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For Swimming Pool Equipment's
Company: ABC Corp.
Action: Long
Current Price: $60.24
Target Price: $80.32 (33% upside)
STOCK PITCH
Heaters, Pumps,
Filters, Accessories
Other
Lighting, Electrical &
Plumbing
Parts
Maintenance &
Equipment
Pool
Construction
Materials
Chemicals
12%
13%
16%
19%
22%
10%
8%
US Pool Sales Breakdown
About the Company
2
Value Chain
2,300Industry
Vendor
(Suppliers)
› Major influence on customer product solution
› Product training
› Local service
› Product promotions
› Supply chain management
› Inventory management
› EPA certification
ABCCORP
› Product availability
› Credit
› Sakes/marketing programs
› Business training
› Technical support
› Warranty service
› Specialty Tools
› Value oriented O/S sales force
82,000Dealers
This graph/chart is linked to excel, and changes automatically based on data. Just left click on it and select “Edit Data”.
6%
10%
84%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
ABC’s Business Segments
US Pool Products
International Pool Products
Landscape/ irrigation
Expense Type Types of Products Sold
Non – Discretionary Parts, Pumps, Filters, Hearers, Lights
Non – Discretionary Pool Equipment & Components
Some Discretionary Cleaners, Chemicals & other Maintenance items
Discretionary
Pool Equipment & Components; Concrete, Plumbing &
Electrical Components
About the Company (contd..)
3
12%
29%
27%
32%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Sales Breakdown
Minor Service &
Repair
Replacement &
Refurbishment
Specialty Retail
Pool Construction
While Pool Construction is only 12% of sales, as the installed pool base increases growth in construction will grow non-discretionary cash flows
This graph/chart is linked to excel, and changes automatically based on data. Just left click on it and select “Edit Data”.
Industry Overview
4
230
85
55
55
0
50
100
150
200
250
ABC CORP Top 52 Competitors Combind
# of Sales Center
Distributors 1 - 5 center
Distributors 6 - 10 center
Distributors with 10+ Centers
ABC is larger than the top 52
competitors combined
This graph/chart is linked to excel, and changes automatically based on data. Just left click on it and select “Edit Data”.
Rebounding housing starts will provide a tailwind for Pool Construction
Thesis: Pent-Up Demand
5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
Housing Starts vs. In ground Pool Construction
Inground Pool Sales (right Axis) Housing Starts (Left Axis)
This graph/chart is linked to excel, and changes automatically based on data. Just left click on it and select “Edit Data”.
Thesis: Migration Trends
6
Diversified Market
› California
› Florida
› Texas
› The South
› Southwest
Non-Seasonal Markets
› Mid Atlantic
› Mid West
› Northeast
› Northwest
Seasonal Markets
South
Northwest
Mid Atlantic
Midwest
Midwest
Arizona
Texas
FL
CA
Nevada
Rocky Mountain
Text Here
Text Here
ABC’s sales are focused in California, Florida, Texas and the South
This graph/chart is linked to excel, and changes automatically based on data. Just left click on it and select “Edit Data”.
70
30
20
10
8
9
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
1
Thesis: Weather
7
85
72
108
80
75
89
77
77
48
59
75
59
25
36
37
35
33
21
26
23
18
32
25
29 49
32
36
104
20
22 43
40
70
78
83
90
48
68
106
103
98
100
95
106
88
99
State-wide Temperature Ranks
January December 2017 State-wide Ranks
National Climatic Data Centre/ NESDIS/NOAA
Record
Coldest
Much
Below
Normal
Below
Normal
Near
Normal
Above
Normal
Much
Above
Normal
Record
Warmest
1 = Coldest
119 = Warmest
Temperature
Impacts on ABC Corp
In seasonal areas, weather has large impact on
pool use and pool construction to a lesser extent
Over the last two years, in many states the
temperature has been below historical norms
The weather has negatively impacted industry growth the last two years
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Thesis: Advantages Over Competitors
8
ABC has had higher profitability ratios and margins
17.4%
12.2%
10.3%
9.5%
5.9% 5.9%
5.1%
3.3%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
ABC Corp Comp 1 Comp 2 Comp 3 Comp 4 Comp 5 Comp 6 Comp 7
Return on Invested Capital
36.7%
15.4% 15.0% 14.9% 14.7% 13.3%
7.5%
5.1%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
ABC Corp Comp 3 Comp 7 Comp 2 Comp 1 Comp 5 Comp 4 Comp 6
Return on Equity
12.4%
9.1%
7.7%
6.4%
4.7%
3.9%
2.8% 2.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
ABC Corp Comp 1 Comp 3 Comp 2 Comp 5 Comp 4 Comp 6 Comp 7
Return on Assets
14.6%
12.8%
9.4% 8.9% 8.5% 8.2%
7.0%
5.4%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Comp 5 Comp 3 ABC Corp Comp 1 Comp 2 Comp 7 Comp 4 Comp 6
EBITA Margins
This graph/chart is linked to excel, and changes automatically based on data. Just left click on it and select “Edit Data”.
