Sentient Science demonstrate it’s computational prognostics and life extension solution for the GE 1.5MW class gearbox with a discussion regarding up-tower component replacement options, impact of up-rating on gearbox life, and general failure rates off warranty.

1. DigitalClone Live® Demonstration of a 1.5MW
Class Gearbox Including Life Extension Options

2. Edward Wagner
Chief Digital Officer
ewagner@sentientscience.com
781.929.9295
Presenter
DigitalClone Demo of a 1.5MW Gearbox

3. What If You Had More Time?
DigitalClone Demo of a 1.5MW Gearbox

4. DigitalClone Demo of a 1.5MW Gearbox
Sentient Science Funded $25M to by
Worlds Largest Operator
Uniquely built with operators – Trusted 3rd Party

5. New Prognostic Solution to Predict Failures
• Prognostics vs. Diagnostics
• Data Model versus Material Science Model - Compatible
• Calculates Remaining Useful Life (RUL) and Recommends Options to
Extend Life.
• Simulates “what if” scenarios to optimize performance.
• Enables efficient Asset Management.
• Reduces the Time and Cost of Physical Design Testing
DigitalClone Demo of a 1.5MW Gearbox

6. DigtialClone Live Technical Approach
DigitalClone Demo of a 1.5MW Gearbox

7. What Process does DigitalClone Replace?
• Create a multi-physics model to test the life and performance of a specific
component under sensitivity studies
• Build a digital model and then run simulations
• Manage by exception by only focusing on changes to predictions
• Software
VS.
Prognostics Diagnostics
NO CAPEX / $31,000
in development costs
$3.5M CAPEX / $323,000
in development costs
DigitalClone Demo of a 1.5MW Gearbox

8. DigitalClone Demo of a 1.5MW Gearbox
Extend the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) through Prognostics
What is the Business Problem to Solve?
What Would Could You Do With the Extra Time?
Diagnostics

9. 1. Ranking Fleet-wide GBX assets worst to best (“what’s not on your
watch list?”)
2. List of all GBX candidates for Up-tower component replacement –
critical component(s) list, new lifing predictions post replacement
and ROI
3. List of all GBX candidates for de-rating to extend GBX life,
calculated power levels and ROI
4. Per asset lifing predictions for any uprated GBX
5. Per Asset GBX “as-is” BOM and “to-be” simulated BOM stored in
Maximo/SAP
6. 5 year budgeting plan, based on data above, to estimate spend per
site
Business Benefit – More Time
DigitalClone Demo of a 1.5MW Gearbox

10. DigitalClone Demo of a 1.5MW Gearbox
Raja V. Pulikollu, PhD
Director, Implementations & Chief Materials Scientist

11. 1.5 MW Gearbox Prognostic Model
DigitalClone Demo of a 1.5MW Gearbox
• Turbine operational data, BOM,
geometry, and oil properties
were used to develop individual
gearbox prognostic model
• MBD system model was
created in Modelica that
translates forces from the hub
to the individual components
• Wind loads are being applied
on DigitalClone MBD system
model to calculate global
forces and life on individual
components
System Model
Multi-body Dynamics (MBD)
GBX Loads and Life
Forces and
Moments
Component
Loads and Life

12. DigitalClone Demo of a 1.5MW Gearbox
1.5 MW Fleet Failure Rate Predictions
Supplier Differentiation
Supplier 1
Supplier 2
Supplier 3
Supplier 4
5 years 10 years 15 years 20 years
• Sentient Science applied our
DigitalClone® prognostic modeling to
1.5 MW gearboxes
• DigitalClone predicts an increase in
O&M costs in the next 6 years
• Operators can take actions to reduce
this O&M cost increase with dynamic
models to enable turbine life extension
from:
• Optimizing Uptower Component
Replacements
• Gearbox Upgrades and Operational
Changes (Lubricants, Derate/Uprate)
• Major Component Long Lead Time
Planning
• Scheduled versus Unscheduled
Maintenance
• Evaluate New Gearbox and Components
Life Extension before Procurement

13. 1.5 MW Gearbox Critical Components List
DigitalClone Demo of a 1.5MW Gearbox
• The prognostic model showed most of the 1.5 MW wind turbine gearbox
failures are due to bearings:
• Planetary bearings
• Low Speed Intermediate Shaft (LSIS) bearings
• High Speed Shaft (HSS) bearings
• Secondary damage due to misalignment and bearing pitting/spalling are:
• Planetary Gear/Sun Gear
• Low Speed Shaft and Intermediate Gear
• High Speed Shaft (HSS) Pinion and Intermediate Speed Shaft
• Ring Gear
Gear teeth loss
Forces on Example Case Planet Carrier Bearing
Bearing Play

