This document provides an overview of population trends in Australia and Victoria, with a focus on how COVID-19 has impacted migration patterns and population growth. It notes that Australia's population growth was just 0.2% in 2020-21, the lowest in over a century, due to border closures reducing net overseas migration. Victoria saw its first population decline in over 100 years, with declines in both interstate and overseas migration. The document then discusses the importance of population data and forecasts for community infrastructure planning, providing the example of planning a new library for Niddrie.

1. POPULATION TRENDS, COVID-19 AND
COMMUNITY INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING
SIMONE ALEXANDER
MAY 2022

2. PRESENTATION OUTLINE
 Introduction
 Population trends
 Estimated Resident Population (ERP) and Census
 Australia
 States and territories (focussing on Victoria)
 Melbourne and regional Victoria
 Population forecasts
 What are they?
 Impact of COVID-19
 Overcoming uncertainty
 Community infrastructure planning
 Use of population data
 Niddrie Library example
 Resources, questions and contact details

3. WHAT IS THE POPULATION?
 Estimated Resident Population (ERP) is the official measure of
population
 Released quarterly for Australia, states and territories
 Released annually for smaller geographies
 Census of Population and Housing
 Conducted every 5 years
 Socio-economic characteristics of the population eg birthplace, language
 Small area data

4. POPULATION OF AUSTRALIA, 1901-2021
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, National, State and Territory
Population
Australian Historical Population
Population at June 2021 was 25.74 million,
an increase of 0.2% (44, 875) over the
previous year.
The lowest population growth since 1917.
This comes after several years of rapid
growth, driven by net overseas migration
(averaged 1.5% over the five years prior).
Major implications for planning, housing
and service demand.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Population
(millions)
Year ended June

5. COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE – AUSTRALIA
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Persons
Year ended June
Natural increase
Net overseas migration
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, National, State and Territory
Population
Shows how the population changes:
 Natural increase (births minus
deaths)
 Net overseas migration (NOM)
 Closure of the international border
had an immediate impact on
overseas migration
 NOM was -90,000 in 2020-21
 First negative NOM since WW1

6. OVERSEAS MIGRATION TRENDS BY STATE – 2020-21
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, National, State and Territory
Population
All states and territories recorded
more departures than arrivals.
Total NOM loss for Australia was
almost 90,000.
NOM loss from Victoria was -56,130,
compared to a gain of 60,600 the
previous year.
NSW recorded the largest proportion
of arrivals in 2020-21.
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
New South
Wales
Victoria Queensland South
Australia
Western
Australia
Tasmania Northern
Territory
Australian
Capital
Territory
Persons
Overseas arrivals
Overseas departures

7. INTERSTATE MIGRATION TRENDS BY STATE – 2020-21
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, National, State and Territory
Population
NSW and Victoria recorded a net loss
of people to other states and
territories.
Long standing trend in NSW, but
reversal of recent trends in Victoria.
Queensland has always gained
population via interstate migration,
but in 2020-21 the net gain
increased to more than 31,000
people.
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
New South
Wales
Victoria Queensland South
Australia
Western
Australia
Tasmania Northern
Territory
Australian
Capital
Territory
Persons
Interstate arrivals
Interstate departures

8. AGE STRUCTURE, AUSTRALIA – 2010 AND 2020
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Regional Population by age and
sex
Age structure is critical for understanding how
the population will change in the future –
 Inbuilt momentum
 Ageing of the population, especially the
baby boomer cohort
 Overseas migrants are younger than the
total population
 Increase in birth numbers, but not the
fertility rate
Also critical for service planning, as many are
related to age eg schools, kindergartens,
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
Population
(millions)
Age
201
0

9. POPULATION OF VICTORIA, 1901-2021
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, National, State and Territory
Population
Australian Historical Population
Population at June 2021 was 6.65 million,
a decrease of -0.7% (44,970) over the
previous year.
The lowest population growth since 1917.
This comes after several years of rapid
growth, driven by net overseas migration
(averaged 2.1% over the five years prior).
Rapid population growth presents
challenges, but so too does population
decline.
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
Population
Year ended June

10. COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE – VICTORIA
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, National, State and Territory
Population
For states and territories, net interstate
migration is the other component of
change.
In Victoria, population growth has been
strong since the mid 2000s, driven by
high volumes of overseas migration, and
to a lesser extent, net interstate
migration.
This changed in 2020.
Victoria’s population decline driven by
migration loss, both interstate and
overseas. Natural increase also declining.
-80,000
-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
Persons
Year (ended June)
Natural increase
Net overseas migration
Net interstate migration

11. POPULATION CHANGE – MELBOURNE AND REGIONAL VICTORIA
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
Population
change
Year ended June
Greater Melbourne
Rest of Victoria
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Regional Population
In 2020-21 the population of
Greater Melbourne declined by
more than 60,000 people (-1.2%)
At the same time, Regional
Victoria’s population increased by
1.0%.
The last time Melbourne’s
population declined was in the
early 1930s.

12. POPULATION CHANGE IS NOT UNIFORM
Not all parts of Victoria recorded
population decline in 2020-21.
The strongest growth rates were
recorded on Melbourne’s fringe
(growth areas) and in peri-urban areas,
particularly within Melbourne’s
economic catchment.
Most LGAs in Melbourne recorded
population decline, particularly inner
city areas. Large parts of western
Victoria also declined in population.

13. MOST PARTS OF MELBOURNE LOST POPULATION
Most LGAs in Melbourne recorded
population decline, particularly inner
city areas.
This is because overseas migration is
a major driver of population growth.
Outer suburban areas recorded
modest to strong growth eg Melton,
Wyndham.
This is because internal migration
and natural increase are more
important drivers of population
change.