0%
6% 5%
10%
12%8%
25%
28%
30%
31%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18
Return on Equity
Comp Avg ABC
0%
5%
6%
7%
8%7%
8% 8%
9%
9%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18
EBITDA Margins
Comp Avg ABC
Thesis: Advantages Over Competitors (contd..)
9
0%
5% 4%
8%
9%
4%
13% 14%
16% 19%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18
Return on Invested Capital
Comp Avg ABC
0% 4% 5% 5%
6%
3%
8%
10%
11%
19%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18
Return on Assets
Comp Avg ABC
This graph/chart is linked to excel, and changes automatically based on data. Just left click on it and select “Edit Data”.
Thesis: Advantages Over Competitors (contd..)
10
100 120
100
170
220
250
100
98
140
200
240
250
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Oct - 13 Oct - 14 Oct - 15 Oct - 16 Oct - 17 Oct - 18
Five Year Total Shareholder Return Index
Comp Avg ABC
In Line In Line
Name Market Cap EV Div Yield 1yr Sales Gr ROA ROE ROIC P/E EV/ EBITDA
ABC 2,582.1 2,964.5 1.26% 8.1% 12.4% 36.7% 17.4% 24.98x 14.93x
Comp Average 3,842.4 5,348.9 0.59% 13.7% 5.3% 12.3% 7.4% 24.15x 18.07x
Comp Median 2,020.3 3,812.8 0.45% 6.7% 4.7% 14.7% 5.9% 23.56x 13.72x
Comp 4 1,408.4 1,697.4 0.00% 6.0% 3.9% 7.5% 5.9% 25.04x 12.58x
Comp 3 8,782.0 10435.4 0.00% 32.4% 7.7% 15.4%% 9.5% 23.56x 13.58x
Comp 2 3,555.7 4,179.3 1.20% 6.1% 6.4% 14.9% 10.3% 26.09x 13.72x
Comp 7 1,563.5 3,812.8 0.57% 2.7% 2.7% 15.0% 3.3% 17.03x 27.52x
Comp 6 478.2 567.4 0.00% 2.8% 2.8% 5.1% 5.1% 40.94x 31.96x
Comp 5 9,089.1 14,457.8 0.45% 4.7% 4.7% 13.3% 5.9% 18.55x 15.91x
Comp 1 2,020.3 2,292.5 1.89% 9.1% 9.1% 14.7% 12.2% 17.86x 11.21x
This graph/chart is linked to excel, and changes automatically based on data. Just left click on it and select “Edit Data”.
Thesis: Advantages Over Competitors (contd..)
11
Total
Cylical/ Pool
Construction
Annunity/ Pool
Maintenance
2019E EBITA ($MM) $225.60 90.24 135.36
EV/ EBITDA 16.00x 13.00x
EV $3,203.52 $1,443.84 $1,759.68
Less: Debt -391.10 - -
Plus: Cash 14.46 - -
Equity Value 2826.88 - -
Diluted Sh. out 47.53 - -
Implied P/ sh 60.26 - -
Current Price 60.24 - -
Implied Upside $0.02 (3bps!) - -
Based on market estimates, ABC seems to be fairly valued
This graph/chart is linked to excel, and changes automatically based on data. Just left click on it and select “Edit Data”.
Thesis: Revenue Model
12
1600 1700
1300
1500
1600
1800
1600
1500
1700
1800
1400 1500
1200
1400
1500
1800
1500 1500 1600
1800
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Estimated Revenue
Actual Estimated
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Estimated Segment
Revenue from Installied Base New Construction
ABC does not break out their sales by segment
To estimate segment specific growth, we created a
regression model with two industry variables
› Industry Pool Construction
› Installed Pool Base
This model fits well and was intuitive, which gave us
confidence in modeling these segments going forward
This graph/chart is linked to excel, and changes automatically based on data. Just left click on it and select “Edit Data”.
