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Design2Disrupt Summit: John Hogan - The New Epoch of Computing

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Design2Disrupt Summit: John Hogan - The New Epoch of Computing

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Design2Disrupt Summit: John Hogan - The New Epoch of Computing

  1. 1. © Intemational Business Machines Corporation, 2014 _
  2. 2. Agenda 2.What does Watson do? 3.Why is this hard for a computer? fie 1.Why the world needs Watson < T 4.Taking Watson to the marketplace 5.I want to be a Watson developer. .. © International Business Machines Corporation, 2014
  3. 3. I A _ ‘V. i, ,'. _ © lnternatioynal Business Ma<; hj; Ie; ‘E'3>moratioflI201 4,; '-_'_ -
  4. 4. I . NHHIX Transforming how we no the world in revenue last quarter Transforming how we consume media V, ' t. , l. i Ii , _ r. ,. . . ,. .t ; - I ; , ‘. ‘jr ,2‘ it. ‘ iv i: i 1. .3 . H. .‘ '- - 7‘ ‘. '« :1 subscribers Inter-iiationalBu. " : ' . 'a’ii#.
  5. 5. The volume, variety, velocity and veracity of data is creating an unprecedented opportunity. gigabytes of new data are generated every day, 4/5ths of which is unstructured. © International Business Machines Corporation. 2014 I . ', ~' . ~~_, . . . - il. i_"’, . -. . . I . '; 6 g , ‘ ‘-1 , t : ' * ' I 2‘ , ivy . . Y - . t »‘« ~‘« " _, 1 (S I ’ ' " 71’. ' . ’ .14‘ 1 ’, -it ' ‘ . '~r~’~ I I g . . . . by ' _i I ~/ . , V .1 - ~5 ' '35 I I A; ’i‘‘- - ill‘ ‘ I, I. ..
  6. 6. © International Business Machines Corporation. 2014 This proliferation of data is driving , :. demand for real-time insights and = / / / ’ I I evidence-based / / ’ ’ ’ decision making. ’ / / / I / / am E . CEOs report not having the information they need when making critical decisions Hill! “ | |:ii: l| ii. .., ii “nil”
  7. 7. Advances in natural language processing and machine learning are enabling us to transform expertise and professionals. 1 2°/ o Most firms estimate that they only analyze 12% of the data they already have, leaving 88% on the cutting room floor. (13) International Business Machines Cor oration. 2014
  8. 8. © International Business _ iiion. 2014
  9. 9. Watson is ushering in a new era of computing . I _ . “. _r $12-’ : r. 1900 1950 2011 Tabulating Systems Programmable Era Cognitive Era © International Business Machines Corporation. 2014 'llII III“
  10. 10. Watson is creating a new partnership between people and computers that ~ ~ ~and- as -human expertise.
  11. 11. — __- ennui ‘ml Every day, our brains process incredible amounts of information without us even realizing we’re doing it. Watson aids the human cognitive process by reading and storing all public and proprietary knowledge across professions. and making insights contained within instantly available. Interpret Evaluate © International Business Machines Corporation. 2014
  12. 12. IA . _, ;.. i if «— I We interpret the data available to us to make connections and frame our choices Watson supports this process by interpreting explicit and implicit relationships and visualizing unexpected patterns within data © International Business Machines Corporation. 2014 Evaluate Interpret 12
  13. 13. 13 ~ w 1 a as 4 I I — We evaluate connections across knowledge and data to . Observe draw conclusions and develop our opinions Watson supports this Decide Interpret process by testing options against all available evidence. without Evaluate assumption or bias © International Business Machines Corporation. 2014
  14. 14. Decide We make decisions based on experience, new evidence, and the integrity of evaluation that we've done. Watson puts content into context, pairing confidence- weighted responses with supporting evidence and allowing professionals to make informed decisions at the point of impact. © International Business Machines Corporation. 2014 Observe Decide ' Interpret Evaluate [| Iui| | IIIIIIII ll iii 14
