2. 2
Integrated Resource Planning (IRP)*—Linking
Supply and Demand
Competitive
Forecasts
Revenue
Forecasts
Market Size
Demand Side Analysis
•Market Potential
•Purchase Behavior
•Economic Trends
•Niche Segments
•Competing Technologies
•Pricing Analysis/Forecasts
•Product Opportunities Supply Side Analysis
•Industry Structure
•Competitive Positioning
•Product
•Pricing
•Promotion
•Distribution
•Innovation
•Alliances, JVs, M&A
Competitive
Forecasts
Revenue
Forecasts
Market Size
Used for:
Externalized
Opportunity/
Threat Analysis
Demand Side Analysis
•Market Potential
•Purchase Behavior
•Economic Trends
•Niche Segments
•Competing Technologies
•Pricing Analysis/Forecasts
•Product Opportunities Supply Side Analysis
•Industry Structure
•Competitive Positioning
•Product Availability
•Pricing
•Promotion
•Distribution
•Innovation
•Alliances, JVs, M&A
•Environmental Impacts
Used for:
Internalized
Strength/
Weakness
Analysis
* IRP has become a formal process prescribed by law in some American states and under some provisions of the 'Clean
Air Act Amendments of 1992'.
3. 3
Program Evaluation Model
CIPP evaluation modelis a Program evaluation model which was developed by Daniel
Stufflebeam and Colleagues. CIPP is an acronym for Context, Input, Process and Product.
Context: What needs to
be done? Vs. Were
important needs
addressed?
Input: How should it be
done? Vs. Was a
defensible design
employed?
Process: Is it being done?
Vs. Was the design well
executed?
Product: Is it succeeding?
Vs. Did the effort succeed?
4. 4
Needs Assessment in Four Steps
See Rossi, P, H., Lipsey, W. M., & Freeman, H. E. (2004). Evaluation: A systematic approach (7th ed.).
Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE
4
Perform a ‘gap’ analyses compare current
situation to the desired or necessary outcomes
Identify priorities and importance by considering the following
factors: cost effectiveness, executive pressure and population
Identify causes of performance problems and/or
opportunities
Identify possible solutions and
growth opportunities
1
22
3
4
5. 5
Program Design
• Are the program goals and objectives well defined?
• Are the program goals and objectives feasible?
• Is the change process presumed in the program theory feasible?
• Are the procedures for identifying members of the target population,
delivering service to them, and sustaining that service through
completion well defined and sufficient?
• Are the constituent components, activities, and functions of the program
well defined and sufficient?
• Are the resources allocated to the program and its various activities
adequate?
Wholey Joseph S, Hatry Harry P, Newcomer Kathryn E et al. (2010). Handbook of Practical
Progam Evaluation Third Edition. San Francisco: JosseyBass.
ISBN 9780470522479.
6. 6
Process Evaluation looks at the actual
development and implementation
●
Determines whether the components identified as critical to the
success of the program are being implemented.
●
Establishes whether you’ve hit quantifiable targets and implemented
strategies as planned.
●
Typically done at the end of the project and it looks at the program
from start to finish, assessing cause-and-effect relationships between
the program components and outcomes.
●
The evaluation determines whether target populations are being
reached, people are receiving the intended services, staff are
adequately qualified.
●
This type of evaluation can be very useful in determining whether a
program should be continued, expanded upon, refined or eliminated.
7. 7
Impact Evaluation assesses the changes that can
be attributed to a particular program.
Helps people answer key questions for evidence-based policy
making:
●
what works,
●
what doesn’t,
●
where,
●
why
●
and for how much?