Thesis: Revenue Model (contd..)
13
Scenario Key Assumptions
All Scenarios
› Gross margin of 29%, inline with recent cycle averages
› Improvement to seasonal markets growth in 2019 due to weather (assumed average)
Baseline
› Housing starts & resulting pool growth on a conservative trend
› Installed pools grow at 3% after starts hit 30 year average in 2027
Bull
› Pent up demand causes acceleration of housing rebound
› Starts grows 16% until hitting 30 year average in 2020
› Installed pools grow at 5% thereafter
Bear
› Housing starts & resulting pool growth flat
› Assumed margins fall to 10 year low
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Housing Start Projections
Bull
Base
Bear
30 Yr Average
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Installed Pool Base Market
Bear
Base
Bull
This graph/chart is linked to excel, and changes automatically based on data. Just left click on it and select “Edit Data”.
MM 000s
Thesis: Revenue Model (contd..)
14
Growth
Expected
Growth
per Year
Impact to
ABCs
Revenue
Improved Pool
Construction
9% +3.7%
Growth in Seasonal
Growth
4% +1.6%
Pool Maintenance 5.5% +2.8%
Acquisition Growth 2.5% +1.7%
Total Revenue
Growth
+9.8%
Implied Earnings
Growth
+16.9%
Acquisition strategy growth impact assumptions
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2018
(Q1 -
Q3)
Base business
(organic) sales
growth rates
-1.0% -9.0%
-1
5.0%
2.0% 10.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.1%
Total sales growth 1.0% -7.5% -13.7% 4.8% 11.1% 9.0% 6.4% 6.5%
Implied acquired
sales growth
2.0 1.5% 1.3% 2.8% 1.1% 2.0% 0.4% 1.4%
Average acquired
annual sales
growth
1.6% <Management has not indicated any change in acquisition strategy
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Thesis: Revenue Model (contd..)
15
Seasonal market sales growth 1.5
Year round market sales growth 10.7%
2016 Revenue 1,954
2017 Revenue 2,080
Revenue from seasonal markets 903
Revenue from year round markets 1,051
2018 Seasonal market growth 5.0%
2018 Year round market growth 8.0%
2018E revenue 2,236
2018 Weather impact -29
2018 Weather normalized sales 2,266
Survey Data
%
response
Bucket LB Bucket UB Avg
4.50% 10% inf 12%
22.70% 5% 10% 8%
22.70% 1% 4% 3%
31.80% 0% 0% 0%
13.60% -1% -1% -3%
Total 95.30%
Non disc impl grw 2.93%
Sales Growth
Above
Gd
Below
Gd
2010 -5.1% 1.4%
2011 -12.0% -8.1%
2012 12.2 -11.8%
2013 -58.1% -27.8%
2014 5.6% 9.2%
2015 -3.5% 9.2%
2016 -3.5% 10.3%
Discretionary business growth
rate
6.0% 6.8% 7.0% 7.5% 8.0% 8.5% 9.0% 9.5% 8.0% 6.5% 5.0% 3.5% 2.0% 2.0%
Non discretionary business
growth rate
3.0% 2.6% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Base business growth rate 10.0% 7.0% 6.5% 5.5% 5.9% 6.4% 6.6% 6.8% 5.9% 5.0% 4.1% 3.2% 2.6% 2.6%
Acquisition growth impact 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%
Weather
Adjustmen
t
1.3%
Total sales growth 11.0% 9.0% 6.5% 7.5% 8.8% 8.0% 8.2% 8.4% 7.5% 6.6% 5.7% 4.8% 4.2% 4.2%
Sales 1,793 1,954 2,080 2,236 2,465 2,662 2,880 3,122 3,357 3,578 3,782 3,964 4,130 4,304
Consesns 2,389
%Diff 3.2%
2015A 2016A 2028A2027A2026A2025A2024A2023A2022A2021A2020A2019A2018A2017A
Non discretionary growth estimates Discretionary business growth estimates Weather Adjustments
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Thesis: Free Cash Flow Model Summary
16
Scenario
Price
Target
Implied
Upside
Implied
EV/
EBITDA
Baseline $80.32 +34% 19.3x
Bull $97.65 +61% 22.9x
Bear $56.31 -9% 13.8x
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Historic ABC TTM EV/ EBITDA Multiple
LT avg: 12.4x (12x
baseline used as
terminal multiple)
Bull case $97.65 = 22.9x TTM EV/ EBITDA
Baseline $80.32 = 19.3x TTM EV/ EBITDA
Baseline scenario results in implied EV/EBITDA near high end of historic range
which we believe is justified given where we are in the current pool cycle
The bull case results in an EV/EBITDA well above historic highs, but could be
justified if housing starts return to historic average levels
The bear case is a very conservative estimate where sales, margins and operating
leverage suffer but ABC’s share decline is only a modest -9%
Bear case $56.31
13.8x TTM EV/ EBITDA
This graph/chart is linked to excel, and changes automatically based on data. Just left click on it and select “Edit Data”.