14. • DigitalClone provides list of turbines and critical components for
uptower replacement to extend gearbox life
• Predicts post replacement gearbox life and ROI
• Assists with replacement planning by ranking the turbines based on
most critical to least critical
Up-tower Component Replacement
DigitalClone Demo of a 1.5MW Gearbox

15. Life Extension Options
Derating Specific to Turbine Health State
DigitalClone Demo of a 1.5MW Gearbox
• Bearing damage (macro pitting / spalling)
• Bill of Materials (BOM), pictures & inspection records provided by operator
• Sentient recommended 20% De-rate (1.2 MW limit) with 2-3 month follow up
• RUL of 9 months at this recommendation Vs. Original RUL of 1 month
• Follow-up inspection performed – no damage progression after 3 months!

16. DigitalClone Demo of a 1.5MW Gearbox
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Max.FilletStress(MPa)
Curtailment (MW)
Gear Max. Fillet Stress (MPa) Vs. Curtailment (MW)
Radial Clearance = 6mm
Radial Clearance = 3mm
Radial Clearance = 0
Radial Clearance = 1.5mm
Endurance Limit, >10 years
(90% confidence bounds)
At no derate, the gearbox health will continue to degrade and may lead to catastrophic gear
tooth loss due to bearing play (radial clearance of 1.5 mm)
Based on the full gearbox analysis, it is recommended to derate turbine to 1.2 MW’s to avoid
catastrophic failure
Life Extension Options
Derating Specific to Turbine Health State
1.51.21.00.750
Healthy GBX
Damaged GBX

17. Case Study (Uprating) –
Failure Rate ↑4% / AEP ↑2%
DigitalClone Demo of a 1.5MW Gearbox
Real AEP2%
AEP -- ↑2%
Fail Rate -- --
NCF 36.1% 38.8%
20 Yr IRR 11.79% 12.14%
Annual DSCR 1.45 1.47
NPV (Life) ($653k) $436k
A modest 2% increase in AEP with right
technology fixes site performance

18. DigitalClone Demo of a 1.5MW Gearbox
Case Study (Uprating) -
Failure Rate ↑40% / AEP ↑5%
Real AEP5%
AEP -- ↑5%
Fail Rate -- ↑40%
NCF 36.1% 39.9%
20 Yr IRR 11.79% 11.80%
Annual DSCR 1.45 1.44
NPV (Life) ($653k) ($628k)
Overrating can cause little or no
financial benefit

19. 1.5 MW Main Bearing Life Extension
Sensitivity Analysis
DigitalClone Demo of a 1.5MW Gearbox
• DigitalClone recommends Superfinish and better oil to
improve Main Bearing fatigue performance
• Duty cycle predictions indicate that L10 fatigue life
will improve to 10 yrs. by changing to better oil, and
to 13.7 yrs. by implementing superfinish
3 Parameter Weibull Reliability Analysis
L10 Life L15 Life L17 Life
Conservative
Case
Best
Case
Conservative
Case
Best
Case
Conservative
Case
Best
Case
Baseline 7.6 yrs. >20 yrs. 15.5 yrs. >20 yrs >20 yrs >20 yrs
Super Bearing 18.4 yrs. >20 yrs. >20 yrs. >20 yrs. >20 yrs. >20 yrs.
Overall, L10 fatigue life improved by a factor of 2.42 for Sentient recommended bearing configuration

20. Fleet Life Assessment
“As Is” BOM and
loading Per Asset
DigitalClone
Asset RUL and
Life Extension
Options Per Asset
“As Is” BOM and
loading Per Asset“As Is” BOM and
loading Per Asset“As Is” BOM and
loading Per Asset
Asset RUL and
Life Extension
Options Per Asset
Asset RUL and
Life Extension
Options Per Asset
Asset RUL and
Life Extension
Options Per Asset
• Maximo/SAP
integration
• GBX/OEM
partnerships
• Libraries
• Scalable HPC Cloud
• Scalable simulators
• UI by fleet, site, asset
• Work-order
systems integration
• Inventory
management
integration (SAP)
• Fleet optimization
DigitalClone Demo of a 1.5MW Gearbox

21. DigitalClone Live UI
DigitalClone Demo of a 1.5MW Gearbox
Site 1
Site 2
Site 3
Site 4
Site 5
Site 6
Site 7
Site 8
Fleet 1