8. 8
Specific Evaluation Tasks
Task 2:
Survey
Design
Task3:
Sampling
Plan
Task 1:
Start-up
meeting
Task 4:
Data
Collection
Task 5:
Conduct
Process
Impact
Evaluations
Task 6:
Reporting
9. 9
Task 1: Startup meeting
Subtask 1.1: Project Initiation Meeting. The first task includes a meeting with the
project manager and other staff who will be involved with the project. This meeting
would take place shortly after the selection of a contractor. At the project initiation
meeting, we will discuss our proposed research plan and any changes you would like
us to make, identify specific sources of information and background concerning the
Program, and establish our plans for training and collaborating with you on the billing
records analysis. This will include starting the process of obtaining the necessary
program tracking system records and billing history data.
Subtask 1.2: Final Research Plan. Based on the project initiation meeting and any
additional information we receive from you, we will prepare a final research plan for
the process and impact evaluations that outlines the research activities, the work plan,
the proposed analytical approaches, and the schedule for all deliverables. Included in
this final plan will be a description of the various sources of client data that may be
needed for the study
10. 10
Task 2: Survey Design
In this task, we will design separate surveys for both participating and nonparticipating
customers, as well as program designers, outside vendors and other important
stakeholders. There are a variety of methods to collect the data:
• On line
• By telephone
• In person
• By mail
• The selection of the design can not be done in isolation from cost considerations
because design considerations and data collection procedures have cost
implications.
• In general, higher reliability does mean larger data collection efforts.
• Explicit cost trade-offs should be made that lead to the selection of research designs
based on the intended purpose, the expected information, and the costs involved.
• The customer surveys will include items that address the researchable questions in
the process evaluation, as well as supporting data for the impact analyses.
11. 11
Task 3: Sampling Design
• The most important part of sampling is to be certain that the sample
design provides the necessary information about the target groups that
have been designated.
• In order to analyze the relationship between cost and accuracy, we
begin by generating a simple random sample. We than compare the
stratified sample to the random sample to analyze the cost-to-efficiency
ratio.
• The study will include a census of participants and a randomly selected
sample of nonparticipants to meet the goals of both the process and the
impact analysis. A portion of the nonparticipant sample will be selected
as a comparison group to participants installing key technologies and
will be used for the impact analysis. For the process evaluation, the
nonparticipant sample must represent all eligible nonparticipants and for
the market analysis the participants will be combined with the
nonparticipant sample to represent all eligible customers.
12. 12
Task 4: Data Collection
• The goal of this task is to collect accurate and reliable data from
the sample groups in the most cost-effective manner.
• We do all the monitoring, editing, and data entry in-house, as
well as clean the data sets and prepare the documentation.
• Prior to data collection, each survey version will be pretested
with a small group of customers,These pretests will be used to
test the question wording, survey layout, and the survey
procedures with the intended audience.
• We generally use a on-line/mail survey for participating
customers. On the other hand, we tend to use a telephone-on-
line/mail survey for nonparticipating customers, especially if a
screening call is needed to determine whether nonparticipating
customers are within the scope of the study and, if so, to whom
the survey should be sent. Key stakeholders are generally
interviewed in person.
13. 13
Task 5a: Conduct Process Evaluation
• Interventions, no matter how well conceived, can not be effective
and efficient unless there are carefully developed delivery
systems. In order to determine the operational efficiencies of
programs, the elements of the delivery system must be
examined and the criteria of performance developed and
measured. Among the delivery mechanism questions to be
asked are:
• Based upon our in-person interviews with significant
stakeholders, such as program staff, outside contractors, and
the like, as well as customer surveys, we will make
recommendations on the following: (1) means of optimizing
access to the intervention, including any method available to
expand program potential; (2) identification of a target population
for the programs to assist n determining what customers are
most likely to participate in these programs; and (3) referral and
follow-up efforts that may be needed.
