This document discusses several topics related to land degradation and sustainability in food and farming systems. It provides the following key points: - Land degradation in the form of erosion costs $490 billion annually globally and $70 per person, yet these costs do not appear in current accounting systems. - Agricultural systems are at risk due to human impacts that have reached a new scale and quality in the Anthropocene era. - Phosphorus is an essential nutrient that is critical for food security, but its efficiency of use is very low and up to 12 million tons end up in the sea each year. Future supply and costs of phosphorus are uncertain. - Germany's "Energiewende" (

1. SOILS FOR DEVELOPMENT
TRUE-COST ACCOUNTING IN FOOD
AND FARMING
London, 04. Dec. 2013
Alexander Müller
Senior Fellow
Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS)
Potsdam/Germany

2. Economics of Land Degradation I (source: ELD)

3. Economics of Land Degradation II (source: ELD)

4. Land degradation. Some simple
figures:
• 24 billion tons lost by erosion (wind and water)
• 3.4 tons per person a year
• In some areas of Somalia up to 100 tons/ha and year
• Erosion costs every person 70 per year globally
• 490 Bill USD year
• THESE COSTS DO NOT APPEAR IN THE CURRENT ACCOUNTING SYSTEMS

5. Agricultural systems at risk
(source FAO, SOLAW report)

6. The ANTHROPOCENE
• Humans alterations on nature and the effects of these
actions have reached a new quantity and quality
• We are living in the ANTHROPOCENE (Paul Crutzen)
• “Humanity is acting now as a quasi-geological force on a
planetary scale that will qualitatively and irreversibly alter
the natural Earth System mode of operation ― should
business-as-usual be pursued”. (Nobel Laureate
Symposium “Sustainability – A Nobel Cause, 2007)
• Fertilizers and Phosphorus – Can we repair or hide land
degradation?

7. Trends in
Fertilizer
use
Tilman et al., 2002
FAO SOLAW 2011

8. Cordell et al 2009

9. Phosphorus: a critical element in food security
• Is an essential element for any living organism and it cannot
be substituted
• A very low efficiency in phosphorus use along the chain:
The input of P from mining amounts to around 24 Mt,
people on the planet only eat around 3 Mt P
• And around 10 -12 Mt from mined P are transfered to the
sea!
• „..planetary boundaries for eutrophication of freshwaters
by P have alreaqdy been surpassed.“(de Haes et al. 1997)
• Will there be enough P in future and what are the costs???

10. Outlook2050/80: provisional nutritional outcomes (global
averages/aggregates) (source: FAO, outlook)
undernourished
% of population with
kcal/person/day
%
million
>2700
>3000
%
million
2005/07
13
844
57
28
9
570
2050
4
330
91
52
15
1400
2080
2
150
98
66
21
2000
obese

11. The „Energiewende“ in Germany
as an example of a sueccessfull transformation
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12. The „Energiewende“ started back in 1986!
„To invent a future without nuclear energy“ has started after Chernobyl
 A process of 35 years!
„Bipartisan consensus“ in the German Parliament in 2011
Already back in 2001: Red-Green coalition decided
to phase out nuclear

However, a „Partisan decision“
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13. Feed-in tariffs photovoltaics in Germany
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14. Negative electricity prices (Energy Exchange) – Example June 2013
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15. Conditions for a successful „Energiewende“
When weighing up the goal conflicts, careful consideration must
be given to the following criteria:
climate protection
security of supply
economic and financial viability, also taking into account social
aspects
competitiveness,
research and innovation, and
avoiding one-sided import dependencies for Germany.
(Ethics Commission on a Safe Energy Supply)
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