22. Fleet Worst to Best GBX Ranking
DigitalClone Demo of a 1.5MW Gearbox
Fleet 1
Site 2
Site 3
Site 4
Site 5
Site 6
Site 7
Site 8
Site 1

23. Individual Site Worst to Best Ranking
DigitalClone Demo of a 1.5MW Gearbox
Site 1
Site 2
Fleet 1

24. Individual Site Worst to Best Ranking
DigitalClone Demo of a 1.5MW Gearbox
Site 1
Site 2
Site 3
Site 4
Site 5

25. Individual GBX BOM Report (from “Maximo)
DigitalClone Demo of a 1.5MW Gearbox
Site 1
Site 2
Fleet 1
Note: Clipper GBX Example

26. GBX System Level Powerflow
(DigitalClone System/Modelica)
DigitalClone Demo of a 1.5MW Gearbox

27. GBX Subcomponent Assessment
DigitalClone Demo of a 1.5MW Gearbox
Note: Clipper GBX Example

28. Subcomponent Performance Report
DigitalClone Demo of a 1.5MW Gearbox

29. System ROI and Trade-off Studies
DigitalClone Demo of a 1.5MW Gearbox

30. Boroscope/Diagnostic Feedback to Update
Model and Predictions
DigitalClone Demo of a 1.5MW Gearbox

31. Fleet-wide Life Extension Recommendations
DigitalClone Demo of a 1.5MW Gearbox
Note:ClipperGBXExample

32. Challenge:
• Broadwind was seeking to quantify the effect of DriveMAX
enhancements on a European single stage planetary design
gearbox to help their customers calculate the value of ROI
Solution:
• Broadwind and Sentient Science developed DigitalClone
prognostics models of the planetary stage to determine the effect on
gearbox life due to DriveMAX® modifications under the same
severe Class 1 site operating conditions
1.5 MW Models Available for Suppliers
Broadwind Case Study
DigitalClone Demo of a 1.5MW Gearbox

33. DigitalClone Demo of a 1.5MW Gearbox
Results:
• Early failure were predicted on
the sun gear and planetary
bearing
• The DriveMax® upgrades
were shown to improve the
sun gear by a factor of 3x and
improve the planetary bearing
life by a factor of 1.65x
1.5 MW Models Available for Suppliers
Broadwind Case Study

34. Challenge
• AeroTorque was seeking to evaluate life
extension due to reducing overload and torque
events and preventing a white etch area
formation in a bearing
Solution
• AeroTorque chose DigitalClone modeling to
evaluate the impact of torque control on 1)
turbine hard stop events on gearbox bearing
loads and 2) bearing fatigue performance with
and without white etch area in the material
microstructure
Results
• Asymmetric Torque Control was shown to
reduce peak stresses in bearing by 10%. As a
result, life extension improved by up to factor
of 2x when the WEA formation was avoided
DigitalClone Demo of a 1.5MW Gearbox
Stress (S) – Life (N) curve for Downwind
CRB
1.5 MW Models Available for Suppliers
Aerotorque Case Study

35. DigitalClone Demo of a 1.5MW Gearbox
DigitalClone Live Integrated into a Smart Grid
O&M Optimization (cut O&M
5% - Revenue increase 4%)
Using Sentient DigitalClone
models
• Inspections
• Budgets – monthly to 20
year
• Optimized duty cycle
• Oil & bearing management
• Maintenance schedules
Inventory and Supply
Chain Optimization (Build
data at lower cost and
time)
• Big Data Analytics
• Maximo
• SAP
Fleet Process Optimization:
($10K reduction per asset)
• CBM-PHM –Industrial
Internet investment Cap-ex
reduction
• Sensor reduction
• Decision Data at lowest cost
• People optimization
• Asset Acquisition Support
• M&A Support
• Refinancing Support
O&M Aftermarket Life
Extension –& Super
Components Decisions
(O&M reductions of 10% -
revenue increase 6%)
OEM/Supplier SaaS
Test & Compare:
• Upgrades
• Repair, Reman, Replace
• Contract negotation

36. DigitalClone Demo of a 1.5MW Gearbox
DigitalClone Live for Apache ASTRO Demonstrator

37. DigitalClone Demo of a 1.5MW Gearbox
Product Design Example: Boeing
Next Generation Apache Drive Systems
Load
Case
Weibull,
Life/Eta
Weibull,
Slope
300 HP Run-out Run-out
1021 HP 5.14E+07 1.72
1379 HP 1.26E+07 3.32
2042 HP 7.49E+06 3.84
1731 HP 2.97E+06 4.28

38. Thank you!
DigitalClone Demo of a 1.5MW Gearbox