14. 14
Task 5b: Conduct Impact evaluation
At this stage of the evaluation, the billing history, program tracking
records, and weather data are combined with the survey data collected
as part of the process evaluation. Generally speaking this includes the
following:
• Implement Sample Selection Procedures and Prepare Billing or
Metered Data;
• Assess Pre- Program Comparability of Participant and Nonparticipant
Samples;
• Collect Post-Period Billing Data;
• Conduct Billing Analyses(Statistically Adjusted Engineering Model
Specification and Choosing Explanatory Variables);
• Estimation of Demand Impacts for Selected Program;
• Estimation of Free-Rider and Free-Driver Effects;
• Incorporate Persistence and Reliability into the Evaluation Design
15. 15
Task 6: Reporting
There are two primary goals of the reporting task. The first is to describe
the methods and results obtained from all survey and all the data
analyses. The second is to organize this information into a usable and
useful assessment of the factors affecting customer adoption of demand-
side measures and equipment and to estimate of actual demand and
savings at the program and end-use level.
The final report will also include suggestions for data base improvements,
including changes to the structure (if necessary), additional variables to
be included, and internal checks to regularly monitor the integrity of the
data base. This assessment will address data base design and the extent
of additional programming required for data base reporting. Specifically,
we will examine the consistency in the use of codes and the ease of
aggregation (or disaggregation) of data to levels appropriate for analysis
and evaluation purposes.
16. 16
Case Studies
Market Transformation/Demand‑side Management Chief
architect of major market transformation/demand side‑
management studies for many utilities throughout the country.
This experience includes the designing and evaluation of rebate,
dealer incentive, and direct load programs for both residential and
commercial customers. Below is a selected listing.
New Construction Program Evaluation The main goal of this
study is to maximize participation in GPU-sponsored new
construction energy-efficiency programs, as well as to minimize
the lost opportunities in the new construction market. The
objectives of this study were to determine the interrelationships
among new construction decision makers; to discover at what
stage in decision-making process, to whom, and how GPU should
direct its energy-efficiency efforts; to review what methods are
available for consumers or vendors to self-identify themselves as
potential program participants; and to evaluate what signals are
readily available that are indicative of customer entry into the new
construction market. These goals were accomplished using a
combination of in-person and telephone interviews involving
architects, contractors or design engineers, equipment vendors
and/or full-maintenance equipment contractors
Energy Management Programs for New Jersey Businesses Evaluation
The main goal of this study was to increase program participation and to
help provide information to redesign the GPU's Power Savers program.
Other objectives were to examine why selected companies participate/don't
participate; consider what measures have the greatest likelihood of success;
determine awareness of the program; ascertain what type of measures they
would consider, and whether they would consider GPU as a partner;
discover how vendors react to the program, their awareness of the program
and reasons for not participating; investigate participants likes or dislikes
about the program (application complexity, rebate level, delivery); examine
whether past participants and eligible customers feel they have taken
advantage of all the energy efficient opportunities at their business;
determine who are the decision-makers and how they make purchasing
decisions; and gauge what energy technologies companies currently use
and who are the providers. It was accomplished with a combination in-
person vendor interviews and quantitative consumer surveys.
Two-way Communication Pilot Evaluation This evaluation of GPU's
ACCESS two-way communications system was designed to: document
customer's experience throughout the pilot--including pre-installation
processes, actual installation of the equipment, customer service after
installation, the product itself, meeting their expectation with respect to
performance of the equipment, savings in monthly electric bills, and the like.
It also examined customer's behavioral issues--including their reaction to
variable prices, having more control and choice, having the ability to
customize energy use to match individual lifestyles, maximizing customer
satisfaction and loyalty with respect to these enhanced services. Moreover,
it was used to determine customer's attitude toward the interaction two-way
communication system in general; and establish customer's willingness to
purchase Access system (price per month or year; and forecast what future
value-added products and services could be offered via TranstexT like
platform. It was accomplished with a combination of competitive industry
analysis, focus groups, and quantitative surveys.