  15. 15. 15 _ BL. -as Machi s Ct '; i Inlet
  16. 16. It is Hard For Computers to Understand Welch ran L. Gerstner this? J. Welch VV. KJBIGS © International Business Machines Corporation. 2014 Humans % lBl/ l GE lV| lCl'OSOlI “lf leadership is an an‘ then surely Jack Welch has proved himself a master painter during his tenure at GE. ” 16
  17. 17. It is Hard For Computers to Understand Humans E I B lvl “lf leadership is an art then surely Jack Welch has proved himself a master painter during his tenure at GE. ” Welch ran this? L. Gerstner J. Welch GE VV. KJEIIGS lVllCl'OSOlI - Noses that run and feet that smell? - How can a house can burn up as it burns down? - Does CPD represent a complex comorbidity of lung cancer? - What mix of zero—coupon, non—callab| e, A+ munis fit my risk portfolio? © International Business Machines Corporation. 2014 17
  18. 18. Ask Google How Smart it is? I Are You Smarte t n a 5th Grader’? U. S. game show ' ‘ " " ' ader I - i‘ 7. - ‘ , uS'Ii.1l1("l'i.1'1.1 fylh Grad: -r taarn-L. I‘, -- vs L'. K!r- u Smarter Than a 5th Grader? - Wikipedia, the free ~ Are You Smarter Tl'ian_a_5th Grader . ' : Are You Sl“FIfTI"' T". .1l‘. .1 Sin Grant: -r. ' Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader Full episode, - YouTube AFWW youI. .be stir". w: ;lr"". ' i Are You Sl‘iV.1’(CI' Than .1 Images for are you smarter than a 5th grader? More images for are you smarter than a 5th grader? it International Business Machines Corporation. 2014 18 Ask Watson How Smart He Is? / 0000 1-‘ 945 AM 'CC“s - IBMWATSON. — §(w4>-(fiery Watson s trained much the way a rmman is taught it learns from historical ouestior‘ and answer pairs to Lroerszmd how q. estions are asked and how the answers can be irooverea in the evxdenoe Watson then uses soohistcateo rnachne learning algorithms to ‘gel smarter‘ over time 00 O ABK
  19. 19. 19 ‘ . . It 3 ' ° . . ’ ’ ‘* T I I ' 1'” “' 1‘ . I ' . «I ‘J . . _. «I cl’ ml A . d Learned Models 1‘: '>: , - help combine and ‘“ ; __. .i . "‘—. weigh the Evidence >51‘? as E . d g g ‘ V Answer ’ Mode| S/ M935 . Sources . Deep Inquiry , _, _, _ Answer I EV'd_e”°e _, Evidence Models Models I Scofing Retrieval Scoring " ‘ ‘ Primary Candidate Models Models Search —>Answer Generation i ‘/ Inquiry/ Topic Hypothesis Hypothesis and Evidence S mhesis Final Confidence Analysis Generation Scoring Y Merging & Ranking Hypothesis Hypothesis and Evidence T Generation Scoring © international Business Machines Corporation‘ 2014 Responses with Confidence
  20. 20. 20 How Watson works: DeepQA architecture A. ,“ 4.. .v' . .., Learned Models ‘*4-,4 ‘ ; -xi ; ‘: -/' S‘: ~-—. — . Li; ',€‘i"ii'""‘-""‘ ____, _) 1 t 1 Evidence ‘)2 ‘ i com me A l ’-/ -‘ ‘ 1oo, ooo’ s oiséflres , , W 1000’ s of from many deep 4 . $0‘ pieces of analysis algorithms _ mo’ 3 gf possible evidence sources 8nSWe. |’$ Multiple interpretations of a question H‘y'_DO'. llCSlS Hypothesis anc: Ev dense G()llt? l(1iE()| ‘- Sr: oiii‘_£l H‘ §**’"”' 1 " © International Business Machines Corporation, 2014
  21. 21. Watson leverages multiple algorithms to gather deeper evidence Question In May 1898 Portugal celebrated the 400th anniversary of this explorer’s arrival in India. 400th anniversary explorer © International Business Machines Corporation. 2014
  22. 22. 22 THIS IS NOT HOW WATSON WORKS: Keyword Matching Question Possible evidence In May 1898 Portugal celebrated the In May, Gary arrived in India L d 400th anniversary of this explorer’s after he celebrated his age" arrival in India. anniversary in Portugal Keyword ‘Hit’ arrived in Reference Text celebrated celebrated Answer This evidence a"”"’°’5a'V suggests “Gary” is the answer BUT the system must / earn arrival in that keyword matching may be weak relative to other types of °"P'°'°' evidence © International Business Machines Corporation‘ 2014