Thesis: Free Cash Flow Model Summary (contd..)
17
Cash flow from Operations 127.3 144.3 162.1 189.8 224.5 253.9 280.5 305.7 327.9 347.1
(+) Interest expense a after tax 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.6
(-) Cash flow from investing in
PPE
-32.0 -35.4 -40.9 -45.7 -53.2 -59.7 -64.8 -74.0 -74.3 -80.7
(-) Acquisition, net of cash
acquired
-4.8 -8.4 -8.4 -9.9 -12.6 -15.2 -16.8 -17.8 -18.4 -19.7
Free Cash Flow 95.1 105.3 118.9 137.6 163.7 184.2 202.3 212.4 240.7 252.3
Present Value of FCF 87.8 89.7 92.5 99.8 109.6 113.8 115.4 115.4 116.9 113.1
Total PV FCF (Years 1 – 10) 1,054
Terminal value (12x EV/ EBITDA 2028E 3,103
Implied enterprise value 4,157
Less: current debt -391
Plus: cash 14.5
Implied equity value 3,780
Fully diluted shares outstanding 47.5
Implied price per share $80.32
Implied upside (current price = 59.46) 33.8%
Price Terminal EV/ EBITDA Multiple
WACC
10.0x 11.0x 12.0x 13.0x 14.0x
6.85% $78.67 $84.93 $91.18 $97.44 $103.69
7.35% $75.17 $81.14 $87.11 $93.08 $99.05
7.85% $71.83 $77.53 $83.23 $88.93 $94.63
8.35% $68.66 $74.10 $80.32 $84.98 $90.42
8.85% $65.63 $70.82 $76.02 $81.21 $86.41
9.35% $62.74 $67.70 $72.67 $77.63 $82.59
9.85% $59.99 $64.73 $69.47 $74.21 $78.96
Dec 19 Dec 28Dec 27Dec 26Dec 25Dec 24Dec 23Dec 22Dec 21Dec 20
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Risk Mitigation Plan
18
Risk Mitigation
Pool Products are focused by Mass Retailer
ABC carries 170,000 products, which decreases the
attractiveness for a retailer to try to carry a much broader
range of SKUs. Only 17% of small retailers viewed Mass
Retailers as a top risk to their business
Regional distributor expansion
ABC has a history of nationwide distribution; a competitor
will be reluctant to potentially engage in a pricing war with
ABC.
Pool construction may continue to lag
For inground pool construction we are currently at cycle
lows.
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19
Additional Slides
About Us
20
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Target Audience
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Premium Services
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Values Client
Our Team
21
01.
Name Here
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audience's attention.
Designation
02.
Name Here
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it to your needs and capture your
audience's attention.
Designation
03.
Name Here
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audience's attention.
Designation
04.
Name Here
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Designation
Financial
22
$234 $422
30% 50%
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01 02 03 04
Our Target
23
04
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03
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Venn
24
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01 02
03
04
Idea Generation
25
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Thank You
26
Address:
# Street number, city, state
Contact Numbers:
0123456789
Email Address:
emailaddress123@gmail.com

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Stock Pitch For Swimming Pool Equipments PowerPoint Presentation Ppt Slide Template

  • 1. For Swimming Pool Equipment's Company: ABC Corp. Action: Long Current Price: $60.24 Target Price: $80.32 (33% upside) STOCK PITCH
  • 2. Heaters, Pumps, Filters, Accessories Other Lighting, Electrical & Plumbing Parts Maintenance & Equipment Pool Construction Materials Chemicals 12% 13% 16% 19% 22% 10% 8% US Pool Sales Breakdown About the Company 2 Value Chain 2,300Industry Vendor (Suppliers) › Major influence on customer product solution › Product training › Local service › Product promotions › Supply chain management › Inventory management › EPA certification ABCCORP › Product availability › Credit › Sakes/marketing programs › Business training › Technical support › Warranty service › Specialty Tools › Value oriented O/S sales force 82,000Dealers This graph/chart is linked to excel, and changes automatically based on data. Just left click on it and select “Edit Data”. 6% 10% 84% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% ABC’s Business Segments US Pool Products International Pool Products Landscape/ irrigation
  • 3. Expense Type Types of Products Sold Non – Discretionary Parts, Pumps, Filters, Hearers, Lights Non – Discretionary Pool Equipment & Components Some Discretionary Cleaners, Chemicals & other Maintenance items Discretionary Pool Equipment & Components; Concrete, Plumbing & Electrical Components About the Company (contd..) 3 12% 29% 27% 32% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Sales Breakdown Minor Service & Repair Replacement & Refurbishment Specialty Retail Pool Construction While Pool Construction is only 12% of sales, as the installed pool base increases growth in construction will grow non-discretionary cash flows This graph/chart is linked to excel, and changes automatically based on data. Just left click on it and select “Edit Data”.
