How might manufacturing reorganise due to new technologies and the effects on employment, workplaces and their locations.

1. Chris McMahon
chris.mcmahon@bris.ac.uk, 20 November 2014
Prepare for Change -The Future of Work: Manufacturing

2. Three scenarios for Bristol in 2034
Subject: How might manufacturing reorganise due to new technologies and the effects on employment, workplaces and their locations.
Approach: to present three scenarios for the way manufacturing might develop in Bristol over the next 20 years, told by someone looking back and reflecting in the year 2035.

3. Scenario 1 –Business As Usual?
The reduction in the oil price in 2014 was short-lived, and from the middle of 2015 the price of oil moved past $100/barrel as world growth recovered.
The oil price, together with Obama’s agreement with Xi Jinpingto restrict carbon emissions, led to great pressures to achieve improvements in air and road transport efficiencies to which Bristol’s industries were well-placed to respond, thanks to new manufacturing technologies and systems.
New computer-based manufacturing systems allowed manufacturing to flourish in other respects, and again Bristol’s industries were well placed to respond.

4. Excerpt from Metal Additive Manufacturing, produced by University of Sheffield, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYs- Av_HbWs

5. http://www.metal-am.com/articles/002733.html
http://d2n4wb9orp1vta.cloudfront.net/resources/images/cdn/cms/am1208_geaviation_1.jpg
New metal additive manufacturing technologies revolutionised aerospace and other manufacture and together with composite materials allowed the next generation of ultra-light weight aircraft to be developed
Wikipedia

6. The growing demand from China and India meant that Europe’s aircraft industry was busier than ever before
http://www.airbus.com/fileadmin/media_gallery/photogallery/big/800x600_1341561286_Concept_Plane_Hong_Kong.jpg

7. The new technologies also prompted development of small
enterprises through ‘maker’ centres
http://kwmc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/IMAG0155-1006x250.jpg
http://3d.alexgibson.net/

8. Expertise in composites and in electric motor technologies led to a spin-out from Bristol University developing an ultra-low energy consumption electric vehicle

9. While advanced composites and a streamlined body were also incorporated in a radical design from Bristol's caravan makers
http://cdn.csuk-solutions.net/uploads/73/5628446-knaus-tabberts-concept-van-stars-in-dusseldorf-1.jpg

10. Robots were ever more widely used, in manufacturing, but also in maintenance, in healthcare and increasingly in the home
http://www.bristol.ac.uk/media-library/sites/news/2014/may/easyjetdrone-article.jpg
http://s3files.core77.com/blog/spycye_small1.jpg
http://i.ytimg.com/vi/n-rBITMCGqM/0.jpg
http://www.brl.ac.uk/images/assisted%20living%20banner.jpg

11. Scenario 2 –Decline or Collapse?
The reduction in the oil price in 2014 led to failure of a number of shale oil companies which combined with unwinding of record speculative bets on oil prices exacerbated debt-related problems in the financial sector and wider economy.
This further contributed to poor growth in East Asia, accompanied by deflation, which led to growing unemployment and civil unrest in China, Korea and Japan.
The unrest had knock-on effects in Europe both in reduced exports of manufactured goods and disruption to supply chains of key economic goods.
The faltering recovery in Europe was halted, destroying plans for investment in high-tech industries

12. Scenario 2 –Decline or Collapse
Low oil prices in 2014 led to the failure of many US ‘tight oil’ companies, and tension with Russia and renewed conflict in the Middle East led in the late teens to an oil and gas supply crisis.
Oil was rationed in European countries, leading to a crisis in the car industry. Worries about road transport led to regular panic buying. The collapse of many airlines led to a large reduction in new aircraft orders.
Cracks in ageing British nuclear reactors caused them to be shut down, leading to regular winter power cuts rendering ‘smart’ technologies inoperable.
Business failures led to further economic turmoil and a second great depression.

