The EU project management recently moved from Brussels, Belgium to Astana, Kazakhstan. On 26 March 2018, the Team Leader, Stefan Siewert, presented to the EU delegation the current state of affairs and proposed strategic choices for project implementation. The presentation started with an analyse of Turkmenistan's embedment in a geopolitical and geostrategic context: the unfolding of the fourth industrial revolution with accelerating change that includes more investment in human capital and represents opportunities as well as structural headwinds. Mr Siewert analysed the evolutionary trajectory of education modernisation since independence and highlighted lessons learnt during first 18 months of project implementation. Recent highlights are seminars for English teachers, IT administrators of Learning Management systems, active learning methods and quality assurance in education. He proposed to use a top-down and bottom-up approach: while strengthening capacity creation with the Ministries of Education and Labour, the project intends to continue directly with the community through so-called mini-projects. The later are bottom-up ignited and ToR-compliant activities by educational institutions that are implemented with indirect and extensive support by key experts. This way, the project circumvents some formal constraints in gaining work permission In the opinion of Mr Siewert, the project is on track to achieve the given objectives. Nevertheless, significant internal and external risks of project implementation in an extremely challenging environment remain, requiring the coherent, consistent and result-oriented action of all stakeholders involved. The discussion and outcome of the presentation will influence decision making in the upcoming months.

1. Project EC “Support to the Education Sector in Turkmenistan”
One-third of project implementation: Where we are
now, where we want to go?
EU Delegation
Astana, Kazakhstan
26 March 2018
Stefan Siewert, Ph.D., MBA
Team Leader
13/04/2
018
Ỳewropa Bilelişiginin taslamasy «Türkmenistanda bilim Ulgamayna ỳardam etmek»
EU project “Support to the Education Sector in Turkmenistan”
Проект ЕС “Содействие системе образования в Туркменистане” This project is funded by
The European Union

2. Contents - what you can expect
1. Central Asia: megatrends and undercurrents
2. Turkmenistan: welfare and backwardness
3. Education modernization: evaluating
the potential for change
4. Intervention approach: lessons learnt
(Around 15 – 20 minutes)

3. 1. Central Asia: megatrends and undercurrents
1.1 Unfolding of the fourth industrial revolution
1.2 CA’s embedment in global division of labour
2. Turkmenistan: welfare and backwardness
3. Education modernization: evaluating the potential for change
4. Intervention approach: lessons learnt

4. Robots and artificial intelligence, Internet of things, driverless cars, etc.
• 40 % of existing work places will be automated. Less than 10 % of employment will be in agriculture and goods
production (while output growth accelerates))
• Investment in intangible assets (human capital, business procedures, change management) exceeds investment in
tangible assets (factories, equipment) .
• Central bank balance sheet account for over 40% of global GDP, the world’s biggest experiment in central planning
• For the first time in 5000 years: negative price of money
1.1 Unfolding of the fourth industrial revolution
• Demise of liberal world order: Liberalism
and democracy in retreat, great power
rivalry returning, rise of political
polarization and populism, decrease of
trust, social capital and coherence.
• In education: skill gaps accelerating, not
abating
Contours of a new world order and social
contract not yet on the horizon

5. Illustration

6. Turkmenistan invested in
the success factor of the
industrial era: brick and
mortar
New rules in the information age:
Intangible investment > tangible inestment

7. Globalization has winners and losers, Central Asia is
rather not on the winning side
Disadvantages include:
• 80% of trade is part of global value chains (the
world is not flat), assuming low transport and
transaction cost (co-dependency of China and the
US)
• Small, fragmented markets (often not reaching
critical threshold)
• Commercial and technical breakthroughs happen in
clusters
• Internet traffic has become more important than
trade of goods
Advantages include
• Exporter of hydrocarbons (diminishing factor)
1.2 CA’s embedment in global division of labour
US lost interest in the region, EU is present for a bundle of (good)
geopolitical and internal reasons, not because of the economic potential.