  • 4. Industry Overview 4 230 85 55 55 0 50 100 150 200 250 ABC CORP Top 52 Competitors Combind # of Sales Center Distributors 1 - 5 center Distributors 6 - 10 center Distributors with 10+ Centers ABC is larger than the top 52 competitors combined This graph/chart is linked to excel, and changes automatically based on data. Just left click on it and select “Edit Data”.
  • 5. Rebounding housing starts will provide a tailwind for Pool Construction Thesis: Pent-Up Demand 5 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 Housing Starts vs. In ground Pool Construction Inground Pool Sales (right Axis) Housing Starts (Left Axis) This graph/chart is linked to excel, and changes automatically based on data. Just left click on it and select “Edit Data”.
  • 6. Thesis: Migration Trends 6 Diversified Market › California › Florida › Texas › The South › Southwest Non-Seasonal Markets › Mid Atlantic › Mid West › Northeast › Northwest Seasonal Markets South Northwest Mid Atlantic Midwest Midwest Arizona Texas FL CA Nevada Rocky Mountain Text Here Text Here ABC’s sales are focused in California, Florida, Texas and the South This graph/chart is linked to excel, and changes automatically based on data. Just left click on it and select “Edit Data”. 70 30 20 10 8 9 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 1
  • 7. Thesis: Weather 7 85 72 108 80 75 89 77 77 48 59 75 59 25 36 37 35 33 21 26 23 18 32 25 29 49 32 36 104 20 22 43 40 70 78 83 90 48 68 106 103 98 100 95 106 88 99 State-wide Temperature Ranks January December 2017 State-wide Ranks National Climatic Data Centre/ NESDIS/NOAA Record Coldest Much Below Normal Below Normal Near Normal Above Normal Much Above Normal Record Warmest 1 = Coldest 119 = Warmest Temperature Impacts on ABC Corp In seasonal areas, weather has large impact on pool use and pool construction to a lesser extent Over the last two years, in many states the temperature has been below historical norms The weather has negatively impacted industry growth the last two years This slide is 100% editable. Adapt it to your needs and capture your audience's attention.
  • 8. Thesis: Advantages Over Competitors 8 ABC has had higher profitability ratios and margins 17.4% 12.2% 10.3% 9.5% 5.9% 5.9% 5.1% 3.3% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% ABC Corp Comp 1 Comp 2 Comp 3 Comp 4 Comp 5 Comp 6 Comp 7 Return on Invested Capital 36.7% 15.4% 15.0% 14.9% 14.7% 13.3% 7.5% 5.1% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% ABC Corp Comp 3 Comp 7 Comp 2 Comp 1 Comp 5 Comp 4 Comp 6 Return on Equity 12.4% 9.1% 7.7% 6.4% 4.7% 3.9% 2.8% 2.7% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% ABC Corp Comp 1 Comp 3 Comp 2 Comp 5 Comp 4 Comp 6 Comp 7 Return on Assets 14.6% 12.8% 9.4% 8.9% 8.5% 8.2% 7.0% 5.4% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% Comp 5 Comp 3 ABC Corp Comp 1 Comp 2 Comp 7 Comp 4 Comp 6 EBITA Margins This graph/chart is linked to excel, and changes automatically based on data. Just left click on it and select “Edit Data”.