  23. 23. Watson leverages multiple algorithms to 23 gather deeper evidence Question In May 1898 Portugal celebrated the 400th anniversary of this explorer’s arrival in India. celebrated 400th anniversary explorer © International Business Machines Corporation. 2014 Possible evidence On the 27th of May 1498, Vasco da Gama landed in Kappad Beach landed in '27th May 1498 Kappad Beach Legend Temporal Reasoning Statistical Paraphrasing GeoSpatial Reasoning Reference Text Answer Stronger evidence can be much harder to find and score. .. . Search tar and wide . Explore many hypotheses - Judge evidence . Many inference algorithms . ..and the evidence is still not 100% certain
  24. 24. Cognitive computing is changing 24 the game 1 Understands Generates and natural language evamates T ‘ evidence-based hypothesis Adapts and learns from training, interaction, and outcomes © International Business Machines Corporation, 2014
  25. 25. ‘ '— 3; | :'. ::-3 lttltumu ll” H 2 I’ . : -'-3?? I ' | is Iii. ..-. .i‘_ii. §ff'ffllllli ' — . » ‘. '.'-. ‘.. "’»: ii; ‘r-""“. ;‘i I I I; "~‘ ‘ - . 'l« I . * © lntemational Business Machines Corpoiatioii, 2014 . - ,
  26. 26. 26 Bringing Watson to market Transforming industries Advancing cognitive Bringing the cognitive and professions with computing across the experience to market services-led enterprise with through an ecosystem engagements. repeatable solutions. of partners. ii--ii | l:ll: l| HIHIII “NH” © International Business Machines Corporation. 2014
  27. 27. Cognitive 201 1 2013 - Single user system - 1000s of users - 2 - 3 sentence - 20 page questions questions - 2 - 3 word answers - 5+ days to retrain - Wikipedia, general corpus -< 1 day to retrain - Medical corpus © lntemational Business Machines Corporation, 2014 27 Open Cognitive Platform Cognitive Ecosystem 2014 2015 - Millions of users - Thousands of business - Conversational dialog Partners . Few hours to retrain - 50+ cognitive services - Broad industry corpus ' MU'ti'“"9UaI . 3 cognitive services - Scalable cloud platform - Watson cloud service ' Taught 31 100+ . Taught at 10 universities universities
  28. 28. ,. r'r its-firm 28 (til I ,2‘ ‘L; (I) . J. g III Transform Customer - For brands and their consumers - Simple to use - Support answers with 3"'l. ‘Alscil evidence - Dialog with person , bums context . IBM Customers have been Enterprises B2B2C, B2B2E Personalization of interaction . Call Center Assist, Self Help, eCommerce © International Business Machines Corporation. 2014
  29. 29. «w international Business Machines Corporation. 2014 29 Accelerate Research and Insights Test hypotheses Find Evidence Discover New Facts At Scale . Law Enforcement, Pharma . Law, Education, Material Discovery B A Y L O R bon appétit
  30. 30. Iv» international Business Machines Corporation. 201:1 30 Improve _ -1 1 _. .. unm- Decisions and ~ —- -- un ~(R2.w u’-vocl”/ "V I .12. outcomes . v. ..-n. a.. .. : .:p—. u-1-so-u---u——-o-u-p—-o-on-— -an-—>¢——¢-no--u-' Practio ners - Let practitioners consul with an expert - Support a differential diagnosis - Reason through possible actions - Evidence-based decisions . Primary Focus has been chronic disease , Oncology , Treatment support, not pure diagnosis . , MSK expertise codified via case studies
  31. 31. Validate adherence . .__ , to policy guidelines J 9”‘ ll" _. 2 I I Providers, Payers & Regulators ‘E v m . .é_--*~ fix’. ‘fin - Determine if: - Policy adhered to - Policy violated - More data needed " -safivvyarqrxsnruzu-par. f _ E . Clinical Trial Matching , 170,000 active clinical trials world wide , Does a patient qualify for one? rt Should an Insurance Company pay out? 69 Is there a potential issue with a medicati_on? © International Business Machines Corporation. 2014