8. 1. Central Asia: megatrends and undercurrents
2. Turkmenistan: welfare and backwardness
2.1 Historic context
2.2 Selected figures
2.3 Current state of affairs (personal perception)
3. Education modernization: evaluating
the potential for change
4. Intervention approach: lessons learnt

9. Context matters for social DNA, national identity, change direction and modernization potential
• Reverse of the fortune: Merz = Silicon Valley of the Middle Age, biggest city in the world around 1200
• In 1881, Russia conquered for geostrategic reasons (Big Game competition with UK, not because of
economic value).
• Shift to hereditary lifestyle by force, no integration between urban Russian population and local tribes (two
parallel markets in the city of Ashgabat)
• In 1991, independence was not welcomed, the need of state- and nation building stretched the society to
its limit
• Urban (Russian, European) population left the country, giving way to a more rural, tribal and pre-modern
mentality (similar to Reconquista, German Jews)
• Was most backward and isolated Soviet Republic, remains fundamentally closed.
Current situation reflects more geography and embedment in global division of labour than political will and
arrangements.
2.1 Historic context

10. Snapshots of current situation
• Higher middle income country according to World
Bank classification, but low-to-medium level of
socioeconomic development
• proven gas reserves: > 4 million USD per capita
• Only one in five of the country’s employed population
earns regular wages, more than 50 % of population
live in or near subsistence
• Public subsidies exceed 30 % of GDP (best guess)
• Export revenue collapsed from 12 billion USD in 2012
to 6 billion in 2016, igniting biggest economic crisis
since 1990-ies
• There is no threat to political stability
2.2 Selected figures
Preliminary conclusion
Limited potential for departing
current trajectory and moving up
the global hacking order,
continuation of a path of highly
selective modernization
of the society

11. • At all levels of society: low education levels, apolitical
attitudes, absence of support for potential reforms
from within government ranks, lack of self-
organization (Time wrap to Soviet Union during
the1960-ies)
• International business community is leaving
• Survival is paramount, hope is for increase in export
revenue from investment projects (TAPI, gas
proceeding) in some years
Golden Era is gone (income exceeded spending capacities)
• Overwhelming investment in physical infrastructure:
250 factories have been build, but there is almost no
value creation
• Sensitivity for investment in human capital is
increasing (not sure whether it will reach a threshold)
• The task: how to exploit the capacity for change
according to the project’s ToR
2.3 Current state of affairs (personal perception)

12. 1. Central Asia: megatrends and undercurrents
2. Turkmenistan: welfare and backwardness
3. Education modernization: evaluating the potential for change
3.1 Modernization trajectory since 2008
3.2 Capacities and mental sets
3.3 Two national concepts
4. Intervention approach: lessons learnt

13. • After the near collapse of the inherited
industrial era education system,
President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov
initiated pivot to investment in physical
infrastructure
• Achievements:
– Generally secondary schooling
raised from 10 to 12 years
– Academy of Science and other
institutions reopened
– Investment in equipment (dozen of
millions annually)
– Setting-up higher education
institutes
Modernization capacities are
stretched to the limit within the
given parameters
3.1 Modernization trajectory since 2008

14. Mental sets:
• Management paradigm of the Soviet Union from
the 1960-ies
• Highly centralized and personalised decision-
making
• Lack of confidence, experience, skills, and
abilities
Capacities:
• Only 20 % of each age cohort can continue
education after school
• University capacity is 65 students per 10,000
residents (as compared to 117 students in 1989)
• Demand for higher education outstrips supply,
igniting corruption, up to 50.000 USD
• The flagship in Higher Education, the English-
speaking Humanitarian University, has limited
autonomy
• Almost no capacities for further education of
teachers
• Ministry of Education lacks basic manpower (16
store building with 64 employees: no functioning
department on Higher education, understaffed
department in vocational education,
international relation, and more.
3.2 Capacities and mental sets