  • 9. 0% 6% 5% 10% 12%8% 25% 28% 30% 31% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Return on Equity Comp Avg ABC 0% 5% 6% 7% 8%7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 EBITDA Margins Comp Avg ABC Thesis: Advantages Over Competitors (contd..) 9 0% 5% 4% 8% 9% 4% 13% 14% 16% 19% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Return on Invested Capital Comp Avg ABC 0% 4% 5% 5% 6% 3% 8% 10% 11% 19% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Return on Assets Comp Avg ABC This graph/chart is linked to excel, and changes automatically based on data. Just left click on it and select “Edit Data”.
  • 10. Thesis: Advantages Over Competitors (contd..) 10 100 120 100 170 220 250 100 98 140 200 240 250 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Oct - 13 Oct - 14 Oct - 15 Oct - 16 Oct - 17 Oct - 18 Five Year Total Shareholder Return Index Comp Avg ABC In Line In Line Name Market Cap EV Div Yield 1yr Sales Gr ROA ROE ROIC P/E EV/ EBITDA ABC 2,582.1 2,964.5 1.26% 8.1% 12.4% 36.7% 17.4% 24.98x 14.93x Comp Average 3,842.4 5,348.9 0.59% 13.7% 5.3% 12.3% 7.4% 24.15x 18.07x Comp Median 2,020.3 3,812.8 0.45% 6.7% 4.7% 14.7% 5.9% 23.56x 13.72x Comp 4 1,408.4 1,697.4 0.00% 6.0% 3.9% 7.5% 5.9% 25.04x 12.58x Comp 3 8,782.0 10435.4 0.00% 32.4% 7.7% 15.4%% 9.5% 23.56x 13.58x Comp 2 3,555.7 4,179.3 1.20% 6.1% 6.4% 14.9% 10.3% 26.09x 13.72x Comp 7 1,563.5 3,812.8 0.57% 2.7% 2.7% 15.0% 3.3% 17.03x 27.52x Comp 6 478.2 567.4 0.00% 2.8% 2.8% 5.1% 5.1% 40.94x 31.96x Comp 5 9,089.1 14,457.8 0.45% 4.7% 4.7% 13.3% 5.9% 18.55x 15.91x Comp 1 2,020.3 2,292.5 1.89% 9.1% 9.1% 14.7% 12.2% 17.86x 11.21x This graph/chart is linked to excel, and changes automatically based on data. Just left click on it and select “Edit Data”.
  • 11. Thesis: Advantages Over Competitors (contd..) 11 Total Cylical/ Pool Construction Annunity/ Pool Maintenance 2019E EBITA ($MM) $225.60 90.24 135.36 EV/ EBITDA 16.00x 13.00x EV $3,203.52 $1,443.84 $1,759.68 Less: Debt -391.10 - - Plus: Cash 14.46 - - Equity Value 2826.88 - - Diluted Sh. out 47.53 - - Implied P/ sh 60.26 - - Current Price 60.24 - - Implied Upside $0.02 (3bps!) - - Based on market estimates, ABC seems to be fairly valued This graph/chart is linked to excel, and changes automatically based on data. Just left click on it and select “Edit Data”.
  • 12. Thesis: Revenue Model 12 1600 1700 1300 1500 1600 1800 1600 1500 1700 1800 1400 1500 1200 1400 1500 1800 1500 1500 1600 1800 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Estimated Revenue Actual Estimated 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Estimated Segment Revenue from Installied Base New Construction ABC does not break out their sales by segment To estimate segment specific growth, we created a regression model with two industry variables › Industry Pool Construction › Installed Pool Base This model fits well and was intuitive, which gave us confidence in modeling these segments going forward This graph/chart is linked to excel, and changes automatically based on data. Just left click on it and select “Edit Data”.
  • 13. Thesis: Revenue Model (contd..) 13 Scenario Key Assumptions All Scenarios › Gross margin of 29%, inline with recent cycle averages › Improvement to seasonal markets growth in 2019 due to weather (assumed average) Baseline › Housing starts & resulting pool growth on a conservative trend › Installed pools grow at 3% after starts hit 30 year average in 2027 Bull › Pent up demand causes acceleration of housing rebound › Starts grows 16% until hitting 30 year average in 2020 › Installed pools grow at 5% thereafter Bear › Housing starts & resulting pool growth flat › Assumed margins fall to 10 year low 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Housing Start Projections Bull Base Bear 30 Yr Average 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 Installed Pool Base Market Bear Base Bull This graph/chart is linked to excel, and changes automatically based on data. Just left click on it and select “Edit Data”. MM 000s
  • 14. Thesis: Revenue Model (contd..) 14 Growth Expected Growth per Year Impact to ABCs Revenue Improved Pool Construction 9% +3.7% Growth in Seasonal Growth 4% +1.6% Pool Maintenance 5.5% +2.8% Acquisition Growth 2.5% +1.7% Total Revenue Growth +9.8% Implied Earnings Growth +16.9% Acquisition strategy growth impact assumptions 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (Q1 - Q3) Base business (organic) sales growth rates -1.0% -9.0% -1 5.0% 2.0% 10.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.1% Total sales growth 1.0% -7.5% -13.7% 4.8% 11.1% 9.0% 6.4% 6.5% Implied acquired sales growth 2.0 1.5% 1.3% 2.8% 1.1% 2.0% 0.4% 1.4% Average acquired annual sales growth 1.6% <Management has not indicated any change in acquisition strategy This slide is 100% editable. Adapt it to your needs and capture your audience's attention.
