The Inevitability of Autonomous Machines - How we get there from here

1. The Inevitability of Autonomous Machines:
How we get there from here
James McQuivey, Ph.D.
Vice President, Principal Analyst
1 October 2015

2. Isn’t adoption hard?Wait a minute

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If autonomous machines are so
inevitable…
…why are we so afraid of them.

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Source: ___
Even Machiavelli knew this
difficult
perilous
uncertain
Machiavelli, The Prince
“…a new order of things…”

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True: People resist a new order of things,
even when it is awesome.

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Source: Source: James L. McQuivey, “How To Predict What Consumers Will Do Or Buy,” Forrester Research, Inc., July 6, 2001.
Source: “Brief: Privacy Concerns Will Shape, Not Stop, Google Glass Adoption” Forrester report.
“Never”
going online
30%
50%
Concerned about
Google Glass
Want it
anyway
45%

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Source: ___
The brain has no choice

9. We evolved under this kind of pressure

10. Today we still face costs, tradeoffs, and losses

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This is called loss aversion and it’s real
But digital disruption reduces loss

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Old business Digital disruption
Digital disruption lets you reduce the cost
of awesome

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Reduce the risk of new behaviors, and
people will adopt them more quickly

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26%

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900m

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For now, hyperadoption exists at a low
level, close to the individual product
Autonomous machines kick in as
hyperadoption goes sytem-wide

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Today, we wonder if people will buy…

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The steps to autonomous machines are
not about products, they’re about systems
Sensors Robotics
Intelligent
systems
Ecosystems

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The steps to autonomous machines are
not about products, they’re about systems
Sensors
“sense”
Robotics
“act”
Intelligent
systems
“think”
Ecosystems
“connect”

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Consumer actions today, make this
possible tomorrow

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Whoever owns the ecosystem, will make
autonomous machines commonplace

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And people will love it

24. forrester.com
Thank you
James McQuivey, Ph.D.
VP, Principal Analyst