Analysis and Effect of Waste and Population Growth on Waste-Based Electric Energy Generation Potential and Energy Demand in Bantargebang TPST Environment Over time, the amount of population growth is directly proportional to the amount of waste generated in DKI Jakarta every day. The increasing number of existing residents is also directly proportional to the amount of energy demand in the following days. With the increasing amount of waste collected at the Bantargebang TPST, it will make it increasingly hilly without an effective solution. This study aims to analyze the possibility of using waste as a new renewable energy source to produce electricity if a Waste Power Plant (PLTSa) is built using the thermal gasification method. This study also aims to analyze the effect of electrical energy generated from waste on energy demand projections in the following years. This study uses the LEAP software to simulate PLTSa development with some data used by the latest conditions in 2022. This research concludes that the generated electrical energy does not significantly affect energy demand in the coming year where the potential for electrical energy generated from waste in DKI Jakarta in 2022 has the potential to generate 10.274.157,2 MWh or 37.090.820,2 GJ of electrical energy with a generation capacity of 1.563,79 MW.

1. Analysis and Effect of Garbage and Population
Growth on Waste-Based Electric Energy Generation
Potential and Energy Demand in DKI Jakarta
Muhammad Rifqi Fadhilah
Electrical Engineering Department
Universitas Trisakti
Jakarta, Indonesia
rfqalts@gmail.com
Syamsir Abduh
Electrical Engineering Department
Universitas Trisakti
Jakarta, Indonesia
syamsir_abduh@trisakti.ac.id
Abstract— Analysis and Effect of Waste and Population Growth
on Waste-Based Electric Energy Generation Potential and Energy
Demand in Bantargebang TPST Environment Over time, the
amount of population growth is directly proportional to the
amount of waste generated in DKI Jakarta every day. The
increasing number of existing residents is also directly
proportional to the amount of energy demand in the following
days. With the increasing amount of waste collected at the
Bantargebang TPST, it will make it increasingly hilly without an
effective solution. This study aims to analyze the possibility of
using waste as a new renewable energy source to produce
electricity if a Waste Power Plant (PLTSa) is built using the
thermal gasification method. This study also aims to analyze the
effect of electrical energy generated from waste on energy
demand projections in the following years. This study uses the
LEAP software to simulate PLTSa development with some data
used by the latest conditions in 2022. This research concludes that
the generated electrical energy does not significantly affect energy
demand in the coming year where the potential for electrical
energy generated from waste in DKI Jakarta in 2022 has the
potential to generate 10.274.157,2 MWh or 37.090.820,2 GJ of
electrical energy with a generation capacity of 1.563,79 MW.
Keywords—renewable energy, waste, PLTSa.
I. INTRODUCTION
Electrical energy is something that cannot be separated from
human life today, the majority of human activities are carried out
by relying on the slightest electrical energy. However, every day
the number of population growth, especially in Jabodetabek, which
continues to increase is directly proportional to the increasing
demand for electrical energy per day. The increase in demand for
electrical energy is not accompanied by an increase in reserves of
oil or fuel for electricity generation, so a new renewable energy
source is needed that is appropriate to be used as a solution to the
problem of depleting available basic fossil fuels. In Indonesia, basic
fossil fuels are the main source of energy in the process of
generating electricity even though the reserves of fossil fuels in the
bowels of the earth are decreasing [1].
The problem of increasing population in DKI Jakarta does not
only affect the increase in the amount of energy demand every day,
but the problem of increasing waste also affects the environment
where the increasing number of residents in an area in theory will
also increase the amount of waste that will be disposed of every
day. The energy sector, especially in Indonesia, is experiencing
serious problems because the ratio of growth in domestic energy
demand exceeds the growth in energy supply [2]. Now the national
priority in the field of new and renewable energy is to make plans
for the utilization of urban waste, this condition has been used as the
background for utilizing waste as an object of research in converting
electrical energy. Currently, there is only one Waste Power Plant
that is used as a method of utilizing urban waste collected at the
TPA to be used as electrical energy, when viewed from the amount
of organic waste from urban waste in big cities it has the potential to
be utilized. into electrical energy (waste to energy) so that together
with the government's plan to build as many as 3-5 units of Waste to
Energy at the Bantargebang TPST to consume around 18 million
m3 of existing waste [3]. Based on the explanation above, it is used
as background for writing to analyze the potential of waste in the
Jabodetabek area which is centered at the Bantargebang Centralized
Waste Disposal Site (TPST) as an alternative renewable energy
material in an effort to provide additional electrical energy in the
Jabodetabek area. So that with this research, it can later become a
reference or even a follow-up plan to optimize the potential of
renewable energy such as garbage so that the longer the piles of
garbage will be more useful [3].