13. Panic buying, deserted streets
http://gb.fotolibra.com/images/previews/604436-park-street-bristol.jpeg
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-oPzh3b1uKjg/T3RdSG8SBPI/AAAAAAAACpg/O3JZqKJcg2M/s1600/1049602.jpg

14. Panic buying
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2010/12/05/article-1335812-0C51DA1D000005DC-22_964x550.jpg

15. Airline failures led to a collapse in new-build sales; sales of capital equipment also declined precipitously
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-sbAxY8Je_cM/TXVDqrtIV7I/AAAAAAAAACo/xZ2mOVrR0pE/s1600/airbus.jpg

16. Nuclear power in crisis
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2011/06/20/article-2005977-0CA4C4F600000578-245_468x371.jpg
http://www.imeche.org/images/default-source/pe-news-width-454/8118_36cf0db149002263df88f337bf7d596a_454x250.jpg

17. Interruptions in energy supply made technologies dependent on networked devices useless
http://www.rinnovabili.it/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/3Bristol.jpg
http://www.architecturecentre.co.uk/assets/images/exhibition_image_pairs/smartcity%20full.jpg

18. Scenario 3 –Managed Transition
The severe flooding in the winter of 2016-17 led to a belated call for action on climate. That and the mini-oil crisis of 2019 led to public demands for a swift transition away from a fossil fuel based economy.
The changes manifested themselves in four ways:
•A rapid move away from oil-based transport except for essential services –rail, bus, agriculture and some truck
•Re-purposing of industries
•Emphasis on product-service-systems
•Emphasis on the circular economy, salvage, use of waste
Although painful in the short term, employment increased and the population found itself leaner and fitter

19. The aerospace industry used its ‘lightweight structures’ skills on an ultra-lightweight electric bus
http://ecofriend.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/autotram_inztl.jpg

20. Many cities adopted personal rapid transit systems, based on Bristol’s Ultra PRT . . .

21. Low energy building materials based on Bath University research led to a new industry
Source: Euro-cell project website

22. Servitisation
Product-service systems-combinations of products and services, with the emphasis on “sale of use” rather than “sale of product”

23. Neighbor doorknob hanger. Photo Credit: Candy Chang.
Car sharing -Zipcarsin Bristol
Servitisation; sharing economy

24. The circular economy
http://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/

25. Circular economy: reclamation, recycling

26. Wind turbines from scrap
http://cdn.instructables.com/FT1/49A1/GR6ZJMCJ/FT149A1GR6ZJMCJ.LARGE.jpg
https://www.engineeringforchange.org/news/images/May-2011/turbine-1.jpg

27. Discussion
Which of these scenarios do you think is closest to the truth?
What are the implications for us personally and for those planning for our communities?
Before we discuss this I would like to introduce two concepts – that of ‘dominant designs’ and Kuhn’s notion of normal and revolutionary science applied to engineering

28. Dominant Designs

29. Dominant Designs
Dominant designs allow engineering effort and investment to be concentrated to achieve economies of scale and incremental improvements in performance.
This happens at multiple scales that include physical, social and informational elements.
The consequence:
“Industrial economies have been locked into fossil fuel-based energy systems through a process of technological and institutional co-evolution driven by path-dependent increasing returns to scale . . this condition . . creates persistent market and policy failures that can inhibit the diffusion of carbon-saving technologies” Unruh, 2000

30. Normal and revolutionary engineering
Thomas Kuhn suggested that most science is done within the framework of established scientific paradigms
From time to time these paradigms fail to explain anomalies, and that leads to scientific revolution
We can consider that there is a similar process in engineering – most engineers work to improve and develop existing paradigms, but from time to time they are shown to be anomalous and have to be replaced through technical revolutions
Our current technologies are clearly anomalous for a number of reasons. Engineering (and societal) revolution is needed now.

31. Questions and discussion?
Chris McMahon
chris.mcmahon@bris.ac.uk, 20 November 2014