17. 17
Case Studies
Process Evaluation of Potomac Electric Power's Early Chiller
Retirement Component of the Custom Rebate Program The
process evaluation was designed to: assess the operational
performance of the program; identify strengths and weaknesses in
the delivery systems, including marketing; assess the role of trade
allies; measure participant satisfaction; evaluate customer
perception of and provide recommendations for the "systems
approach"; identify reasons for non-participation by eligible
customers; collect data to assess the level of free riders and cream
skimming; provide recommendations to improve awareness;
assess the comprehensive nature of the program, and if customers
are aware of and have taken advantage of all energy saving
opportunities; assess the effect of the program on the size of the
chiller used; assess the reason why fewer packaged unit
applications have been received and identify ways to increase the
number of packaged unit applications; identify the conservation
measures the participant would have undertaken, if any, in the
absence of the program; and identify other opportunities for
program improvement. These goals were accomplished with a
combination of surveys, one-on-one interviews, and focus groups
involving these key groups; program participants, eligible
nonparticipating customers, program staff, and trade allies
Evaluations of Boston Edison's Public Housing
Authorities (PHA) Program and the Boston Housing
Authority (BHA) Program These were comprehensive
evaluations of Public Housing Authorities (PHA) and Boston
Housing Authority (BHA) programs over two successive years.
The four components of these evaluations were (1) an impact
evaluation to identify both the Kwh and Kw impacts of the
programs; (2) an implementation analysis and program data
base assessment of Kwh and Kw savings, which includes a
review of program accomplishments and program costs; (3) a
process evaluation to assess program design, marketing and
delivery, implementation, and administration; and (4) a
program optimization component that includes on-site visits to
validate the reported installations, implementation quality,
comprehensiveness, remaining resources, new opportunities,
and persistence. These evaluations were accomplished with a
combination of surveys, focus groups, interviews, and site
visits with building occupants, housing authority staffs,
program staff, field staff, implementation contractors,
subcontractors, and installers, and collaborative consultants.
18. 18
Case Studies
ULIEEP Data Collection Protocols Project The Utility Low
Income Energy Efficiency Program (ULIEEP) is a pilot
program for residential low income electric or gas heating
customers in New York State. The program delivers
weatherization, gas and electric conservation, and education
services through in-home visits by trained conservation
specialists. The overall goal of the project was to develop a
system of data collection protocols to be used by all utilities
involved in the ULIEEP initiative to facilitate the comparison
of results across the nine member utilities. In order to
establish data collection standards, this study developed
formats for specific data items, and suggested standard
procedures for collecting data
Process Evaluation of Consumers Power Company's
Industrial Buy-Back Program Consumers Power Company
(CPCo) had offered its industrial customers the Industrial
Buy-Back Program to reduce customers' energy costs and to
promote energy conservation on CPCo's electric and gas
systems..
This process evaluation was designed to document the
program history, describe the program, evaluate the program
objectives, learn from participants how they felt about the
program and about their satisfaction with the program results,
explore program barriers and program alternatives with those
customers who were approached about the program but do
not participate identify program marketing problems, and
determine possible solutions for different markets segments.
The interviews for this process evaluation were qualitative
and exploratory in nature and relied mostly on open-ended
questions, accompanied by a significant amount of ad-hoc
probing. Interviews were conducted program staff members,
a Michigan Public Service official, a representative of a third-
party intervenor, all companies with signed contracts, all
companies currently negotiating contracts, and most
customers who sent in applications but who did not submit a
proposal, as well as customers who did not respond to the
offering.
19. 19
Case Studies
Joint Process Evaluation for Energy Opportunities and
Energy Blueprint Programs This joint process evaluation
examined United Illuminating's two commercial and industrial
conservation and load management programs, Energy
Opportunities and Energy Blueprint. The goals of this process
evaluation were, as follows: to document the history of the
ENERGY OPPORTUNITIES and ENERGY BLUEPRINT
programs; to identify barriers to participation; to evaluate
program administration, implementation and delivery; to
evaluate program marketing; and to review program record
keeping. This was accomplished with a combination of
surveys, interviews, and site visits involving program
participants from the two programs, nonparticipating
customers eligible for the two programs (including program
dropouts), program staff, district or field staff, vendors
representing each of the primary C&LM measure categories,
and a CLF consultant participating in the collaborative
process.