  32. 32. 32 j¢n’Ciiw. wl7 Hulyris hie / R I §| ("‘tPj; y I. 'L"tMC§3‘. . - 6 V‘ ” -1 ll‘1'/ I dleveslwo per . 1 5 4M"PV‘/ ’}‘C4:zr Z3 ’ my/ J,-TE . 'l"x / ""0 _ _ '~ _ . V ‘ 2 x ‘V / / 4?’ (M $ l
  33. 33. 33 . V E. . _ . ., i. . *1 I9 ‘I’ _ul‘ ' “ ' '' ~". ': " W 1*“ C ’ ‘im*c' “"" ’— *- '* *~ A7‘ in ‘sc- .2 i». .. . u. .i‘uu. .b -1‘. J. I'i . L . .J _ae. aI. y.. _‘J-‘lIL‘J . 3 of 50+ Watson Ecosystem Partners . Built Applications Using Watson Services Platform Idea: . Idea: ’ . . / me/ /ig€(7‘M r eted Create meuftimate to To Create Fan_g. a iiga/ th Isatz; /mvon byde’lV9”"9 Watsons floofi plush compa”’0"' 7 mized a”5We'Sr m ical condlflonsan W deve/ op. I/ VOUQ interactions. Train and support Children talk to then Deliver personalized ‘ ‘ sellers in real time by This one talks back, healthcare understanding products teaching and observing recommendations to me and customers I http: //www-03.ibm. com/ innovation/ us/ watson/ getting_started. shtm| © International Business Machines Corporation. 2014
  34. 34. Watson Services Platform IBM Watson Solutions Financial Services Public Sector Other IBM Watson Products E~we~i»eeiii IBM Watson Platform (built on B| ueMix ~ IBM Cloud Foundry) Omell“. . Cogmive Perceiving Reasoning I SPeC'<3"Zat'0“ Semces Gaining Inferring new Personalizing insight into conclusions individual our world nteractions / iii‘(ilft? O': ’3 Learning improving insight with experience Reqiiiieiiieiits Prioiitizatioii Piepaiatioii ) International Business Machines Cor oration 2014
  35. 35. 5-. « Welcome Services Oil! ‘ ' )i‘Ar1-, ,-. >-r tI- vi | ‘.’0ri-I mi V J I . ’ : ' on R-~'i-:1.-iirig l. 'l-- ‘ I ii- ‘-‘. i ’)l‘til‘( -- Animt : ‘ av M i. ,l‘ 'w- Ti Nit)! ‘ Try Watson Get Started on Bluamix _ , 35 ‘H : fire it F‘; -(‘fa <: «i -i , . us an KI si ‘s! In» _«- 7.; n « . ‘:1 I w A. 1”» :1 A I‘ i 4: 0} tr, 3 sf I . - sf L -44' ; ; Welcome to “ < ° _ Vviih Vl. lat: ;oi1 survicw ‘Ou can bt. ’<l your own cotiiiitmz app fion W| ll‘OL. l nr; (1 '10 to bt. l: l dc-cl) natural laiigiingc. maci‘ no lcilrl‘ ng and 1(llkll‘£_] afgorittiiiis or other core- '. L‘ClillOlO(}ySk ; » Jump in & explore! / ‘ “Together we’ll do things genera’-'ons before couldn P am 0 . ” am (6) International Business Machines Corporation. 2014
  36. 36. Questions can be asked in either English or Spanish English questions are answered in English Spanish questions are answered bi/ ingua/ /y Better or worse answers to a question can be browsed Welcome to the Polylingual QA Service Powered by Watson4|T get .1 oeixcr rsn-er qei . "oI'I<r .1 laser Ouesuon lntcriiatioiial Business lv1ElClllllOS CO"DOl‘fliIOli. 2014 lhere I can find the permanent license server DB2 LUI (0.38) If you received installation media such as a CD or DVD, a permanent DB2 LUW license may be included with the installation media if you downloaded the image from the web, a permanent license can be downloaded from Passport Advantage. As. v-. ir«. o-I donde puedo encontrar la licencia permanente de servidor D82 LUI Si ha recibido el soporte de instalacion como un CD 0 DVD, una licencia DB2 LUW permanente pucde ser que se incluye con el soporte de instalacion si ha descargado la inogen de la web, una licencia pernanente puede ser descargado desde Passport Advantage. n [mi gr : 36
  37. 37. Application Fragment: Polylingual Question and Answer for IT (Written in Ruby Sinatra) # # EXTRACT THE ANSWERS FROM A WATSON QUERY # watsonQuery = JSON. parse(. ..)["question"] answers = watsonQuery["evidencelist"] answer = answers[@answer| ndex] @answerConfidence = answer[“vaIue”] @answerText = answer[“text”] @answerVa| ue = answer[“vaIue”] © International Business Machines Corporation. 2014 “NH” | |:ii: || Hit 37 llll “rill”
