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The Green and the Gold Roads to Open Access Stevan Harnad Canada Research Chair in Cognitive Sciences UniversitĂŠ du QuĂŠbec Ă  MontrĂŠal &  University of Southampton UK IATUL Warsaw 30 May 2011
Open Access is: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],IATUL Warsaw 30 May 2011
Open Access to What? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],IATUL Warsaw 30 May 2011
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],IATUL Warsaw 30 May 2011
Refereed “Post-Print” Accepted, Certified, Published by Journal Impact cycle begins: Research is done Researchers write  pre-refereeing  “ Pre-Print” Submitted to Journal Pre-Print reviewed by Peer Experts – “Peer-Review” Pre-Print revised by article’s Authors Researchers can access the Post-Print if their university has a subscription to the Journal 12-18 Months IATUL Warsaw 30 May 2011 New impact cycles:   New research builds on existing research
New impact cycles:  New research builds on existing research Researchers can access the Post-Print  if their university has a subscription to the Journal Refereed “Post-Print” Accepted, Certified, Published by Journal Impact cycle begins: Research is done Researchers write  pre-refereeing  “ Pre-Print” Submitted to Journal Pre-Print reviewed by Peer Experts – “Peer-Review” Pre-Print revised by article’s Authors 12-18 Months IATUL Warsaw 30 May 2011 More impact cycles:
There are plenty of repositories IATUL Warsaw 30 May 2011
Percentage of OA articles by year weighted by their number of documents published in 2007
IATUL Warsaw 30 May 2011
Author Surveys (Alma Swan) IATUL Warsaw 30 May 2011
But almost all of them are almost-empty of OA’s target content (5-25%) IATUL Warsaw 30 May 2011
Open Access: How? IATUL Warsaw 30 May 2011
Optimal OA Mandate ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],IATUL Warsaw 30 May 2011
Optimal OA Mandate ,[object Object],[object Object],IATUL Warsaw 30 May 2011
Open Access: Why? IATUL Warsaw 30 May 2011
IATUL Warsaw 30 May 2011
OA citation advantage for  pre-refreeing pre-prints in physics arXiv IATUL Warsaw 30 May 2011
Earlier download metrics correlated with later citation metrics Brody, T., Harnad, S. and Carr, L. (2006) Earlier Web Usage Statistics as Predictors of Later Citation Impact.  Journal of the American Association for Information Science and Technology (JASIST ) 57(8): 1060-1072.  http://eprints.ecs.soton.ac.uk/10713/   Data from arXiv Downloads  (“hits”)  in the first 6 months correlate with citations 2 years later  Most articles are not cited at all IATUL Warsaw 30 May 2011
Average cumulative number of citations per article as a function of article age for articles published in 1998-2009
Average cumulative number of citations per article as a function of article age by field for articles published in 2000
Cumulative number of citations per article for Mandated and Self-Selected articles (articles published in 2002) OM N =  897 ØM N =  493 OS N = 1,098 ØS N = 3,269
Separate proportions for OA vs NOA articles at each citation count
Negative Binomial Regression Exp(B)-1 values of Negative Binomial Regression for the four institutions (with and without CERN/South) (* p>0.05)
Benefit/Cost comparisons for the UK (GBP millions over 20 years and benefit/cost ratio) Centre for Strategic Economic Studies Note:  Compares Open Access alternatives against subscription  publishing of national outputs , with costs, savings and increased returns expressed in Net Present Value over 20 years (GBP millions).   Returns are to public sector and higher education R&D spending. HE = Higher Education. IATUL Warsaw 30 May 2011
Leveraged Transition to  Gold ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],IATUL Warsaw 30 May 2011
Optimal OA Mandate ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],IATUL Warsaw 30 May 2011
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Copenhagen Sep 3 http://www.openscholarship.org

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The green and gold roads to open access

