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Probability
Data	
  Breach	
  Cost
The	
  Long	
  Long	
  Cyber	
  Risk	
  Tail
Or
Why	
  focusing	
  only on	
  security	
  
controls	
  misses	
  half	
  the	
  picture!
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
Likelihood	
  of	
  Breach	
  Cost
Breach	
  Cost
Millions
Distribution for the possible cost of a data breach that exposed personal and
financial data for 300,000 peopleand that was caused by a malicious outsider.
This distribution is a prediction from a linear regression model trained upon a large number of data
breaches, covering a large range of industries, incident types, data types and people affected. While the cost
of most breaches is less than $10 Million dollars, a significant portion are much larger – the long long tail.
80%	
  Confidence	
  (80%	
  of	
  
data	
  breaches	
  will	
  cost	
  less)
90%	
  Confidence	
  (90%	
  of	
  
data	
  breaches	
  will	
  cost	
  less)
10%	
  of	
  breaches	
  fall	
  here
– within	
  the	
  long	
  long	
  tail.
What	
  is	
  the	
  Long	
  Long Cyber	
  Risk	
  Tail?
Investigation
Notification
Call	
  center
Remediation
o Business	
  Loss
o Damage	
  to	
  personal	
  credit
o Theft	
  of	
  money	
  &	
  goods
o Credit	
  card	
  replacement	
  costs
Business	
  loss;	
  theft	
  of	
  
money	
  &	
  goods
Credit	
  monitoring	
  &	
  
privacy	
  insurance.
Fines	
  &	
  settlements
Public	
  &	
  Other	
  BusinessesBreach	
  Company
Mitigate
Transfer	
  
via	
  suits
Breakdown	
  of	
  Data	
  Breach	
  Cost
Total	
  Cost
The	
  cost	
  of	
  a	
  security	
  firm	
  to	
  investigate	
  and	
  
report	
  on	
  the	
  activities	
  of	
  a	
  malicious	
  intruder.	
  
Legal	
  response	
  to	
  the	
  many	
  many	
  government	
  
agencies	
  that	
  require	
  notification.
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
Likelihood	
  of	
  Breach	
  Cost
Breach	
  Cost
Millions
Variable	
  Costs	
  that	
  
Dominate	
  the	
  Tail
Investigation
Notification
Call	
  center
Remediation
Business	
  loss;	
  theft	
  of	
  
money	
  &	
  goods
Credit	
  monitoring	
  &	
  
privacy	
  insurance.
Fines	
  &	
  settlements
Breach	
  Company
Investigation
Notification
Call	
  center
Remediation
o Business	
  Loss
o Damage	
  to	
  personal	
  credit
o Theft	
  of	
  money	
  &	
  goods
o Credit	
  card	
  replacement	
  costs
Business	
  loss;	
  theft	
  of	
  
money	
  &	
  goods
Credit	
  monitoring	
  &	
  
privacy	
  insurance.
Fines	
  &	
  settlements
Public	
  &	
  Other	
  BusinessesBreach	
  Company
Mitigate
Transfer	
  
via	
  suits
Make	
  sure	
  you	
  are	
  capturing	
  information	
  
that	
  can	
  speed	
  the	
  investigation.	
  Engaging	
  
a	
  security	
  firm	
  early	
  can	
  save	
  millions.
Engage	
  a	
  law	
  firm	
  early,	
  negotiate	
  costs	
  and	
  
be	
  prepared.
Reduce probability of a lawsuit by
engaging a law firm to review
contracts and advertising promises.
How	
  to	
  Control	
  Variable	
  Costs	
  that	
  Dominate	
  the	
  Tail
Actions	
  to	
  Reduce	
  Your	
  Tail
ü Engage	
  a	
  law	
  firm;	
  negotiate	
  notification	
  costs
ü Strengthen	
  contracts	
  with	
  partners;	
  be	
  careful	
  with	
  advertised	
  promises.
ü Engage	
  a	
  security	
  company,	
  instrument	
  your	
  enterprise,	
  negotiate	
  
investigation	
  costs
VivoSecurity	
  Inc.	
  Contact:	
  ThomasL@VivoSecurity.com
ü Use a Cyber Loss Model to clarify potential loss;
consider Insurance.

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Half the Picture

  • 1. Probability Data  Breach  Cost The  Long  Long  Cyber  Risk  Tail Or Why  focusing  only on  security   controls  misses  half  the  picture!
  • 2. $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 Likelihood  of  Breach  Cost Breach  Cost Millions Distribution for the possible cost of a data breach that exposed personal and financial data for 300,000 peopleand that was caused by a malicious outsider. This distribution is a prediction from a linear regression model trained upon a large number of data breaches, covering a large range of industries, incident types, data types and people affected. While the cost of most breaches is less than $10 Million dollars, a significant portion are much larger – the long long tail. 80%  Confidence  (80%  of   data  breaches  will  cost  less) 90%  Confidence  (90%  of   data  breaches  will  cost  less) 10%  of  breaches  fall  here – within  the  long  long  tail. What  is  the  Long  Long Cyber  Risk  Tail?
  • 3. Investigation Notification Call  center Remediation o Business  Loss o Damage  to  personal  credit o Theft  of  money  &  goods o Credit  card  replacement  costs Business  loss;  theft  of   money  &  goods Credit  monitoring  &   privacy  insurance. Fines  &  settlements Public  &  Other  BusinessesBreach  Company Mitigate Transfer   via  suits Breakdown  of  Data  Breach  Cost Total  Cost The  cost  of  a  security  firm  to  investigate  and   report  on  the  activities  of  a  malicious  intruder.   Legal  response  to  the  many  many  government   agencies  that  require  notification.
  • 4. $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 Likelihood  of  Breach  Cost Breach  Cost Millions Variable  Costs  that   Dominate  the  Tail Investigation Notification Call  center Remediation Business  loss;  theft  of   money  &  goods Credit  monitoring  &   privacy  insurance. Fines  &  settlements Breach  Company
  • 5. Investigation Notification Call  center Remediation o Business  Loss o Damage  to  personal  credit o Theft  of  money  &  goods o Credit  card  replacement  costs Business  loss;  theft  of   money  &  goods Credit  monitoring  &   privacy  insurance. Fines  &  settlements Public  &  Other  BusinessesBreach  Company Mitigate Transfer   via  suits Make  sure  you  are  capturing  information   that  can  speed  the  investigation.  Engaging   a  security  firm  early  can  save  millions. Engage  a  law  firm  early,  negotiate  costs  and   be  prepared. Reduce probability of a lawsuit by engaging a law firm to review contracts and advertising promises. How  to  Control  Variable  Costs  that  Dominate  the  Tail
  • 6. Actions  to  Reduce  Your  Tail ü Engage  a  law  firm;  negotiate  notification  costs ü Strengthen  contracts  with  partners;  be  careful  with  advertised  promises. ü Engage  a  security  company,  instrument  your  enterprise,  negotiate   investigation  costs VivoSecurity  Inc.  Contact:  ThomasL@VivoSecurity.com ü Use a Cyber Loss Model to clarify potential loss; consider Insurance.