14. KEY TRENDS
 Australia
 After many years of strong population growth, the volume and rate of change in
2020-21 was very modest (0.2%). Closure of the international border, resulting in
NOM loss, was the key factor.
 Victoria
 Major impacts, primarily via a reversal of migration trends (overseas and
interstate). Population change was -0.7%, the first decline in a century
 The population of Greater Melbourne declined by -1.2%, but the population of
regional Victoria increased by 1.0%.
 The impacts of population change are uneven

15. POPULATION FORECASTS
 Population forecasts are not targets or predictions – they are modelled outcomes of
assumptions about the future direction of the components of population change
 Eg level of migration, number of births and deaths
 “top down” versus “bottom up” approaches
 Dwelling and household assumptions become more important for smaller geographies
 Data challenges
 Timeliness, especially household types (only available via Census)
 Building approvals vs building completions
 Data is critical for a range of planning purposes
 Community infrastructure planning, housing strategies

16. POPULATION FORECASTS
 Produced by State Governments, ABS, and the private sector
 Victoria in Future (VIF) is the official population forecasts
 Produced by the Dept of Environment, Water, Land and Planning (DEWLP_
 Available for LGAs (potentially SA2s)
 Age, sex, dwellings and households
 .id the population experts and REMPLAN are private sector consultants who products
forecasts for Councils across Australia
 Subscription basis
 Available for suburbs, neighbourhoods, custom defined areas
 Age, sex, dwellings and households

17. POPULATION FORECASTS
 Just as population growth is uneven, so
too is the pattern of future growth.
 Urban Development Program data shows
that most new dwellings are planned for
the urban fringe, with some
redevelopment sites in established areas
 Location of new dwellings and households
is a critical driver for population growth,
especially for small area forecasting
Urban Development Program

18. IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON POPULATION FORECASTS
Source: University of Queensland,,
https://research.uq.edu.au/article/2020/08/14-million-less-projected-how-
coronavirus-could-hit-australia%E2%80%99s-population-next-20-years
 Key impacts –
 Total population size
 Overseas migration
 Commonwealth Treasury assumes NOM will
slowly return to pre-COVID levels over the next
few years, reaching NOM of 235,000 p.a. by
2024-25
 Age structure, particularly young adults and
children
 Key questions –
 Are the new demographic trends temporary?
 How long will pandemic impacts last?
 2021 Census will provide some insights

19. OVERCOMING THE UNCERTAINTY
 The reality is that forecasts are still required for planning purposes
 COVID-19 has produced a high degree of uncertainty, but
 Migration is highly volatile at the best of times
 Fertility rates tend to decline in times of social and economic uncertainty
 Impact of COVID on death rates still evolving
 There are ways to overcome this -
 Be conservative in times of uncertainty
 Not all areas have been impacted by COVID-19 – understand the drivers of population change
 More regular updates eg annually
 Producing scenarios
 Using 2020 as a base, rather than 2021
 Transparency of assumptions

20. COMMUNITY INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING
 Community infrastructure includes early years facilities (MCH, kindergartens,
libraries, pavilions, arts and culture facilities and multipurpose spaces. Council across
Victoria provide these services to their communities.
 Planning for these services involves consideration of –
 Current and forecast population, including the age structure
 Current levels of service provision – what, where and how much
 Provision standards
 Service catchments eg neighbourhood, regional
 Building condition and fit for purpose assessment

21. WHAT, HOW MUCH AND WHERE?
Measures based on geographic units eg suburbs or neighbourhoods
Source: Hobsons Bay City Council, Community Services and
Infrastructure Plan 2020-30
 Advantages –
 Easy to measure as data is readily
available
 Users understand the geography
 Disadvantages –
 Uneven population distribution skews
analysis
 Assumes people don’t access services
outside their suburb
 Doesn’t account for preference or
accessibility

22. WHAT, HOW MUCH AND WHERE?
Measures based on catchments
Source: Moonee Valley City Council, MV2040
(mv2040.mvcc.vic.gov.au)
 Advantages –
 Considers where people live in relation
to community infrastructure
 Aligns with current thinking re 20-
minute neighbourhoods
 Disadvantages –
 Data is not readily available, therefore
more resource intensive as it needs to
be customised

23. FORECAST POPULATION, MOONEE VALLEY – 2020 AND 2040
The population of Moonee Valley was
estimated to be 122,870 in 2020. This is
forecast to increase to 164,950 in 2040,
representing an increase of 25% or almost
31,000 people.
Growth is not uniform across Moonee
Valley, with stronger growth forecast in the
neighbourhoods of Keilor Road/Essendon
North, Moonee Ponds and Ascot Vale.
Source: REMPLAN, app.remplan.com.au/mooneevalley/forecast
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Population
Age
2020

24. COMMUNITY INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING EXAMPLE
Planning for a new library –
 Where are the current libraries?
 What is their size eg floor space, collection
 What is their condition?
 Demographics trends eg forecast population, household types, language spoken
 Other factors to consider
 Council priorities and advocacy
 Budget
 Capital works program
 What are other Councils doing

25. NIDDRIE LIBRARY
 Located on Keilor Road, a busy shopping strip
 Only library in the northern part of Moonee
Valley
 Current library is too small and population
growth will place added pressure on the
facility
 Opportunity to co-locate other services with
a new library
 Options for location are heavily constrained
by planning scheme and existing settlement
pattern
 This project is still in the planning phase

26. RESOURCES
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)
Key population releases:
National, state and territory population (quarterly)
Regional population growth (annual)
Regional population by age and sex (annual)
Census (every 5 years)
Centre for Population
Population forecasts
Victoria in Future (VIF)
REMPLAN
.id – the population experts