This research uses the thermal gasification method in
calculating the amount of electrical energy that can be generated
from the waste. It can be seen in advance that similar studies are
using several different methods. While the thermal gasification
method itself has also been used as a research method in several
different places. By using a method that is different from previous
research, it is hoped that it will be able to compare the best
opportunities and efficiencies for producing electricity from waste
fuel, especially at the Bantargebang TPST to support the
achievement of the utilization ratio of New and Renewable Energy
as a producer of electrical energy in DKI Jakarta, which is 23% in
2025 This study aims to analyze the potential amount of waste to
energy that can be generated from the amount of waste in DKI
Jakarta each year along with the utilization of waste as one of the
New Renewable Energy which has the potential to support the
achievement of the utilization ratio of New Renewable Energy as a
basic material for producing electrical energy in DKI Jakarta and
also to analyze the projected calculation of electricity demand in
DKI Jakarta Province based on an analysis of the population growth
ratio and GRDP growth ratio in DKI Jakarta for the next 10 years
[4].
2023 4th International Conference on High Voltage Engineering and Power Systems (ICHVEPS)
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2. II. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
A. Waste Management
Waste management is all activities that aim to handle waste
from the time it is produced to the point of recycling, not stopping
at disposal because the waste will accumulate even more if there is
no treatment after waste disposal. Broadly speaking, waste
management itself includes controlling waste piles, waste
collection, transport of waste disposal, waste processing, final
disposal, and waste utilization. There are several methods of waste
management and their application including Open Dumpling or
utilizing open disposal, Controlled Landfill where the accumulated
waste is covered with soil, Sanitary Landfills which coats the
surface of the waste first with geotextiles, Incineration or by
burning the waste at a temperature of 800-1.200°C [5] .
Converting waste into electrical energy or often called PLTSa is
a type of electrical energy generator that utilizes waste as the main
raw material [6]. In addition to generating electricity, PLTSa plays
an important role in efforts to reduce the amount of waste in
society. So that PLTSa is one of the efforts to deal with
environmental pollution which is very beneficial for the
community.
The sample in this study is all the waste in Bantargebang TPST
and is in DKI Jakarta, as well as the data that will be used for
analysis, which includes data on all waste in Bantargebang TPST
based on data released by the Central Bureau of Statistics,
population data for period 5 past years to determine the population
growth ratio, demographic data for DKI Jakarta Province as well as
some supporting data such as GRDP data, data on waste categories
per day and their categories from each region in DKI Jakarta, and
the like [7].
Thermal Gassification method is chemically process that
converts a solid fuel flask and produces gas, requiring the air used
for the combustion process to be higher than the surrounding air.
The chemical reactions that occur during this process are
endothermic, requiring external heat during the process. The main
media in this process are air and steam, and the resulting products
are classified as permanent solids, liquids, and gases. The resulting
gas has a lower calorific value, but the process becomes easier.
B. Waste Energy Potential
Calculation of the potential energy potential generated by
PLTSa can be known by knowing how much waste is produced by
the area so that the amount of energy can be calculated. The
formula or method for calculating the amount of waste dumped per
day in an area is by extrapolating or projecting the total population
using the formula:
Total Landfill Waste (ton/day) = population x
stockpiles per capita (kg/day) (1)
The amount of waste that can be generated per individual in a
big city is recorded on average around 0.5 kg/capita/day. Piles of
waste in big cities range from 2-2.5 liters/person/day or 0.4-0.5
kg/person/day. If you want to know the total amount of landfill
waste generated in a year, you can calculate the average amount of
landfill waste per day, then multiply it by 365 days/1 year. So after
the previous calculations have been carried out, how much capacity
is obtained from the amount of waste generated per year, so that it
can then be converted into Gigajoules units by calculating the
amount of waste generated multiplied by 14 Gigajoules. So that
later the power that can be generated from municipal waste energy
(MSW) can be obtained by calculating using the formula:
P = (2)
From the formula above, the generated power can be calculated
by assuming a capacity factor/Cf of MSW of 0.75% along with an
annual capacity factor of 8760 hours in units of 1 year of
production.