Gauging the Impact of Customer Contributions on
Participation Levels in New England Power Services'
Small Commercial and Lighting Program The study's
purpose was to gauge the possible impact of customer
contributions on participation levels of small commercial and
industrial in NEPSCo's Small Commercial and Industrial
Lighting Program. Based on focus groups with program
participants, eligible nonparticipants, in-person labor vendor
interviews, and a phone survey of eligible nonparticipants the
study provided an estimation of the impact of required
customer contributions on program participation. A variety of
statistical techniques were employed to model the impact of
customer contributions on participation, as well as to gauge
the impact of beliefs, attitudes, normative beliefs, and norms
on the propensity of eligible customers to participate in this
utility-sponsored DSM program.
20. 20
Case Studies
Marketing the Design 2000 Program to the Renovation,
Remodeling, and Replacement Markets This study was
used to guide the marketing of New England Power Service
Company's Design 2000 Program to the renovation,
remodeling, and replacement markets. In-person and
telephone interviews with small commercial and industrial
customers, government entities, institutional clients,
architects, engineers, design consultants, owners,
developers, service contractors, facilities managers, financial
corporate managers, administrators, vendors, and
manufacturers were used to determine the interrelationship
among remodeling, replacement, and renovation
replacement decision makers. Flow charts were then
developed to diagnose the interrelationship among decision
makers, in order to design an effective marketing program for
time-sensitive DSM measures.
Refrigerator Benchmark This study called 15,000 New Yorkers
and asked whether they had installed a new refrigerator in their
household. From responses to this question, the purchase rate
of new refrigerators within Con Edison's service territory was
determined. Information was also gathered on average size,
FTC energy rating, defrost type, make, model, and origin of
purchase for each unit identified. The data collected serves as a
benchmark to measure the efficiency of a new conservation
program promoting the sale of energy efficient refrigerators.‑
Demand‑side Marketing Execution Evaluation This study
performed for Potomac Electric Power Company assessed their
demand side marketing efforts. The study consisted of both new‑
sign ups for a direct load control program, as well as customers‑
who would be potentially eligible if this program were offered. In
both of these groups, EPRI's Classify segmentation was
performed in conjunction with geodemographic segmentation to
further evaluate marketing executions. Also included in this
study was a group of PEPCO customers who are required to
participate in time-of-use rates.
21. 21
Case Studies
A Survey of Customers Who Have Purchased a Qualified
Air Conditioner from a Participating Dealer This study
was designed to identify the level of ownership,
characteristics and use of major electricity using appliances‑
within Con Edison's service territory. The survey of
approximately 1,000 respondents was focused on the
ownership and actual and planned air conditioner usage
among customers who recently purchased a 9.0 or greater
EER air conditioner from a dealer who participated in Con
Edison's dealer incentive program. This group of customers
was then compared to a representative sample of customers
who were at home during summer weekday afternoons.
GuideLine Users Survey This survey examined Con Edison
customers who used the company's Appliance Efficiency
GuideLine. The GuideLine provides free of charge‑ ‑
information on air conditioners and refrigerators. The survey
examined 250 customers' experiences and attitudes toward
the GuideLine and gauged the impact of the GuideLine on
energy efficiency.
The Marketing of Dispatchable Load Management In this
study, focus groups, conjoint analysis, cluster coding, and
matched sample survey research were used to determine an‑
overall marketing strategy for the direct load control of electric
water heaters within the New England System companies'
service territories. The objectives of the study were to identify
both attitudinal and demographic factors that directly impact on
customer satisfaction, to examine how monetary incentives
can best be structured to encourage participation, to determine
the relationship between incentive levels and participation, and
finally, to design an overall marketing strategy for the program.