  • 15. Thesis: Revenue Model (contd..) 15 Seasonal market sales growth 1.5 Year round market sales growth 10.7% 2016 Revenue 1,954 2017 Revenue 2,080 Revenue from seasonal markets 903 Revenue from year round markets 1,051 2018 Seasonal market growth 5.0% 2018 Year round market growth 8.0% 2018E revenue 2,236 2018 Weather impact -29 2018 Weather normalized sales 2,266 Survey Data % response Bucket LB Bucket UB Avg 4.50% 10% inf 12% 22.70% 5% 10% 8% 22.70% 1% 4% 3% 31.80% 0% 0% 0% 13.60% -1% -1% -3% Total 95.30% Non disc impl grw 2.93% Sales Growth Above Gd Below Gd 2010 -5.1% 1.4% 2011 -12.0% -8.1% 2012 12.2 -11.8% 2013 -58.1% -27.8% 2014 5.6% 9.2% 2015 -3.5% 9.2% 2016 -3.5% 10.3% Discretionary business growth rate 6.0% 6.8% 7.0% 7.5% 8.0% 8.5% 9.0% 9.5% 8.0% 6.5% 5.0% 3.5% 2.0% 2.0% Non discretionary business growth rate 3.0% 2.6% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Base business growth rate 10.0% 7.0% 6.5% 5.5% 5.9% 6.4% 6.6% 6.8% 5.9% 5.0% 4.1% 3.2% 2.6% 2.6% Acquisition growth impact 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% Weather Adjustmen t 1.3% Total sales growth 11.0% 9.0% 6.5% 7.5% 8.8% 8.0% 8.2% 8.4% 7.5% 6.6% 5.7% 4.8% 4.2% 4.2% Sales 1,793 1,954 2,080 2,236 2,465 2,662 2,880 3,122 3,357 3,578 3,782 3,964 4,130 4,304 Consesns 2,389 %Diff 3.2% 2015A 2016A 2028A2027A2026A2025A2024A2023A2022A2021A2020A2019A2018A2017A Non discretionary growth estimates Discretionary business growth estimates Weather Adjustments This graph/chart is linked to excel, and changes automatically based on data. Just left click on it and select “Edit Data”.
  • 16. Thesis: Free Cash Flow Model Summary 16 Scenario Price Target Implied Upside Implied EV/ EBITDA Baseline $80.32 +34% 19.3x Bull $97.65 +61% 22.9x Bear $56.31 -9% 13.8x 0 5 10 15 20 25 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Historic ABC TTM EV/ EBITDA Multiple LT avg: 12.4x (12x baseline used as terminal multiple) Bull case $97.65 = 22.9x TTM EV/ EBITDA Baseline $80.32 = 19.3x TTM EV/ EBITDA Baseline scenario results in implied EV/EBITDA near high end of historic range which we believe is justified given where we are in the current pool cycle The bull case results in an EV/EBITDA well above historic highs, but could be justified if housing starts return to historic average levels The bear case is a very conservative estimate where sales, margins and operating leverage suffer but ABC’s share decline is only a modest -9% Bear case $56.31 13.8x TTM EV/ EBITDA This graph/chart is linked to excel, and changes automatically based on data. Just left click on it and select “Edit Data”.