In the LEAP program, energy requirements can be calculated in
two ways, namely the final energy method and the useful energy
method. In the final energy demand analysis, each energy demand is
calculated as the product of activity level and energy intensity.
Activity is a measure of social and economic activity that affects
energy needs. In contrast to energy intensity which is the average
energy consumption per unit level of energy user
operation/technology [8]. This energy demand can be calculated
using the base year and simulation period set in LEAP, The
approach used by LEAP is a modeling structure that uses an
accounting framework approach. This modeling can be used to
design energy systems that use several variables related to the
physical description of the system, its impact on the environment
such as emissions, along with the costs incurred for the realization
of the simulation. The output from LEAP itself is in the form of text
which can be used as input for the optimization module of the Open
Source Energy Modeling System (OSeMOSYS), the calculation
results from OSeMOSYS are then used again by LEAP to then be
used as the result of the least-cost system [8].
III. STUDY CASE
A. Energy Demand
In 2021, the largest consumption of electric power in DKI Jakarta
will reach 14.700 GWh from the household sector. The lowest
energy consumption is in the public and social sectors with a
capacity of 2924 GWh. The details of the total national electricity
consumption in 2021 are as shown in Table I.
TABLE I. SALES OF ELECTRICITY IN DKI JAKARTA
No Group
Energy Sold
(GWh)
Portion
(%)
1 Household 14.700 44.28
2 Business 11.806 35.56
3 Public 2.924 8.8
4 Industry 3765 11,34
Total 33.194 100
In 2021 waste production = 7.233,82 x 365 days = 2.640.344,3
tons, Based on the energy conversion contained in the LEAP
software, 1 ton of municipal solid waste equals 14GJ or 3,878 MWh.
So, Electrical Energy Potential = 2.649.344,3 x 14 = 37.090.820,2
GJ or 10.274.157,2 MWh.
Based on the energy conversion contained in the LEAP software,
1GJ is equal to 0,277MWh so that 10.274.157,2 MWh is obtained
from the potential for electrical energy generated by municipal waste
in 2021. So that the maximum power capacity (MW) generated from
municipal waste can be calculated by the equation the CF value or
capacity factor for the municipal waste power plant used is 75% or
0,75.
So that the results obtained are:
MW=(10.274.157,2 MWh)/(0.75 x 8760) = 1.563,79866 MW
In the LEAP application, the calculation of energy demand can be
done with the equation:
D = TA x EI (3)
Where D is the amount of energy required in proportion to TA
(activity in the energy sector) and EI (energy intensity). Energy
activity here is represented by a driving variable which can be in the
form of demographic or macro-economic data, and energy intensity
is the energy consumed per activity. Total demand or sectoral energy
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3. demand is influenced by detailed different activities so as to form the
composition or structure of energy demand.
TABLE II. ENERGY DEMAND SIMULATION RESULTS
Year
Sector (GWh)
Total
Household Business Industry Public
2021 14.700 11.806 3.765 2.924 33.195
2022 16.578 12.402 3.955 3.072 36.007
2023 16.757 13.029 4.155 3.227 37.167
2024 16.938 13.686 4.365 3.390 38.379
2025 17.121 14.378 4.585 3.561 39.644
2026 17.306 15.105 4.817 3.741 40.967
2027 17.493 15.866 5.060 3.930 42.349
2028 17.682 16.668 5.315 4.128 43.793
2029 17.873 17.509 5.584 4.337 45.302
2030 18.066 18.394 5.866 4.556 46.881
2031 18.261 19.323 6.162 4.786 48.531
After calculating energy demand using LEAP software, the data
is shown in Table II.
From Table II, the increase in DKI Jakarta's energy demand
every year experiences a growth that is directly proportional to the
total population growth in DKI Jakarta and also the growth of DKI
Jakarta's GRDP. The demand for electrical energy in each sector has
increased, moreover, a significant increase is expected to occur in
the Commercial sector and also the Industrial sector where at the
beginning of the simulation year, namely in 2021 the Commercial
sector has an energy demand of 11,806 GWh but at the end of the
simulation this sector has an energy demand of 19,323 GWh beat the
household sector.
FIGURE I. ENERGY DEMAND SIMULATION GRAPH
The increase in energy demand in all of these sectors is inseparable
from the number of population growth each year and also the
development of the industry so that the projected GRDP growth in
DKI Jakarta every year experiences a significant increase and affects
the demand for electrical energy in DKI Jakarta every year.