Attitudes of Commercial and Industrial Customers Toward
Energy Conservation and Cost‑Control Actions This
survey of 800 commercial and industrial customers within
AMEREN's service territory focused on profiling what
demand side actions businesses have taken to control their‑
use of electricity. Also measured in this study was the level of
interest in alternative usage actions, such as new rate
structures, interruptible rates, and cogeneration. The sample
was stratified by usage levels allocated by summer and winter
usage levels.
22. 22
Case Studies
The Post‑Pilot Commercial Study Using a matched pair‑
methodology, small commercial customers were recontacted
at the end of the pilot program to examine changes in
attitudes and behavior that could be attributed to an air
conditioner pilot program. A sample of 170 commercial
customers within three preselected areas in Brooklyn were
recontacted.
Queens Landlord Pilot Evaluation Study Using a
matched sample methodology, Queens landlords were‑
recontacted at the end of the pilot program to examine
changes in attitudes and behavior that could be attributed to
the pilot program. A sample of 125 landlords were
interviewed and compared. An Evaluation of the Pilot
Program for Energy Efficient Air Conditioners, an extensive‑
evaluation of the impact of Con Edison's rebate program for
energy efficient air conditioners, was done. For this study,‑
over 1,700 completed interviews were used to assess the
pilot rebate program. Residential customers were compared
in three preselected areas to determine the effect of rebates
and information on people's buying behavior.
An Evaluation of a Pilot Program for Energy‑Efficient
Refrigerators An extensive evaluation of the impact of Con
Edison's rebate and information program was done. For this
study, over 1,200 completed interviews were done to assess
the impact of rebates and information on consumer buying
patterns in three preselected areas. Also included in this market
test was information on overall refrigerator buying behavior.
An Evaluation of a Pilot Program for Energy‑Efficient
Lighting In this Con Edison study, 34 watt fluorescent compact‑
light bulbs were offered at different prices to residential
customers in preselected and pretested areas. The survey was
used to gauge the effectiveness of the offer, as well as to
gather more information on residential lighting behavior.
An Evaluation of an Air Conditioner Rebate Program with
Dealer Incentives This Con Edison survey was designed to
gauge the impact of offering both appliance dealers and
salespeople incentives for selling energy efficient air‑
conditioners in four preselected areas. In addition, the
interactive effect of rebates and dealer incentives was
examined in great detail. A further study was done to compare
and contrast the impact of rebates and dealer incentives on the
purchase of energy efficient air conditioners throughout Con‑
Edison's service territory.
23. 23
Case Studies
Customer Attitudes and Behavior Toward Conservation
Issues For this study prepared for Orange and Rockland, a
representative sample was drawn of 500 customers in
Orange and Rockland's service territory. The objectives of the
survey were to measure consumers' basic attitudes toward
conservation, as well as to gauge the types of measures they
are presently using or intend to use in the near future. Also,
potential communication themes were evaluated to determine
those most effective for promoting conservation.
Estimating the Market for Energy‑Efficient Appliances,
Lighting, and Conservation Measures This study
consisted of telephone interviews with a representative
sample of 300 Orange and Rockland customers,
supplemented by an oversample of 200 water heat
customers. The primary objectives were to measure basic
awareness of energy efficient appliances and to evaluate the‑
potential market for low flow showerheads and water heater‑
wraps. Also,potential rebate levels for energy efficient‑
refrigerators, air conditioners, and lighting were examined.
The Pre‑Pilot Survey For a telephone survey of 2,415 customers
within seven preselected areas of Con Edison's service territory,
the sample was drawn from seven areas that had been preselected
on the basis of demographic and housing similarity. The survey
was conducted to test for statistically significant differences in the
propensity to participate in the programs, as well as to establish a
baseline for the evaluation of Con Edison's pilot programs for air
conditioners, refrigerators, and lighting.
The Pre‑Pilot Commercial Study A telephone survey of Con
Edison's small commercial customers was conducted to determine
their potential acceptance of an air conditioner rebate program. A
sample of 450 commercial customers within three pre-selected
areas in Brooklyn were selected to establish a baseline to evaluate
the efficacy of using rebates to promote energy efficient air‑
conditioners.