  38. 38. Application Statistics: Polylingual Question and Answer For IT AnswerPage. ham| : 36 lines QueryPage. ham| : 20 lines AskWatsonQuestionslnLotsaLanguages. rb 180 lines © International Business Machines Corporation, 2014 38
  39. 39. Tool set for Watson Question and Answer Service Welcome © International Business Machines Corporation. 2014 39
  40. 40. _ rrvy: JlJ¢'mx -nu ~ moon mum 3|. |!Vo'm um Q '2 Muu my (rt: cur. -iq suvuu Appie iC| uuK1 f, hnztbooh Yvnnllu-1 w K-D1'($. l mmm News vopuuv a (‘V we point! mu . . . r‘-H‘ Cement Store Community/ Feedback . ; . , Welcome to The Quest on Answer service accepts quest ons arid reirieves answers from w it‘ rt a corpus. Output includes a ‘ st 01 cand date passages, cont dance sco'es. a'1d‘nksto support ng evidence. The curre"! corous uses Watson for IT, wt‘ ch draws from documents on iB. A produczs. Watch how Watson interacts with natural language —-—_m. —_ j — 3" ——_. —7;~.
  41. 41. Watson ServicesPIatform: on and Answer Service Documentation 4 . mybluewlix vie-. - red an-. Q E - Q Mnnviuna v contain sumo Q Apple C 50006 2‘ Fxohooi Yuntiu winipeau vaihooi unis v lbpulzl ~ In uuy. nio pour nun - | BMKi'IQJGUGI%IW8SHW® Getting started with the Question Answer service The IBM ‘i/ .'atso""’ Ocnstioii Ariswnr (OA) service provicns an API ro‘nrrnC to as tro OAAPI that erahles you to arm the power ol the IBIV Watson cogritlve computing system to your appl cation. With this sew ce, you can connect to Watson post questions are 'eceive responses that you can use in your ap: >I catch Applications that use the O/ service use a corpus o‘ i"’orrriation that provices ccmair knowledge based on a specific set o‘ input documents are other in'orrnatior The ce‘ault corpus is Watson for IT which cerives COg"| t|V0 C0l‘C| t.Sl0t‘S Pom docurrevts about IBM procucts You can use the OA service Porn a variety of runtirrie £3fiViVOI"l'TlCI‘lS such as a servtet ir a Java wet) server‘ a Noce is aaplicatior or a Ruby app icatior ir the Sinatra or Rai 5; nrtimes The example code in subsecuert sections at this t: oCi. mor‘t shows how to no this and Car‘ provide a start “Q DOV‘! tor your own ex; )r. -rimc"tmior‘ To see a quick ceiiic oi’ the Question Ar‘5wcr srzrvicc in action r: i;r, k SO'V1f! sarnplr; questiors that YOJ may want to use to soothe power o’ the Question Answer SO'’ICO with its ce‘alt crypus are How do I install Lotus Notes How to I chart e my Notes password What is Srnan loud Contro Desk What operating systems are supported by Pertormance Manager How do I install ti. yattachrnerits What s the best way to manage my Notes mail We i. -iaarit to hear lrorr you‘ Please provide feedback or ask questioi-5 about Question Answer in the Tne API cocurnectation can be ‘curd
  42. 42. 42 Watson Goes to University (Teaching Watson) . 10 Universities in 2014, 100+ in 2015 . Analogous to a familar senior undergraduate course . “build an O/ S, Compiler, or Data Management System . Content, Training, Testing, Mobile Application Development, Business plan . lnter—collegiate competition at conclusion: . The top 3 individuals/ teams from each school compete . Grand prize of $100,000 in startup seed money . Access to Watson, and support form IBM in getting to market http: //www. ibm. com/ smarterplanet/ us/ en/ ibmwatson/ academic. html © International Business Machines Corporation. 2014
  43. 43. 43 K I {I i , ) . . / ‘ ‘ ‘ 4 x, .__ ' / ‘ I I 1 ‘I I 2/ _I i ' 1. I _~ - ' I‘. I _ . 3 ‘ S . > 1 © international Business Machines Cofiaoraxion. 2014 , A _ " 43,, ‘ _, /7"

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