15. 1. Central Asia: megatrends and undercurrents
2. Turkmenistan: welfare and backwardness
3. Education modernization: evaluating the potential for change
4. Intervention approach: lessons learnt
4.1 Overview
4.2 Two national concepts
4.3 Current activities
4.4 Planned intervention approach
4.5 Lessons learnt
4.6 Emerging intervention approach
4.7 Proposed changes

16. Purpose: to contribute to the ongoing reform
process by facilitating the introduction of
educational standards and adapting professional
education programmes to labour market needs
Project Duration: 48 months, from October 2016
to September 2020
Project Objectives:
• To prepare a midterm strategy on education
and training system
To review the content of education and
training programs with a focus on the skills
and knowledge and competences required in
a modern society and economy
• To strengthen the quality of education by
upgrading of knowledge and skills of staff of
education and training establishments
including managers, teachers and trainers
• To support development of quality assurance
approach addressing the main issues of
quality at all levels of the education system.
4.1 Overview of the ToR

17. 4.2 Two concepts
On ICT (September 2017) and foreign language (December 2017)

18. • 200 hours for Administrators of the
Learning Management System (LMS)
“Moodle”
– Supports the deployment of
LMS at all higher education and
selected pilot schools
– Access to the community
– Low skills level, but high
commitment, discipline and
participation
• Functional analysis of the
International University of
Development and Humanities
• Further education of Language
Courses (series of 4 seminars)
• Workshops on the Bologna process
and quality in education
• Operative management of final phase
of seven mini-projects
– Textbook writing (National
institute of Education), teaching
material development and
further education of teachers
(Textile, construction, tourism
and agriculture colleges, School
Nr. 29 and 60)
4.3 Current activities

19. Planning:
An optimized portfolio of ToR-related activities
• Planned and facilitated together with the Ministry of Education,
Ministry of Labour and main stakeholders
• Implemented by Key experts, supported by Non-Key Junior and
Non-Key Senior experts
• Hands-on consultancy in schools, TVET institution, and universities
• Seminars, workshops and roundtables according to needs
Reality:
The Cabinet of Ministers gave the task to the Ministry and the project,
But no permission to meet public employees
But verbal notes are required for even basic issues
There is no guarantee of success
No use of E-mail or basic understanding of project management
No interest and no capacities to deal with the task, when not given by
above. Extreme examples include: “Why should we help you to earn
money”, “All foreigners are enemies”. “This is our country, if you do not
comply with our wishes and customs, we will not cooperate at all”
4.4 Planned intervention approach

20. Huge capacities to deal with the bureaucracy
– More than 120 verbal notes and letters
– 17 page work plan, with 7 major updates
– Additionally to Steering committee, ToR,
involvement of the Ministry in any activity.
Limited results: Work plan 2017 was approved in October
2017. Still, verbal notes are required for meetings and
seminars. In some cases, permission was not granted.
Creating a trust relationship with decision-makers
(Deputy Minister of Education, Director NIET)
• Daily communication
• Slowly, but surely improvement of relationships
• A more professional and result-oriented dialogue is
emerging
The project is on the right track. There are no
major constrains to achieve the objectives, given
in the Terms of Reference
4.5 Lessons learnt

21. • Complementary to the planned intervention approach: top-
down planning with the Ministries, NIET and other
stakeholders
• Facilitating ToR-compliant, bottom-generated activities that
are implemented by the community with the consultancy of
Key and Non-Key experts. In this case, there is no need for
formal permission when working together.
• Current intention:
– 7 mini-projects are in their final stage
– 10 new are planned
– Up to 30 until the end of the project
– Working towards the ToR is embedded in these
activities.
Conclusion:
A combination from top-down planned activities
and bottom-up generated activities, facilitated by
Key experts.
4.6 Emerging intervention approach (proposed solution)
21

22. • To decrease the number of work-days for Key expert.
• To increase the number of work-days for Non-Key Senior experts.
• To increase the number of work-days for Non-Key Junior.
4.7 Proposed change

23. We value your
opinion and
feedback
Thanks for
your
attention
The project
team
WWW.education-turkmenistan.eu