ensure a new cable (network infrastructure) remains an option. Will involve finalising cable route and submitting Preliminary Environmental Assessment (timing- after RIT-T has commenced this year) NO INVESTMENT DECISION MADE
- Many thanks for your feedback today. Webpage will be regularly updated. Today’s presentations will be available on the website in the next few days. Welcome feedback and will tailor engagement approach to address specific needs.