B. PLTSa Bantargebang Projection
The use of waste as a new, renewable energy source of electrical
energy in the form of a Waste Power Plant (PLTSa) is calculated
using basic data on waste generated in 2021. Following previous
calculations where waste in 2021 can generate electrical energy of
1,563.79866 MW, based on simulations which were carried out on
the LEAP software, a projection of PLTSa with a capacity of 890
MW was obtained, this is due to the current conditions at the
Bantargebang TPST there are still piles of garbage that already
existed before the garbage was collected in 2021, or there were
already piles of garbage in previous years so that the simulation
makes PLTSa projections for 1 year after the start of the simulation,
namely in 2021 as shown in Figure II below in 2022-2024 PLTSa
has a generating capacity of 890 MW and increases in 2025-2029 to
1050 MW and in 2030-2032 increased to 1,300 MW following the
projected growth in the amount of waste that is projected to increase
in direct proportion to population growth and also following the total
calculation of the potential for electrical energy generated from
waste.
FIGURE II. GENERATION CAPACITY PROJECTION
This is of course related to the supply of electrical energy for the
city of DKI Jakarta which has increased from the previous one.
Based on the simulation results for DKI Jakarta's electricity demand
and also the PLTSa projection. a graph of the influence of PLTSa on
the supply of electricity demand in DKI Jakarta is obtained which
can be seen in Figure III below.
FIGURE III. THE EFFECT OF PLTSA ON ENERGY DEMAND IN
JAKARTA
Although it does not have a significant impact as can be seen in
Figure III, wherein 2023 of the projected total energy demand of
37,167 GWh, the PLTSa projection will only supply no more than
5% of the total energy demand. This figure is relatively small
because what is used as a comparison is a mix of all energy including
conventional energy or fossil energy, so if you look at the value of
the New Renewable Energy mix alone, this number is quite large to
help project a New Renewable Energy mix of 23% in 2025. And if
compared to 2021 where there is only 600 MW of Renewable
Energy Generating Capacity added, the value of 1500 MW for
PLTSa Thermal Gasification Capacity is quite large, up to two times
larger. In other words, PLTSa does not affect the amount of energy
produced as a whole, but benefits can be extracted from the
renewable energy mix in DKI Jakarta, and several aspects have been
resolved, one of which is the unresolved waste management problem
and also the environment condition.
IV. RESULT
From the analysis results, the calculation of the amount of
potential waste to energy that can be generated from the amount of
waste in DKI Jakarta every year if waste is used as one of the New
Renewable Energy in the Bantargebang TPST environment can
produce electrical energy generators with a capacity of
1,563.79866 MW. So it has the potential to produce electrical
energy of 37,090,820.2 GJ or 10.274.157,2 MWh. The projection
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4. of energy demand calculation as can be seen in Table II shows
energy demand in DKI Jakarta Province tends to increase every
year for the next 10 years. The ratio of population growth that
increases every year can be said to be directly related to the
increase in estimated energy demand in the following years. The
Energy Demand Graph in DKI Jakarta shows an increase in DKI
Jakarta's energy demand in several sectors such as Household,
Industrial, Commercial, Social and Public. This is directly
proportional to the number of population growth in DKI Jakarta
and the growth of the GRDP of DKI Jakarta. The use of waste as
renewable energy in the form of PLTSa Thermal Gasification does
not have a significant impact on DKI Jakarta's electricity supply,
which is less than 5% of the projected energy demand.
V. CONCLUSIONS
Although it does not have a significant impact as can be seen in
Figure III, wherein 2023 of the projected total energy demand of
37,167 GWh, the PLTSa projection will only supply no more than
5% of the total energy demand. This number is relatively small
because what is used as a comparison is a mix of all energy
including conventional energy or fossil energy, so if you look at the
value of the New Renewable Energy mix alone, this number is quite
large to help project a New Renewable Energy mix of 23% in 2025.
And if compared to 2021 where there is only 600 MW of Renewable
Energy Generating Capacity added, the value of 1500 MW for
PLTSa Thermal Gasification Capacity is quite large, up to two times
larger.
For further research, it is possible to calculate costs using
LEAP software and output to the environment. In realizing the
PLTSa Thermal Gasification project, managers or the government
must ensure its impact on the environment and various factors that
may be affected by the realization of this PLTSa, such as health,
environmental and energy factors. Based on the projected analysis
of PLTSa development in the Bantargebang TPST area, it can then
be compared with other methods such as Landfill Gasification,
Thermal Combustion, Refuse Derived Fuel, etc.
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