Queens Landlord Attitudes Toward Energy Conservation
Issues This telephone survey of 200 landlords in Queens was
designed to measure Queens landlords' basic attitudes toward
energy conservation as a means of economizing, as well as to
assess the ownership and buying patterns for room type air‑
conditioners and refrigerators. This study also served as a
benchmark to evaluate a rebate program on the purchase of new
refrigerators and air conditioners.
24. 24
Case Studies
Estimating the Rebate Levels for Energy‑Efficient
Refrigerators, Air Conditioners, and Lighting Eight
hundred residential customers of Con Edison were contacted
by telephone in this study and questioned about their
attitudes toward energy efficiency and rebates. Responses
were analyzed to determine the appropriate rebate levels for
refrigerators, air conditioners, and lighting.
Environmental Explored major environmental issues, such
as recycling, acid rain, nuclear waste, emergency evacuation
zone planning, and hydrocarbon remediation. This experience
includes the development of behavioral predictive models to
predict participation levels, as well as on-going tracking of
emerging environmental issues.
Acid Rain Tracking For a number of Midwestern utilities
(AMEREN, Kansas City Power & Light), tracking surveys were
used to monitor customer awareness of acid rain and the
legislative agenda. These surveys were used to gauge the
impact of acid rain on consumers perceptions of the company.
Tree Mitigation In a continuing effort to improve customer
satisfaction, EUA commissioned a study to examine customer
opinions of its Hazardous Tree Mitigation (HTM) program. Ssurvey
participants were recruited in two separate communities, Easton
and Norwell, within EUA's franchise territory. These two
communities were selected for comparison purposes. In Easton,
EUA implemented its Hazardous Tree Mitigation program three
years ago, while in Norwell the program was not actualized
because of opposition. Customers were asked in Easton and
Norwell a series of questions designed to gauge their perceptions
of the overall reliability of their electric service, as well as their
recollection of the frequency and duration of their outages over the
past 12months. In addition, we asked Easton residents to compare
the reliability of their electric service now versus 3 years ago.
Green Power Feasibility Study The main goal of this green
power study is determine customers’ current use of electricity, the
level of entrenchment of that behavior and opportunities to impact
the sale of renewable energy. The study employed both focus
groups and hypothetical choice models to model likely response for
a TranAlta green power offer.
25. 25
Case Studies
Planning Creator of major utility and planning studies that are
designed to generate extensive information on appliance
saturation and usage that, in turn, can be used for supply side‑
planning and forecasting. The data generated by these studies
have been used by planners and forecasters to accurately model
system load and have suggested possible interventions to
enhance more efficient utilization of existing supply facilities. Also
included is the development of robust statistical models to more
precisely monitor and forecast demand.
Time Series I‑V Given the need for increasingly accurate
forecasts in this more competitive business environment, Con
Edison commissioned a more elaborate study of residential
peak load usage. Over 13,000 residential customers were‑
interviewed in the afternoon for this study. Optimal allocation
sampling was used to incorporate sampling design issues into the
overall forecast methodology. A supplemental study of 2,550
customers was used
to estimate saturation rates for weather sensitive appliances.‑
Also, focus groups were used to elicit from customers their
reactions to hot, humid summer weather. Special emphasis is
now being put on evaluating actual forecasting models and
weather/peak-load buildup.
Weather Peak-Load Buildup Effect Given the extreme
prolonged heat waves experienced during the summer, Con
Edison commissioned a detailed study of the buildup effect in
system peak loads. The study examined the quantity of the
buildup electric load directly related to the unusual weather
experienced during the summer, as well as the amount of
such buildup load that can be expected to carry over to the
subsequent summer.
Customer Service Evaluation Study This study,
commissioned by AMEREN, examined the relationship
between customer perceptions of service reliability and actual
outage time. A split-sample technique was used to compare
the less reliable 12kV system to the more reliable 4kV
system.