  • 17. Thesis: Free Cash Flow Model Summary (contd..) 17 Cash flow from Operations 127.3 144.3 162.1 189.8 224.5 253.9 280.5 305.7 327.9 347.1 (+) Interest expense a after tax 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.6 (-) Cash flow from investing in PPE -32.0 -35.4 -40.9 -45.7 -53.2 -59.7 -64.8 -74.0 -74.3 -80.7 (-) Acquisition, net of cash acquired -4.8 -8.4 -8.4 -9.9 -12.6 -15.2 -16.8 -17.8 -18.4 -19.7 Free Cash Flow 95.1 105.3 118.9 137.6 163.7 184.2 202.3 212.4 240.7 252.3 Present Value of FCF 87.8 89.7 92.5 99.8 109.6 113.8 115.4 115.4 116.9 113.1 Total PV FCF (Years 1 – 10) 1,054 Terminal value (12x EV/ EBITDA 2028E 3,103 Implied enterprise value 4,157 Less: current debt -391 Plus: cash 14.5 Implied equity value 3,780 Fully diluted shares outstanding 47.5 Implied price per share $80.32 Implied upside (current price = 59.46) 33.8% Price Terminal EV/ EBITDA Multiple WACC 10.0x 11.0x 12.0x 13.0x 14.0x 6.85% $78.67 $84.93 $91.18 $97.44 $103.69 7.35% $75.17 $81.14 $87.11 $93.08 $99.05 7.85% $71.83 $77.53 $83.23 $88.93 $94.63 8.35% $68.66 $74.10 $80.32 $84.98 $90.42 8.85% $65.63 $70.82 $76.02 $81.21 $86.41 9.35% $62.74 $67.70 $72.67 $77.63 $82.59 9.85% $59.99 $64.73 $69.47 $74.21 $78.96 Dec 19 Dec 28Dec 27Dec 26Dec 25Dec 24Dec 23Dec 22Dec 21Dec 20 This slide is 100% editable. Adapt it to your needs and capture your audience's attention.
  • 18. Risk Mitigation Plan 18 Risk Mitigation Pool Products are focused by Mass Retailer ABC carries 170,000 products, which decreases the attractiveness for a retailer to try to carry a much broader range of SKUs. Only 17% of small retailers viewed Mass Retailers as a top risk to their business Regional distributor expansion ABC has a history of nationwide distribution; a competitor will be reluctant to potentially engage in a pricing war with ABC. Pool construction may continue to lag For inground pool construction we are currently at cycle lows. This slide is 100% editable. Adapt it to your needs and capture your audience's attention.
  • 20. About Us 20 This slide is 100% editable. Adapt it to your needs and capture your audience's attention. Target Audience This slide is 100% editable. Adapt it to your needs and capture your audience's attention. Premium Services This slide is 100% editable. Adapt it to your needs and capture your audience's attention. Values Client
  • 21. Our Team 21 01. Name Here This slide is 100% editable. Adapt it to your needs and capture your audience's attention. Designation 02. Name Here This slide is 100% editable. Adapt it to your needs and capture your audience's attention. Designation 03. Name Here This slide is 100% editable. Adapt it to your needs and capture your audience's attention. Designation 04. Name Here This slide is 100% editable. Adapt it to your needs and capture your audience's attention. Designation
  • 22. Financial 22 $234 $422 30% 50% This slide is 100% editable. Adapt it to your needs and capture your audience's attention. Text Here This slide is 100% editable. Adapt it to your needs and capture your audience's attention. Text Here This slide is 100% editable. Adapt it to your needs and capture your audience's attention. Text Here This slide is 100% editable. Adapt it to your needs and capture your audience's attention. Text Here 01 02 03 04
  • 23. Our Target 23 04 This slide is 100% editable. Adapt it to your needs and capture your audience's attention. Text Here 03 This slide is 100% editable. Adapt it to your needs and capture your audience's attention. Text Here 02 This slide is 100% editable. Adapt it to your needs and capture your audience's attention. Text Here 01 This slide is 100% editable. Adapt it to your needs and capture your audience's attention. Text Here
  • 24. Venn 24 This slide is 100% editable. Adapt it to your needs and capture your audience's attention. This slide is 100% editable. Adapt it to your needs and capture your audience's attention. This slide is 100% editable. Adapt it to your needs and capture your audience's attention. This slide is 100% editable. Adapt it to your needs and capture your audience's attention. This slide is 100% editable. Adapt it to your needs and capture your audience's attention. 01 02 03 04
  • 25. Idea Generation 25 This slide is 100% editable. Adapt it to your needs and capture your audience's attention. Text Here This slide is 100% editable. Adapt it to your needs and capture your audience's attention. Text Here This slide is 100% editable. Adapt it to your needs and capture your audience's attention. Text Here
  • 26. Thank You 26 Address: # Street number, city, state Contact Numbers: 0123456789 Email Address: emailaddress123@gmail.com