  • 1. The Green and the Gold Roads to Open Access Stevan Harnad Canada Research Chair in Cognitive Sciences UniversitĂŠ du QuĂŠbec Ă  MontrĂŠal & University of Southampton UK IATUL Warsaw 30 May 2011
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5. Refereed “Post-Print” Accepted, Certified, Published by Journal Impact cycle begins: Research is done Researchers write pre-refereeing “ Pre-Print” Submitted to Journal Pre-Print reviewed by Peer Experts – “Peer-Review” Pre-Print revised by article’s Authors Researchers can access the Post-Print if their university has a subscription to the Journal 12-18 Months IATUL Warsaw 30 May 2011 New impact cycles: New research builds on existing research
  • 6. New impact cycles: New research builds on existing research Researchers can access the Post-Print if their university has a subscription to the Journal Refereed “Post-Print” Accepted, Certified, Published by Journal Impact cycle begins: Research is done Researchers write pre-refereeing “ Pre-Print” Submitted to Journal Pre-Print reviewed by Peer Experts – “Peer-Review” Pre-Print revised by article’s Authors 12-18 Months IATUL Warsaw 30 May 2011 More impact cycles:
  • 7. There are plenty of repositories IATUL Warsaw 30 May 2011
  • 8. Percentage of OA articles by year weighted by their number of documents published in 2007
  • 9. IATUL Warsaw 30 May 2011
  • 10. Author Surveys (Alma Swan) IATUL Warsaw 30 May 2011
  • 11. But almost all of them are almost-empty of OA’s target content (5-25%) IATUL Warsaw 30 May 2011
  • 12. Open Access: How? IATUL Warsaw 30 May 2011
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15. Open Access: Why? IATUL Warsaw 30 May 2011
  • 16. IATUL Warsaw 30 May 2011
  • 17. OA citation advantage for pre-refreeing pre-prints in physics arXiv IATUL Warsaw 30 May 2011
  • 18. Earlier download metrics correlated with later citation metrics Brody, T., Harnad, S. and Carr, L. (2006) Earlier Web Usage Statistics as Predictors of Later Citation Impact. Journal of the American Association for Information Science and Technology (JASIST ) 57(8): 1060-1072. http://eprints.ecs.soton.ac.uk/10713/ Data from arXiv Downloads (“hits”) in the first 6 months correlate with citations 2 years later Most articles are not cited at all IATUL Warsaw 30 May 2011
  • 19. Average cumulative number of citations per article as a function of article age for articles published in 1998-2009
  • 20. Average cumulative number of citations per article as a function of article age by field for articles published in 2000
  • 21. Cumulative number of citations per article for Mandated and Self-Selected articles (articles published in 2002) OM N = 897 ØM N = 493 OS N = 1,098 ØS N = 3,269
  • 22. Separate proportions for OA vs NOA articles at each citation count
  • 23. Negative Binomial Regression Exp(B)-1 values of Negative Binomial Regression for the four institutions (with and without CERN/South) (* p>0.05)
  • 24. Benefit/Cost comparisons for the UK (GBP millions over 20 years and benefit/cost ratio) Centre for Strategic Economic Studies Note: Compares Open Access alternatives against subscription publishing of national outputs , with costs, savings and increased returns expressed in Net Present Value over 20 years (GBP millions). Returns are to public sector and higher education R&D spending. HE = Higher Education. IATUL Warsaw 30 May 2011
  • 25.
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 28. Copenhagen Sep 3 http://www.openscholarship.org

Editor's Notes

  1. To maximise research access, supplement the existing system: Do as before, but also: Self-archive the preprint in your university’s Eprint Archive, so every would-be user can access it. Self-archive the postprint in your university’s Eprint Archive, so every would-be user can access it. Research access is maximized and so research impact is maximized.
  2. The OA average percentage is calculated in the previous slide, by simply averaging all the fields, in other words, by weighting them all as equally important. However, the average across fields needs to be weighted by the number of papers published annually in each field, and a SCOPUS-weighted analysis (where fields are weighted by their number of documents published in 2007) is a more accurate estimate. As shown in this figure, that puts the current cross-field average for 1998-2006 at about 13% rather than 20%. And the current OA rate is probably about 15%.
  3. Multiple regression analysis. Here four metrics are tested against citation counts as the criterion.
  4. In order to explore the evolution of OA advantage over time and by field, we plot the average cumulative number of citations per article as a function of article age, by field, for articles published in 2000. These figures show for each field, the average cumulative number of citations per article for OA and non-OA articles. For fields, as an article gets older, and its cumulative citations grow, its OA advantage grows too. However, this advantage differ in magnitude depending on the field; it is relatively high for Chemistery, Clininical Medecine, Physics and Biomedical Research and is relatively weak in Mathematics, Biology, Social Science and Health.
  5. - In order to display the OA advantage in a different way and show more graphically how it is distributed across the citation ranges, we calculated the proportions of OA articles at each citation count and compared them to those for NOA articles. - This Figure shows that as the citation count increases, the fraction of the total OA articles at each citation count overtakes the corresponding fraction of the total NOA articles.